hahaha, of course, most of the stock sold today and last few day ago (Maybank, MKland, CAP, WCT, WCT-WD, IWCITY, GOB) all realize contra and paper profit already, and free up most of the capital, and give me a lot more power to bargain hunt on Puncak within the next 2 week before 1 Oct :D)
Here is a joke: Why are analysts called analysts? That's because they can only give you what they have ingested, digested and excreted anally! For those who are vocab challenged, excretion, especially anally, is a classy term for sh*t!
roger, did I offend you in any way, you sound sarcastic? Or, is anything wrong with my valuation on Puncak that has cost you dearly?
Am I down? Yes. Am I panic? Hope not, I have actually increased my position in Puncak through warrants for the past week. Feeling bad though, cause I have introduced this share to some friends, and actually has a few buying with 2 still holding. Probably that's why I have been feeling bad and down.
hng33, I have been holding Puncak believing that water restructuring is unavoidable and Puncak is deem to benefit from it, have it sold or have a rate increase while keeping the business. Though, the price differential between Puncak and its warrant had me concerned.
Again, it proved again that Puncak share is very dependent on water deal progress. Last week, it gap up 20sen, but turn out that it is condition precedent in maser agreement between state (Air Selangor) and Fed (PAAB), and Air Selangor only is expect to take over syabas and PNSB on 1 Oct, share price then under pressure, profit taking set in. Yesterday, Puncak extension due 14 sept, but Air Selangor still yet to fulfill condition precedent in SPA between Air Selangor and Puncak, then have to grant final extension until 15 Oct in order to accomodate Air Selangor take over time frame. Today, Puncak again react negatively, closed 2.59.
Once, again, Puncak share weakness and it will last until Air Selangor official take over syabas and PNSB. Therefore, in next 2 week time is good bargain time to accumulate more Puncak on weakness, before it gap up again once RM 1.55bil is full paid to Puncak and take over complete.
I see these is opptunity, therefore, have free up most of the capital from other stock, get all ready capital to bargain hunt more on Puncak weakness in next 2 week time :D)
Please remember, in stock investment, be a more savvy investor/trader, we should happy accumulate weakness stock when people are dumping, and happy sell stock to realize deserve profit when people are pumping, in between buy and sell, there is time needed for gestation. Therefore, be positive minded and calm down and have investment plan, instead of fainted lar...bad mouth lar....desperate lar....loser minded lar...bla bla
KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 15): Pengurusan Air Selangor Sdn Bhd (Air Selangor) will have to pay the water concessionaires in the state, namely Puncak Niaga (M) Sdn Bhd (Puncak Niaga), Syarikat Bekalan Air Selangor Bhd (Syabas) and Konsortium Abass Sdn Bhd, by February next year, said Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry secretary general Datuk Loo Took Gee.
Speaking to the media at World Class Water Management and Technologies for a Sustainable Future today, Loo said once the payments are made, Air Selangor would start the process of taking over the water treatment assets from the companies.
However, there is one concessionaire, Syarikat Pengeluar Air Sungai Selangor Sdn Bhd (Splash), left that has yet to agree to the sale of its water treatment plant to Selangor government due to pricing issue.
Commenting on this, Loo said state government has one year effective from Sept 8 to make an offer to Splash.
Yesterday, Puncak Niaga Holdings Bhd (PNHB) had warned that it will consider terminating the sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with Air Selangor, and take possible legal action if the conditions precedent in the agreement could not be fulfilled by Oct 15.
The threat of terminating the SPA came when PNHB has agreed to an eighth extension on the stop date of the SPA by one month to Oct 15 from Sept 14. And the group warned that this is the "final extension".
Loo is just the Green, Tech dept GenSec. It's Azmin and Roxali's words that counts. Azmin is under pressure to take over. SPLASH, as I have said, is nice to have but not essential. SPLASH's value was inflated in Gamuda's books. For RM250 - 300 million, SPLASH's water processing plant can be replaced with even more efficiently machinery/systems. So it's Puncak and it's 70% owned SYABAS which owned the water distribution pipes that's important - without SYABAS, there would be no water restructuring. Neither can SPLASH nor anyone distribute water without SYABAS.
