I heard there is market shortage of petrochemical supply, ASP price will shoot up due to high demand, many petrochemical producer shutoff 1H18 due to plant maintenance. Yet raw material price is firm btw US$ 500 ~ $550 range. Opportunity is high to accumulate now if has chance.
Yes this is absolutely correct. Envisage short supply in China due to environmental controls. Global supply expected to be short of demand. Hence, rise in ASP.
CANBERA (Alliance News) - Asian stocks turned in a mixed performance on Tuesday as trade-war worries persisted and investors waited for cues from new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's first policy meeting, with the central bank widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.
The two-day meeting starts later Tuesday, with the policy decision announced on Wednesday.
Sentiment was damped after Facebook shares suffered the biggest one-day drop in four years overnight amid allegations that political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica inappropriately obtained and used the social media giant's user data.
Have faith toward Korea Lotte mgmt., LCTITAN share is on consolidation price, testing seller sentiment & mood with less volume. Low volume, yet price stand quite firm. My believe, it's an accumulate mode period for patience buyer before price re-spike up again.
For year 2017 to 2021 the best thing that Lctitan can have in their M’sian operation is the tax free status.Imagine the 25% of profit will be counted as profit !
@Abismail, China impose this chemical duties tariff only for Methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) from South Korea, Japan and South Africa, to prevent dumping duties on Methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) from South Korea, Japan and South Africa. Only this item is affected & other chemical not affected so far. China raise this tariff to prevent this MIBK been dumped on the Chinese market, causing material injury to the domestic MIBK industry.
Anyhow, LCTITAN does not have the MIBK chemical product. LCTITAN main products are PE(Polyethylene), PP (Polypropylene) & Olefin (Ethylene, propylene, butadiene, etc). So it is safe from China duties impose export item.
Posted by kelvin_ik4u > Mar 22, 2018 11:33 AM | Report Abuse
@Abismail, China impose this chemical duties tariff only for Methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) from South Korea, Japan and South Africa, to prevent dumping duties on Methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) from South Korea, Japan and South Africa. Only this item is affected & other chemical not affected so far. China raise this tariff to prevent this MIBK been dumped on the Chinese market, causing material injury to the domestic MIBK industry.
Anyhow, LCTITAN does not have the MIBK chemical product. LCTITAN main products are PE(Polyethylene), PP (Polypropylene) & Olefin (Ethylene, propylene, butadiene, etc). So it is safe from China duties impose export item.
Recently Sinchew & Nanyang business section reported that analyst/fund mgrs who visited the LCTITAN plant-tour site, stated that it mgmt. predict plant utilization rate overall will reach average 90% for whole 2018, far better than 73% of last year. Plus, this year 2018 maintenance capital expenditure expected to reduce to ~RM100mil (2% ~ 3% of annual revenue) compare to RM400mil last year. It also stated that all improvement in Utilization on cracker is completely repaired & stable, operating performance efficiency will back to normalized >90% for 2018.
With strong product market demand, tightening global supply, China government environment policy curb for many local producers shutdown forcing substitution via imports, coupled with rising ASP selling price, I believe it will be good for LCTITAN for this 1H2018 at least.
I'm not expecting this 1Q18 Qtr earning to be a very outstanding result, as long as it EPS hit within 18sen ~ 20sen range, that a very good sign for massive projection growth for whole 2018. Improvement & recovery take time, so be patience and continue for a 2018 growth ride.
US tariffs started, impose $50bil on China import, 25% affect $13bil revenue lose for China. It kinda a small vs total US-China trade was $500bil per year. China retaliate with start impose $3bil tariffs on US import steel, fruit and wine.
This will not affect Lctitan as petrochemical does not ship to US, businees no impact. However market sentiment make cause investor fear. It will be an opportunity to collect from investors fear.
Highest mostly is 6.3 range Guess everyone scare to hold above 6.5 cos many investors got trap at there .. Now looks like will the investor cut their losses anot ..
everybody can talk loud TP 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, 11.5 ...... 6.5 already at high resistant to break. today just the first day, more to come in the next few days can enter at more cheap price.
Market noise and price fluctuation does affect our medium to long term judgement. Important is the business fundamental growth or industry sector affected or not. No matter it can hit TP 6.5 or whatsoever, if the business revenue & earning is growing up, eventually it will raise as what Warren Buffet's advise for investor for long term gain. That what differentiate why less than 5~10% investor win multi-baggar return in share market vs 90% lose in equities market.
Base on the analysis report 乐天大腾化学 产能改善利业绩 the 2018 forecast earning is 64.4 cents which means each quarter around 16.1 cents. Dividen with 32.2 cents for FY18.
Since the efficiency increase to 90%, and capex reduction to 100mil for FY 2018, we should have at least 16 cents/ Q this coming quarter. In this coming AGM i will purpose to the company provide the profit guidance for investor for upcoming quarter.
LCtitan at the end will be benefitted on the trade 'cold' war. As for the product is demand over supply one thing secondly, factories are set up in Malaysia, Indonesia by South Korean. We have all the means to continue to grow in macro political environment!!! Thts the real fact, so park your fund as for the current index counters are losing in market capital when LCTITan is going to replace them.!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
cstrader
937 posts
Posted by cstrader > 2018-03-19 21:38 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow is opportunity to buy on dips, if Dow drops. LC Titan definitely game for 7.00 before end-March. Few sellers.