Petronas said in its Petronas Activity Outlook report that the need for jack-up rigs that is used in exploration activities had been reduced by half to about 10 rigs for the 2018-2020 period, compared to 20 from 2013-2014.
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/12/07/no-yearend-respite-for-og-firms/#C816HuBAzG8QaQlQ.99

Take a look at rigs or drilling market..
Umwog - 7 rigs, 100% fully utilised with little profit recorded.
Sapura E- 15 rigs with 5 rigs operation now. Rigs and drilling business will drag sapura to loss and could record impairment for rigs next yr.

Petronas reduced the rigs required fr 20 to 10 rigs for next 2 yrs.. drilling business for sapura is the main concern...

Kenanga very fierce... downgrade the share with target price adjusted from 1.55 to 0,82..

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/43359.jsp

sold back all Dayang due to Perdana distribution affecting the Dayang price downwards a lot.., Dayang price adjusted to RM 0.58 after distribution...

Khasera Baru Plans to Sell Up to $213 Million of Sapura Energy Shares

The bookbuilding range for the offer, which represents 605 million Sapura Energy shares, or a 10.1% stake in the firm, was between MYR1.42 and MYR1.49 a share, the term sheet showed.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/11/01/khasera-baru-plans-to-sell-up-to-213-million-sapura-energy-shares.html

Valuation for the Dayang no change after distribution of Perdana share which mean you will get the free Perdana share as dividend and Dayang remain current share price. Market will adjust upwards to factor in this windfall profit to shareholder once Perdana share listed. TAS just announced profitable quarter and Perdana & Dayang should be profitable for this quarter in the absence of write off and improved in OSV utilization.

As per 09 Aug 2017 General Meetings: Outcome of Meeting

Ordinary Resolution:
Proposed Distribution of up to
292,229,202 ordinary shares in
Perdana Petroleum Berhad
(“Perdana”) representing
approximately 37.5% equity interest in
Perdana, on the basis of
approximately 0.30 Perdana share for
each ordinary share held in Dayang to
the entitled shareholders of Dayang
by way of Dividend-In-Specie
(“Proposed Dividend-In-Specie).

Pending Bursa to approval to execute the distribution of Perdana shares....Can be anytime once Burse announced Approval.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5510793

Loaded some dayang and waiting to get some free perdana shares as dividend....

Ahead of Budget 2018, workers unions seek RM1,800 floor wage
If the minimum wage raise during budget 2018 announcement in Oct, it could increase the cost of Palm oil company. Monitor this news closely in budget 2018.


Read more at http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/ahead-of-budget-2018-workers-unions-seek-rm1800-floor-wage#o1cM3MEAVm04AhOZ.99

Armada need to wait for both armada fpso 100% charter rate before chiong. 
Q3 result may be with no suprise.. Q4 may be ok..

Bumi Armada may need to raise funds for African ventures

Based on the latest update, both armada kraken and armada Olombendo faced some technical issue and not 100% fully operation.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/05/bumi-armada-may-need-to-raise-funds-for-african-ventures/#oOe0Vdw8kJRqqzxe.99

Be nuetral for next year palm oil price but not too optimistic..
Palm oil demand expected to stagnate over the next year - Rabobank

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/palm-oil-demand-expected-stagnate-over-next-year-rabobank

Kraken field drag on enquest quarterly result..
Current kraken production below expectation due to fpso topside problem.

Expected to operate to produce 50k barrel per day. Current production 30k barrel per day.. expected only able to achieve 50k barrel per day in 1h 2018.

EnQuest has told Bumi Armada, the Malaysian company that built and rents out the FPSO vessel, that it would receive “significantly reduced rates” until all of the problems had been resolved. 

Bumi.armada will receive reduced charter rates fr kraken project this year. Based on current forecast full charter rate in 1H2018 if all working fine..

Impact : lower contribution fr armada kraken fpso due lower charter rate (not sure the % reduction)
Could have some impact to.this year earning. It depends on reduced charter rate agreed by both parties.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-enquest-results/enquest-profits-slide-on-slower-kraken-oilfield-ramp-up-idUKKCN1BI0OT

Emm.... those catch the falling feel the pain but get the gain later... Those who catch the falling knife of airasia, feel the pain first then gain later.. no pain no gain...

When coldeye recommended to buy Tunepro in Nov'16, everyone rushing to buy at RM 1.6+.. Now price only RM 1.0x, people scare to buy and hold. When price is expensive, everyone chasing, when price is cheap, no body dare to buy.....

Tunepro look cheap with 5.2 cent dividend, better than place money in FD. Loaded some tunepro shares today as FD.

