This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on February 7, 2017.
Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd (-ve)
SHARES in Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd (fundamental: 1.8/3, valuation: 1.4/3) triggered our momentum algorithm yesterday for the first time since June 2015.
The counter closed down half a sen or 0.51% at 98.5 sen, with 4.52 million shares traded, compared with its 200-day average volume of 3.36 million shares.
The particle board manufacturer’s net profit tumbled 38.8% to RM16.88 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2016 from RM27.59 million a year ago, on lower average selling price of the group’s products.
The group said its quarterly profit was also affected by higher operating expenses, which mainly consisted of lower foreign exchange gain and impairment of goodwill.
Evergreen Fibreboard is currently trading at 0.77 times its book value, and has a market capitalisation of RM837.54 million.
The stock currently has a 12-months price-earnings ratio of 11.17 times.
bibiana, pls read our discussion above to determine if Evergreen is worth for an investment... statements and facts have been given (though some were manipulated half-facts by sxckperformer)...
make your own judgment wisely based on the info provided...
Evergreen never go above 1.00 anymore since it collapsed from 1.60 last year January. If a stock is good, it won't collapse and stay under 1.00 now. It failed due to high debts and lackluster performance just check it's sliding net profits for 5 consecutive quarters and u can know already.
Bibiana, I don't create the results because those are facts. Don't simply listen to half-truths this stubborn Dolly said. He is stuck and he will never tell u anything risky about this company.
"The group said its quarterly profit was also affected by higher operating expenses, which mainly consisted of lower foreign exchange gain and impairment of goodwill."
what is the USD/MYR rate today? think for yourself...
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starperformer That news line reads:
"The group said its quarterly profit was also affected by higher operating expenses, which mainly consisted of lower foreign exchange gain and impairment of goodwill."
2) Short-term debts of RM 107.633m MUST be settled by next quarter release.
3) Cash balance will decrease from RM 141,018,000 to RM 31,519,197 or less (#Bank interest not calculated yet). Most likely to borrow more debts because it needs more cash to service the other LONG-TERM DEBTS of RM 108,952,000.
4) Over-reliant on ONE product that is MDF (80% revenues from it) which is hampered by the unstable pricing and raw materials because of hard wood prices.
5) Net profit margins run into negative and fluctuate not stable over the years. Go check for proof. Net profits falling for 5 consecutive quarters.
6) No dividends given out since year 2012 and most recent given out lousy RM 0.01 only on 20-04-2016. If a company amassed such huge debts, how do u think they will give out dividends with cash balance going to diminish?
I believe the debts will be increased in the next quarter release because they are running out of cash by then after they settled the short-term debts amount RM 107.633m. Cash balance will decrease more than usual. Just wait and see.
If Evergreen is so good as that idiot Dolly said and shout out then why the share price so disappointing and unable to breach above 1.00 mark? Don't preach the wrong things just because u are trapped in it.
U make monies...when the stock price is at its low...u then accumulate mah....!! Not shout...shout....buy when its share price at high like stockperformer on hevea mah.....!!
Just recently raider....has demonstrated the art of buying cheap of Evergreen at Rm 0.94 & below....now already make monies loh...!!
When u invest....big margin of safety & stock with management integrity very important loh...!!
Like Hevea...the management con 750% on related parties transactions u should be wary loh...!!
haha... well said raider... idiot like sxckperformer will only "assume" and "accuse" ppl of being stuck in Evergreen while we are actually making paper gain...
and he is so childish to even photoshop an example of "modified portfolio return" just to prove that it can be modified..
when I said childish, i really mean it.. and if i did the photoshop myself, yes, i am childish.. but i am not.
and when I challenged him on a "death curse" (since he is so confident I am stuck and I edited my return%), he kept quiet and ran away from answering that.. but at the same time, keep talking cxck on other nonsense... And keep repeating his so-called facts which I had slammed him hard in the past with solid proof.
syndicate controlled or by a group of institution working with a broker, for the debt issue all you have to do is measure the ev/ebitda to see the intrinsic value of the company, base on both technical and fundamental of the company i am 90% sure there will be a further upside till the fye annual report
But the technical price charts show that the uptick in price will take place tmrw or next week.The MACD line had crossed the signal line,indicating/signalling price uptrend.The RSI showed the share in bullish state.One day before slightly in overbought. Good luck and think the stock will gain in price.Some relief for investors.
