Posted by callme777 > 2016-03-18 16:28 | Report Abuse

Desa20201956 sonapetroleun


do dissenting shareholders gets the accrued interest income as well? or just 45sen?
18/03/2016 16:07

I understand is plus interest. Can Sona verify?

Posted by fiamma20 > 2016-03-18 16:29 | Report Abuse

Those who have both the mother shares and warrants must help to vote in favour of the proposed acquisition, if not the warrants will be a total lost.

Posted by bearguy > 2016-03-18 16:31 | Report Abuse

a quick question, why no one interested in buying SONA mother share? If is fail, you get back something 4%+ in 6 montjhs time, if is yes it will fly all the way at least on that first or second day. Simple question.

Open for dicussion

Posted by Drhamsup > 2016-03-18 16:49 | Report Abuse

put in FD 6 months, u get risk free 4.5%. dont need to wait for long process to get back your money.

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-03-18 16:54 | Report Abuse

again its the fear factor generated by the news, this forum, everywhere now.

with fear ppl will just sell without thinking objectively.

this is unfortunate....

Posted by jack2 > 2016-03-18 17:08 | Report Abuse

i think the selling almost subsided

those that against the QA, those weakholders and margin accounts may have sold. this is good, so that those who have confident and vote for the QA will continue to accumulate

Posted by bearguy > 2016-03-18 17:09 | Report Abuse

Drhamsup, i do agree with you. However, put money in bank FD does not have any probability to get more than 4.5%.

Buy mother SONA mother other than time consume slightly longer, basically is similar to put money in FD but provide another possible if QA success it TEND to fly higher at the first, second trading day.

i am not a speculative type of trader and I am not interested in sona-wa. I find it SONA mother share has so limited of downside risk to make us lose money at this level.

personal view.

Open for dicussion

Posted by YC_Ma > 2016-03-18 17:58 | Report Abuse

Monday sure up lar hahahaha

Posted by jack2 > 2016-03-18 18:56 | Report Abuse

on 14/3 & 15/3. credit suise bought 12M

the game is really with CS and PA

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5034705

Posted by jack2 > 2016-03-18 19:54 | Report Abuse

brent usd42.2
stag oil usd43++

what an excellent investment when you buy at low price oil field and ride on oil recovery play

when the oil price soar to usd50++, you will regret that you buy too little, LOL

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-03-18 20:14 | Report Abuse

FD rates, anyone can do


we are here to lose every thing or make 100%.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-03-18 20:17 | Report Abuse

you should manage risk by the size of the purchase...not by making beta become smaller.

Posted by YC_Ma > 2016-03-18 21:21 | Report Abuse

Monday will up hehehehe

Posted by YC_Ma > 2016-03-18 21:27 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/16/breakfast-briefing-march-16/

Posted by cricketlast > 2016-03-18 22:57 | Report Abuse

I have a feeling that Credit Suisse will probably vote no just to get a return of 7-9% (assuming the liquidation amount is 48 cents). They have the ability to borrow at a very low cost in Europe. This is actually an arbitrage opportunity for them.

Given the very low borrowing cost there, i would assume they will be using a lot of debt to collect the shares. When u leverage 90% of ur holdings for example, a 1% increase will actually becomes 10%.

Posted by Ant > 2016-03-18 23:45 | Report Abuse

can someone remind me, in few month back, is it that CS or PA had sold about 5% stake in off market to someone? do any one known who is the buyer...?

Posted by MG11 > 2016-03-19 09:21 | Report Abuse

For all you know, the fund that CS & PA bgt Sona belong to local's.
Wt the oil price on the rebound, this opportunity is too good to say NO.

Be very wise with your vote/decision!

