JOSE LUIS ROCA / AFP / Getty Images The US dollar is under pressure in Wall Street trade.
After a weekend of chaos and demonstrations at US airports stirred by President Donald Trump’s executive order mandating tighter immigration rules, the greenback was crushed in early Monday trade.
Here’s the chart for the US dollar index, a broad representation of how the USD is valued against the currencies of key trading partners.
Via Investing.com The effects were felt across markets. The Yen rallied from 114.93 to 113.76 against the greenback. US Treasury yields also tightened slightly by more than a basis point to trade at 2.47% a short time ago.
Iran Prepares to Ditch Dollar in International Trade
03:43 01.02.2017(updated 05:48 01.02.2017) After US President Donald Trump included Iran on a list of Muslim-majority countries facing a temporary immigration ban, Tehran responded by threatening to stop using the American dollar.
Iran would either introduce a new common currency, in place of the US dollar, or use a portfolio of various currencies in foreign exchange and financial reports, according to Valiollah Seif, governor of the Central Bank of Iran.
Trump signed an executive order on immigration last Friday, ostensibly to protect Americans from terror attacks. Under the order, immigrants from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Libya, Sudan and Yemen will not be allowed to enter the US for 90 days. Additionally, the US refugee program is suspended for 120 days, and the acceptance of refugees from Syria is suspended indefinitely.
Trump told reporters, "It's working out very nicely…You see it at the airports. You see it all over. It's working out very nicely and we're going to have a very, very strict ban, and we're going to have extreme vetting, which we should have had in this country for many years."
Seif noted that the US dollar’s share in Iran’s foreign exchange is insignificant, and that its replacement should be suitable for trade with important partners like the United Arab Emirates, Russia, China and the European Union.
Some analysts have suggested that Tehran stands to make $41 billion in oil profits this fiscal year alone, and that switching from the dollar could pose a considerable financial risk. Iranian economic publication Donya-ye Eqtesad observed, however, that the dollar has already been largely replaced by other currencies in oil transactions, and that Tehran has been chiefly using it in official reporting.
Write a comment..US Dollar challenges lows near 99.40 By Pablo Piovano The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index, is losing ground across the board on Thursday, now testing recent multi-week lows in the 99.40 area.
US Dollar weaker post-FOMC
The index faded yesterday’s eventually unsuccessful attempt too retake the psychological 100.00 handle, deflating to the current area near 99.40, levels last seen back in early November.
The FOMC meeting on Wednesday left no room for surprises, leaving the target rate of the Fed Funds unchanged while the statement showed no major changes. We have to assume then that uncertainty around ‘Trumponomics’ remains intact as well as the Committee’s forecast for three rate hikes this year.
Data as of late continued to reinforce the solid health of the US economy, although further clues regarding the timing and/or updated projections of the rates’ path should come from Fed speakers and the minutes in the upcoming weeks.
Data wise in the US, the usual report on the labour market is due along with Q4’s Non-farm Productivity and the Economic Optimism index measured by IBD/TIPP.
US Dollar relevant levels
The index is losing 0.24% at 99.45 facing the immediate support at 98.92 (61.8% Fibo of the Nov-Jan. up move) followed by 96.94 (low Nov.4) and then 95.91 (low Nov.9). On the other hand, a break above 100.06 (high Feb.1) would open the door to 100.42 (high Jan.31) and finally 101.02 (high Jan.30).
OUTLOOK AND PROSPECT 1。For the year of 2015, the economy advanced by 5.0%. The outlook of the local construction industry remains attractive on the back of the continued government development policies that gives strong emphasis on a slew of projects to help accelerate the growth of the country economy.
2。As at 31st December 2015, the Group recorded a total of RM534.28 million unbilled construction order book.
PSIPTEK remains committed and focused in its core business. The Group has successfully secured a total of RM326.25 million contracts during the financial year and PSIPTEK is confident in securing some potential construction projects in the coming future.
3。PSIPTEK maintains optimistic of its property development division especially the demand of medium cost properties in Klang Valey, Penang and Johore is still strong.
