based on my opinion, since price starting to drop, some holding many share the people will choose to dump share kaw kaw to make other people scare and dump also so that they will buy back again at cheapest price, if they not dump kaw kaw, other people wont be lose emotional to dump the share.. i mean for those company still earn profit..
Market is a bit gittery at the moment. Econpile being in the construction industry faces double the impact compared to others (just like o&g industry)
In terms of valuation, the company should be able to get at least RM60mil in profit. At the current price, thats around 9.5x fwd PE which is actually not that expensive. Just that investors need to be prepare to faced the volatility as highly likely that the PAT recorded for the 2Q, 3Q & 4Q of FY19 would be lower vs those recorded in FY18 (it would show -ve growth).
But in the end a bottom will be realised (it can't just keep going downwards) given that it is still a profitable company.
Earning is one thing, their debts are higher compare to prior years which will eat into the margin. If their revenue growing then, that is fine, but if not, then the directions seem not right.......
the lastest Q just show that, lower magin, lower revenue growth..... but unless this is seasonal thing
I think the reasons for the fall of the stock price are both the market sentiment and the negative growth of earnings .
I think investors are just worried that the margin compression that we see in 1Q19 is here to stay. The negative outlook of the construction and property industries might make it challenging for the company to asked for higher margins from their clients now that there will be a lot of contractors eyeing for a smaller pie of future projects.
That being Econpile has always proven its capabilities to create value to investors. I guess investors need to have a longer term investment horizon when buying into this company.
Hi Hahagang,
Yes their debt actually increase compared to last year. But in term of net gearing it is still only 15% of equity. Still manageable i think.
commonsense, being the only piling business for construction, i think they will be the first to consider by Contractors.
Investors are worry about the correction. Banker like Aminvest gave a very low valuation contrary to Malacca Securities. I can't say Aminvest is correct. They may be the one who push down the price to 34.
I don't think econpile is the only piling contractor in the Malaysia. But u are right to point out they are the preferable contractors due to their ability to deliver the projects on time and on budget.
Aminvest is just being cautious in coming up with the TP as most property and construction companies are currently trading below 10x fwd earnings. That being said, if the company managed to improved their profit margins in the coming quarters, it might be a signal for a rating or valuation improvement.
Like i said, if u decide to invest in the company u will need to look beyond 2019.
Wouldn't recommend you to put all your eggs in one basket. Better to diversified a bit of your portfolio. You can never be 100% sure what will happen.
If you are looking for stocks outside of construction of property industries to diversified into, i would recommend MBMR. The company is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest. Valuation is cheap at only 5.3x PE (based on target FY18 PATAMI of RM145mil. 9m PATAMI is already at RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.5xBV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year 4Q17.
The other listed piling companies are Ikhmas Jaya Group Berhad and Pintaras Jaya Berhad. That being said Econpile is the biggest listed piling companies in Bursa both in term of market capitalisation and 12 months trailing revenue. I agree with you that it is one of the preferable piling companies in the construction industry due to its ability to deliver project on time and budget.
With regards to MBMR, it is a direct proxy to Perodua who's strength is in the entry level market. Perodua's vehicle has actually come down by an average of 3% post SST vs during the GST regime.
Perodua's October sales number of 19,528 cars is an improvement of 18% vs 2017 October sales of 16,491. Most analyst are projecting 4Q to be higher compared to the recent 3Q. Growth in FY19 to continue driven by still higher demand of new Myvi and the new Perodua SUV to be launch in 1Q19.
The attractiveness of MBMR lies in its very undemanding valuation of only 5.3x PE vs the industry average of 12- 15x. PB itself is only 0.5x.
thanks for the advice, but I like big risk, not going to all in at once though, but I am 50% in. I think currently the valuation is very cheap, if it gets cheaper I'll put in more
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stockholm999
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Posted by stockholm999 > 2018-11-29 15:31 | Report Abuse
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