Posted by New Insight Sabah > 2013-02-27 11:54 | Report Abuse

Mr Ooi, evidently you're wrong, your charts are wrong and your trading system is most unreliable. The fact is the price has fallen from 2.00 to 1.83 today since January 7. The price has fallen to a low of 1.77 in the last 4 weeks. At the time of writing the buying rate is 27%. It is futile and absurd to say your paroblic SAR is showing a buy signal now. If so, how do you explain the selling? It is no shame to admit that we're wrong when our mistakes are staring glaringly back at us. We're humans and we're not infallible. Investments entail risks and we've no one to blame but ourselves if we've made the wrong decision. Let's come down to Earth. Cheers.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-02-27 12:01 | Report Abuse

Please check your chart, 1.76 is a strong support. Since day 1 when I recommend this stock, I advise investor to cut loss at 1.73 which is 3 bids below the support of 1.76.

Parabolic SAR is showing a buy sign, hence we should not cut loss unless the price is below 1.73.

This is my strategy, final decision is yours.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-02-27 12:05 | Report Abuse

if you have to wait till 1.73 to cut loss, then your loss really jialat lo.

if you want to cut loss, just do it now ; if not , dont cut loss at 1.73, instead,* buy more to average it.

kuching gemuk dua cents comment.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-02-27 12:07 | Report Abuse

Feb 18, 2013 09:47 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Fat Cat,

No. Have not decided yet because 1.73 is not broken.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by gark > 2013-02-27 12:10 | Report Abuse

Market is irrational, get over it.

If the market give a discount, you also want to sell? or you rather buy?

The business is growing steadily, so far there is no sign of lowering growth. All fundamentals are positive.

Is no one looking at value of the business? Everyone is looking at the price only?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-02-27 12:19 | Report Abuse

@New Insight Sabah,

Please read my postings again and again, do not talk until you get your fact right.

I will say sorry loud and clear if I am wrong, I am not that proud person. I always say sorry if my recommendation is wrong.

You get your fact wrong. You are talking nonsense here.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by New Insight Sabah > 2013-02-27 12:25 | Report Abuse

Gark you're right. That's the point I've been trying to make all the while. We're buying a (small) part of the business; not shares.

Posted by New Insight Sabah > 2013-02-27 12:31 | Report Abuse

Thank you Mr Ooi, we'll let readers here be the judge. I'm flattered that you responded angrily to my "nonsense". That speaks volume. Have a nice day.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-27 12:36 | Report Abuse

FA and TA are two completely different strategies. I used to think I am right in my strategy and other strategies are wrong. But I think in finance and investment, nothing is right or wrong in each strategy. What is important is what are you good at and what works for you, consistently. Often we don't know much or are not good enough to say others' strategies are wrong. Of course sometimes things can be clearer, but not in this case. That is my opinion. I still like Ooi's strategy of buy good FA stocks, and entry (not exit for me) with TA.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-02-27 12:50 | Report Abuse

I will ensure I am 200% sure before I write here, it is my style.

You get your fact wrong and simply accuse people is not good here. Please check your fact before you talk bad about a person.

Very disappointed with your posting.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by Rambito > 2013-02-27 12:53 | Report Abuse

I use TA to recognize short term and FA for long and longer term!

Posted by lmf_hau > 2013-02-27 13:07 | Report Abuse

Kfima:-

On 11.01.13 , hitted 3 months high , closed RM 2.05 .

On 14.01.13 , Doji formed = mkt uncertain , caution , closed RM 2.08 (Profit +3c but just enought covering charges) ,

On 15.01.13 , Long down bar formed = sell signal confirmed by everning star , closed RM 2.02 (lose -3c)

On 16.01.13 , 2nd Long down bar formed = serious sell signal confirmed , closed RM 2.00 (lose -5c)

Strong support line RM 1.96

On 21.01.13 , super Long down bar formed = bearish confirmed , closed RM 1.89.

Confirmed has to cut loss.......

On 22.01.13 , continue long down bar formed = bearish continued , closed 1.86.

Jump to the window at Level 10 Floor.
______________________________________________________________________

Above sinario , was a investor buy 40x lots , has now suffered great lose b4 CNY 2013 , despite of technical reversal on going currently.

Can any 1 help to advice.

Mr Ooi.... ??
Kc Chong .... ??
New Insight Sabah ... ??

Posted by New Insight Sabah > 2013-02-27 14:02 | Report Abuse

Imf_hau, sorry unable to advise you. I'm not a chartist and I'm not good at TA. Always get it wrong. I'm a fundamental long-term investor with an average 10-year strategy. So I'm not affected by price fluctuations. Like many here I find this stock a good long term buy. As you can see, its price has been falling gradually and surely. I wouldn't be surprise if it keeps falling unabated until the powers that be decide that it has fallen enough to let it rise. Those who read charts must know that you are not the only ones reading them. It is the big boys with the financial muscles who call the shots. Charts can never predict how a stock will perform in the future.