4。PSIPTEK is placing more emphasis towards the current demand for the “Gated and Guarded” concept, affordable pricing homes, eco friendly building materials and harmony living environment.
Our landmark project, the highly acclaimed residential project at Puncak 7, Shah Alam, with the overwhelming hilltop view of the entire city has created the right aspiration and interest of property connoisseurs. Besides, the demand of the mixed development properties developed by our subsidiary in Ayutthaya, Thailand has been very encouraging. As at 31st December 2015, PSIPTEK’s future property development projects to be launched in Malaysia and overseas market worth approximately RM547.22 million.
Property - Future Property Development Projects。
5。“As at 31st December 2015, the Group’s future property development projects to be launched in Malaysia and overseas market worth approximately RM547.22 million.“ sourcing from Annual Report 2015. PSIPTEK current project Puncak 7 in Shah Alam Seksyen 7 is overwhelming with estimated GDV of RM180million, full take up rate, expected completion date of February 2018. (FY2017 财政年-爆发净利)
6。*In future, PSIPTEK is expected to launch the property developed in Sri Gombak, Penang Batu Feringhi, Prins Bay and Thailand market with total GDV worth RM547million.
Construction: RM534million – RM122mil (figures from Q3 FYE2016) = RM412mil
7。The above figure has not added any contracts secured during year 2016. Historically the contract awarded in year 2015 is RM326.25 million. Expected the contract awarded in year 2016 to be in par with year 2015.
One-off Item Recorded in Q4 FYE2015. 8.PSIPTEK recorded a loss before taxation of RM1.17mil in Q4 FYE2015 due to written off of the damaged and obsolete machinery and equipment of RM3.03 million. With the normalise adjustment, the Group could have reported a gain of RM1.86mil which is in par with the past three quarter results. http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=7145
9。THE director’s confidence in PSIPTEK Acquisition of shares. The directors have acquired a lump sum of 83 mil shares priced at 18 cents. Waiting the Intrinsic Share Price Value to reflect for them to realise their capital gain.
Asset - Landbank 10。PSIPTEK has over 100 acres of undeveloped landbank, mainly in the Klang Valley. This form partial of the NTA of RM0.57. The NTA is at 78.07% discounted as per current closing price of RM0.125 ONLY. (超过55%-60% of The NTA,只是少少的40% of The NTA, PSIPTEK 的价位至少值22.5 cent )
Forecast EPS for FYE2016 will be ranged at 1.8cents. 11。The share should be priced at PE of 11-15 at 20 cent – 25 cent (目前的PE at 9.69x) Bear in mind, PSIPTEK has been profitable for 6 consecutive years.
Hey Albert.. you are at the wrong counter, this is strickly reserved for Perisai..show some respect..if you have news relevan for Perisai you are most welcome to share if not please do not drop other irrelevant stories..
Saudi Arabia has raised the prices of all grades it will be shipping to Asia, the U.S., Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean countries, with prices for Asian buyers increased more than expected.
Saudi Arabia’s state-held oil giant Saudi Aramco is raising March prices for Arab Light crude to Asia by $0.30 to a premium of $0.15 to the regional Oman/Dubai benchmark, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing an e-mailed statement by the company.
A median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of six refiners and traders had pointed to Aramco raising the Arab Light official pricing to a premium of $0.10 over the Oman/Dubai benchmark, which many Middle East state oil companies use to price their crude grades bound for Asia.
The majority of traders surveyed by S&P Global Platts expected earlier this week Aramco to raise the March official selling price of Arab Light crude for Asia by $0.10-$0.20. Ads by
Reuters trade sources had also expected a rise by at least $0.10 and up to $0.30 for the Arab Light.
Despite a recent OPEC agreement to cut oil production and boost prices, it is unrealistic to expect that the commodity will reach $65 a barrel in the near term, an analyst at the Paris-based International Energy Agency told CNBC.
