Even though Yaris is a Toyota brand, investors need to understand that the model is actually using the 1.5L NR engine which is actually the same engine that is currently being used in the new Vios, new Rush, Perodua Aruz and the new Myvi. The engine is being produce by Perodua. Basically, Toyota is buying engines from Perodua and assemble it at the new plant in Bukit Raja for the Yaris model.
With Yaris having a sales target of 75,000 units in 2019 this would indirectly contribute to Perodua's bottom line. Indirectly, this will also help push MBMR profit as well.
At the current price, MBMR is still the cheapest automotive company in Bursa with PE of only 7x vs the industry average of around 15x PE. For me this does not make much sense given the company direct exposure to Perodua who is the market leader in Malaysia (normally that would carry a premium vs the industry average).
I am expecting MBMR to achieve a profit of RM200mil in FY19. But even if the profit was only RM185mil, MBMR would still be only trading at a mere 6.2x PE. As a comparison, UMW (another company with exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
Investors should expect MBMR to post better 1Q19 result vs 1Q18 (to be out end of May) mainly due to the good performance of Perodua during the first quarter. In March, Perodua managed to sell 23,300 cars to bring the total 1Q19 sales to 60,673 cars which is 9.2% higher compared to 1Q18 sales. Perodua’s 1Q19 sales was even higher than 4Q18 which is really encouraging given that 1Q of every financial year are normally the slowest quarter in term of car sales for the industry.
This year’s profit contribution to Perodua will also indirectly come from Toyota sales given that Perodua is actually producing (and selling back to Toyota) the engine used for Vios and the whole of Toyota Rush (which is actually a more expensive version of Perodua Aruz). For 1Q19 Toyota managed to record a sale of 13,723 units of which more than 70% is actually coming from the Vios model which is great for Perodua. The other 2 main models sold are Hilux and Rush (again this is good for Perodua).
However, there is still improvement to be made for Perodua especially in the sales of the new SUV Aruz. Perodua managed to sell 4,200 units of Aruz in the 1Q19 but investors can expect the sales of the SUV to increase rapidly from the 2Q onward given the healthy bookings that it received (more than 14,000 as of March).
All these will directly benefit MBMR’s bottom line for FY 19.
With MBMR trading at only 7x trailing PE and 6.2x forward PE, it is still the cheapest automotive company in Bursa. The average PE for the automotive industry is around 15x. As a comparison, UMW (another company with direct exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
There are some errors on my earlier post for the Aruz sales. Actually the total sales of the SUV in March was almost 3k units (apologise for the mistake). This bring the total deliveries of Aruz in 1Q19 to 6.6k units. Given that the SUV is expected to carry higher profit margins compared to other models, i am expecting MBMR's 1Q19 result to deliver a very good profit to shareholders.
5983 MBMR MBM RESOURCES BHD Final Single Tier Dividend 6 Sen T.E. Single-tier
Entitlement Details: Final Single Tier Dividend of 6.0 sen per ordinary share tax exempted underthe single-tier system in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2018.
Entitlement Type: Final Dividend Entitlement Date and Time: 14/06/2019 Year Ending/Period Ending/Ended Date: 31/12/2018 EX Date: 12/06/2019
Some updates from the 2018 annual report. Most of the information found in the report are already known. The 2 new information that i think are relevant for investors are :
1) Management decision to focus on existing assets. Basically, management are indicting that there will be limited capex spending in FY19. This bode well for investors as it gives potential for management to pay higher dividend for the year.
2) The imminent closure of the alloy wheel business (refer to page 142 under "subsequent events"). Management has indicated that the company will cease operation of the loss making subsidiary during FY19. This will help increase MBMR future earnings as it will no longer be drag by the high losses of the division. As a reference, even with an increase of production volume of around 30% in FY18, the division still recorded a substantial loss of around RM20mil ( albeit a lot lower than the loss recorded in FY17). If we take out OMIA performance from MBMR's overall result in FY18, the profit to shareholders would have jump to RM187mil instead of the reported RM167mil. In addition, there will be lesser need of working capital for the group which will help increase the free cash flow from operation even further. This could potentially gives management opportunity to pay shareholder with higher dividend in the future.
With MBMR trading at only 7x trailing PE and 5.9x forward PE, it is still the cheapest automotive company in Bursa. Excluding losses from OMIA (since it will cease operation this year), the trailing PE multiple would have only been 6.3x and fwd PE would fall to only 5.3x.
The average PE for the automotive industry is around 15x. As a comparison, UMW (another company with a direct exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
30-Apr-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 187,100 shares on 25-Apr-2019. 29-Apr-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 76,100 shares on 24-Apr-2019. 26-Apr-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,800 shares on 23-Apr-2019. 26-Apr-2019 Meeting Notice Annual General Meeting on 29-May-2019. 25-Apr-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 167,700 shares on 22-Apr-2019.
