Renewable Diesel Plans Could Outstrip Soybean Acres, Soy Oil Supplies
OMAHA (DTN) -- Analysts are having a hard time modeling out the soybean oil needs in the near term and long term as more renewable diesel projects are announced. For now, forecasts call for higher soybean prices, expanded acreage, and not enough soybean oil to go around.
If everything is built out as projected, farmers would have to add tens of millions of acres of soybeans and yield increases to keep up with the crush demand. To hit the numbers, soybean production would have to grow by roughly 3.6 billion bushels by 2030.
USDA's Economic Research Service this week projected soybean oil will see greater demand starting in 2022, while Rabobank offered a similar outlook projecting greater crush capacity starting in 2023 as more renewable diesel facilities come online.
In an analysis this week, Rabobank projects renewable diesel production to hit more than 6.1 billion gallons by 2030. That would push vegetable oil demand to about 47 billion pounds (21.4 million metric tons). To put that into perspective, Rabobank notes the U.S. right now produces about 24 billion to 25 billion pounds (11 mmt to 11.3 mmt). That basically requires soybean and other vegetable oil production to double to meet the demand driven by renewable diesel.
If all the renewable diesel capacity gets built out, within three to four years, there could be either a risk of deficit in vegetable oils or millions of new acres needed in soybeans, as well as other crops such as canola.
"If you look at it all going to soybeans, you would need upwards of 55 million to 60 million more acres of soybeans," Nicholson said. "We just don't have that in the United States." Nicholson added, "Soybeans would basically wipe out corn and wheat acres in the U.S. just to produce enough oil for this. But we don't have the crushing capacity to do it."
This expansion of renewable diesel also doesn't quite factor in where sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will come into play. The airline industry is clamoring to lower its emissions as well. The Build Back Better bill has a tax credit of up to $1.25 a gallon and $300 million for research, along with other potential funds for SAF infrastructure. Ethanol, however, also will get a chance to operate in this space with some further refining to change the molecular structure.
ADM also recently partnered with GEVO Inc. to focus on SAF and other low-carbon hydrocarbon fuels. ADM estimates 900 million gallons of ethanol from plants in Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska could be converted into 500 million gallons of SAF fuels.
Both renewable diesel and ethanol moving aggressively into aviation fuels will also require the federal government to consider different options for modeling out carbon scores through language in the legislation.
"When you look at sustainable aviation fuel, that's an industry that's kind of in its infancy, and I don't mean that in a bad way, but it's just kind of the nature of the beast," Nicholson said.
8 sen dividend is confirmed ex date is Dec 7th 2022
Since Chairman has 325.7 mil Tsh shares he will receive Rm26 mil in dividends
at the rate of 500,000 share purchase each day will last him 47 days buying non stop till Feb 2023
From there how many more Tsh he will be buying and at what prices Tsh will be yet to be seen
In Feb 2023 the remaining 1/3 of Bulugan land will probably result in another cash inflow of Rm230 millions with profit from land sold about 10 sen profit (normal operation not included )
since bulk of loans mostly settled there will be substantial saving from bank interest
See if Tsh will follow up with more regular dividends like Inno (Sabah Govt appointed Tsh BOD to manage Inno from its inception )
DENVER, COLORADO, US — The US biofuels industry is expected to see a period of growth and transition due to a recent surge in renewable diesel, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.
“The outlook for biofuels is favorable as the US and other leading developed countries embrace renewable liquid transportation fuels as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg, lead grain and farm supply economist for CoBank. “Renewable diesel offers the most intriguing opportunity in the biofuels space, given the extraordinary growth potential.”
As major oil companies have begun embracing renewable diesel, US production is expected to increase exponentially. Several industry stakeholders have announced plans for new soybean crush and refinery facilities over the last two years. Soybean oil is the feedstock most commonly used for producing renewable diesel. Combined, the proposed crush and refinery projects would increase US renewable diesel production capacity six-fold by 2030 to 6.5 billion gallons annually.
However, the expected growth in soybean oil-based renewable diesel requires considerably more soybean bushels for domestic crush. CoBank estimates that US soybean acreage would need to increase by 17.9 million acres to fill the supply gap created by the additional crush and refinery projects that have been announced. Additionally, the United States would need to stop exporting whole soybeans.
Alternatives to a massive shift of acres from corn to soybeans would include growing other oilseeds like canola and sunflower on a larger scale, importing other vegetable oils, or using other feedstocks such as beef tallow to produce renewable diesel fuel.
Biofuel production has grown nearly 8% every year over the past 15 years, driven by tax credits and targeted government programs, including the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will increase usage of renewable energy in general, and biofuels in particular.
1) Said Gain 7 figure on 2019 .. Philip compiled yr 2019 40 stock on early 2020 , proven you r a Liar … And Why No Money to buy Ticket on Board a Cruise Ship on December 2019 , telling Lies that on Board ….
>>> recalled only 2 stock r in Profit … others r in Loss ….
do you know what is the consequences loosely using the records or verses in the Bible ? the word are spirit and are life , divine ; only for God's interest .
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,561 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-11-25 17:16 | Report Abuse
And sale of bulugan 32,000 acres lands have settled almost all debt of Tsh so as to make it cash rich and debt free
This profit of 18 sen management has decided to give out 8 sen dividend
It is from Bulugan 32,000 acres of land sold at Rm731.09 millions cash
Tsh still got 94700 acres of much valuable lands in Kutai/Nusantara the new capital of Indonesia
It is about 3x land size of bulugan
If we take Bulugan value as benchmark (of course Kutai lands are worth more)
Then Rm731.09 millions x 3
Or just below Rm2 .2 billions
Divided by paid up capital of Rm1.388 bil share there is a Rm1.57 per share
How undervalue is Tsh now