Tradeview Commentaries 7th December 2020 - Risk On For Financial Markets?
Record high for Dow, SP500 and Nasdaq last Friday was a huge boost in confidence for participants of the financial markets. The global stock market participants are clearly risk on, with bullish mode and relying on a abundant of reasons to justify the rally.
1. Liquidity due monetary policies of central banks around the world 2. Vaccine optimism and potential economic reopening 2021 3. A hopeful new Biden era ushering multilateralism and ending of trade wars 4. Weakening USD and rebounding of commodities market 5. Inflow of funds into emerging markets
Cumulatively, all these are strong reasons for a bull market. Locally, even KLCI Bursa closed at 1622 today with 16 billion in volume and 7.2 billion in value, erasing losses for the year to close above January 2020 levels. All naysayers which said if Trump is gone, stock market and economy will collapse are now proven wrong. The big question remains is whether the rally is sustainable? There ought to be some correction, no?
Whether I or you agree with the stock market rally or not, our view doesn’t really matter anymore. The stock market and the larger economy is clearly at a disconnect. This is the effect of releasing large amount of liquidity into the economy. Although our government coffers are limited, our country monetary policies consist of loan moratorium, SOCSO, and EPF 1 & 2 early withdrawal. This is akin to bringing forward future earnings / income to the present. Raising debt ceiling and borrowing more to spend now to spur the economy is what's being done by most governments. This has structurally change the stock market direction. It can be seen from the banning of short selling, extension, holding back on force selling, the stock market is being prop up by agencies.
The worst in terms of the stock market is definitely behind us. Nothing can be worst than "March Plunge 2020" when Covid-19, oil crash and government change happen all at once. The strategy forward, should simply be to have 30% of cash on hand at all times (in case of any untowards incidents like Election), buy into fundamentally sound stocks with minimal debts or net cash and not to get ahead of ourselves or too gung ho on recovery stocks especially loss making stocks. Sell into strength for stocks that hit TP or exceed Fair Value. I will maintain this strategy going into 2021. A gentle reminder to be careful of loss making companies especially penny stocks that are making announcements on deals / vaccine related plays etc without basis.
As for the Glove stocks, it will remain a solid feature in my portfolio. I believe unequivocally it will rebound and the current levels are close to the bottom. There are no better value stocks in the market currently in terms of earnings, yield, balance sheet and outlook. Those who thinks otherwise, is making a mistake ignoring fundamentals.
MyEG will be the sole distributor of the vaccine in Malaysia upon successful completion of the phase three trials, it said in a statement.
PETALING JAYA: My E.G. Services Bhd has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Anhui Zhifei Longcom Biopharmaceutical Co Ltd to conduct phase three clinical trials and subsequent commercialisation of its Covid-19 vaccine in Malaysia.
MyEG will be the sole distributor of the vaccine in Malaysia upon successful completion of the phase three trials, it said in a statement.
Under the terms of the contract, the companies will strive to achieve compliance to halal status requirements to secure halal certification from the Department of Islamic Development Malaysia and ensure increased acceptance from the global Muslim population.
Zhifei is a subsidiary of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co Ltd which is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and has been engaged in the biological products industry since 2002, particularly the production of vaccines for human use.
It is presently one of five Chinese companies conducting phase three clinical trials of the Covid-19 vaccine in various parts of the world.
The MoU is valid for three years from the date of signing and may be further extended upon mutual agreement.
The contract is not expected to have any material effect on the net asset per share and gearing of the company for financial year 2020 (FY20) but is expected to contribute positively in FY21 upon successful completion of the phase three trials and commercialisation of the vaccine.
for good growth company, every downtrend will have a reversal..all glove counters right now are facing forced downtrend due to strong vaccine & market opening sentiment..& the sentiment is still there..more vaccine news to come..i think glove counters will being keep pressing down until end of this year
once all the vaccine news hype is over, once we have a confirmed vaccination in process, i anticipate glove counters will make a comeback..
why? because good growth stock never stay low for a long time
our strategy right now? stop the thematic trading mindset for glove counters..the super bull has long gone way behind us, just accept it with open heart & move on..start the growth investing strategy..choose good fundamental glove stocks with high output with a confirmed production expansion..the big 4s, careplus, comfort & rubberex; for me, this is the only growth glove stocks worth to invest..can start discard other small micro-players let alone overhyped-soon-to-be-producing-glove stocks
due to vaccine sentiment, all good fundamental glove stocks right now is grossly undervalued, that's all i can say
Tomorrow Top Glove expected QR. Expected to post record breaking profits of at least RM2 Bililion. Hopefully this will improve the sentiments that regardless of vaccine news, gloves are still the biggest money makers
Pos Malaysia .... the other day I bought stamps to post an ordinary letter. Guess how much the stamps cost now? RM1.30 now. Their revenue will only increase because of the unbelievably high increase in the rates charged.
this counter is super undervalued..but please don't ever think the uptrend will be like before..imo, this counter is a very good investment counter, not a goreng counter anymore
GENEVA (Reuters) - A World Health Organization official said on Monday that only public health measures, not vaccines, can prevent a new surge of COVID-19 cases as the first vaccines are administered in Britain.
"Vaccines are a great tool, they will be very helpful, but the effect of the vaccine in providing some kind of immune barrier is still far off," said Dr. Margaret Harris in response to a question at a Geneva briefing about whether the vaccines would come in time to prevent a third wave of cases in Europe.
"The things that must be done to prevent an increase, an uptick, a surge or whatever you want to call it are the public health measures," she added.
(Reporting by Emma Farge; Editing by Catherine Evans)
If you watch this video on coverage for the vaccine given in UK to the first patient. The nurse not even use any gloves but bare hands. Guess we dont need any gloves in giving vaccine ... this misconception need to be address.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
EdwinYap86
732 posts
Posted by EdwinYap86 > 2020-12-07 16:05 | Report Abuse
Last time RM3 i say will drop to RM2.5 everyone laugh
now who's laughng?