Toyota is expected to launch the new Avanza soon. And just like Vios, Yaris and Rush, the Avanza will also used the same engine as the new Myvi which is produce by Perodua (for Rush, the whole vehicle is actually being produce by Perodua). This provide another revenue and profit stream to Perodua and indirectly to MBMR as well.
Perodua sold 82,700 cars in Jan-Apr 2019 – 43% market share; almost 20,000 bookings for the Aruz
For the first four months of 2019, Perodua managed to deliver 82,700 units, which is not only 9.5% more than the same corresponding period in 2018 (75,500 units), but is the most number of vehicles the national carmaker has sold in the first four months of any year in its history.
“The sales figures, which are internally generated, show strong continued support for our products and we, along with the country’s automotive ecosystem, consisting mainly of suppliers and authorised dealers, are sincerely grateful for this endorsement,” said Datuk Zainal Abidin Ahmad, president and CEO of Perodua.
“While Perodua awaits the Malaysian Automotive Association’s (MAA) official total industry volume numbers, we believe that Perodua’s market share is above 43% for the four-month period, thus directly benefitting the domestic economy as a whole,” he added.
According to Perodua, it has spent RM1.8 billion on component purchases from local automotive suppliers from January to end-April 2019, and is set to fulfil its commitment of RM5.4 billion in component purchases for this year.
In April 2019, the company sold 22,100 units, 11% higher than the same month last year (19,939 units), but less than what was seen in March 2019 (23,286 units). The Myvi made up the majority of sales with 7,700 units, followed by the Axia (5,900 units), Bezza (4,200 units), Aruz (over 3,200 units) and Alza (1,100 units).
A point to note is the Aruz, the company’s only seven-seat SUV, recorded the highest number of registrations in April since it was launched at the start of the year. Datuk Zainal added that production of the model had to be accelerated to meet the encouraging demand.
“Since the order books for the Aruz opened on 3 January, nearly 20,000 bookings have been recorded, yielding an average of 170 bookings daily. And as of today, over 9,800 Aruz have been delivered since registrations began on January 31 – an average of more than 100 units daily – making it among the best-selling SUVs in the country,” Datuk Zainal explained.
“The Myvi continues to be our best-selling model – since its November 2017 launch we have delivered over 115,000 units to happy customers, who love the stylish looks, build quality, fuel efficiency, interior space and the amount of advanced equipment they get for the price,” he added.
Investors need to be reminded that not all companies will be highly affected by the tariff war between US and China. Those that will be affected will mainly be in the export market (however some will actually end up better if the trade war persist) since China is our biggest trade partner at the moment. Please do your analysis.
For MBMR which is highly dependent in Perodua performance, it actually has very limited correlation with what is happening between US and China as almost all of its sales are for the domestic market.
As it is at the moment, investors can expect MBMR's 1Q19 results to post continue growth in profit backed by:
1) robust sales of Perodua in the 1Q19 of 60,673 vehicles vs 55,568 units a year ago. In particular Aruz, which should command higher margins compared to other models recorded a sales of 6,600 units during the quarter.
2) New revenue stream coming from sales of Toyota. As mentioned in my earlier post, 2019 will provide new revenue stream for Perodua coming from the production agreement between the company and Toyota Malaysia. Perodua is producing the Rush (whole vehicle) and supplying the engines for Vios (Toyota's best selling model), Yaris and Avanza. The more sales toyota made , the more revenue Perodua will received which bodes well for MBMR.
3) Better sales of Proton will also help MBMR's auto components division record higher sales and profit.
4) The imminent closure of the alloy wheel business (refer to page 142 under "subsequent events" of 2018 annual report). Management has indicated that the company will cease operation of the loss making subsidiary during FY19. This will help increase MBMR future earnings as it will no longer be drag by the high losses of the division. As a reference, even with an increase of production volume of around 30% in FY18, the division still recorded a substantial loss of around RM20mil ( albeit a lot lower than the loss recorded in FY17). If we take out OMIA performance from MBMR's overall result in FY18, the profit to shareholders would have jump to RM187mil instead of the reported RM167mil. In addition, there will be lesser need of working capital for the group which will help increase the free cash flow from operation even further. This could potentially gives management opportunity to pay shareholder with higher dividend in the future. I would expect management to separate OMIA results from MBMR's other operations in the 1Q19 result. Hopefully this will provide better clarity to the investors.
