- Mitrajaya’s earnings have reached an inflection point after its core net profit (netting off the RM4.2m land disposal gain in Rawang) grew significantly by 40% to RM25.1m in FY13, driven its construction and property divisions. According to the management, its orderbook has reached its all-time high of RM1.2b (3.3x to FY13 revenue), 140% higher than that of its previous historical high of RM500m. As for its property division, there is RM80m locked-in sales, which will be recognised this year and about RM146m ready stock yet to be sold. Based on our conservative analysis, we forecast Mitrajaya’s core earnings could at least report high double digit net profit growth of 52% and 31% in FY14 and FY15. This is substantially higher than that of our construction universe’ aggregate FY14-FY15 earnings growth forecast of 16%-9%.

- Tenderbook of RM1.75b, targeting to win at least RM300m this year. Tenderbook includes: Petronas RAPID project (RM600m), building works for Ikano Cochrane (RM350m), infra projects for ECERDC (RM300m), building works for Bandar Setia Alam (RM300m), and building works for Putrajaya (RM200m). The management expects to win at least RM300m this year and that, we believe, will be coming mainly from building works in Putrajaya and other infra projects. Note that Mitrajaya has established a long-term relationship (10 years) with Putrajaya Holdings through its excellent project delivery track record. The latest project they secured with Putrajaya Holdings Bhd was the RM427m MACC Building last year. With this track record and background, we believe Mitrajaya is well-placed to win more contracts from Putrajaya.

- Key catalyst for property division: Wangsa Maju. Mitrajaya will be launching a property project comprising 3-blocks of luxury condominiums in Wangsa Maju starting 4Q2014. Total GDV for the whole project is estimated at RM650m and it is located right opposite Wangsa Walk Mall and is only 150m away from Sri Rampai LRT station. Despite the property cooling measures, we believe this project will achieve strong take-up rates due to the strategic location. According to the management, 1st phase of the project will be around RM200m and we expect this project to contribute significantly from FY16 onwards.

- Other businesses to support earnings growth. We understand Mitrajaya has other businesses, including (i) a 51% stake in Optimax Eye Specialist Sdn Bhd, one of the largest optical companies in Malaysia and (ii) 152 acres of bungalow vacant lots and 18-hole golf course in South Africa. The former contributes about close to RM1.0m last year while the latter contribute about RM5.0m last year mostly through land sales. We expect at least it could maintain the same quantum of last year’s profit through land sales. We believe these two divisions will likely continue to support its earnings growth in the foreseeable future.

- Forecasts. We forecast its net profit to grow by 52% and 31% in FY14 and FY15 to RM38.3m and RM49.9m, respectively. The earnings growth is based on the following assumptions: (i) orderbook burn rate of 33%-35%, (ii) new contracts assumption of RM300m per annum, (iii) unbilled sales of around RM80m coupled with expected new sales of RM50m-RM115m in FY14-FY15.

- Fairly valued at RM1.13, TRADING BUY. We reckon that this under researched stock, Mitrajaya, is one of small-cap stocks with good growth prospect that worth considering given its visible earnings growth prospects. At current price, Mitrajaya appears very cheap as it is only trading at Fwd-PER15 of 6.0x against its small-cap peers average Fwd-PER of 8x-10x. Benchmarked at 9x fwd-PER on FY15 earnings, Mitrajaya is fairly valued at RM1.13. TRADING BUY, as the stock offers 50% potential upside.

Source: Kenanga