Why is this 70cents such a big stumbling block and why do I say it needs to be consistent above 70cents for it to be stable? As I mention earlier, son convert to mother is a 1 way street......if mother jumps over 70cents properly, it's bring son to 60 cents properly also. In essence, this is very very important as more son can reach 60cents will also help to support mother price later. This is when son will emerge grown up!!!
I wrote the below excerpt earlier. Now ask yourself why the price drop? And what did you see? For a start, there was a firm stand between buyer and seller. No budging early this morning. So volume done was low. When that happen, it was good to note when both parties are firm (seller & buyer not giving in) and low volume queue at sellers, it is an ideal situation for push up. As I mentioned earlier, these buyer are not seen in the queue and they will just casually take up the low seller volume. You cannot fight market when the volume come in.
The amt seller queued at 69, and 69.5 will not cease even if the buyer relent and buy all at 69 and 69.5. The only way to clear this is to finish strong at 69 or 69.5 for at least 2 days to clear the volume. So who are these 69 and 69.5 sellers making this volume? It is a combination of 6, 7 and 9 and the believe they cannot get thru the 70cents resistance at a go. I mention yesterday it is very volatile below 70 cents. I would not be excited if it had gone to 70cents today for that same reason. So focus 70cent....if get pass 70 stable, son will break 60c this double break of mother pass 70c and son at 60cents is a psychological barrier. We hope to see son rising when mother is stable above 70cents . Those who thought 69 c already achieve market cap should understand that volume and not volatile price to meet the 500 m target Market cap is important until it is stable above 70.
So the next questions is, if all are good at the moment, why and when is buy and sell? Ppl buy and sell for different reasons and here is some Sell because 1. they need the money 2. the shr price is stagnant 3. the counter is not exciting 4. counter did not perform as promise or expected 5. they have held too long and other more exciting prospect to buy 6. they made a profit 7. market panic 8. lack of future prospect 9* Contra selling
Posted by SaturnZ > Aug 14, 2014 03:39 PM | Report Abuse
Why is this 70cents such a big stumbling block and why do I say it needs to be consistent above 70cents for it to be stable? As I mention earlier, son convert to mother is a 1 way street......if mother jumps over 70cents properly, it's bring son to 60 cents properly also. In essence, this is very very important as more son can reach 60cents will also help to support mother price later. This is when son will emerge grown up!!!
saturnz,dont bs!!!son dont support mother price.LA move in tandem with mother.investor exploit an arbitrage opportunity arise from this situation.
Yes pls don't listen to me I m just a commentator. Pls pls explain why gap close up between mother and son today? Why son hold a 0.05 gap after conversion most part of the day and 1 cent diff after conversion at closing.... Pls explain, I would like to learn!....otherwise those who make 1 comment cannot stick leh
Ok stay focus at 70c.!! Since I hear no explanation, or can't explain, pls proof me wrong of what I said ie son will catchup after mother stable at 70c above with ideal case 75cents. The 3 cents gap after conversion betwen mother and son will diminish.....
Lol...I have no problems with paper champion. Paper champion no different from arm chair critic. Can't do it in real life. Just like coach and player. As they say ..." If you can't play, then coach..." LOL
When dealing w market, company KPI is important and the leader delivering the KPI is key. Ask yourself this, does your CEO harp on the same subject everyday? He is a busy man and completes each KPI and moves on or he leads w leadership to the point but allows the staff to take helm ? A good CEO/ MD leads the key area and allow his charge to deliver by focusing on each of them (KPI) with each of his charge. His role is to focus on all but once archived his attention will be shifted to those lacking behind. In essence, once 70cents is stable, and optimal conversion is achieved, his next focus will be value. A lot of ppl talk abt unbilled. Unbilled is a sales that is already concluded and pending progressive payment. It can neither be achieved earlier unless they can hasten the completion of the project fr normal 3 years to 2. So Low gay Teck s role is simple, 1. Lead the team and their KPI and complete share holders aspiration and trust 2. Ensure the projects are timely completed to be reflected in the financial performance 3. Lead and plan launches 4. Build a good sales pipeline for continuity 5. Sufficient marketing thru marcom and investor relation.
No 1 should be in parallel and also in succession. Example 500M market cap with optimum conversion to mother. This will bring to next execution of dividen. Dividen is a percentage of market investment. Once that is stable ie they know the exact % after this exercise of market cap achieved! they can start averaging the conversion towards 2018. In between any projects capital can be raised thru private placement.
In that sense, they will have the system and machinery over the next 5 years to increase further their market cap fr loan stock whilst any plan immediate ( within a year ) project can use PRivate Placement (PP) as vehicle. PP is usually more like a project base vehicle example Lembah Beringgin may require a certain amount and PP partner/s can come in with a certain leverage. Given the track record of L&G since 2008, this is a certain for valued partnership.
