Russia and Saudi Arabia have overcome all hurdles to cut oil production at a meeting of OPEC, ending a month-long price war. Oil prices jumped after Reuters reported that the two countries have agreed to a "deep cut" in crude production. OPEC and other oil producers were set to debate on Thursday oil cuts as big as 20 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to about 20 percent of global supplies, one OPEC source and a Russian source told Reuters. "That is a global deal," the OPEC source said. He did not specify if the United States would be involved - something Russia and OPEC producers have insisted on. A worldwide lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic has cut fuel demand by roughly 30 percent and contributed to a crash in prices that took major benchmarks down by more than two-thirds. Prices surge Prices surged over 10 percent earlier on Thursday as producers appeared set to cut production sharply, but the exact details of the cuts remain unclear. The OPEC and allies including Russia - a group known as OPEC+ - were in talks on Thursday to cut production sharply, with numbers as high as 20 million bpd bandied about, OPEC and Russian sources said. That would be equivalent to about 20 percent of global supplies, to support prices hammered by the coronavirus crisis. However, it is unclear if a figure that lofty includes cuts made for economic decisions by private producers in the United States, Canada and elsewhere, or if OPEC assumes those countries will mandate cuts, which the US has not wanted to do. A cut of 20 million bpd would be by far the biggest output cut ever agreed by OPEC. But Russia has insisted it will only reduce output if the United States joins the deal. US laws prevent coordination among private companies. Analysts, meanwhile, said that even if such record cuts are agreed, they will not be enough. "Ultimately, the size of the demand shock is simply too large for a coordinated supply cut," analysts at Goldman Sachs said on Thursday. Following the OPEC+ meeting, energy ministers from the Group of 20 major economies are set to meet on Friday. The last OPEC meeting in early March ended acrimoniously, with Russia and Saudi Arabia unable to come to an agreement to curb output as the virus spread, adding to the slump in prices. A source briefed on Saudi Arabia's oil policy said it is ready to cut up to 4 million bpd of its production, but only from its record output levels of 12.3 million bpd achieved in April. Russia has said it wants output to be cut from the January-March levels before Saudi production jumped.
Opec producers and allies have agreed to cut output by more than a fifth to counter the slump in demand caused by coronavirus lockdowns. The group said it would cut output in May and June by 10 million barrels to help prop up prices. The cuts will then be eased gradually until April 2022.
Opec+, made up of Opec producers and allies including Russia, held talks on Thursday via video conference. Talks were complicated by disagreements between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The group and its allies agreed to cut 10 million barrels a day or 10% of global supplies. Another 5 million barrels is expected to be cut by other nations.
It said the cuts would be eased to eight million barrels a day between July and December. Then they would be eased again to six million barrels between January 2021 and April 2022. Oil prices slumped in March after Opec+ failed to agree cuts .
In the wake of the March meeting, Saudi Arabia and Russia moved to boost production in order to retain market share amid falling global demand. That, together with the collapse in demand for oil amid the coronavirus pandemic, help to push oil prices to 18-year lows by the end of March.
Prices have recovered some ground since then. Last week, prices jumped 20% after US President Donald Trump said he expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to end their feud.
Thursday's talks will be followed by a conference call on Friday between energy ministers from the G20 countries. It will be hosted by Saudi Arabia.
Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's wealth fund and one of Moscow's top oil negotiators told Reuters: "We are expecting other producers outside the Opec+ club to join the measures, which might happen tomorrow during G20."
The US has not committed itself to any cuts although it did say that its oil output was gradually reducing anyway due to plunging oil prices. President Donald Trump had warned Saudi Arabia that the US would impose sanctions if it did not cut oil production.
Michel Salden, head of commodities: "Today's 'deal' did not bring much clarity so far and looks more like an invitation to the G20 energy ministers to agree on a 5 mbpd cut tomorrow which would bring the overall cut in oil output to 15 mbpd."
UNITED ICAP:
Scott Shelton, energy specialist: "While OPEC is cutting as expected, there is simply too much crude in the physical space for sale, with too few pipelines to move it and too few buyers to take it. The most expensive priced oil in the U.S. is Cushing WTI for May and that is likely to lead us to lower prices regardless of what OPEC does."