When Datuk Zakaria Arshad joined as CEO for FGV he stopped all the nonsense acquisitions and improved the efficiency and focus more on core business.
With the absence of him, the losing money acquisition with huge capital and more nonsense spending activities could be back to old days... Datuk Zakaria help to push FGV from RM 1.3 + back RM 2 +... With absent of his leadership, hard for Investment banks to justify for higher price since the FGV turn around plan has been jeopardize...Fundamental of company could changed and current situation only good for trading not hold for fundamental...

CIMB Research cuts FGV to Reduce, lowers target to RM1.45

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cimb-research-cuts-fgv-reduce-lowers-target-rm145

I spent a lit bit time to digest the Jtiasa latest Q result...

Palm oil segment -
Revenue RM 130 mil and profit before tax RM 29.3 mil
close to my profit estimation RM 30 mil +- 5 mil

Timber segment - Perform better than expected..

Logs revenue RM 76.9 mils and profit RM 18 mil (much better)
Wood processing RM 61 mil and lost RM -3.5 mi (est lost but not able determine the number)

After take a closer look at the logs business which much deviate from my estimation with such a strong results.

Revenue 76.9 mils with average log average selling price RM 669
which translated to sales of 114,900 cm3 log (Q3'17 logs production 86,234 cm2 logs)
sales volume for logs increased by 71 %.
With such a strong sales of logs exceed the total production look quite abnormal..
Furthermore there is 30% quote for logs export, this quarter could use up the quote for next export quote and depleting some logs inventory.
Some of the logs use for wood processing...
With the logs export quote use up for last Q and less production for log for this Q could create a double dip for log business for coming Q unless the log production pick up strong may and june..
Inconsistent of timber business cause it hard to est this business...

Just my observation, could be true or false...spend a little bit time to digest the log business...

After reviewed the OSV business for those O & G companies already announced the quarterly result, seem like OSV business did quite badly in Q1'17 due to low utilization...

Perdana Petroluem
Q1'16 - OSV utilization 50%
Q4'16 - OSV utilization 58%
Q1'17 - OSV utilization 24%

Mostly likely, the oil and gas company with OSV business will did badly for Q1'17 for this segment.
Both Dayang and Perdana report not so good result for Q1'17...Mainly affected by OSV.

Based on the rough estimation of the Palm oil output figure and CPO price..
Est the profit before tax from palm oil business should be around RM 30 mil +- 5 mil
(The 4th CPO plant started operation in current Q, it will help to reduce some cost. Start up of new plant could incur higher cost at the beginning. Therefore the impact not known until quarter result announced)

Timber business -
Last Q profit before tax ~ RM 9 mil
Current Quarter timber output reduce by 33% compare to last Q.
Est this Q will either break even or incur lost due to plywood business.
Lower Quote for log export 30% will reduce the profit margin for timber business.
Weaker RM for this Q help to offset some cost due to higher selling price in RM.

Therefore do expect weak timber business but strong palm oil business.
A few major changes on the current Q cause it is hard to est the jtiasa result for this Q.

The Armada Kraken FPSO left the Keppel
yard on 23 November 2016, arrived in the
North Sea on 13 February 2017, where
she was hooked-up to the preinstalled
mooring buoy on 17 February 2017. At
the time of writing, she is undergoing
start-up and commissioning activities
with a plan to achieve First Oil in mid
2017. From a schedule and budget
viewpoint, the progress of the Armada
Kraken conversion project has been very
disappointing throughout the project
period and with a resulting delay of more
than one year in total. This has resulted in
supplementary payments being committed
to the Charterers. At the time of writing,
we are in process of finalising the contract
amendments and have agreed in principal
to redefine the final delivery date from
1 April 2017 to 15 July 2017.

Some info i plug from annual report.... Seem like there is some amendment on the Armada Kraken dateline... Delay from 1 April 2017 to 15 July 2017.
Impact -
Some compensation for delay 3.5 months to Enquest, extra cost incur
Delay in recognizing the revenue from Armada Kraken in 2017.

Smart director, dumped 8.5 mil shares in early March....
Insider always the winner...
Current Q will most likely incur lost due to write off of FPSO...

El Nino making a comeback in 2017?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hleresearch/118313.jsp

实值国际（Pworth）东风将吹
Jtiasa 欠东风。。。
Jtiasa should learn from Pworth to import a well known shareholder to help release its valuable asset... Then the share price can be double like Pworth..

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sinchew_company_story/118093.jsp

Pworth is doing timber business and Palm oil business at Sabah...
Jtiasa is doing timber business and Palm oil business at Sarawak..

