~Patience: Anytime you find something that look like massive returns usually means massive risk. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.
Patience is truly a virtue. Take your time, dont try to get rich overnight. Never break yout rules.
~Individuality: I have often found that if I was doing what everyone else was doing...... I was probably doing it wrong. This phrase reflect if you are selling Pohuat 7088 (follow the crowd negative sense - falling of stock price even revenue and profit grows), probably you are wrong.
investor panic selling on pohuat due to net cash fr operating activities widen from negative cash (0.82 mil) in Q12016 to (10.90 mils) Q12017 which is significant decrease cash flow 1225%. The significant decrease in cash flow due to significant increase in payable from 12 mil Q12016 to 29 mil Q12017 with 132% hike.
Bank borrowings / hire purchase significant increase from 28 mil (Q42016) to 56 mil (Q12017) to par down the payables from 89 mil (Q42016) to 56 mil (Q12017).
1. Savvy investor Lim Pei Tiam and his 6 relatives are holding firmly to Pohuat just like Warren holding Nebraska Furniture Mart for 34 long years.
2. Pohuat is not exposed to sell down as KYY only dispose Lihen, Hevea and Latitude to support his one man mission in Jaks and Sendai. So Pohuat is in infected by indiscriminate selling.
3. Pohuat's operation in more than 2/3 in Vietnam. So it is easy to get workers at lower cost. That means more powerful profits!
4. Trump is very happy with Vietnam as Vietnam just made many billions purchase of US goods and services. So Pohuat is at the right place at the right time. Increasing furniture exports to USA!!
5. Tay Khim Seng already in Top 30 Pohuat mother shares is buying pohuat warrants. And warrants are instrument of bull markets. So he is bullish on Pohuat's bright future.
6. Furniture Companies generate high returns. So Warren Buffet has at least 4 furniture stocks in Berkshire Hathawa. And among furniture companies in Malaysia Pohuat stands out s a shining example of a great growth stock.
Calvin, I am not trying to critise you. But I am merely highlighting some facts which I think are misleading to readers. However, I still need to thanks you that I follow your advise to long into DRB and exited with profits. I study Poh Huat in details because I own the shares currently.
Calvin, Let's work out some maths based on its latest media coverage in TheStar on 14/1/17.
"Poh Huat group financial controller Lee Ing Tiong says the company has set up a foreign exchange benchmark of 4.2 ringgit per US dollar for its financial year ending Oct 31, 2017 (FY17)"
"For 2017, Poh Huat is targeting an increase in revenue of between 15% to 20% and to maintain a profit before tax margin of at least 12%"
"It recently ventured into Australia after buying a detached warehouse cum office-showroom in Dandenong, Victoria, Australia for A$4.25mil (RM13.29mil) in September 2016. “Australians have almost the same taste like the Americans. “We believe that it would take at least two years to see the impact,” he says."
Management has guided a exchange rate of RM4.20 which is rather fair and conservative. The US currency was trading at 4.40 level in Jan and 4.30 level currently, and in fact, many banks start to forecast Ringgit to trade at 4.20 level by year end. It concludes that management has been very prudent in managing the costs. They have anticipated the raw material to rise after Chinese New Year too. Given this, I expect the 2nd q result will be much better than 2nd q last year. But, don't expect it will perform better than 1st q this year or 4q last year, because 2nd q is a low peak quarter and 4th q is the top peak period.
Poh Huat is targeting 15% growth in sales in 2017. So, we expect sales in 2017 to be RM615.50mil. Given its PBT margin of 12%, this works out PBT of RM73.86mil and net profit of RM59mil (assume tax rate of 20% as per last year). EPS will be 27.68 sen in 2017 (growth by 25%). So, it is trading at prospective PE of 6.6x, which I feel is low (I may be wrong here). I do expect furniture counters to trade at PE of 9x ~ 10x , which translate to RM2.50 (fair value) !
Management is active to look out for expansion. However, don't expect immediate fruit within these 2 to 4 years from Australia (or southern part of the globe). So, I personally don't look at it for the time being. Maybe I would have exited at RM2.50 by end of this year !
Finally, management has consistently paying dividend of 2 sen per quarter, which work out 8 sen per year or payout of 36% or yield of 4.4%, which is good (but not excellent if compare to Lii Hen of 22 sen dividend or payout of 53% or yield of 6.9% ! However, it is better than the stingy Latitude of paying merely 12 sen dividend or payout of 16% or yield of 2.3% !). Anyway, I expect Poh huat to declare higher than 8sen dividend this year given better profit. Assuming they maintain similar payout, we can expect total dividend of 10sen this year. Let's hope for it or exit at RM2.50 ??
to me, this company has right management (in growing mode, expand to Aus, even though US and Canada market still growing), right business model (export market) and right profit (great profit for the past few years with dividend)
cherry88 "As of now (just 3 Quarters) the yield is already a commendable 12% (21.93 divides by Rm1.82) 3 times that of Bank FD at 4%."
Calvin, don't bull shit people by giving wrong fact ! Poh Huat is paying 2 sen per quarter for the past year. So, assume 8 sen per year, its yield is 4.39% 02/06/2017 10:41
Pohuat in 3 quarters made 12% already.
By this month when result is out the earning should exceed 18%.
Dividend yield is not a benchmark. It is the overall growth that counts.
Warren Buffet's Berkshire never ever give any dividend at all
Calvintaneng will give 5 stocks for you to buy every month ( if u dont believe, u just wait for his up coming article and start counting) With 1 year 12 months x 5 = 60 In 3 years Calvintaneng has gave 180 counters for you to buy.
180 stock is almost 18% of the total stock in bursa.
Out of 180 stock given by calvintaneng, 95% go holland!!
So...i assume calvintaneng total net worth at rm10 million which i think impposible he has so much of money, he said he only invest 3% of his capital (u believe?? Haha...u know, i know...LOL)
10 mil x 3% = 300k
So, calvintaneng, can u answer my question below? 1)with 300k, how you allocate this 300k into the total 180 stock that your chun chun holland call?
Assumed per stock average at 50c, 300k only can buy around 600 lots only (1 lot x 1000 units)...so, the 180 counter that calvin chun chun call, actually he is buying around 3.5 lots for every counter for that 180 stock.
Can u imagine you promote so aggresive with the misleading article title i.e: Most undervalue stock in the world etc but end up u only buying 3.5 lots??
2)10% of your stock make money only (base on my record only 5% of your stock go up and 94% of your stock pick still at lose), how is your performance so far in your portfolio?
3)Just answer me "Yes" or "No" for this 3rd question. Are u deserve for rank 224 in 2017 stock pick? If no, what will be your estimation rank by 31/12/2017?
I am waiting for your clarification with solid justification and proof.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ks55_
569 posts
Posted by ks55_ > 2017-04-14 22:42 | Report Abuse
USD 4.4 game over USD ctr?