In the theory of accuracy, aircraft crash incidents are one million per one probability. And we malaysian airlines got 3 cases straight on it within one year, the chances are very rarely in 10 billions per one ratio but still happened. So next time must buy travel insurance.
As said before it is a very know factor Travel Insurance is very high risk business for the premium charged against cost of claims - more than 6% claims frequency will burnt scheme ! Of course , Tune Ins is involve with AirAsia's liability insurance through captive/reinsurance schemes . I assumed at least 10% retention risk !!!!
Why tune insurance didn't drop much when Market expects it to go Limit Down?
This is the Answer by Calvin Tan Research
Insurance is a pay out from the pool of collected premiums. So its costs will go up after the horrendous claims.
Tune Insurance will then raise the insurance premium by a HUGE MARGIN to compensate for the imminent losses. SO TUNE INSURANCE WILL BOUNCE BACK AND MAKE EVEN MORE OBSCENE PROFIT IN THE FUTURE BY CHARGING AN ARM OR LEG WHEN ALL FUTURE PASSENGERS AND OTHERS BUY FLIGHT INSURANCE.
That is the Reason Why Warren Buffet Has Insurance Companies in the Portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway. One good example is Geiko Insurance.
HONG KONG, Dec 29 (Reuters) - German insurer Allianz said on Monday it was the lead re-insurer to the AirAsia jet missing off the Indonesian coast with 162 people on board, making it the third major airline accident it has been involved in this year.
The German company, which has Malaysia Airlines as a client, was the main reinsurer to flight MH370 that disappeared over the Indian Ocean in March, as well as to flight MH17 which was shot down in July while flying over Ukraine.
"We can confirm that Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty UK (AGCS) is the lead reinsurer for AirAsia, for aviation hull and liability insurance," an Allianz spokeswoman said in a statement emailed to Reuters.
Allianz declined to comment on the extent of its exposure or to identify other insurers with exposure to the missing Indonesia AirAsia plane, an Airbus A320-200.
But Reuters calculations show the minimum payout to cover for this accident could be around $100 million.
People is uncertain and getting crazy to dump it . Yes they seems having slow growth but at the least still gaining estimated 70m net profit last year with 355m cash in hand with zero debt. Worth at least rm2 with health fundamental but not this crazy rm1.50+. Great time to collect with no fear.
There will be further drop in price when the impact of short term drop of sales fr AA !! As I highlighted in the past , thou Travel Ins business is good in cash generating but margin of profit is tight & very expose - burning rate 6% & plus !!! Wait until it drop below 1.20 for collection for 12-18 months trading lohhhhh
I think those that commented on insurance claims know nothing about how insurance company operates. First a large portion of the risk is being transferred to REINSURANCE Company (i.e Allianz). Tune insurance may be retaining less than 1% of the total exposure. On top of that it is quite common the Insurance Company like Tune Insurance buys "Loss Protection" to cap their maximum losses. I can assure you that the losses to Tune Insurance is not significant. On Flood, it is happening in rural area whereby lots of properties are not insured for Flood coverage and in fact Not insured at all. It will only hurt the insurance company badly if it happens in Big City like KL, Selangor, JB.
Even for PA claims I am sure Tune insurance will buy reinsurance protection to cap their losses. I guess the losses will not be more than RM10mil. In fact after these incident, more passenger will be buying PA coverage. Only risk is whether they can continue to grow the PA business if AirAsia Ticket sales dropped.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinsurance This link will help you to understand how Insurance company transfer risk to Reinsurance company. And how they buy Loss Protection check under the heading "Non-proportional"
However, the overall impact on Tune's earnings will be minimal because (1) management has reconfirmed that Tune will not have to bear the claims as it reinsures out all these risks, (from CIMB research)
That's why a problem when people is unfamiliar how the business is working. They dump it when it has "no growth" or "assumption of big paying out" by ignoring the solid fundamental. Tuneins has a very unique business model, other than core insurance business they are earning around 20m investment profit a year. It is a business of leveraging, it could be safer than what you think of it.
dont try so hard to convince people. the only important thing when you buy a share is to justify it yourself. Tony F. was the first one to dump. i wonder why ?! Such a Coward ! or perhaps something much more serious is looming behind. nobody knows.
Not convincing anyone. Just correcting the misinformation and telling the facts on Tune's claims exposure from recent crash event. Tony's exit most likely due to poor macro outlook, which will affect investment income of the company, hence lowering the PAT in 2015. The P/E at 17/18 is seen as "expensive" given a poor investment market outlook in 2015, so is just a "cash out" for tony and re-enter when valuation is cheaper.
By law you can not have 100% reinsurance and that's the fact ! Therefore TuneIns for sure is expose fr the recent catastrophe . Short terms it price will continue to drop , lohhhhh
As the market grow for travel ins in Mysia , insured is more confident to claim on Baggage etc etc , as I said previously this type of business can only tolerate 6% claims frequency lahhhh .......... travel insurance can never be highly profitable and that's fact .
Tuneins is worth at least 2.3 for me due the fact that: 1) Zero Debt 2) Low management expenses - mere approx. 15% of operating revenue 3) Cash equivalent approx. 400m 4) Assured 70m net profit every year on top of the abundant cash.
I love how financially efficient it is and all above are the fundamentals assuming its business portfolio didn't grow. Indirectly saying whenever they are engaged to new insurance partner, it excerpt extra value.
One of the biggest challenges r link to AAA & AAX !! Looks like AAX is fighting fire and heat could b spreading across the group with common shareholders , mahhhh Globally, travel insurance is never b a highlight profitable business n bear in mind any claims frequency more than 6% is more likely to burnt , that's fact !!
a big chunk of tuneins cash has been invested to financial related product rather than putting in the fixed deposit account according to the latest audited account. It's understandable tuneins wanted to make full use of the cash balances and maximize the profit. Somehow some of the investors maybe doubted about that compare to the steadiness of fixed deposit. This could be one of the reason but I still look it very positively.
2) The due diligence of acquisition of Indonesia unit already completed and will be operating before first half of 2015. That means announcement will be released at anytime.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
cpng
1,575 posts
Posted by cpng > 2014-12-28 21:24 | Report Abuse
In the theory of accuracy,
aircraft crash incidents are one million per one probability.
And we malaysian airlines got 3 cases straight on it within one year, the chances are very rarely in 10 billions per one ratio but still happened.
So next time must buy travel insurance.