Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-23 11:39 | Report Abuse

Namoyaki - How do you know I read a lot??:-) But yes, I do - must keep my mind fully occupied and stimulated or else life would be so dull. As for JCY, things had been going so well until recently, after that last quarter report. The profits are actually still okay but since investors were expecting levels of the previous two quarters, they are bound to be disappointed.

The situation is further compounded due to its popularity with contra traders - when they cut loss, the price will slide further. It will stabilise once these contracts are settled or liquidated.

But what I'm more interested in is JCY's near-medium term price potential. Now the TP of 2.00 is no longer possible - at least not in the near future. Therefore, we will have to adjust accordingly by lowering the bar - to 1.50 perhaps? Will have to wait a bit for things to settle down and let it build a solid base first.

Posted by Genius Y > 2012-08-23 13:07 | Report Abuse

Analysis of JCY-HA ( Put Warrant)

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/structured-warrants/922748

Issuer : AmBank

Listing Date : 4 April 2012
Expiry : 28/2/2013
Conversion ratio : 2 JCY HA to 1 JCY
Last done Price : 0.06
Exercise Price : 1.22

1. Background : JCY is an outdated industry which mainly manufactures HDD hard drive. It is listed by the means of " offer of sales", means major shareholders selling shares and keep all the proceeds. This indicates owner himself is doubtful about the future in this company. It proves correct after the IPO where co falls into the red ink.

As for offer for sale of stock, the shares that investors subscribe to are from existing company owners. Therefore, the money raised from the new investors will be channelled to existing owners, which also means the existing owners will have cashed out a portion of their investments in those companies.

Even though this does not imply that Company A is not able to perform in future, investors need to understand that the remaining 75% of the shares or 1,534 million (0.75 x 2,045 million shares) owned by the existing owners are in effect “free” to them.

If Company A is fundamentally strong with good future prospects, then investors should not be too worried about the existing owners cashing out.

However, if the fundamentals of Company A start to deteriorate, investors need to be extra careful as the remaining 75% of the shares owned by the existing owners are now costless to them. Under such circumstances, every share the existing owners manage to sell into the market, regardless of the price, is extra gain for the owners.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/5/5/business/6190058&sec=business

2. Rebound : Thailand flood is a lucky factor for JCY where HDD hard drive is under supply and push up the price at that exceptional period of time.

3. Before exercise date, we still have 2 earnings announcement to await which can further push down the price of JCY.

December for Q4 2012
Feb for Q1 2013

4. Buy buying 2 warrants @ 6 cents now ( cost is 12 cents. We are in the money when JCY drops below 1.10 ( 1.22 minus cost of 12 cents).

5. In theory, JCY HA should cost :-

0.10, when JCY is 1.00
0.20, when JCY is 0.90
0.30, when JCY is 0.80

6. Please bear in mind that below Thailand flood, JCY is traded between 0.40 to 0.70 for the period of Feb - Nov 11.

7. Our maximum loss is limited, while maximum gain is unlimited, if JCY falls back to the original level.

Posted by Genius Y > 2012-08-23 13:07 | Report Abuse

Mat Cendana. Thanks for your thoughtful analysis. I agree.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-23 13:22 | Report Abuse

The put warrants ("H") that are supposed to be for traders who want to short a counter - It's a very useful option, especially when we feel that a counter is going down and we want to profit from it. But do our traders really know about its functions? The H warrants are supposed to go up in price when the counter goes down, and the other way when the mother share goes up. But most of the time this doesn't seem to be translated in the H warrants!

Posted by Genius Y > 2012-08-23 13:40 | Report Abuse

@ Mat Cendana. Thoughtful analysis again. It is also can use as hedge purpose for those who has exposure in mother shares. Steven Lee is right about the liquidity issue as well. Investors need to understand the mechanism before using this tool.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-23 14:12 | Report Abuse

Genius Y - Thanks for the information. You have given us all another option in trying to make some money. If one feels that the likelihood of JCY sliding is more probable than it going back up to the previous 1.50-60 level, indirectly shorting the counter through HA looks like a very good idea.

There is now interest in it - the range today is 0.055-0.085, although it could do with more volume. But this will likely come about when more traders learn about it.

You are right about its previous price range, of around a year or so ago. This is something which traders should note - there was that time when JCY was below 1.00. It was only after that very exceptional quarter that it climbed up and up. Unfortunately, it couldn't repeat the same in the recently announced quarter. What will the numbers be in the next one? There's a strong possibility it might be less.

The very popular JCY seems to have lost its aura among traders. The HA warrants are looking like a good bet. However, it would be prudent to pick up and not contra due to the current volume.

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-08-23 14:18 | Report Abuse

Warrants: Harta/Aset cair.

Posted by dknycom > 2012-08-23 14:32 | Report Abuse

JCY no more hopes today. Melting like ice cream....
RM 1.20 will finish today...