Posted by lmf_hau > 2013-02-27 14:50 | Report Abuse

NIS,

Then Jialat loh ,, shd cut lose b4 its too late @ 1.73 ?

Posted by Melvin G > 2013-02-27 17:18 | Report Abuse

Hi Ooi any news from khsb for the privatizing ?

Posted by shirley1 > 2013-02-27 21:21 | Report Abuse

Mr Ooi, frankly I do respect ur strategy though I'm not a trader. :)

Posted by shirley1 > 2013-02-27 21:26 | Report Abuse

and I learned more and more how a trader think and trade :)

Posted by shirley1 > 2013-02-27 21:32 | Report Abuse

at least you maintain ur stance and decisive type of trader. unlikely the teacher chicken trader, dare not to maintain stance... always ending with ???

Posted by Blur > 2013-02-27 22:20 | Report Abuse

will fall below 1.50! take it or leave it, ur choice.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-02-28 00:33 | Report Abuse

@New Insight Sabah,

You are FA investor, please do not comment on TA, You know nut about TA and write here like TA sifu. Did you use my system ? Are you sure that it is the most unreliable ? Do you lose money using my system ? Did you read the chart of Kfima ? Do you know about daily Parabolic SAR ? Is daily Parabolic SAR bullish now ?

Very disappointed with your post. You do not have substance, please do not act here like a TA Sifu.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-02-28 00:48 | Report Abuse

otb , dont angry la.. but seriously, you bought kfima for almost 2 months already, still in losing position, all i have to say is... your TA is lousy. sorry for my straight forward... :P

Posted by necro > 2013-02-28 00:52 | Report Abuse

Wahhh...
Adding more petrol to fire...

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-02-28 00:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-02-28 01:16 | Report Abuse

Dear Fat Cat,

No system is 100%, as long as your chance to win is > 51%, it is good enough. I do not worry about KFima, I can afford to cut loss at 1.73. We do not measure the performance in 2 months, I measure it in a bit longer term.
Let me tell you a story. A worker getting his pay on daily basis is a financially poor worker. A worker getting his pay on monthly basis is a financially average worker. A worker getting his pay on yearly basis is a financially rich worker. Likewise, an investor counts his profit in a year is a rich investor. Do you want to be a rich investor or a poor investor ?

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by shirley1 > 2013-02-28 07:36 | Report Abuse

Who is the architect or soul of the system ?

Posted by aunloke > 2013-02-28 08:22 | Report Abuse

TA may call us to cut loss @ 1,73 but using business sense we should know that the value of business remains intact ( in fact is improving ) then why cut loss ? Cut loss should not be applied in Kfima ,and for it to drop to 1,50 which means 17% drop can you guess what will be for KLCI ,most likely below 1400. No, KLCI will not drop to this level unless something bad happen to our country.

Posted by wayne1982 > 2013-02-28 08:32 | Report Abuse

In my view, as long as the company is making money and you know its value, why cut loss? Unless something bad happen to the company. If it really drop below 1.50, should buy gain because its value is still there. Cut loss is for those trading people who doesnt want longer term investment.

Posted by anker > 2013-02-28 09:00 | Report Abuse

why so kind to promote any stock (unless you derive a benefit), & ended up all kinds of condemnations. the values of a stock is quite static until a major change of biz direction or global financial unheavels. just some syndicate push here & there for their own takings. having said that, all recommendations must end with.......caveat emptor!!

Posted by shirley1 > 2013-02-28 11:43 | Report Abuse

jus exchange of views.. not condemn :) if follower of FA, why no believe in this counter ler..

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-28 16:32 | Report Abuse

[KFima's 3QFY13 revenue increased marginally from RM117.4m in the previous corresponding year to RM119.5m in the current quarter (+1.8% y-o-y, -6.5% q-o-q) due to higher contributions from manufacturing and bulking divisions. Net profit rose to RM22.7m from RM14.8m y-o-y (+54.1% y-o-y, +19.4% q-o-q) with YTD earnings +11.4% despite declining CPO prices, and unexpectedly lower sales from the food division. The group‟s YTD performance has achieved 82% and 75% respectively of our FY13F revenue and net profit estimates which we assume would meet our full year forecast reaffirming our Outperform recommendation and TP of RM3.21.]
For me what matters most for a company which has steady businesses and long enough record of performance is the free cash flow (FCF) it produces. FCF is what the company receives as hard cash each year less whatever capital expenses required for maintaining its competitive advantage and future growth. Hence it is clear that it is this FCF available that the company can pay dividend, pay down debts, increase its cash holdings, do some other investments, buy back shares. The table below shows its cash flows from the last 5 years in thousands:
Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
CFFO 132346 139552 116823 59792 67049
Capex -26434 -24022 -19500 -23826 -32009
FCF 105912 115530 97323 35966 35040
Net income 116543 107502 86433 70627 43274
FCF/Revenue 22% 27% 24% 10% 11%
Dividend per share,sen 8.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 2.5