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS:
Michael Tran, managing director of energy strategy: "The market’s muted price reaction is a sobering indicator of the headwinds that remain, namely demand destruction. An acute near-term surge in crude prices would cripple refining economics and result in further run cuts."
WELLS FARGO:
Roger Read, senior energy analyst: "Until the extreme social distancing economic shutdown measures are significantly relaxed across North America, Europe and parts of Asia, OPEC+ supply cuts are simply playing catch-up at best."
BAIRD
Ethan Bellamy, senior analyst: "10 million barrels per day is insufficient to balance the market.... OPEC’s only real choice to bring the U.S. and other higher-cost producers along is to allow price to ration supply. With half a trillion in reserves, we think the Russians can outlast U.S. producers in a fight for market share."
RYSTAD ENERGY
Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets: "A 10 million-bpd deal is far lower than what the market needs at the moment. And even that seems to be of a fragile nature, as OPEC+ producers appear to struggle to agree, dragging negotiations longer than expected."
GOLDMAN SACHS
"Our updated 2020 global oil balance suggests that a 10 million barrels per day (bpd) headline cut (for an effective 6.5 million bpd cut in production) would not be sufficient, still requiring an additional 4 million bpd of necessary price induced shut-ins."
MIZUHO
Bob Yawger, director of energy futures: "It will only slow filling of storage. It's not going to save the day, but it's better than nothing."
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said a production cut of as much as 10 million bpd would still result in a 15 million-bpd buildup of crude in the second quarter.
BCS GLOBAL MARKETS
Kirill Tachennikov, director and senior oil analyst: "It is not technically possible to achieve these numbers in less than a month, and it is not enough to offset current oversupply that is exceeding 20 million bpd as it stands. As a result, the challenges of oil storage gradually filling up is still a very real issue." - Reuters
fast fast no more 0.070 buying!! Going to break 0.070!! Towards to 0.035!! All oil and gas dumping!! dayang, hibiscus are crashing getting serious!! Run run run!!
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia plans to announce its crude prices for May on Sunday, a source told Reuters, having delayed the official release until after it finalizes a global oil supply cut deal.
The Secret Weapon Giving Mexico Power in the Oil Price War
(April 12, 2020, 1:37 AM GMT+8 Updated on April 12, 2020, 5:22 AM GMT+8)
As Mexico and Saudi Arabia fight over a deal to bring the oil-price war to an end, Mexico has a powerful defense: a massive Wall Street hedge shielding it from low prices.
With talks well into their third day, the Mexican sovereign oil hedge, which insures the Latin American country against low prices and is considered a state secret, is a factor that may make the country less inclined to accept the OPEC+ agreement.
For the last two decades, Mexico has bought so-called Asian style put options from a small group of investment banks and oil companies, in what’s considered Wall Street’s largest -- and most closely guarded -- annual oil deal.
The options give Mexico the right to sell its oil at a predetermined price. They are the equivalent of an insurance policy: the country banks all gains from higher prices but enjoys the security of a minimum floor. So if oil prices remain weak or plunge even further, Mexico will still book higher prices.
The hedge isn’t the only reason Mexico is holding out. But it strengthens the country’s hand and makes it less desperate for a deal than countries whose budgets have been ravaged by the collapse in oil prices since the start of the year -- first because of the coronavirus and then because of the price war launched by Saudi Arabia.
The main reason driving President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a left-wing populist, to resist the deal is his pledge to revive oil production via state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos. Slashing 400,000 barrels a day to comply with the OPEC+ deal, rather than the 100,000 barrels a day that Mexico has counter-offered to Saudi Arabia, would put on hold his ambitious plan to return Pemex to its former glory.
The hedge has shielded Mexico in every downturn over the last 20 years: it made $5.1 billion when prices crashed in 2009 during the global financial crisis, and it received $6.4 billion in 2015 and another $2.7 billion in 2016 after Saudi Arabia waged another price war. The operation comes at a cost. In recent years, Mexico has spent about $1 billion annually buying the options.