Posted by jack2 > 2016-03-19 10:31 | Report Abuse

true, we never know whether both CS and PA shares are for themselves or purchases on behalf of their clients. there are many high net worth people around...

the recovery of oil price will be interesting, we are catching the BULL BY THE HEAD NOW, THEN LOOKING FOR BULL TAIL LATER

your money, your shares, your choice ...

hope we are all wise to understand, the MARKET CYCLES, NOTHING IS BAD FOREVER. NEITHER IS GOOD TIMES LAST FOREVER

GOOD LUCK AND CHEERS

Posted by jack2 > 2016-03-19 13:25 | Report Abuse

IF YOU SUPPORT THE QA, EITHER ATTEND THE EGM OR SUBMIT PROXY FORM TO REGISTERED OFFICE AS STATED IN THE FORM BY NEXT FRIDAY 25/3

THE FORM MUST REACHED REGISTERED OFFICE BY 5.00PM 25/3 FRIDAY

FAX COPY IS NOT ACCEPTABLE

Posted by YC_Ma > 2016-03-19 13:39 | Report Abuse

Sure up

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-03-19 14:14 | Report Abuse

you guys sound too desperate .

I want you folks to speculate on CS and PA and whether these are arbitragers or investors.

I have already come to the conclusion these are genuine investors .

The two of them together holds 20% of the shares. CS has been a shareholder from the beginning.

If they Vote No, the resolution will be defeated....its times up, the company will have to be liquidated and yield investors will have to wait 1 year for their money. That is not viable for them.

Posted by CLIQmanagement > 2016-03-19 14:37 | Report Abuse

can i fill up proxy to vote NO, and meanwhile within this EGM period, i see a good price and sell off my shares ?

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-03-19 14:54 | Report Abuse

Sonapetroleum...it would be nice to have a share price approximate after the acquisition of the stag fields with the reserves. Like i said, more info needed.

Everyone is concentrated on the cashback per share of 48.5c
What is the theoritical intrinsic value after acquisition? This will include all assets n cash left.

I believe this u need to market to ppl.

Gca value nta to be 38c after Qa. Does this includes the cash left? Does this value includes the reserves of 1p 2p? What about the hart fields? Base on oil price now u need to show us what's the future value.

If ppl see that the intrinsic value after acquisition is like eg 80c sure they will vote yes. Not enuf info. Pls furnish us with more info

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-03-19 17:15 | Report Abuse

For curiousity and an analytical perspective. Good learning for me too.

From gca report they have valued sona after stag purchase to be 0.38 per share nav. This after adding assets minus purchase price putting cash back in n works out to be 533mil attributed to shareholdrrs equity. This is in their pdf circular report. Go read

Nav per share = 533 mil / 1.411bil shares outstanding = 0.38 per share
this 38 nav is after purchase stag fields n have a cash balance of about 400mil. This is right as abput 400mil is leftover from trust acc after buying stag for 25usd mil.

I believe this 38 sen nav is value immediately after purchase. What about the future value of stag? Is the future value of stag included in this price?

Oil n gas co are valued from their reserves namely 1p n 2p about 30.5 mil barrels of oil.This amount assumes amount of oil they still have n gca has gone on a conservative valuation. plus they did not include the 3p oil n the extra hart fields which may have extra oil after exploration. This is all in the reportby gca go read. This 30.5 mil oil barrels assumes using infill to generate those reserves numbers. And we havent even talk about oil prices yet.

is this reserves represented in 38c nav? I dun think so. Correct me if i am wrong.

so how much is this reserves worth? Assuming they used up the 400mil cash for infill..

Base on oil price usd40
exchange rate usd to rm 4.1
their costs of production/ oil extraction usd30
note. Reserves are valued after extracted from grd. Correct me i am wrong

Reserves value:
30.5 mil x 4.1 x ( usd40- usd30) = 1.25bil rm
value per share
1.25bil/ 1.411bil shares outstanding = 88.6sen per share
of course this is only approximate value. But wat the hell? 80+ c over cash nack value of 48.5

i think this is the proper future intrinsic value of sona if they buy stag fields. I think their infill will be complted in 2018 its in the report go read.


note
havent include 3p reserves in
havent explore hart fields yet...may need capex to do that
oil price at usd 40 now...may shoot up if opec freeze oil production with other countries
may even reduce costs of production in future by 10 20%
Not even putting in profit loss in yet in calculation

From this value its a no brainer to buy already unless i am wrong.

but i still think they need to give us shareholders more info. They are not trying hard enuf especially from retailers holding about 32% of sona shares now. Scroll up to see from one post.