One can see the consistent FCF produced by Kfima in the last 5 years in an increasing trend, with FCF about the same as its net income; and FCF above 20% of revenue. I think besides those tobacco, liquor, empat ekor etc companies, you probably won’t find this type of excellent FCF from any other companies. Notice also the rising trend of dividend payment made possible by the excellent cash flows? But how is the cash flows of Kfima for the last few quarters?
The trailing twelve month net income attribute to common shareholders of Kfima increased by 14% to 92.2 m, or 34.4 sen per share after taking into the increased number of shares due to the ESOS. However for the 9 months ended fiscal year 2013 on 31 December 2012, CFFO decreased to 26.4m. FCF is negative for this period with capital expenses of 39m. This is mainly due to increased in receivables by 62m to 125.7m, and an increase in tax payment by 12m to 30m. However, its approximately 100 days of sales outstanding is actually its norm and last year’s low DSO is exceptional. Its net cash also reduced by about 10% accordingly, but with a net cash of 232m, its balance sheet is still very healthy. Hence for me this poorer cash flow may need to monitor a little, but it is not a concern for the time being.

Posted by New Insight Sabah > 2013-02-28 19:21 | Report Abuse

Do we need any proof than this that TA cannot predict how the market will perform?

Market close: Banking, plantations help KLCI avert monthly loss
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/231852-market-close-banking-plantations-help-klci-avert-monthly-loss.html

Contrast this with this:

Market open: KLCI edges up, but on course for monthly loss
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/mobile/article.php?id=231762&pid=1

Who is moving prices?

Charlatans aplenty here. If they are any good, they won't he hawking their useless wares here. Wise up!

Posted by sh2383jbt > 2013-02-28 21:54 | Report Abuse

Accumulate when down or wait after GE13. Don miss the boat.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-01 09:48 | Report Abuse

Actually this company's bane is that it has wayyyy too much cash. If they deploy the cash for expansion or distribute to shareholder, he price will jump significantly.

Anyway I look left, look right all over KLSE, I cannot find a share with so excellent FA results selling at PE 6x... at PE 20x however there are plenty. :P

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-01 10:04 | Report Abuse

try study oskh, it has similar characteristic (eps, pe, dy etc)

Posted by cfkhoo > 2013-03-01 10:17 | Report Abuse

when I exit KHSB, I will buy KFima for long term. This is definitely a non trading stock. A hidden gem waiting to be uncovered.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-01 10:43 | Report Abuse

Kumpulan Fima produces 130m+ of cash from its operations each of the last two years. After spending about 25m each in capital expenses, it still has about 110m of cash left termed as free cash flow (FCF) as shown.

Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
CFFO 132346 139552 116823 59792 67049
Capex -26434 -24022 -19500 -23826 -32009
FCF 105912 115530 97323 35966 35040

So what did they do with this FCF?

Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Dividend -26800 -15400 -13158 -7895 -6579
Pay debt -51608 384 -19229 -5330 32467
Sum -78408 -15016 -32387 -13225 25888

Example for last year, 26.8m dividend is paid out to common and minority shareholders, 51.6m was used to pay down debts, and still left with a lot of extra cash in the balance sheet. That is why you can see dividend payment increases every year and its debts getting lower and lower. Yeah, a lot of cash which will be handy when an investment opportunity comes around like buying more land for palm oil, making a positive net present value projects, buying an investment which can yield return of capital higher than the cost of capital etc. Or just distribute some special dividends to shareholders?

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-03 17:14 | Report Abuse

hi KCchongz, I know that DCF valuation method is suitable toderive intrinsic value for companies with stable postive cashflow every year. How would you value companies with volatile cashflow swinging between +ve and -ve (eg in early growth stages with a lot of acquisition etc in play) ? Appreciate your advise, I m looking at evergreen fibreboard as an example.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-03 18:49 | Report Abuse

DCF analysis is an art. You use some assumptions. In your case, you still can do the same DCF with your assumptions. First year how much, the following years how much etc. If it is negative, then you assume the company borrow money, or issues shares in order to get the cash for growth. Eventually your assumptions would be the company is finally producing certain steady cash flows, with certain growth and terminal growth etc. Then you discount all these positive and negative cash flows back to the present value with certain discount rate. This will be a lot harder and much more subjective than a company which is already producing steady cash flows. But the point is, DCF is really an art which could likely be wrong. Hence it is advised that you must have a safe margin of safety above the calculated intrinsic value if you invest in that company.