Jaya tiasa set for strong recovery for current quarter (Q3'17-Jan-Mar'17) compare to last yr due to strong FFB output (36% increased Jan-Feb) and ~ 50% increased in FFB price and ~ 35% increase in CPO price.

Previous concerns on
FFB output in Q2'17 dropped 3.95% Y on Y
(could be due to El Nino delay effect) affected weaker Q2 results.
Sudden decreased in timber output in Jan'17
Both factors above cause share price dropped from RM 1.4+ to RM 1.2+

After looking at the latest Feb'17 output report, seem like we should expect much better Q3'17 result than last yr...The worst is over for timber output and FFB output decrease...

Palm oil business

FFB output set for strong improvement for Jan-Feb'17 compare to last yr with 36% increased
FFB price improved by 50% and CPO price improved by 35% compare to last yr
Hariyama CPO plant started to operate in Dec'16 and this has increased the CPO output, reduce in the operation cost and transport cost.. FFB sell to third party will reduce from ~ 25% to ~10% (Simalau plantation FFB output) which mean Jtiasa will process ~ 90% of its FFB and left 10% FFB sell to third party.

Q3'17 will register better profit for palm oil business compare to RM 30 mil loss last yr - Q3'16


Timber business
Logging license certification must completed by 2017 and the process should ended soon.
Sudden drop in Log output in Jan'17 could be due to weather and license certification.
Feb'17 log showed strong rebound mean the timber business back to normal.
There are RM 26 mil inventory build up in last Q, it should translate to revenue this Q.
Jan'17 Log and Plywood price has rebound from Dec'17. Tokyo Olympics 2020 construction work will start in 2017. Plywood price set for recovery from 2016.

Timber business registered loss in Q1'17 and return to profit in Q2'17. The Q3'17 should be remain profitable thanks to weaker RM - 5% weaker compare to Q2'17.

Seem like the Feb'17 FFB output is doing well and log output recovered from Jan'17 output.

FFB out FY'16 (Jan+Feb)
(48,645 + 52,753 = 101,398)

FFB output FY'17
(65067+ 72991= 138,058)

Y on Y FFB (Jan+Feb) growth by 36% compare to FY'16

Output of CPO show that the New CPO plant has started operated since Jan'17 and this will help to reduce transport cost for FFB. Jtiasa will start to process some of its FFB at new 4th CPO factory instead of transport the FFB and sell to third party to process.

Look at Erin energy website... oyo field is using armada perdana. Look at the news and know where to link the info... news wont tell you everything, you need to know link it..

http://www.erinenergy.com/our-assets/nigeria/default.aspx

How many type of sugar we have, how come astro said no price increase?

http://english.astroawani.com/malaysia-news/sugar-price-remains-rm2-84-kilo-hamzah-124158

A lot of short term traders came to Armada last week and today a lot followers cut lost... Look at Yinson and Skp petrol share price steady.. Short term trading create a lot of volatility to stock price..

Goldman Sachs Turns Bullish On Oil
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/goldman-sachs-turns-bullish-oil-000000237.html

oil market very volatile this week.. short term trading will be very high risk..

2 big cash cows for Armada progress well.

1. Armada olombendo FPSO

a. Location @ South Africa, few days away will reach Angola offshore
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:711369/mmsi:538001311/imo:9178757/vessel:ARMADA_OLOMBENDO_FPSO
b. Armada should be able to collect Charter rate soon...

2. Armada Kraken

Enquest completed debt restructuring and 82 mil pound raised and debt maturity date extended.
Enquest will focus on bring the Armada kraken on line and pump more oil from the field.
http://www.enquest.com/media-centre/press-releases/2016/22-11-2016.aspx

b. Armada started to sail to North Sea after Enquest debt restructuring completed. It take 50 days to reach North sea. Current location @ Melaka Strait (near Klang area)
http://www.marinetraffic.com/fr/ais/details/ships/shipid:754152/imo:9320726/mmsi:566489000/vessel:ARMADA%20KRAKEN

No need to worry about Termination and Enquest balance sheet strengthen after debt restructuring and right issued share.

c. Armada should be able to collect charter rate Q1' 2017...

Take a look at TAANN financial changes after new CFO take over when company reported one of the worst quarterly result in Q1'16....Q2'16 with improvement and Q3'16 getting better...

What i will do if i just took over as CFO for Armada with current CFO resigned on 13th Sep 2016...

First Do a financial reviews for Armada.

