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3 comment(s). Last comment by zbaikitree2 2016-01-10 00:14
Posted by zbaikitree2 > 2016-01-10 00:13 | Report Abuse
Here's Goldman:
US equity upside: Limited by the ‘Yellen call’
We see limited upside to equities in 2016. Our US Portfolio Strategy team has a 2016 price target of 2,100 for the S&P 500, suggesting a very modest return of 5% (from current levels). Their framework assumes that 1) earnings per share will rise 10.1%, driven partly by ‘base effects’ in the energy sector and partly by improvements in global growth more generally, but that 2) the price-earnings multiple will fall approximately 5% (to 16.3x from 17.1x), as typically happens during rate-hike cycles. And, due to the delayed timing of rate hikes, the downside risk to price-earnings multiples is probably greater this year because the positive growth surprises that would normally accompany rate hikes are arguably behind us. Since our US GDP forecast envisions mild deceleration in 2016, equities and other risky assets will likely bear the brunt of rate hikes without the usual buffer of better growth data.
We also see a risk that the ‘Bernanke put’ will gradually be replaced by the ‘Yellen call’. The ‘Bernanke put’ captured the intuition that when the risks to growth, inflation and market sentiment are skewed to the downside and the Fed has an easing bias, monetary policy reacts aggressively to bad news. Now that these risks have receded, we expect the Fed will shift to an easing bias, implying that monetary policy will likely begin to react more aggressively to good news. The inflection point for this shift to an easing bias will arguably arrive in 2016, beyond which rallies in risk sentiment may be met by less accommodative monetary policy – the ‘Yellen call’.
Posted by zbaikitree2 > 2016-01-10 00:14 | Report Abuse
and how powerful is Goldman?
read the below petition.
Tell Janet Yellen: No more Goldman Sachs at the Fed
Petition by Brian Kettenring
To be delivered to Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve leaders are supposed to represent the public, yet three key positions at the Federal Reserve have opened up this year and all three positions have been filled by former Goldman Sachs insiders. Tell Janet Yellen to say no to more Goldman insiders at the Fed.
There are currently 493 signatures. NEW goal - We need 500 signatures!
No result.
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CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
mystockdeck
13 posts
Posted by mystockdeck > 2016-01-09 21:21 | Report Abuse
We need to see how it reacts near the resistance, but breaking the Aug low seems like a very high possibility now.