Posted by eftee > 2014-02-19 22:44 | Report Abuse

Falling asleep. Which drink stronger?

Posted by brendonyeap > 2014-02-20 06:56 | Report Abuse

good time to buy

Posted by hensemboy > 2014-02-20 08:35 | Report Abuse

today or tomorrow confirm up.buy buy buy

Posted by cheeseburger > 2014-02-20 10:21 | Report Abuse

remember buy low sell high...

Posted by LIAUSAN > 2014-02-20 22:27 | Report Abuse

Is it now low enough to buy in?

Posted by hensemboy > 2014-02-21 16:44 | Report Abuse

told ya.today gonna up..hehe..next week look forward to 2.00

Posted by Pika Chan > 2014-02-22 08:33 | Report Abuse

1.85 is rejected going down, should be a good buy, safety margin is there

Posted by hensemboy > 2014-02-22 18:41 | Report Abuse

keep hold for a month,easily 10 percent profit.

Posted by brendonyeap > 2014-02-22 18:59 | Report Abuse

Why is it trending so low? Is t related to Rosmah Mansor?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-02-22 19:57 | Report Abuse

Brendonyeap,

Why is it trending so low? These are the reasons:

1) OLD TOWN Coffee sells designer coffee - priced below Star Buck but double the price of that sold in coffee shops. As such it caters to the typical middle class.

2) With the Increase of electricity, petrol, assessment rates, sugar, toll rates and others the middle class is now squeezed. So there is less visits to Old Town Coffee Outlets - the Middle Class downgrade to the lower end coffee shops. Of course, Old Town will still survive for being an excellent Avenue for those who want a nice ambience to talk light business matters.

3) In tough times - the very rich will still patronize high end restaurants and the poorer masses will continue to crowd lower end eating places. It is the middle range restaurants & outlets that will be impacted - and one of them is Old Town Coffee.

4) One of my favourite place to have a nice cup of white coffee is the Corner Old Town Coffee Outlet in Taman Molek, Johor. The place is cool and quiet. In its initial opening years - the Collection in this Middle Class enclave is RM3,000 above per day.

Not so for now - Daily takings have fallen below RM3,000 - and on some days the total collection even fell below RM2,000 a day.

As such the price of Old Town is reflected in the Share price in trending lower.

Let's hope that Malaysia will continue to prosper. And Old Town will continue to prosper in the prosperity of Malaysia

Best Regards,

Calvin Singapore.

By the way, at RM1.88 the price of Old Town Coffee is still double that of its all time low at 92 cents. At 92 cents I saw Director share buy back. I wish I did follow him should share price drop to 80 cents. It never did and I missed Old Town when it crossed RM2.00 and touched a high of RM3.32. I really miss a good buy for being too cautious.

Posted by brendonyeap > 2014-02-22 20:05 | Report Abuse

I once held Oldtown in 2012 - 2013, bought at rm 2.00-2.20 and managed to sell it off prior to ex bonus. Made a very handsome profit from it..now i plan to buy back, just waiting for right time for it to hit my price

Posted by jenabchen123 > 2014-02-23 01:00 | Report Abuse

How do you find Old Town? I been there and brought the whole 20 people but when asked for feedbacks, most said taste so so but pricey. This is not good and could be one of the reasons why price keep sliding down? I am just speculating.......

Posted by AhHuat50 > 2014-02-23 01:49 | Report Abuse

Guys,stay calm and buy some to keep for long term since the price is cheaper now compare to the highest Rm3.32 last year.

Posted by YangBerhormat > 2014-02-23 02:15 | Report Abuse

cheap can be cheaper, better buy AhHuat kopi 3in1.