OPEC countries reached an agreement last November to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day to support oil prices and tackle three-consecutive years of falling investment. In early December, some non-OPEC countries, such as Russia, joined their efforts and promised to cut output by 600,000 barrels per day.
"I think 63, 65 (dollars a barrel for Brent) I think you might be a little bit ambitious there because the OPEC producers have got this basic issue, they don't want the price to go too low clearly, because their economies wouldn't stand it," Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division, at the IEA told CNBC Friday.
If oil prices go too high, it’s detrimental to global economy: IEA 9 Hours Ago | 01:20
Despite a recent OPEC agreement to cut oil production and boost prices, it is unrealistic to expect that the commodity will reach $65 a barrel in the near term, an analyst at the Paris-based International Energy Agency told CNBC.
OPEC countries reached an agreement last November to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day to support oil prices and tackle three-consecutive years of falling investment. In early December, some non-OPEC countries, such as Russia, joined their efforts and promised to cut output by 600,000 barrels per day.
"I think 63, 65 (dollars a barrel for Brent) I think you might be a little bit ambitious there because the OPEC producers have got this basic issue, they don't want the price to go too low clearly, because their economies wouldn't stand it," Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division, at the IEA told CNBC Friday. Oil pumpjacks in the Permian Basin oil field are getting to work as crude oil prices gain. Spencer Platt | Getty Images Oil pumpjacks in the Permian Basin oil field are getting to work as crude oil prices gain.
"But if the price goes too high then that's going to attract a lot of investment in other parts of the world, principally the U.S. shale producers," Atkinson added.
By Henning Gloystein | SINGAPORE Oil prices edged up on Monday on fears that new U.S. sanctions against Iran could be extended to start affecting crude supplies, but markets were capped by further signs of growing U.S. production.
Tensions between Tehran and Washington have risen since a recent Iranian ballistic missile test which prompted U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to impose sanctions on individuals and entities linked to the Revolutionary Guards.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $56.86 per barrel at 0037 GMT, up 5 cents from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 5 cents at $53.88 a barrel.
Traders said the strain between Tehran and the United States raised concerns that U.S. sanctions could be tightened further to impact Iranian oil exports, which were only allowed to return to normal last year.
"The move by the U.S. to impose new restrictions on Iran for testing a ballistic missile ... does raise the risk of further tensions disrupting supply," ANZ bank said on Monday.
Hedge funds make record bet on rising oil prices Investors back Opec’s supply cuts and seek protection against risk of inflation Apache Corporation, Brent Briscoe with crude processing equipment at central tank farm Adair San Andreas Unit, Welch, TX.
February 6, 2017 6:34 pm by Anjli Raval and Dan McCrum in London Hedge funds have amassed the biggest ever bet on rising oil prices as investors back Opec’s bid to tighten the crude market and seek protection against fears of inflation.
Data from regulators and exchanges showed speculators have built long positions equivalent to almost 1bn barrels of crude across the major contracts, while short positions amount to just 111m barrels.
This one-sided bet has left speculative investors holding a record net long position — the difference between bets on rising and falling prices — in Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures and options contracts equivalent to 885m barrels by January 31.
That massive paper position is equal to just over nine days of global oil demand, and has prompted some traders to express concern prices could fall if funds move to take profits by selling positions en masse.
But the record oil bet, which investors have increased while prices have held relatively steady since the start of the year, could also point to the involvement of large macro funds. These sometimes trade oil as a hedge against moves in other sectors.
Markets are also focused on the impact of policies under Donald Trump as Opec producers and allies such as Russia have cut oil output as part of a deal to curb supplies and raise prices.
Our question is why are prices not higher
Hedge fund manager The US president’s plans for lower taxes, deregulation and increased infrastructure spending has fostered confidence in US economic growth, but also stoked concerns about inflation — which sometimes leads fund to buy oil as protection against rising costs.
Richard Robinson, manager of the Global Energy Fund at Ashburton Investments, said: “Energy is probably the only commodity which gives you a real hedge against unexpected inflation.”
Oil futures are attractive to European investors concerned about inflation because they are widely traded and provide portfolios with exposure to both the potential for higher commodity prices and a stronger dollar.