1. state handing over 2 billion asset as collateral to federal for 2 b fund 2. paying puncak for sybas and puncak sdn bhd 3. KPS seeking shareholder approvals to sell asset before getting paid 4. further negotiation between splash and state on selling price before sealing a deal 5. state seeking for fund should splash price is higher than earlier allocation
the biggest uncertainty, to me, is on (1) will azmin hand over 2 b asset for fund, which is why I have been edgy for a while
Last week, both state and fed alrdy sign leaseback and licence agreement, fulfil last condition precedent in the master agreement and the master agreement now become unconditional already. Therefore, both state and fed are now legally bounded to execute master agreement, namely transfer 2 b state water asset as collateral in exchange for RM 2 b cash. These take few week time, once Air Selangor received Cash, it will then make payment to Puncak to fulfill last condition precedent in SPA, then only entire water disposal is consider complete.
No problem, investment always come with certain risk, but I take calculated risk in Puncak. Currently, my average cost on Puncak is about 2.633. I will try to bargain hunt more on Puncak weakness to average down the holding cost to below 2.60 if possible before 1 October. I expect another gap up about 20 sen to up to 2.80, once Puncak announce completion date after it received payment 1.55 b from air Selangor.
By February is refer to another water concession, Abbas, 91% own by KPS. KPS and air selangor must first both agree the take over price, then agree to sign SPA, then, KPS need to issue circular to shareholder and after that, KPS must issue notice of EGM to shareholder, held the EGM to seek shareholder approval and lastly air selangor make cash payment RM 91m to KPS, it will take about 3 - 4 month to complete.
On the other hand, Puncak already reach tail end process, it is now just waiting Air selangor to make payment RM 1.55 b to complete the deal, therefore Air selangor is expect to take over Puncak water assest by 1 October.
Of course sometime reporter write the news based on their understanding, and it also happen in so called professionals analyst as well, they can make buy call, sell call and hold call, but their accuracy is in doubt ......and ,osk of the time, these analyst target price for stock under their coverage can be either too over optimistic or too under pessimistic
In addition, their call can change based on their own discretion interpretation with most of the time information are quarterly based on true figure, quarterly based on assumption, but another quarterly may based on inaccurate figure and last quarterly may based on adjustment on valuation to suit on current market condition and buiness prospect.
After reading all you guys comments, I think all of you qualified to be MD for PUNCAK, KPS, SPLASH, SYABAS, GAMUDA!From facts to figures, not a single one of you is wrong.
So, In conclusion: Wait until 15 October 2015 (1 month) for the execution. Should extension shouted again by Azmin Ali (payor), court case ensured (according to Rozali-He threatened before during the 6th extension)
Question is, what happened after 15th October, 2015?
Why Azmin Ali still hesitate to the completion of the deal? Anybody knew his stand?...
As for me, I think Azmin is stubborn and tactful at the same time. Over the numerous extensions, who doesn't get upset when many projects are put on hold due to Azmin's repercussions? IF anyone of you is Rozali,what will you do?
Reading from news,the latest issue, when Azmin was stopped by DAP to work with PAS, Azmin insisted on work coalition with PAS no matter what. This shows Azmin (a newbie in political arena and race based-elected Minister during the GE13) could be hard to bend over. I don't think Azmin will "give and take" with Rozali. Like it or not, those who pay have more vecto power than the seller for now. So, who is suffocating who?
Rozali already in "desperate" to sell his asset and to collect 1.5b fund into his fat bank. Year 2016 is expected to be big economy downturn. For layman like me, I would prefer to hold cash than any investment assets.
Will the coming story be Azmin Ali vs Rakyat Selangor?
Cause of effect: Water rationing...
Not that I pro-Roger123, I feel after Budget 2015, we can see clearer picture fate of Puncak.
If Azmin's word has any credibility, water deal with Puncak shall complete at the end of this month or early next month. February statement by energy ministry's LOO is most like in conjunction to licenses taking effect only beginning Feb 22, 2016.
CM: Acquire Syabas, Puncak Niaga effective October
SHAH ALAM, 8 Sept: Pengurusan Air Selangor Sdn Bhd (Air Selangor) will emerge as a new company that provides water services to Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya starting March 2016.
