The only thing that is keeping this ship afloat is the high dividend yield. For a low growth (may I say declining?) business like Padini, it is worth 10x PE at most. My TP for Padini is RM 1.4X or a minimum 15% downside. Believe it or not, once Padini's dividend is cut in the next financial year, the stock will tank below my TP of RM 1.4X. I wont explain why Padini's dividend will be cut. As a responsible investor, you should do your own diligent.
To the buffett wannabes here, I must say, be careful of what you wish for. I know this post is going to get a lot of sticks. But I am seeing many new investors making newbie mistakes on this stock and I am here to give them some light. I will be back once Padini hits RM 1.4X.
15/10/2014 Flintstones
Update 1
It seems that the share price continue to inch lower towards my TP. Again, dividend investors must consider future dividends than current dividends to compute its prospective dividend yield.
To Benson911, there is no big fish or small fish in the stock market. The only fish exists if water fish.
LOL...... up & down and people sell & buy. Look like people still don't believe buy & hold for certain counter like Padini.
Honestly, if you scare because of market condition and global effect or don't believe in company management then don't even thinking of buying the counter because most likely you will loss more than profit.
Sorry may be this will offend many people but that what I observe so far include friend & relative around that keep on saying stock market not something we should look at and touch :-)
Agreed. Of course we do need those people buy & sell else like you say. The stock will have no activities and stuck. But the true is they don't gain much in long term. True enough there are some so call expert will make money too. Therefore any strategies will work if you can make money from it :-)
different ppl adopting diff strats, after all the div is paid out once in 3 months, maybe some ppl might wanna keluar masuk keluar masuk to ensure their money is put in good use :) perhaps those entered below RM1.70 might cash out at RM1.90 and forgo the next 3 sens dividend payout? some ppl just cant stand HOLDING, and its okay as long as they felt that their investment target has been met :)
its is because of ppl buying and selling, different methods of investing that makes the stock market interesting. if everyone is the same, den no point to invest. there will not be any movement. might as well just keep ur money in the bank.
stockoperator - if everyone have correct Mentality then sound like the opposite of jellygal27 comment - " if everyone is the same, den no point to invest. there will not be any movement. might as well just keep ur money in the bank."
Of course, there is impossible to have everyone the same.
This stock is flat for almost 2.5 years. With a DY of about 5%. Strong ROE, Good margin compared with competitors, reasonable growth, strong net cash flow of RM150m. Invested 100m in new outlets in 2014, compared with 2010-2013, total invested is about 85m. Expected to grow faster.
Correction made on my comments on 4 Nov 2014. Invested about RM40m in new outlets & RM60m in Unit Trusts in 2014. 2013 investment in new outlets is only RM16m. (read the summary cash flow, hence no breakdown until I read the audited accounts)
With strong ROE (net of cash) at 38% with reasonable growth, and a DY 5.5%, upside should be good. Take a look at its earnings after a few years, and review regularly on its investment in unit trusts.
For dividend announcement and payout you can easily check in Bursa right? Usually last week of November they will announce it and the payout should be two to three weeks after the announcement.
In its research note today, RHB said that it expects the three companies to be designated as non-compliant as they each have debt that exceeds 33% of their total assets, which is against the Syariah Advisory Council of the SC’s requirement that debt should not exceed 33% of a company’s total assets .
RHB Research explained that investors in “Syariah compliant securities” which are subsequently re-classified as “Syariah non-compliant” are required to dispose of the stocks within a month, unless the market price is below investment cost.
Meanwhile, RHB identified four stocks that could be included in the Syariah-compliant list, which are Esthethics International Group Bhd, Pantech Group Holdings Bhd, SKP Resources Bhd and Padini Holdings Bhd.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
mcwong
402 posts
Posted by mcwong > 2014-10-21 17:08 | Report Abuse
When can recover back..????