How to have good result when Evergreen has mountains of debts amid the weaker demand for MDF? Cash calls will be needed to settle short-term debts of RM 107.633m. Most manufacturers have switched to particleboard segment and that is EXACTLY why Evergreen restarting its particleboard segment after years of shut down. Buy Hevea instead.
2) Short-term debts of RM 107.633m MUST be settled by next quarter release.
3) Cash balance will decrease from RM 141,018,000 to RM 31,519,197 or less (#Bank interest not calculated yet). Most likely to borrow more debts because it needs more cash to service the other LONG-TERM DEBTS of RM 108,952,000.
4) Over-reliant on ONE product that is MDF (80% revenues from it) which is hampered by the unstable pricing and raw materials because of hard wood prices.
5) Net profit margins run into negative and fluctuate not stable over the years. Go check for proof. Net profits falling for 5 consecutive quarters.
6) No dividends given out since year 2012 and most recent given out lousy RM 0.01 only on 20-04-2016. If a company amassed such huge debts, how do u think they will give out dividends with cash balance going to diminish?
102.573m / 5 = 20.5146m median average of NP for latest 5 quarters
RM 216,585,000 (Total debts) / RM 20,514,600 (NP: Median average) = 10.5x times
That means Evergreen needs at least 10-11 quarters or more just to break-even with the total debts while most competitors are already in net cash position! I have not taken into consideration of the interest charges of the giant debts over RM 216.585m so it will definitely take longer than 12 quarters just to break-even with that mountains of debts.
12 QUARTERS = 3 YEARS needed to break-even with giants of debts. That's if they do everything right & net profit does not fall further per quarter. Remember that it's NP has been falling for 5 consecutive quarters!
*Long-term borrowings interest: If based on 6.85% interest rate. RM 108,952,000 x 6.85% p.a. = RM 7,463,212 p.a.
(RM 7,463,212 p.a. / 12) x 3 months = RM 1,865,803 interest payment to banks per quarter. This will add up to the NP be reduced further hence longer period or more quarters just to break-even with the giant debts!
bro star..... evergreen has not done things the way it should be......if business is good dividend should follow thru...... close factory restart factory is not a good sign... less direction.....not achieving the gains
Evergreen is "RESTARTING" the particleboard segment after years of suspension. Why is that so? The story dates back to years ago when it decided to focus mainly on MDF segment and chose to suspend particleboard segment. Little did they know that they have became "OVER-RELIANT" over the years mainly on ONE product segment and this is RISKY and not diversified hence it is susceptible to price fluctuations of MDF in the world market bids pricing.
EVERGREEN's Annual Report 2015, Page 17: ".....Our Particle Board plant remained idle since 2013..."
EVERGREEN's Annual Report 2015, Page 19: ".....The upgrading of the Particle Board Press will enable us to produce premium particleboards for specific markets of higher profit margin...."
Since Evergreen's 80% revenues are from MDF segment so THAT IS THE REAL REASON WHY EVERGREEN's PROFIT MARGINS ARE SUBDUED & NOT STABLE OVER THE YEARS. Due to MDF not able to give the company higher profit margins, Evergreen has to embark & venture into other product segments especially the new RTA and the abandoned particleboard segment again.
EVERGREEN Medium density fibreboard (MDF): 80% of revenues contribution Value-added MDF: 15% of revenues contribution Ready-to-Assemble (RTA): 5% of revenues contribution
Why buy debt-laden Evergreen? Should avoid Evergreen because....
It is OVER-RELIANT of ONE PRODUCT SEGMENT that is MDF at 80% revenues. Not diversified. It has RM 216,585,000 of both long-term and short-term debts. U should start to worry by now because Evergreen's share price does not move much & always forever CAPPED BELOW 1.00 MARK.
LOL safer to buy Hevea mah compared to Evergreen which has mountains of debts. Ur evergreen needs to settle that giant short-term debts because the upcoming is Quarter 4 year ending loh. How much is that short-term debts and cash balance? Most likely Evergreen will raise debts again because not enough cash after settling the short-term debts.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
HowAh
963 posts
Posted by HowAh > 2017-02-06 17:39 | Report Abuse
Greennnnn.... Greennnnnn. Phone ringing liao....