With MBMR trading at only 6.9x trailing PE and 5.8x forward PE, it is still the cheapest automotive company in Bursa. Excluding losses from OMIA (since it will cease operation this year), the trailing PE multiple would have only been 6.2x and fwd PE would fall to only 5.2x.
The average PE for the automotive industry is around 15x. As a comparison, UMW (another company with a direct exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
06-May-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 269,300 shares on 30-Apr-2019. 02-May-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 474,800 shares on 26-Apr-2019.
Today we will see whether Bank Negara will decide to reduce the OPR by 25 basis point or not (0.25%). A reduction in interest rates bode well for all automotive companies as it would mean cheaper financing for prospective car buyers.
As predicted by most analysts, BNM had decided to reduce the OPR rate from 3.25% to now 3.0%. This should bode well for the auto industry as it will make buying vehicles a bit cheaper than before. Investors should expect Perodua (indirectly MBMR) to post better sales numbers starting from May onward.
With higher sales, profit also would most probably grow as well. Anyway investors should expect 1Q19 results which should be out by end of this month (probably after the AGM on the 29th) to show growth compared to 1Q18. My target profit for MBMR in FY19 is still at around RM200mil which will be backed by :
1) Robust sales of Perodua. In the 1Q19 alone, Perodua had managed to record a sales of 60,673 vehicles vs 55,568 units a year ago.This is the highest 1Q sales numbers ever recorded by the company. The new SUV Aruz, which should command higher margins compared to other models recorded a sales of 6,600 units during the quarter. 2Q19 should also provide further growth based on Perodua's April sales number of 22,100 vehicles vs Apr 18 sales of only 19,939 units. with the lower interest rates announce yesterday, we should expect the better sales numbers to continue throughout 2019.
2) New revenue streams coming from sales of Toyota. 2019 will provide new revenue streams for Perodua coming from the production agreement between the company and Toyota Malaysia. Perodua is producing the Rush (whole vehicle) and supplying the engines for Vios (Toyota's best selling model), Yaris and Avanza. The more sales toyota made , the more revenue Perodua will received which bodes well for MBMR.
3) Better sales of Proton will also help MBMR's auto components division record higher sales and profit.
4) The imminent closure of the alloy wheel business (refer to page 142 under "subsequent events" of 2018 annual report). Management has indicated that the company will cease operation of the loss making subsidiary during FY19. Closure of the loss making business would immidiately increase profit of MBMR by around RM20mil per year.
With MBMR trading at only 6.8x trailing PE and 5.7x forward PE, it is still the cheapest automotive company in Bursa. Excluding losses from OMIA (since it will cease operation this year), the trailing PE multiple would have only been 6.1x and fwd PE would fall to only 5.2x.
The average PE for the automotive industry is around 15x. As a comparison, UMW (another company with a direct exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
A lot of people are worried due to the trade war escalation between US and China last week. However, investors need to do some analysis first before making their decision on whether to sell a certain stock or not.
MBMR for example are quite neutral with the issue of the trade war given that most (if not all) of its sales and profit comes from the domestic market. The only exposure that it might have would be the currency fluctuation but given its main profit contributors comes from Perodua (which has a 90% local content) that itself is also limited.
In addition, the 1Q19 result to be out by end of this month would most probably see the company beat last years result quite comfortably given the Perodua sales recorded in 1Q19.
I am targeting MBMR to deliver a profit of around RM200mil in 2019 which means at the current share price the company is only being valued at a PE of 5.7x way below the industry average of 15x.
Second day of panic in the market. MBMR is also affected. However, the fundamental for MBMR still remain intact with 60,670 units of car sold in 1Q19, investors should expect the company to post good result at the end of this month (potentially on 29th May).
Another point for MBMR is that it is not a trade exposed company. ALL of its sales are in the Malaysia market. So even with the tariff imposed by US or China, it would actually have limited affect on its earnings and balance sheet.
Balance sheet is strong with the company being in a net cash position. The remaining debts are mostly trade debt in nature which means that it is backed by the inventories and its receivables. The company has successfully reduce its debt from a high of RM550mil in FY12 to only RM145mil as of Dec 18. Cash reserves is around RM200mil.
At the current price, the company is currently trading at a mere trailing PE of 6.5x and a forward PE of only 5.5x.
UMW which is a similar company with exposure to Perodua, is currently trading at a PE of almost 19x. The industry average of PE is still trading at above 15x.
MBMR is just too cheap at the moment given that it has a direct exposure to Perodua which is the market leader. In most cases, this would actually demand a premium to the average ( as what you see with UMW).
This bodes well for MBMR given that it is actually one of the main suppliers for Perodua under its subsidiary Hirotako Holdings especially for the wheel assembly, safety equipment (airbags, seat belts, steering wheels etc) and Noise, Vibration and Harness (NVH) products (sheet panels, carpet flooring, insulators etc). We should see better results from the manufacturing division in 2019.