Keep on promoting! Cheers n buy at ypur own risk

Posted by MG11 > 2016-03-19 17:20 | Report Abuse

Like I said, CS & PA could be friendly parties to QA after all.

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-03-19 18:15 | Report Abuse

I dunno how le...just an engineer. Btw just ask them on egm day

Posted by jack2 > 2016-03-19 20:50 | Report Abuse

From a non oil man understanding of the abandonment cost rm391M is the cost to close all the oil wells and dismantle the oil rig once oil is depleted 20 yrs later at the oil field

this is the standard liabilities that oil co need to undertake

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-03-19 23:34 | Report Abuse

No need to be so judgmental just like that. We may not have aclear picture on the abandonment costs yet. Lets ask at the egm.

sounds like lots of ppl are emotionally stressed out due to sona stock yoyoing...chill n relax

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-03-20 00:07 | Report Abuse

don't scare people.
the provision for abandonment comes with assets and properties worth $523 million. It is fully provided for .

see pg 111

Posted by YC_Ma > 2016-03-20 04:29 | Report Abuse

See monday good show

Posted by jack2 > 2016-03-20 08:08 | Report Abuse

the value of whole oil fields is worth rm523M and this value increases when price of oil go up

the abandonment cost is is around rm391M. this cost will only incurred only once oil is depleted 20 yrs later

overall, the net value of the field is rm138M

sona is buying Stag at usd25M, roughly about rm110M, so the purchase price is FAIR and below the NTA of Stag

Posted by jack2 > 2016-03-20 08:12 | Report Abuse

abandonment cost is different from company debts or borrowing

co debts and borrowing, you need to pay interest and make payment according to the debts term from time to time

while abandonment cost is when oil is depleted 20 yrs later, cost incurred to clear the field

Posted by jack2 > 2016-03-20 08:39 | Report Abuse

Sir John Templeton said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/19/bulls-making-a-comeback/

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-03-20 10:24 | Report Abuse

Jack is right.

Go n google provision for abandonment costs especially australia.
I believe its an accounting concept to tally n match asset n equity n liabilities together. In australia u have to expensed it. Meaning u need to show it now n minus it bit bit over the years.u will get some tax breaks too. They will also have ppe depreciation over the years n asset number will get smaller. Its all accounting terms. Time to learn how to read the accounts.

Accounting entries are complicated. Are u sure other normal companies dun have any liabilities? Some companies have contingent liabilities n they are not even declared on the balance sheet. Research analyst should know abput this ....heck even we laymen can find info on the internet. Chill n ask at the egm.

What kind of 3rd rate research analyst simple jump to conclusions without proper due diligence?

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-03-20 13:22 | Report Abuse

I believe u guys are overanalysing n not focusing on the big picture.

Oil n gas co are valued on thier reserves. Valuation includes reserves n future prospects of reserves with conservative discounts. Thier valuation is on 1p n 2p with the ongoing infill development. Its not 533m. That is only a simple representation stated on thier cicular page 112.

And dun forget valuation is based on todays cheap oil price.

To me i only put emphasis on 2 things at the moment.
1. Value of reserves with infill 1p n 2p
This has not included 3p(this maybe only a certain amount recoverable)
This has also not included the hart fields yet

2.price of oil. U think it will stay usd40 forever? Be smart

If there is so much liabilities u guys are worried about why even bother with sapurakencana? Petronas? Reach energy?their fields n equipment are way bigger than stag n their abandonments coats are way way higher.

As investors we can only compare with peers in the same industry. Dun mix n get crazy. Chill n relax. Ask at the egm

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-03-20 13:35 | Report Abuse

I am actually more interested in the value of the stag fields oil reserves with infill on a per share basis based on todays oil price.

Hope sonapetroleum will advise on this.

Stock markets are forward looking. Not backward. That's why equities can be used to hedge against inflation...well to a certain degree.