“The insurance policy isn’t cheap,” Mexican Finance Minister Arturo Herrera told broadcaster Televisa on March 10. “But it’s insurance for times like now. Our fiscal budget isn’t going to be hit.”
Pemex, the state-owned company, has its own separate, smaller oil hedge. This year, Pemex hedged 234,000 barrels a day at an average of $49 a barrel.
Mexican president's nationalist oil vision fuels standoff with Saudis
(Business News April 12, 2020 / 6:18 AM / Updated 4 hours ago)
MEXICO CITY/DUBAI (Reuters) - The biggest supply cut ever contemplated by the world’s top oil producers is hanging in the balance as a refusal by Mexico’s leftist leader to imperil his plans to rebuild state oil company Pemex has angered the Saudi prince who helped craft the deal.
For the past three days, Mexico has kept the oil industry on tenterhooks by resisting Saudi pressure to sign up to global cuts worth nearly a quarter of output for participating countries, aimed at reviving prices from their lowest level in decades.
Prices have collapsed as the new coronavirus outbreak has shuttered economies around the world and destroyed demand for fuel.
The refusal by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to compromise his plan to revive Pemex by agreeing to steep cuts has shone the global spotlight on Mexico as he prioritizes his domestic agenda over the collective interests of the world’s largest oil producers.
Determined to shore up the money-losing and heavily indebted Petroleos Mexicanos, as Pemex is officially known, Lopez Obrador offered only a cut of 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), rather than the 400,000 bpd the group of global producers sought.
In a compromise hammered out with U.S. President Donald Trump, Lopez Obrador said on Friday the United States had offered to cut an additional 250,000 bpd on Mexico’s behalf, bringing them close to the target.
However, Saudi Arabia - the heavyweight of global oil diplomacy - has balked at that and dug in its heels, despite some other producers from the group of OPEC nations and their allies - known as OPEC+ - calling for the cuts to go ahead regardless.
Lopez Obrador, a staunch advocate of non-intervention in other countries’ affairs, defended his stance on Friday, harking back to a time Mexico was “strong” and “self-sufficient” in oil.
“There were stories in the papers trying to blame us, that there wasn’t a deal because of us,” the 66-year-old president told reporters, adding that Mexico could not afford the 23% production cut asked of it, but had offered 5.5%.
“Mexico is doing its bit.”
Lopez Obrador’s insistence on the importance of rescuing Pemex was crucial in the arguments he used to persuade Trump to help out, a senior Mexican official told Reuters.
Meanwhile, his representative at the OPEC+ talks, Energy Minister Rocio Nahle, upset some other countries, notably the host Saudi Arabia, whose negotiator Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman argued that making exceptions could encourage others to dodge output commitments, according to several delegates.
“If OPEC+ accepted this and everybody who doesn’t like the numbers can just withdraw or leave, then we are in for a really bad time,” said one OPEC source.
The source said Nahle, who only last month signed up to smaller planned cuts, was intransigent over the proposed reductions.
For producers, the cuts are bitter but necessary medicine for low prices. Iraq is relying on oil revenue to rebuild after years of brutal internal conflict, and yet committed to reductions of 1 million bpd.
The world’s top #oil producers pulled off a historic deal on April 12 to cut global crude output and put an end to a devastating price war: Bloomberg reports. OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million.