1. On 19th of Sep, announced the bad news that we will compensate for Armada Kraken and charge USD 20 mil expense on current quarter.
2. Review the payment from Armada Perkasa and Perdana and declared those payment more than certain period as doubtful debt as per financial accounting practice.
3. I need to know all the bad news and declare all in current Q and i would like to have a clean financial account when i take over.
4. Next Q result is my first financial quarter result... Clean, clear and turn around and with improvement for Armada ..

Transition from one CFO to CFO will see some changes in financial result on that quarter and turn around & improvement on next financial quarter when the new CFO has clean up the number before take over.

Just my thought... next Q could be a turn around quarter with new CFO..

Oil Is Heading Back To $20s
If true, the RM will continue weaken and Oil and gas stocks could retest year low price.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2016/11/13/oil-is-heading-back-to-20s/#746d197270cf

Yesterday CPO spot market price RM 2,888.00 at record high for 2016

http://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?jenis=1Y&more=Y&tahun=2016

Taann 60 percent process CPO from own plantation and 40 percent process CPO from third party FFB.

60 percent CPO revenue affected by own plantation CPO volume + CPO price.
40 percent CPO processing affected by production volume and FFB processing margin.
2nd Half FFB production is higher than 1st half. Therefore Taann Palm oil business is performed better in second half seasonally..

Compare the P Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak CPO output for 1st half 2016

Location xxx 2015 (MT) 2016 (MT) Different Drop percent

P. MALAYSIA 4,868,860 3,943,126 -925,734 -19.01
SABAH xxxx 2,629,205 2,135,118 -494,087 -18.79
SARAWAK 1,547,023 1,512,369 -34,654 -2.24

Sarawak plantation is less affected by El Nino than Sabah and Peninsular Malaysia.. they still enjoy similar or better output with higher CPO price... You should check the last Q palm oil business for Sarawak plantation counters, most of them are out perform others... For the rest of 2nd half 2016, i foresee sarawak plantation business will perform better too..

Palm oil export for Aug raise by 27 percent compare to July.
Average Aug CPO price is around RM 2657.
Expected Palm oil stock should be doing well in current counter.
Higher price with higher output.
RM to USD weaken 4.085 and some export counters in spot light active trading today.

Recovery of Plywood business on the way in 2H16
Read http://uk.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/japanese-housing-starts-8.9-vs.-7.4-forecast-124033

QR within my expectation for Profit BT...~40 mil
Timber business i expected 10 mil profit BT, actual is 21 mil profit BT
Palm oil business i expected 30 mil profit BT, actual is 18 mil profit BT.
Timber performed much better than i expected but palm oil profit below my expectation.

Very disappointed result..little profit from timber and plantation continue registered loss most likely next week could break RM 1.

Super bull run for CPO today..
Futures/Months Last Change
FCPO/Sep 2016 2886.00 +145.00
FCPO/Oct 2016 2714.00 +104.00
FCPO/Nov 2016 2627.00 +88.00
FCPO/Dec 2016 2585.00 +72.00

Another new record FFB and CPO output...July 2016

The Company is pleased to announce that logs and crop production of the Group for the month of July 2016 are as follows :-

1) Logs - 40,199 cubic metres
2) Fresh Fruit Bunches - 106,492 metric tonnes
3) Crude Palm Oil - 13,795 metric tonnes
4) Palm Kernel - 2,502 metric tonnes

www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5173289

The Industrial Production Index (IPI) in June 2016 posted a higher growth of 5.3% as compared to 2.8% registered in May 2016.

The Manufacturing sector continued to expand at 4.7% in June 2016 after registering a growth of 3.7% in May 2016. The growth in June 2016 was supported by three major sub-sectors; Electrical and Electronics Products (9.1%), Petroleum, Chemical, Rubber and Plastic Products (5.0%) and " Wood Products, Furniture, Paper Products, Printing (10.1%)."

Today could break the support due to yesterday announcement.

CIMB Group Holdings Bhd said its 93.71%-owned subsidiary
CIMB Thai Bank PCL's second quarter net profit fell 82% year-on-year
to 39.89 million baht (about RM4.8 million) on higher operating
expenses and bad debt.

Read http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/cimb-gromutual-pantech-scomi-engineering-public-bank-and-sime-darby

Extra reason for weak ringgit besides US raise rate, RM has been haunted by 1MDB.
US set to seize assets tied to Malaysian fund 1MDB - media

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/us-set-seize-assets-tied-malaysian-fund-1mdb-media

La Niña effects alive and well across U.S. corn, soy belt: Braun

Recommended to buy Soybean , soybean oil and CPO futures..

Read http://www.reuters.com/article/us-grains-weather-braun-idUSKCN0ZV0E9