Posted by keanpoh > 2014-02-25 10:46 | Report Abuse

Over the past couple of years, OLDTOWN has successfully built its brand equity in the market. Everybody knows OLDTOWN WHITE COFFEE these days. It was ranked 24th as Malaysia's most valuable brand 2012. This is a remarkable success as people has hardly heard about OLDTOWN WHITE COFFEE a few years before that.
(source: http://www.interbrand.com/Libraries/Branding_Studies/Malaysia_s_Most_Valuable_Brands_2012.sflb.ashx)

OLDTOWN restaurants have since mushroomed in Malaysia. You can almost see them everywhere. I still remember when I first stepped into an OLDTOWN restaurant back in 2007 - 2008 (if i remember correctly), the food offered wasn't that attractive and good. I wasn't impressed at all. But in my recent visits in the last couple of years, I can see tremendous improvements in the food quality (especially the nasi lemak and the steam rice).

Also, one should be able to notice that OLDTOWN used to be a 'Chinese restaurant' where most if not all customers are of Chinese etnic those days but that has change now. With the recent move by the management for Halal certification on its restaurants, you can see more and more muslim customers, enjoying true Malaysian foods.

Besides, the management has been able to creatively come out with set menus (set lunch, breakfast sets and dinner sets) to make their offering more attractive and looked more economical.

Furthermore, it is a very exciting news to hear that the company is now partnering with SHELL to open up OLDTOWN kiosks at Shell petrol stations in Malaysia. This will enable the company to quickly expand their footprint and contribute to the revenue stream. Imagine that you're driving along the North-South highway or going to work in the morning and now you can stop by a Shell Petrol Station to fill in petrol and at the same time to grab a quick cup of OLDTOWN White Coffee for RM3.90 a cup? Isn't that great? I see this as a huge opportunity for the company to expand their top line if this is executed successfully.

With the above observations, I believe the management is steering the ship into the right direction. OLDTOWN has successfully differentiated itself from the ordinary local coffee shop in Malaysia. It is now a trusted brand and has plenty of room to grow, both domestically and internationally.

Yes, I admit that there are still a lot of improvements needed to be done on their restaurant business segment, such as improving food quality and get rid of some not so tasty food from the menu. And also most importantly, improve their services quality (many complaint that their servants who are mostly foreigners have some hard time communicating with the customers). Investors should observe themselves if the company is doing that in the next 12 months, if foods and services are getting better. Not forgetting, investors should also pay attention to the company's venture into China. Oh yeah, the management plans to open another 20 - 30 restaurants in 2014, which I think is pretty conservative. I somehow think they should be more aggressive in terms of new restaurants opening, although I believe the management should know better than me as to how aggressive they should be in this with more internally available information.

The above are only about their restaurant business, which contributes to 60% of their revenue. What about the other 40% which is contributed by their fast moving consumer goods (instant coffee and other beverages manufacturing)?

If one goes to the hyper market such as Giant, Aeon Big, Jusco and Tesco today, one will notice that there are so many brands of White Coffee to choose from, with Ah Huat White Coffee being one of the biggest competitor. OLDTOWN has a strong brand name as it is one of the earliest White Coffee offering out there and therefore, the company has the advantage of not needing to spend as much on advertising and promotional as Ah Huat White Coffee does. However, the key to success is still the same - product differentiation. That's what Power Root has been doing (and doing it very well) with heavy spending on advertising and promotional activities, because they are working very hard to differentiate their product from others. So, as an investor, I am keeping an eye on how well the management of OLDTOWN is doing to differentiate their product too (in terms of the instant coffee and other beverages offering).

Lastly, investors should also pay attention to the growth in the exporting of OLDTOWN instant coffee and other beverages products. Should these things goes well, the company should do well in the coming years (and so will the value of the stock).

Posted by Lew Chin Hoong > 2014-02-25 19:27 | Report Abuse

+1 like @keanpoh

Posted by Investeye > 2014-02-26 16:25 | Report Abuse

Hold few lots but still at breakeven point after issue of bonus for free share. Just be patience so that can enjoy the white coffee else lost my "kopi money"!