Posted by andyteng > 2012-08-23 14:33 | Report Abuse

unisem, notion, MPI too

Posted by dknycom > 2012-08-23 14:35 | Report Abuse

JCY today. NO EYES TO SEE...

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-23 14:37 | Report Abuse

Hope it rebounds a bit and force the HA warrant sellers to give these at a more reasonable price of 0.06/065. Right now, they are quoting 0.085. Too expensive.

Posted by dknycom > 2012-08-23 14:44 | Report Abuse

I AM AFRAID TOMORROW WILL BECOME RM 1.00 - RM 1.10 ONLY.
HOW NOW? SELL OR HOLD IT?

Posted by andyteng > 2012-08-23 14:48 | Report Abuse

sell, now technology production is low in 3rd quarter even 4th quarter lagi worst.

Posted by Kent Lee > 2012-08-23 14:48 | Report Abuse

lamken, whr r u?... going down like crazy now.... so RM4 possible ?...

Posted by andyteng > 2012-08-23 14:50 | Report Abuse

dun dream

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-23 14:51 | Report Abuse

There's always the possibility. But I feel it is more likely to rebound a bit. It has gone down a bit too much today, in addition to yesterday's loss. The seems to be a `mini-panic' among contra traders and that they are cutting loss and driving the price further down. There is an oversold situation, I think. But if the major shareholders are also dumping their shares, then it will definitely go down further.

Posted by RICKYSOON > 2012-08-23 14:54 | Report Abuse

@@!!!WAT HAPPEN.....LOSE MANY LIAO

Posted by wachin > 2012-08-23 14:56 | Report Abuse

regret n disappointed... never touch technology production stock in future...

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:01 | Report Abuse

huhuhuhu...chasing wind now pain!!

Posted by RICKYSOON > 2012-08-23 15:02 | Report Abuse

next support is??

Posted by HarryChin > 2012-08-23 15:02 | Report Abuse

WB will come out?

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:02 | Report Abuse

go go go mbf-wa now...cheap maa..

Posted by yanerfei > 2012-08-23 15:03 | Report Abuse

support 1.16 ! ?

Posted by DUnkin Lau > 2012-08-23 15:04 | Report Abuse

1.45 to 1.16......i am stuck there....to cut loss or to hold?

Posted by yanerfei > 2012-08-23 15:04 | Report Abuse

1.17 rebound soon

Posted by Ngai Chee Weng > 2012-08-23 15:04 | Report Abuse

wow, heavy drop

Posted by Kent Lee > 2012-08-23 15:05 | Report Abuse

all the sudden all those who claimed made huge profit from JCY gone missing... hahaha
TALK IS CHEAP....

Posted by surewinL > 2012-08-23 15:05 | Report Abuse

what to do? sell liao as seems shareholders also dumping la. Give back all the profit within 2days of trading. push push but no more strength. Believe it will drop to RM 1.1 today.

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-08-23 15:06 | Report Abuse

bought some @1.17

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:06 | Report Abuse

no...1.10 (1st) then 0.965(2nd floor)

Posted by HarryChin > 2012-08-23 15:06 | Report Abuse

near 4pm will have miracle?

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:07 | Report Abuse

no miracle but DISASTER...

Posted by DUnkin Lau > 2012-08-23 15:07 | Report Abuse

Really heavy drop. Hold or sell?

Posted by fzank > 2012-08-23 15:07 | Report Abuse

JCY = KINGS OF LAOSAI for today

Posted by DUnkin Lau > 2012-08-23 15:08 | Report Abuse

Really lao sai lao KAOKAO

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:08 | Report Abuse

SELL laaa...no HOPE..
STUCK 1YEARS..

GO MBF-WA...nyumm nyummm tommorow..!!!

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:09 | Report Abuse

1.13 and 1.14 range..

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:09 | Report Abuse

1.12 coming..

Posted by Steven Lee > 2012-08-23 15:09 | Report Abuse

don't panic at the first place, cut loss is a must when it rebound to your comfortable level.

Posted by surewinL > 2012-08-23 15:09 | Report Abuse

Aiyo coming close to 1.1 liao

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:09 | Report Abuse

dont buy 1.12..

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:09 | Report Abuse

1.12 now

Posted by DUnkin Lau > 2012-08-23 15:10 | Report Abuse

But it shows no sign of rebound....

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:10 | Report Abuse

4k lot wait at 1.10

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-08-23 15:11 | Report Abuse

MatC: Got 'Mini Panic' term also ya.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-23 15:11 | Report Abuse

My gosh! This is panic selling! 1.10-11

Posted by RICKYSOON > 2012-08-23 15:11 | Report Abuse

pain liao pain liao

Posted by necro > 2012-08-23 15:12 | Report Abuse

1.09 coming

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-23 15:12 | Report Abuse

contra players all throwing all at once?

Posted by Genius Y > 2012-08-23 15:12 | Report Abuse

JCY-HA should worth more right now.