Which companies on Bursa have high cash and low debt KUALA LUMPUR: The second extension of the movement control order to contain the Covid-19 outbreak — now totalling six weeks until April 28 — means that economic activities will remain subdued for at least another 14 days. The pandemic, which has infected nearly two million and killed over 100,000 worldwide, presents the worst start possible for the recession expected ahead. As the infection curve has yet to near its peak, it is anyone’s guess on the depth of the economic downturn. Against this backdrop, survival is the prominent concern now. Investors’ attention is drawn to companies’ balance sheets instead of growth prospects, which is widely expected to be minimal in the best-case scenario, as business volume dwindles and operating cash flow shrink. Asia Analytica data shows that of some 880 listed companies (after excluding the 40 banks, insurers and investment trusts), 597 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia have cash that is less than their short-term liabilities. Companies in many different sectors are underlined here, from furniture companies to retailers, automotive-related firms, and a wide range of manufacturers and trading companies. Meanwhile, 223 listed companies have an interest cover ratio of below one times, meaning their earnings before interests and tax cannot cover interest expenses for a full year. The market capitalisation of most of these companies are below RM2 billion. Some 321 companies were already in the red last year. Of the 599 profitable ones, around 45.6% of them saw profit decline in the period. Again, most on the list are small-cap firms, according to Asia Analytica data. It is also worth noting that the economic downturn would be a tough test on companies’ sales quality. Companies with a high portion of credit sale with mounting receivables could be at risk amid the potential cash trap. A random check shows that 75 listed companies or 8.2% have net gearing of over 100%. Sectors with the most companies in this category are logistics, construction, oil and gas, building materials and property development. Others with net gearing of above 80% include power companies, telecommunications companies and building materials companies. Power producers’ liabilities are usually backed up by the steady cash flow from power purchase agreements. On the flip side, notable sectors with low net gearing average include Internet and gas utility companies, and technology solution providers. Of 79 generic companies with market capitalisation of above RM2 billion (ex-banks, real-estate investment trusts and insurers) only 22 have a cash ratio of above one times and net gearing of below 50%, led by Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd, Petronas Gas Bhd and IOI Corp Bhd. As reflected by the price-to-book valuations, preference is given for companies with high cash, low debt, steady recurring income and high-quality clients, such as tech companies, and broadband providers. There are also lesser-known small-cap companies that are cash-rich with sturdy past operations. As a fund manager pointed out that a downturn is a brewing pot for merger and acquisition activities, as smaller, cash-rich companies with good assets or business prospects usually become undervalued after the market selldown. The first quarter’s (1Q20) financial result will show how much cash was exhausted amid the two-week shutdown in the second half of March, while prospects of the entire half of 2Q20 being under movement restriction are still visible.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tkl88
8,712 posts
Posted by tkl88 > 2020-04-10 00:57 | Report Abuse
Russia and Saudi Arabia have overcome all hurdles to cut oil production at a meeting of OPEC, ending a month-long price war.
Oil prices jumped after Reuters reported that the two countries have agreed to a "deep cut" in crude production.
OPEC and other oil producers were set to debate on Thursday oil cuts as big as 20 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to about 20 percent of global supplies, one OPEC source and a Russian source told Reuters.
"That is a global deal," the OPEC source said.
He did not specify if the United States would be involved - something Russia and OPEC producers have insisted on.
A worldwide lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic has cut fuel demand by roughly 30 percent and contributed to a crash in prices that took major benchmarks down by more than two-thirds.
Prices surge
Prices surged over 10 percent earlier on Thursday as producers appeared set to cut production sharply, but the exact details of the cuts remain unclear.
The OPEC and allies including Russia - a group known as OPEC+ - were in talks on Thursday to cut production sharply, with numbers as high as 20 million bpd bandied about, OPEC and Russian sources said.
That would be equivalent to about 20 percent of global supplies, to support prices hammered by the coronavirus crisis. However, it is unclear if a figure that lofty includes cuts made for economic decisions by private producers in the United States, Canada and elsewhere, or if OPEC assumes those countries will mandate cuts, which the US has not wanted to do.
A cut of 20 million bpd would be by far the biggest output cut ever agreed by OPEC. But Russia has insisted it will only reduce output if the United States joins the deal. US laws prevent coordination among private companies.
Analysts, meanwhile, said that even if such record cuts are agreed, they will not be enough.
"Ultimately, the size of the demand shock is simply too large for a coordinated supply cut," analysts at Goldman Sachs said on Thursday.
Following the OPEC+ meeting, energy ministers from the Group of 20 major economies are set to meet on Friday.
The last OPEC meeting in early March ended acrimoniously, with Russia and Saudi Arabia unable to come to an agreement to curb output as the virus spread, adding to the slump in prices.
A source briefed on Saudi Arabia's oil policy said it is ready to cut up to 4 million bpd of its production, but only from its record output levels of 12.3 million bpd achieved in April.
Russia has said it wants output to be cut from the January-March levels before Saudi production jumped.