This was announced by the Chief Minister, Mohamed Azmin Ali, after Air Selangor managed to successfully acquire Syarikat Bekalan Air Selangor Sdn Bhd (Syabas) and Puncak Niaga Sdn Bhd (PNSB).
***** “Starting October 1st, Air Selangor is expected to acquire Syabas and PNSB, however they will both continue to provide water services to consumers. *****
“All efforts will be focused on improving water treatment services, distribution system, reduction of non-revenue water (NRW) and continuous and adequate water supply to consumers,” he said.
He said this during a press conference after the Air Selangor Services Industry Structuring Signing Ceremony between Aset Air Berhad (PAAB) and Air Selangor at the Shah Alam Convention Centre (SACC).
The state and federal government managed to finalise four agreements involving Facility Agreement, Lease, Solutions and Rights between PAAB and Air Selangor for 45 years under the Leases and Rights of Use Agreement, thereby meeting the 60-day deadline from the signing date of the supplementary agreement on July 10.
Also present was the Minister of Energy, Green Technology and Water (KeTTHA), Datuk Seri Dr Maxiums Ongkili and the Chairman of PAAB, Datuk Seri Tajol Rosli Ghazali.
Maxiums said that Air Selangor has been awarded the Individual License (Facility) and Individual Licence (Service) under the Water Services Industry Act 2006 (WSIA) which allows the entity to own water assets in addition to controlling services in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya.
***** “However, the license shall come into effect on February 22, 2016, to enable all agreement features to be carried out. *****
“Air Selangor and PAAB are given five months to perfect all agreements, including amending the Syabas Concession Agreement and terminating the concession agreement accosiated with PNSB and Abass,” he said.
Air Selangor must first acquire syabas and PNSB from Puncak, expect by 1 Oct. After the take over complete, both PNSB and Syabas will still continue water service as both still hold their concession agreement.
It is only until both PNSN and syabas is fully control and fully own by Air Selangor, then only later Air Selangor can subsequently make amendment to the syabas and PNSB Concession Agreement by terminating their concession agreement and transfer the water service license from syabas and PNSB to Air Selangor, paving the way for Air Selangor to assume role of PNSB and syabas and to provides water services to Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya starting March 2016.
hng33, I have invested based on the news that I can gather and quarter reports as well as bursa announcements that I can read. While I have increased my position in Puncak over the past week, can't help but still have concern over its timely completion due to:
1) Azmin's trust-worthiness is rather low on water restructuring (not sure about others, though never likes his 藕连丝断 with PAS).
2) While the Puncak share price has barely moved by the gradual progress in restructuring, can't help but notice that the gap between Puncak and warrants are shrinking. To me, mother gaps higher than warrant means restrucutring is perceived completed while a warrant gaps higher than mother means more time is needed to complete the deal. Right now, it is as if current price is rather close to the Puncak's fair market price, probably just fall short of 20-50 cents. Its odd to me, especially when the most recent quarter report suggested a minimum of 3.56 cash per share post water deal even when its other assets are ignored, suggesting a minimum of another RM 1 upside potential.
3) Unfriendly anal-ysts reports that are rather consistent from MIDF, CIMB, Affin-Hwang, and AM. Guess only Kenanga has a higher valuation on Puncak right now. It's a bit weird. Unfortunately, I didn't have sufficient knowledge about how the financial analysts industry work, I can barely deduce any useful information out of it.
my friend told me they will finalise the deal soon.. if you guys still want earn some small money, can try this, but must fast.when the deal is finalise, it will gap up 20-40cents at least, and ppl will start take profit.
For those who play International Chess, Puncak is at what is called the End Game. It's an interesting end-game with a queening pawn - the payment of RM1.555 billion to Puncak and the announcement of the ex-date of the special div. In the meantime, wolves are prowling unseen and a US rate hike also threatening. The latter should be known by this Fri. After this watch out for the wolves' final raid.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sudahkena
1,804 posts
Posted by sudahkena > 2015-09-15 14:41 | Report Abuse
Roger make buy call....