If you understand the intent of the message above, each KPI maybe succession in the sense market cap must be achieved first before you can talk abt more investment or Valued PP partners whilst the parallel would mean more income in (better profit) to improve cash reserve, cash flow, reduce outstanding , payment of dividen, etc. it is important the dividen payout does not eat into cash flow or reserve.
So now, we are all aware of the cash reserve of 300 million, healthy unbilled, low gearing, high income, and soon 500m market cap. As explain earlier what is mean by having high market cap, I will not go into that.
If all is as good as I say, where should one invest....mother or son? Use the below as ur facts 1. Mother to son volume ratio has close gap lately from 1:8 to lclosest 1:1.6 lowest and now 1:3 but avg at 1:2.67 2. For 13 cents conversion vs 2cents dividen (yet to see if single tier) you can buy 6.5 times more LA . 3. mother to Son differential after conversion if we use the stats today was reduce to 0.05 Ie at one point the mother was at 0.67 and son was at 0.535 for sometime but close at 0.53 Meaning son was not under pressured to move down as before.
Base on the facts, If you consider no 2 assuming equal gearing is reached ie LA conversion with 13 cents equal to mother, you can buy actually 6.5 times more LA and achieve the same margin and the 2 cents dividen means nothing then. Even better then if the LA gearing increases and surpasses the mother, you investment will be more than 6.5.
What happen during consolidation? Think of consolidation this way.....if you build a house too fast, very likely you will miss a lot of area which is suppose to complete. Most important in house building is the structure right? The structure of the house cannot go wrong however it is common to miss certain piping in design, or incomplete cemented area or piping design out or even cabling and etc. Those can be corrected before the project resumes. However you do get some cases where the PRoject Manager is so accurate and the design team is so immaculate that the housing project goes thru with minimal correction. This minimal correction is base on phases. Maybe you 3 out of 4 phases completed with minimal hiccup however you stumble a bit at stage 4. Example of this are shares like Insas, Daibochi
So, much like the correction for housing project, some of the areas in the stock when ascending do go thru correction in areas it missed out and as long as it is not a structural problem, it can be rectified before resuming. In the case of L&G, we know the driver is a good Project. Manager and now we have also tested him on investor relations, the next test will be running heavyweight project and trumping them.
Remember it is one thing to be a good PM , it's another to be a good marketeer, and it's also different be running a larger company with more areas to look at. I believe Low Gay Teck has proven half of his ability and I will be waiting for him to show the other half.
The only other hindrance is global partisan in economic sanctions amongst regions and against Russia. GDP measurement of recession is no longer valid and should be ABOLISHED as the indicator may not hold true anymore in a global world. Have a thought!!
Remember must know to follow trend. When it near hit 0.70, u must sell at 0.68 or 0.685. This 2 & 3 weeks I follow this trend and profit a lot. Thank for L&G counter.
Xcu sold already ma... of course he want it drop... if he holding, sure he want it to go up!! But if u are not pro like xcu then just hold for long term.. if u think u can make more by in and out, go ahead!! Help this counter make volume!! Thanks all!
at some point i agree with xcu843,if you have time to manage,just buy it when it low and sell it at high to earn fast money.Undeniably,it is also good to hold good counter for long term where you do not need so much time to manage it,just let it grow slowly. It's depend on your own investment strategy. So,cheers :)
So son showed it can hang on his own and at one point geared up above mother. And mother showed that she can reach 69.5 to indicate a try at 70c at later stage. What it means is mother and son are consolidating between them however I still think above 70 for mother is more accurate to start the consolidation. Also the volume ratio between them did not indicate that they are consolidating.
When is the right time? There isn't a right time but there is an optimal time when mother son ratio is below 2:1 and the gearing are equal or above for son. The lowest I have measured is 1.67:1.
Now I did tell you son will do well after son and mother pass thru major psychological of 60 and 70c respectively however mother need to be stable above 70cents and would do well at 75cents and son will be passing 60.
Hence assuming par gearing the base is at 57cents for son if mother convincingly pass 70cents!.
My gut feeling is that the ding-dong now seems intend to wash out those impatient to wait for it to break 70sen. & those who tried to take profit by playing within the range of 64-69 sen. There will be time those who sold 69 sen will not be able to buy back at lower price.
well,i said i agree with xcu843 at some point,but im the long term type,I want to make good profit by hold it for long term,never worry for this counter at all :) cheers
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
SaturnZ
45 posts
Posted by SaturnZ > 2014-08-14 15:39 | Report Abuse
Why is this 70cents such a big stumbling block and why do I say it needs to be consistent above 70cents for it to be stable?
As I mention earlier, son convert to mother is a 1 way street......if mother jumps over 70cents properly, it's bring son to 60 cents properly also. In essence, this is very very important as more son can reach 60cents will also help to support mother price later. This is when son will emerge grown up!!!