Still, other investors see reasons more directly linked to oil’s output behind the surge in funds’ crude buying.
KUALA LUMPUR : Global crude oil prices are expected to recover to US$65 per barrel by end-2017, says OCBC Bank.
According to the regional financial institution, global oil prices appeared to have found some footing with the OPEC production cut deals holding up thus far.
The rebound in crude oil prices was expected to support the ringgit's exchange rate and Malaysia's economy.
"Since oil price slump of previous years was one factor affecting the ringgit's exchange rate, it is logical yo expect the same pattern to hold on the flip side now that oil price is recovering," OCBC Bank said in its 2017 Economic Outlook presentation here today.
It pointed out that in tandem with recovering oil prices, other commodity prices had also moved higher. This should provide added stability for Asia.
"In Malaysia, for instance, the recovering commodity prices have been offering the economy some support. It also occurs at a time when domestic consumption has stayed encouragingly robust due to helpful employment and wage trajectories.
Chinese currency has appreciated less than most against dollar Fall against trade-weighted basket boosts competitiveness
Here's How China Got Its Yuan in a Sweet Spot China has got the yuan in a sweet spot.
The nation’s authorities have let the currency rise enough against the U.S. dollar to put a spanner in President Donald Trump’s assertion that China deliberately undervalues its exchange rate. At the same time, it has weakened against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, giving China a competitive edge in exports.
This “honeymoon” for the yuan will likely last in the near term as the dollar continues to weaken before the outlook for U.S. fiscal stimulus clarifies, according to Zhong Zhengsheng, managing director of Beijing-based research firm CEBM Group Ltd. “The most likely scenario is that the yuan will remain stable or rally against the dollar, while it silently depreciates versus a basket of exchange rates,” he wrote in a Feb. 6 note.
China’s typical stance during periods of a weakening dollar -- letting the yuan strengthen against the greenback, though less than its peers -- has extra significance now because of Trump’s threats to label the country a currency manipulator. Earlier this month, the president’s pick as ambassador to China, Terry Branstad, said the yuan has been stronger than Trump anticipated.
Trump administration officials’ comments so far offer little clarity on whether China will officially be dubbed as a currency manipulator in the Treasury Department’s semiannual foreign-exchange report, due in April.
The yuan has gained about 1 percent against the U.S. dollar since the start of the year, following a drop of about 4 percent in the fourth quarter. American officials focus on the yuan’s performance against the dollar rather than the currency basket as they look at U.S.-China trade, which is settled in dollars or yuan, said Standard Chartered Plc foreign-exchange strategist Eddie Cheung.
The yuan’s rise against the dollar pales with major emerging market currencies such as the Korean won, which leads the pack with a year-to-date gain of 5.3 percent. It was a different story in the fourth quarter, when the dollar enjoyed broad strength against most currencies. The won slid 8.8 percent over those three months.
The won was among the additions to the yuan’s trade-weighted currency basket at the start of this year. The revamp changed the makeup of the reference group, which now has a lesser weighting for the dollar. A Bloomberg replica version of the CFETS RMB Index has fallen 1.2 percent since the year began, even as the yuan rose against the dollar.
More on the currency basket: China downgrades dollar’s prominence
For the next several weeks, the yuan may enjoy a run of stability in the run-up to the annual gathering of the nation’s legislature in March, according to Standard Chartered’s Cheung.
“Policy makers will try to prevent large volatility in the yuan in February and March, because they wouldn’t want the currency to be the market’s focus during the National People’s Congress,” Cheung said.
All this data suggests that, despite the increase in the US production, oil prices still have strong potential to extend their recent gains, mainly due to the processing capacity of US refiners massively exceeding the current levels of crude extraction. The lack of proper infrastructure, such as DAPL and Keystone, is also supporting further gains in oil prices. Moreover, the Trump-proposed economic reforms in the US, gains in the post-Brexit UK manufacturing, and the recent stabilization in mainland China's growth are all factors supportive of a more expensive oil in the near-to-medium-term.