That being said, main profit contributor would still comes from the 22.6% interest in Perodua.
Hey con man cheater Icon888, don't tipu lagi. EPF sell, you already scared and ask members to hold. You think you are clever while others are stupid. Go and get some real work and not try to con members money here.
Icon8888 don't be too alarmed by EPF disposals.
it doesn't necessarily mean coming Q result will be lousy.
don't believe me ? Go check the record. EPF has been systematically disposing since November 2016 16/05/2019 9:04 AM
Again you con man & cheater Icon8888 try to cheat some more. Members don't trust this conman, he said one thing and he does another thing. Better to trust a dog then to trust this conman Icon8888.
Icon8888 And bought more again ... 26/04/2019 3:06 PM
Actually the deterioration of the profit level since FY13 was mainly link to the under performance of the Group's alloy wheel manufacturing business under OMIA Alloy Sdn Bhd. The losses made from FY13 to FY17 are -RM12.8mil, -RM26.1mil, -RM25.4mil, -RM38.2 mil and -RM91.1mil respectively. However the FY17 losses of RM91mil was mainly due to a large impairment amounting to around RM60mil which means the total operational losses for FY17 was around RM30mil.
In FY18 the operation has improve with losses reducing to around RM20mil. With a big jumped in volume coming from Aruz in 2019, we should expect the losses for OMIA to be lower this year.
That being said, based on the 2018 annual report (refer to page 142), Management has decided to ceased operation of the alloy wheel business during the current FY. This would mean that MBMR profit level would no longer be dragged down by the losses of OMIA. As a reference, MBMR achieved a PATAMI of RM167mil in FY18 of which RM151mil comes from MBMR's 22.6% interest in Perodua . Excluding the losses of OMIA, the profit for the year would have jump to RM187mil. At the current share price this would mean MBMR is currently trading at a mere 6x trailling PE (excluding OMIA) which is less than half of the industry average of 15x PE.
Now for FY19, MBMR would most probably record a better profit level compared to last year mainly due to the performance of Perodua . In 1Q19 alone, Perodua managed to sell a total of 60,670 vehicle compared to 1Q18 sales of only 55,568 units. This includes a sales of 6,600 units of Aruz which is likely to deliver better profit margins compared to the other Perodua Models.
In addition to this, Perodua has also a production arrangement with Toyota to produce the Rush (in totality) and supply engines for the Vios, Yaris and Avanza (you will notice that all these 3 models are actually using engines similar to the new Myvi). This will provide new revenue and profit stream to Perodua which will benefit MBMR as well.
With all these in mind, I am targeting MBMR to deliver a PATAMI of RM200 mil in FY19 (not inclusive of the potential jump in profit once OMIA ceased operation). At the current share price, MBMR is only being valued at a mere 5.6x PE.
As a reference, UMW which is the only other listed company with exposure to Perodua, is currently trading at a PE of almost 19x.
I think it is better for you to study the fundamentals of a company first when making your investment decision rather than following someones else transactions. As an example, EPF bought heavily into Armada back in Nov 18 when its share price was above 40 sens only to sell aggressively the same stock in Dec 18 at a price of below 20 sens. This just show that sometimes even institutional investors make mistakes. Tabung Haji, Kwap, LTAT and even PNB also makes mistakes in their thesis. It would be better for you to do you own research on the merit of an investment (you should also counter check my thesis as well).
Con man & cheater Icon888, you think you are smarter than EPF which makes money for millions of Malaysians? EPF selling must have their reasons, otherwise they are not that stupid to kill the golden goose.
You got shares here and so you are damn scared if other members too sell and bring the price down and you won't make a profit but suffer losses.. If you are really good in investing and not con and cheat traders, then EPF would have employed you as one of their advisors but atlas you conman Icon888 is only a conman and nothing else. Whether members here want to sell is their business and not yours to control and scold people.
Posted by Icon8888 > May 16, 2019 9:04 AM | Report Abuse
don't be too alarmed by EPF disposals.
it doesn't necessarily mean coming Q result will be lousy.
don't believe me ? Go check the record. EPF has been systematically disposing since November 2016
Commonsense, EPF is keep disposing thru open market, doesn’t sound good to mbmr, why no fund manager or company is interest if is what you said such a good company?
If commonsense and u buy at 2.00 , just sell all get profit and out . No need go around asking ppl to buy mbmr , scolded like a street dog by others as I read .
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
cchin
574 posts
Posted by cchin > 2019-04-16 16:43 | Report Abuse
high volume .... good sign