non glove counters are losing steam. traders from non glove counter are rushing to buy glove stocks. the best time to push up glove counters sky high .I expect TP to be surprisingly high.
Happy day, yes speechless...please stay away forever naysayers and leave us in peace. Stay positive guys. I’m glad I didn’t let the naysayers shake me, those who held can sleep well tonight .
I am not sure if anyone noticed that Careplus just had a BREAKOUT of a descending triangle. This reversal is SUPER BULLISH. If we are to measure the peak of the triangle to the base (RM5.83 to RM1.95), this distance is RM3.88. Breakout happened at around RM2.33. Thus the target price to the upside is the a 100% extension of the downside from the breakout price = RM2.33+RM3.88 = RM6.21.
The upcoming Quarterly will be the boost for Careplus to hit the TP.
Careplus in 2019 has a production capacity of 4.14b gloves per their 2019 AR: Careglove Global - 2.40 billion (100% share) Careplus (M) - 1.32 billion (50% share) Rubbercare Protection Products - 0.42 billion pieces (100% share)
They had an 85% capacity and out of these 2.4b were latex gloves(69%), 0.9b nitrile gloves(26%) and 0.2b surgical gloves(5%).
Latest 3rd quarter report states a production capacity of 4.62b gloves. Using the same breakdown, we can expect as a base case assumption of (69% x 4.6b latex gloves), (26% x 4.6b nitrile gloves) and (5% x 4.6b surgical gloves). Using an ASP of $60 for nitrile gloves/1k and $40 for latex and surgical gloves/1k, we can project Careplus will have a base case turnover of US$208m for the next 12 months.
3rd quarter turnover was RM122m vs expected RM213m(USD:MYR of 4.1/1). Can we expect the Q4 turnover to be per the projected figures and with a net profit margin of 35%, the net profit to be around RM74.6m? Certainly looks plausible.
RHB on the recent Rubberex report stated rising ASPs. For the base case, Rubberex is projected to have a net profit of RM255m by producing 2.5b nitrile gloves, sold at US$60 per 1000pcs.
With a RM300m net profit, this gives Careplus an EPS of around 54.5sen. A 10x PER will value Careplus at RM5.45 and at 15x earnings, RM8.18/share.
That was the base case. In the recent Qtr 3 report, Careplus stated they will be expanding production to 10.5b gloves by end of 2021. So the upside is huge if glove demand remains robust throughout 2021. Looks like this recent sell down is an opportunity to add a good growth stock to one's portfolio.
What if the ASP is much, much higher than the $60/1k pcs? Careplus valuations may hit double digits. With the recent surge in covid cases worldwide, glove prices will only trend higher.
I certainly am looking forward to the upcoming quarterly. May Lady luck smile on all holders. :D
Adui kesian chase high, no MCO laa. As per my fr who work at MKN, only say propose to have MCO, but market macam over react alread. If Malaysia MCO, any benefit to glove? Will it increase the business?
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ikanbilisjerungwnabe
1,309 posts
Posted by ikanbilisjerungwnabe > 2021-01-08 15:54 | Report Abuse
glove coming back 2.0 with stronger momentum