Good luck n be cool

Posted by Wong Heam Kiew > 2016-03-20 15:08 | Report Abuse

Page 60 of the circular, for 9 months 2015, Operating expenditure per sales bbl was A$69.1 or RM198.5, around USD48.4?

Posted by anakayambursa > 2016-03-20 16:17 | Report Abuse

go to agm and ask anything you unsure..agm will be at shangrila KL on 30/3

ill be going to agm also and am really positive on this QA

Posted by tyran > 2016-03-20 23:26 | Report Abuse

guys if i wish to vote for the resolution and want to appoint the chairman as my proxy, what do i put as the proxy name? "the chairman" enough?

I think the 2nd last para on page 48 should be read this way:
- If I submit the Form of Proxy, but so bodoh left the instructions blank
- AND I did not submit the pink Request Form
= THEN this is deemed as an instruction to vote YES for all.

However if i do nothing:
- I DON'T submit the Proxy Form,
- AND I DON't submit the pink Request Form
= THEN my vote is burnt, doesn't apply either way

So...for all those who want the QA to succeed, YOU HAVE TO SUBMIT THE PROXY FORM and mark X for YES (or leave it blank, but why go through the trouble of sending the form only to leave it blank?) - Only then your YES vote will be counted

Posted by CLIQmanagement > 2016-03-21 09:43 | Report Abuse

started to learn that this QA is more complicated than i thought.
I choose to vote against it. Sorry.

Posted by Ant > 2016-03-21 10:12 | Report Abuse

seem like still in "asking support"

Posted by mikewkt > 2016-03-21 10:13 | Report Abuse

For those who would like to nominate the "Chairman" as your proxy, Just write "CHAIRMAN" at the proxy form and leave blank for the IC and Address.

Posted by speakup > 2016-03-21 10:16 | Report Abuse

open letter to SONA MANAGEMENT:

IF YOU WANT THE QA TO BE SUCCESSFUL, PLEASE PUSH UP SONA MOTHER TO ABOVE THE NET CASH VALUE OF 49SEN. OTHERWISE WE WILL VOTE NO AND YOU WILL BE OUT OF JOB.

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-03-21 10:18 | Report Abuse

Why are they still so quiet? Why arent they responding at least on some questions we asked yet. Any clarification helps.

I am getting disappointed

Posted by 15% to 20% > 2016-03-21 10:37 | Report Abuse

RM0.49 is before deducting expenses of closing the business

Posted by Wong Heam Kiew > 2016-03-21 10:47 | Report Abuse

To me, expenditure per barrel of around USD48.4 is not competitive at the moment, the only hope is on brent moving to USD60, but how likely? Might as well take back the money.

Posted by akhan1717 > 2016-03-21 10:49 | Report Abuse

monink guys...do agree with coolinvestor analitics..make sence..u guys wont regret in this investment..i m definately voting a yes n am confident the like of other genuin investors..for the negative "investors"who i think are a dissapointed bunch of failures plse do the right thing ...get lost from this forum..

Posted by Yunus > 2016-03-21 10:57 | Report Abuse

I will reiterate a vote for YES on SONA! This is based on the good job they have done to halve the purchase price for STAG with cash reserves available to boost production. Lets vote YES to a company that has done all the right things and with potential to reward shareholders in future.

Posted by akhan1717 > 2016-03-21 11:05 | Report Abuse

we have waited for the QA to be approved and when its in its last milestone i dont see any problems related to the investment as far as P/L is concerned..it is a money making machine waiting to print money considering the oil prices now ....there is no way for us investors othere than a YES vote..
For sure we know tht the promoter has agreed to extend their shares monotorium to 2018 which clearly indicate the commitment to ensure investor interest is protected first as of the negative comments by a a bunch of 3 or 4 ppl in this forum who r saying otherwise..and i feel this ppl has bad intention or mayb representing some group of ppl who wants to take advantage of the current situation.which i feel Bursa and SC must take heed and investigate.Hope the investors bring up this pertinent in the EGM for consideration...thks

Posted by akhan1717 > 2016-03-21 11:08 | Report Abuse

...hope the host of this blog to keep record of all comments which can be of good use if an investigation commends..