Posted by Lew Chin Hoong > 2014-02-26 18:04 | Report Abuse

0.03 dividend nia

Posted by stanleysew > 2014-02-26 22:16 | Report Abuse

if i bought last week ,,, stil can get the dividend bo ??\

Posted by Investeye > 2014-02-26 22:30 | Report Abuse

Ex date is19th Mar and payment date is 17th Apr.

Posted by Investeye > 2014-02-26 22:47 | Report Abuse

After verified the report, I think further uptrend is high! hope OldTown can give me some fee white coffee in 2014!

Posted by eftee > 2014-02-27 10:24 | Report Abuse

Grossly underpriced. Every house set target price over RM2 but still below that price. Also making money.

Posted by sohofelix > 2014-02-27 10:25 | Report Abuse

still no see any progress on china market.

Posted by hensemboy > 2014-02-27 10:38 | Report Abuse

told u bro.this one definitely will up..ngee

Posted by tewnama > 2014-02-27 10:39 | Report Abuse

ya. naik satu sen. itu aje

Posted by speakup > 2014-02-27 10:43 | Report Abuse

kenanga give Zhulian TP rm5, now only rm3. dont believe analyst TP too much, often they got their own agenda.

Posted by keanpoh > 2014-02-27 12:06 | Report Abuse

The problem with OLDTOWN now is the underperformance of it's Cafe business. I am fairly disappointed. In their latest financial report, the company is lucky that their Beverage manufacturing business has picked up very well to offset the underperformance of their cafe division.

A stock price is based on the future cash flow that the company can generate, not it's historical performance. When the company reported below expectation growth rate, the stock price will not perform well. We're lucky that the stock price did not drop today.

I hope that the management can do something to improve the revenue and profit of their Cafe business.

Posted by keanpoh > 2014-02-27 12:08 | Report Abuse

Compare OLDTOWN quarterly report with PADINI's quarterly report. They're in different business, but just compare the revenue growth and you'll see what I mean and you'll see why PADINI stock price has soared while OLDTOWN is doing + and - 0.01 sen today.

Posted by cheeseburger > 2014-02-27 14:55 | Report Abuse

take a look at Pwroot...slide from peak $2.20 to today $1.77 in just less than 2 months time.

Posted by cheeseburger > 2014-02-27 14:55 | Report Abuse

Is not right to use Padini as comparison.

Posted by hensemboy > 2014-02-27 20:03 | Report Abuse

@tewnama.rilek r.naik slow2 better than naik laju then trun laju.

Posted by keanpoh > 2014-02-28 01:20 | Report Abuse

cheeseburger, i know it's not appropriate to compare OLDTOWN and PADINI although both operate in the consumer product industry. What i was trying to point out is why PADINI stock soared today while OLDTOWN stock price saw little changes when both reported quarterly earnings on the same day. I just wanted to point out that for a stock price to appreciate, a company has to show some kind of revenue growth, a growth rate that is above expectation.

Posted by eftee > 2014-02-28 09:53 | Report Abuse

When there is famine at least we can eat. But Padini we eat clothes only hehe. Just joking

Posted by cheeseburger > 2014-02-28 10:32 | Report Abuse

keanpoh,
I dont understand what you mean Oldtown has no revenue growth? Pls look at the revenue recorded:
2011 $285mil
2013 $421mil

Oldtown just annouced bonus in Jan 2014, and Oldtown annouced dividen $0.03 on 26/2.

Posted by keanpoh > 2014-02-28 11:22 | Report Abuse

Let's look at quarterly results for OLDTOWN in the past 4 quarters:
Revenue (in '000) Growth (q-q) Profit (in '000) Growth (q-q) Net Profit Margin
Q4FY13 87,921 N/A 9,649 N/A 10.97%
Q5FY13 88,380 0.52% 11,687 21.12% 13.22%
Q1FY14 91,239 3.23% 12,181 4.23% 13.35%
Q2FY14 95,299 4.45% 11,382 -6.55% 11.94%
Q3FY14 100,689 5.66% 13,429 17.98% 13.34%

Revenue growth from Q3FY14 vs Q4FY14 = 14.5%

I am comparing current quarter to previous quarter numbers as the business is not cyclical in nature.

