CPO futures mart seen trending lower
Publish date: Sat, 12 May 2012, 01:21 PM
Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are expected to trade between RM3,300 and RM3,400 per tonne.
A dealer said Friday's lower price might attract buyers to participate in the market.
However, Interband Group of Companies Senior Palm Oil Trader Jim Teh expects the local market to trend lower next week with the price of CPO hovering between RM3,000 and RM3,050 per tonne.
"We expect demand to be slower next month due to weak China trade data and concerns over the global economic outlook," he told Bernama.
He said buyers, mainly from China, India and Pakistan, would likely come in due to CPO's lower price.
"We hope physical buyers will participate in the market to clear out the inventory which currently stands at two million tonnes," he said.
Teh said the CPO price might start to rise in September due to the dry season.
"External sentiment, including developments in the eurozone, will continue to have an impact on the local CPO market," he added.
This week, the CPO futures traded lower with prices moving between RM3,275 per tonne and RM3,360 per tonne.
May 2012 fell RM80 to RM3,285 per tonne, June 2012 and July 2012 dropped RM83 each to RM3,283 and RM3,275 respectively, while August 2012 was down by RM73 to RM3,265 per tonne.
The weekly turnover rose to 136,742 lots from 113,751 lots while open interest was lower at 123,742 contracts compared to 128,166 contracts previously.
On the physical market, May South lost RM90 to 3,310 per tonne. -- BERNAMA
A dealer said Friday's lower price might attract buyers to participate in the market.
However, Interband Group of Companies Senior Palm Oil Trader Jim Teh expects the local market to trend lower next week with the price of CPO hovering between RM3,000 and RM3,050 per tonne.
"We expect demand to be slower next month due to weak China trade data and concerns over the global economic outlook," he told Bernama.
He said buyers, mainly from China, India and Pakistan, would likely come in due to CPO's lower price.
"We hope physical buyers will participate in the market to clear out the inventory which currently stands at two million tonnes," he said.
Teh said the CPO price might start to rise in September due to the dry season.
"External sentiment, including developments in the eurozone, will continue to have an impact on the local CPO market," he added.
This week, the CPO futures traded lower with prices moving between RM3,275 per tonne and RM3,360 per tonne.
May 2012 fell RM80 to RM3,285 per tonne, June 2012 and July 2012 dropped RM83 each to RM3,283 and RM3,275 respectively, while August 2012 was down by RM73 to RM3,265 per tonne.
The weekly turnover rose to 136,742 lots from 113,751 lots while open interest was lower at 123,742 contracts compared to 128,166 contracts previously.
On the physical market, May South lost RM90 to 3,310 per tonne. -- BERNAMA
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 3 of 3 comments
Wednesday, 16 May 2012 21:01
Wong Chen: Felda share investors will be stuck for at least 10 years
We reiterate our position that FELDA today is too politicized. Based on latest analysis, we believe that the IPO is being rushed for political reasons and IS not BASED on fundamental economic merits of FGVH.
We refer to the recent Wall Street Journal report on FGVH’s IPO, where concerns were raised about the profitability of FGVH due to its tree profile.
Generally a company will pursue a listing when it is in a strong position (to get maximum valuation) or when it is set to grow tremendously. FGVH is neither at its prime nor is it set for high growth. Instead the IPO prospectus reveals that it is in fact a struggling plantation concern.
Replanting poorly planned
At its most fundamental level, FGVH's palm oil tree age profile reveals the board of directors’ unbelievable lack of attention on its tree profile management. A shocking 53% of the trees are old, 31% young and immature and only a dismal 16% at its prime. Imagine a company performing only at 16% of its true potential seeking an IPO.
As comparison, a healthy well managed plantation company will have an average tree profile of 7% old and 15% young and immature and 78% prime.
Share investors will be stuck for 10 years
What the shocking tree profile means is FGVH will be stuck for at least 10 years before the majority of its plants become prime. So if you buy the shares today, you will have to wait at least 10 years before the company normalizes its planting profile and start to perform like a good plantation company should.
So, if FGVH is not ready to list because of its weak fundamentals, then why the rush to list?
FELDA and the government need to answer why they are so gung ho on the listing. Could the listing be by driven by politics by an over politicized board of directors? Is the prime motivation to list aimed at enriching bankers and advisors, the board of directors of FELDA and also to provide a windfall payout to settlers to buy political support?
Who will earn what?
FGVH is set to be a USD3 billion IPO, the 2nd largest in the world this year and the bankers and advisors to the IPO could potentially make tens of millions of ringgit of fees.
We demand that FELDA and the government fully disclose the itemized fees to be received by the bankers and advisors as a result of this nonsensical listing.
Wong Chen is chairman of the PKR Investment and Trade Bureau
result of this nonsensical listing.
2012-05-17 06:56
FGVH listing is a marketing (publicity) strategy for the BN to lock in the Felda settlers votes. the Felda (Risda) votes has an effect on at least 50-60 parliament seats (out of 222 seats). this block of votes is substantial to tilt any balance (shift) in power. PR is also working very hard to gain (part) of the voters share.
Felda/Risda was previously under the Ministry of Agriculture portfolio. but knowing their importance, now (Felda/Risda) is both under the PM Department. BN understand the importance of securing this block of voters. politics far out weight under business considerations
2012-05-17 09:11
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Wednesday, 16 May 2012 21:01
Wong Chen: Felda share investors will be stuck for at least 10 years
We reiterate our position that FELDA today is too politicized. Based on latest analysis, we believe that the IPO is being rushed for political reasons and IS not BASED on fundamental economic merits of FGVH.
We refer to the recent Wall Street Journal report on FGVH’s IPO, where concerns were raised about the profitability of FGVH due to its tree profile.
Generally a company will pursue a listing when it is in a strong position (to get maximum valuation) or when it is set to grow tremendously. FGVH is neither at its prime nor is it set for high growth. Instead the IPO prospectus reveals that it is in fact a struggling plantation concern.
Replanting poorly planned
At its most fundamental level, FGVH's palm oil tree age profile reveals the board of directors’ unbelievable lack of attention on its tree profile management. A shocking 53% of the trees are old, 31% young and immature and only a dismal 16% at its prime. Imagine a company performing only at 16% of its true potential seeking an IPO.
As comparison, a healthy well managed plantation company will have an average tree profile of 7% old and 15% young and immature and 78% prime.
Share investors will be stuck for 10 years
What the shocking tree profile means is FGVH will be stuck for at least 10 years before the majority of its plants become prime. So if you buy the shares today, you will have to wait at least 10 years before the company normalizes its planting profile and start to perform like a good plantation company should.
So, if FGVH is not ready to list because of its weak fundamentals, then why the rush to list?
FELDA and the government need to answer why they are so gung ho on the listing. Could the listing be by driven by politics by an over politicized board of directors? Is the prime motivation to list aimed at enriching bankers and advisors, the board of directors of FELDA and also to provide a windfall payout to settlers to buy political support?
Who will earn what?
FGVH is set to be a USD3 billion IPO, the 2nd largest in the world this year and the bankers and advisors to the IPO could potentially make tens of millions of ringgit of fees.
We demand that FELDA and the government fully disclose the itemized fees to be received by the bankers and advisors as a result of this nonsensical listing.
2012-05-17 06:52