At 5pm, the KLCI was up 6.11 points of 0.36% to 1,701.99. Turnover was 1.74 billion shares valued at RM1.41bil. There were 354 gainers, 452 losers and 383 counters unchanged.
Join my group for Holding updates and daily short term trades with Technical and Fundamental analysis. ( whats app at 60 11 5796 8095 )
This company share price shoot up after the general election because of its major shareholder being Mukhriz Mahathir. Investors are hoping that since he is part of the winning coalition (and Tun M being the new PM) contracts will start flowing back into the company which is a bit of a wishful thinking in my opinion. Even if Mukhriz can get any favourable contracts from the government (or GLC), Opcom would be the last vehicle that he would want to use to get them. All eyes (opposition, public, NGO etc) are already on this company and any contract awards that are not based on open tender will invite criticism as well as potential investigation by the MACC in the future (Tun M is only expected to stay as PM till 2020).
Anyway, in terms of financial performance the company managed to deliver a profit of RM1.9mil to its shareholder in 1H19. However, please take note that a big portion of the profit (RM900k) are actually due to forex gain. Excluding that, the 1H19 profit would have actually been around RM1mil only. Assuming the business pick up in 2H19 and the company managed to deliver a total profit of RM3mil for FY19 (average profit for 3Q and 4Q need to be around RM1mil per quarter), at the current share price, the company is currently valued at around 35x PE. If the company managed to outperform and deliver a profit of RM5mil in FY19 (avg profit of RM2mil for 3Q & 4Q), the company would still be valued at a high of 21.2x PE.
Investors need also to take note that the previous contracts are mostly awarded by Telekom Malaysia which currently is facing some operational difficulties given the government insistent for TM to reduce their price offering to the public but at the same time increase the service quality level. This would only mean lower revenue but higher cost which will affect TM’s bottom line in the future. I doubt that their future contract tenders would provide high profit margins to its contractors (Opcom included).
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of Opcom (due to its earnings uncertainties and the relatively high valuation) I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM10mil to RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
armadasaxon
883 posts
Posted by armadasaxon > 2018-11-22 11:42 | Report Abuse
kikiki..oredi said..