Don't you think that the growth rate could be better (>20% annual growth rate since it is still a fairly small and young company)? I am not saying that the company is not growing. It is growing, but at a slower rate than investors are expecting. If the company can improve their Cafe business sales contribution, they can grow at a much faster rate, and then only will the stock price appreciate.

When one uses the discounted cash flow valuation model to find the value of a company, the revenue growth rate is essential in determining the stock price today. A change of growth rate from 14.5% to 20% makes a huge difference.

My quick valuation of OLDTOWN at 20% annual revenue growth for the next 5 years and then gradually slow down to 3% annual revenue growth rate at year 10 and thereafter, with pre-tax operating margin from 16% to 13% in year 10 and thereafter gave me a valuation of the stock price today at RM2.42 per share.

If i reduce the annual growth rate for the next 5 years from 20% to 14.5% while keeping other numbers the same, the stock price is only valued at RM1.98 per share.

Investors should look for the revenue growth rate in the coming quarters as well as profit margins. For the stock price to do better, revenue growth rate has to improve, while margin being kept at the current level or any improvement will be good for the stock price.

Also note that FY13 comprised of 5 quarters and therefore, FY13 numbers are much higher than 4 quarter FY11.

Posted by sien > 2014-02-28 16:09 | Report Abuse

used to bought it at around RM1.30, brought me good capital gain, but its seem hardly to grow after exceed RM3, before the bonus issue, and still dropping after the issue.
Personally not so like the F&B over there, expensive and not worth it, especially the food, and impolite employee on certain branch, heard customer complaint about it. Only attraction to me is some 24 hours outlet, one of the place to tea. That is from a customer's perspective. But it still making profit overall. Still holding it, but having less faith on it. No news on expanding, low dv, as an investor perspective. Hopefully its still have a plan to expend its business after the bonus issue, improve the menu.

Posted by Funtrade > 2014-03-01 17:21 | Report Abuse

Old town's mini servings being condemned in social media

https://www.facebook.com/savedotmoney/photos/a.353026758147725.1073741834.317904018326666/516679545115778/?type=1&theater

Posted by cheeseburger > 2014-03-11 15:34 | Report Abuse

Great

Posted by FLINV > 2014-03-11 21:28 | Report Abuse

I personal go tried it, feel not so bad. I will buy in some OLDTOWN .

Posted by eftee > 2014-03-12 09:50 | Report Abuse

The last time I sold at 1.84 before it went up to 2.40 then 3 plus. This time holding. If you compare with other cafes then the price reasonable as portion quite big

Posted by thinkndo > 2014-03-17 15:57 | Report Abuse

1 more day before x-date come...

Posted by LIAUSAN > 2014-03-17 21:45 | Report Abuse

You want to sell after div--ex ?

Posted by Melaos > 2014-03-17 22:11 | Report Abuse

is this a good time to get into this stock?

Posted by thinkndo > 2014-03-18 11:42 | Report Abuse

think hardly to have someone who would able to give the right answer unless the person is insider and very good at, knowing this company future performance and plan.....market is always miserable....

Posted by thinkndo > 2014-03-18 11:44 | Report Abuse

still monitoring....may keep for dividend....unless...great movement today..:)
...

Posted by Investeye > 2014-03-18 13:45 | Report Abuse

Latest TP from research house:
Maybank : RM2.67
Allianz : RM2.35
HLIB: RM2.29

http://www.nanyang.com/node/607232?tid=462

Compare with BJFood, which one is better ?

Posted by eftee > 2014-03-18 16:14 | Report Abuse

Finally moving and realising undervalued compared to others (my opinion only)

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2014-03-18 17:32 | Report Abuse

Tmr is ex date

Posted by cheeseburger > 2014-03-18 22:54 | Report Abuse

time for Oldtown to move back on track to +$2.xx...

Posted by cheeseburger > 2014-03-19 10:39 | Report Abuse

time to add position...