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Oil and gas discoveries dry up to lowest total for 60 years Companies are putting a brake on exploration and large fields are harder to find
Sample the FT’s top stories for a week You select the topic, we deliver the news. Select topic Enter email addressInvalid email Sign up By signing up you confirm that you have read and agree to the terms and conditions, cookie policy and privacy policy. There were only 174 oil and gas discoveries worldwide last year, compared to an average of 400-500 per year up until 2013, according to IHS Markit, the research group.
The slowdown in exploration success shows that the world is likely to become increasingly reliant on “unconventional” resources such as US shale oil and gas to meet demand for energy in future decades.
The typical time from discovery to production is five to seven years, so a shortfall in oil and gas discoveries now implies tighter supplies in the next decade.
However, there are signs of a tentative upturn in conventional exploration this year, with some companies including Statoil of Norway planning to step up drilling activity.
Discoveries hit a six-decade low in 2015, and then dropped again last year to about 8.2bn barrels equivalent of oil and gas.
The slowdown reflects both the cyclical cuts in exploration made by companies struggling to stay afloat after the drop in oil and gas prices since 2014, and the structural shift in the industry towards onshore shale and similar reserves, especially in North America.
Most frontier exploration is now offshore, where a single well can cost $150m, and the success rate for “wildcat” wells has been about one in five.
Spending on exploration fell from $100bn in 2014 to $40bn last year, according to Wood Mackenzie, another research company.
Chevron of the US cut its exploration budget from $3bn in 2015 to $1bn per year in 2016-17, and ConocoPhillips is pulling out of deep water exploration altogether.
The discoveries of new fields compare to 190bn barrels equivalent of oil and gas that have been added to the estimated resource base of North America over the past 10 years, thanks to advances in technology that have made production possible from shale and other similarly challenging “tight” rocks.
A shale well onshore can cost $4m-$10m and be brought into production in weeks, as opposed to five or more years for deepwater discoveries. Bob Fryklund of IHS Markit said: “We’re solving the problem through tight rocks.”
However, Wood Mackenzie expects a modest upturn in exploration activity this year, forecasting that more than 500 wells will be drilled globally in 2017, compared with 430 in 2016.
Wells planned by ExxonMobil in Guyana, Eni in Italy, Statoil in the Barents Sea, and in Mauritania by Kosmos Energy and its new partner BP were among those with high potential for making a discovery, it added.
Andrew Latham, head of global exploration research at Wood Mackenzie, said that lower daily rates for drilling rigs and other savings were allowing companies to achieve more for less money.
“If you look at what they are spending, it looks very cautious. But if you look at the bang they are getting for their bucks, it is much more optimistic,” he said.
He warned that, with exploration opportunities more plentiful than the available capital, there would be fierce competition for investment. “Countries that are overly harsh on their fiscal framework will not attract investment, because companies have choices.”
The world’s two largest discoveries of the year were both in the US: Caelus Energy’s discovery at Smith Bay in shallow water off the north coast of Alaska, which could hold up to 4bn barrels of recoverable oil, and ConocoPhillips’ Willow discovery, which is also in Alaska but onshore, and is estimated to hold 300m barrels.
Other large finds last year included discoveries of large offshore gasfields by Kosmos Energy in Senegal and Cobalt International Energy in Angola.
In another sign of the challenges facing exploration today, most of the frontier discoveries in recent years have tended to open up smaller regions, rather than large new areas like the offshore fields of Brazil.
The most recent giant basin to be opened up was the Zohr gasfield found in Egypt by Eni in 2015.
as long as they don't clear their debt or exit PN 17, don't give too much hope..they still got roughly 8 months time to come up with a plan to settle their debt..
Icon Offshore and UMWOG merged, Perisai have to merge with others immediately..SapuraKP, Yinson is the suitable partner.but yeaa, the debt is the stumbling point.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
juzaguy
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Posted by juzaguy > 2017-01-25 17:40 | Report Abuse
until it gets out of PN17.... hopefully it can maintain