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-03 23:55 | Report Abuse

Hi KC, thanks for the advise. Do you apply DCF analysis for all your studies or are there other methods you deploy depending on stock ? For example , I read about absolute P/E method of valuation from the book Active value investing in range bound market. What's your opinion on that method (If you;ve read the book) ?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-04 11:55 | Report Abuse

houseofordos, yeah I do DCF analysis for all the shares I am interested to invest in. It is already built in my spreadsheet. It is the method used in finance (If you learn about finance then you will know what I mean). However I don't say it is a correct way to do when doing actual investing because there are also a lot of criticisms about this method, in particular the forecast future cash flows, the discount rate etc. As a matter of fact, few investors used them. But that is me. You don't have to be the same.

Regarding PE ratio method of valuation, whether absolute or relative, they have their advantages too, especially its simplicity and most people understand it. Some PE ratio method also incorporates other variables such as business risk, financial risk, earnings visibility, growth expectation, dividend yield etc which are quite good too. However, simplicity doesn't mean best too, does it? In fact I find they have a lot of short comings. EPS can be and often twisted, prodded and squeezed into various numbers depending on how you do the books. The result is that we often don't know whether we are comparing the same figures, or apples to oranges.

Hence I normally use a variety of ways to value a stock and when every method converges, then I will take the necessary action in investing.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-04 16:40 | Report Abuse

DCF theory is easy to learn, the calculations is easy to do.

But it's the 'assumptions' of future returns cause most DCF calculation to veer into 'longkang'.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-04 16:42 | Report Abuse

If it is sooooo easy to estimate future earnings 'accurately'... everyone will be millionaire by now. :P

Posted by Hustle > 2013-03-04 16:44 | Report Abuse

That why sometimes you have to ask the aunty how to predict 4D,by the way they only use 1 bible for their prediction :)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-04 18:21 | Report Abuse

gark, yeah, estimating future cash flows is the most hazardous endeavor and hence I agree with you many DCF valuations can be chucked into "longkang". The other thing is if DCF analysis is so exact and investors react to them, that the richest people in the world would be those university finance professors. But somehow if you find that a company's business is so good and you want to invest in it, don't you think you have to approximately have a feel of its value before having an idea what price you should pay for it? DCF is just one of the ways to have a feel of the value of a business. For me if I am interested in a good company and wish to invest it, I do some valuations using some conservative assumptions. And when I get the value, I still won't buy it unless it is selling at a comfortable margin of safety as advocated by Ben Graham. Ben's famous follower, Warren Buffet always talk about the value and price of an investment., even at the latest Berkshire Hathaway AGM recently. That is:

"a business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if the price paid is excessive."

Posted by gark > 2013-03-04 19:15 | Report Abuse

Yes, DCF is not a definitive guide but mere a glimpse into the intrinsic value of the share. Share value can not be calculated, it is estimated. And most of the estimates is wrong, even warren buffet admits that hence he buys easy to understand business.

So I believe those TA signals, TP, over bought/sell etc etc is all 'noise'. If you cannot or not willing to keep the shares for longer term prospects (ie. short term gain) better don't touch it.

For me I rather approach purchasing of shares like I am buying the whole entire company. If the entire company looks good enough after doing due diligence, and have margin of discount then it is a good buy.

Buy shares like you buy steaks in the supermarket, buy when they are on sale. :)

Posted by jtpc2006 > 2013-03-06 12:01 | Report Abuse

KFima management, you got a terrific good company, make the share price go up higher pls!

Posted by gark > 2013-03-06 16:25 | Report Abuse

I rather Kfima concentrate to make the business better rather than concentrate to make the price higher...

Posted by jtpc2006 > 2013-03-06 17:28 | Report Abuse

both would be better :))

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-06 17:55 | Report Abuse

What is the main objective of the management?
The objective is to build value and then let the price reflect that value. Focusing on pushing up the share price instead of concentrating in improving the business is a unsustainable short-term measure, often compromising the interest of the minority shareholders. Read about "Conspiracy Theory: The true Enron story", you will understand what it means. At home, we have the examples of management too interested in share price rather than its business such as Octagon,MasterSkill, Permaju, Ivory, London Biscuits, KNM etc etc. Look who eventually suffer?

Posted by mogul88 > 2013-03-07 15:13 | Report Abuse

Guys, can ask is the value of going to be affected with ESOS exercise by Kfima? ESOS price at 1.48 lower than market price of 1.83. Thank you.