Construction - Timely order book replenishment

Date: 
2014-09-19
Firm: 
HLG
Stock: 
Price Target: 
7.09
Price Call: 
HOLD
Last Price: 
2.97
Upside/Downside: 
+4.12 (138.72%)
Firm: 
HLG
Stock: 
Price Target: 
2.26
Price Call: 
HOLD
Last Price: 
0.83
Upside/Downside: 
+1.43 (172.29%)
Firm: 
HLG
Stock: 
Price Target: 
0.57
Price Call: 
HOLD
Last Price: 
0.365
Upside/Downside: 
+0.205 (56.16%)
Firm: 
HLG
Stock: 
Price Target: 
2.48
Price Call: 
HOLD
Last Price: 
0.105
Upside/Downside: 
+2.375 (2261.90%)
Firm: 
HLG
Stock: 
Price Target: 
1.97
Price Call: 
BUY
Last Price: 
0.53
Upside/Downside: 
+1.44 (271.70%)
Firm: 
HLG
Stock: 
Price Target: 
2.18
Price Call: 
BUY
Last Price: 
Upside/Downside: 
+2.18 (∞%)

News 

According  to  Starbiz,  Works  Minister  Datuk  Fadillah  Yusuf said that  work on seven new  highways  will start  next  year, offering jobs worth ~RM20bn for the construction sector. The highway projects mentioned are:

Project - Value (RM bn)

  • Duta-Ulu Kelang Expressway (DUKE) extension - 1.18
  • West Coast Expressway (WCE)  - 5.04
  • Kinrara-Damansara Expressway (Kidex) - 2.50
  • KL Outer Ring Road (KLORR)  - 1.50
  • Damansara-Shah Alam Expressway (DASH) - 4.18
  • Sg. Besi-Ulu Kelang Elevated Expressway (SUKE) - 4.30
  • Serdang-Kinrara-Putrajaya Highway (SKIP) n.a.
  • Total  18.70

The Work Minister said that most of the projects are in the process of seeking approvals from the state authorities and relevant bodies. He also said that DASH and Kidex projects are  in  the  process  of  seeking  public  consultation  and  final approval from the state.

Comments 

Timely  order  book  replenishment…  We  believe commencement of the abovementioned highway projects is timely  to  replenish  the  order  books  of  bigger  construction companies that have been shrinking in the absence of new jobs in the country.

Not  new  &  largely  priced  in…  Out of the seven highway projects, six have been previously speculated in the market. Only  the  SKIP  highway  has  sketchy  information.  As  such, we  believe  that  market  has  mostly  priced  in  the  above projects  as  part  of  contract  wins  assumption  for  major construction players.

Key  beneficiaries…  We  believe  key  beneficiaries  for  the estimated RM20bn highway projects will be IJM (HOLD; TP: RM7.09),  WCT  (HOLD;  RM2.26),  TRC  (HOLD;  TP: RM0.57),  Mudajaya  (HOLD;  TP:  RM2.48),  AZRB  (not rated) and Bina Puri (not rated).

Risks 

Execution risk;  unexpected downturn in the construction and property sector;  rising raw material prices;  and  political and regulatory risks.

Rating/ Valuation

Maintain NEUTRAL on the construction sector in view of the imminent  delays  of  Governm ent-related  projects,  slowdown in the property sector, coupled with greater scrutiny from the opposition party on mega projects. Top Picks  Top picks in order of preference are:

  • MRCB (BUY; TP: RM1.97); and
  • HSL (BUY; TP: RM2.18)

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 19 Sep 2014

Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 2 of 2 comments

miapancho

fong7 India’s Supreme Court has confirmed the cancellation of more than 200 coal licences held by dozens of private sector industrial groups, sending stocks in affected companies down sharply.
In a harsher than expected decision, the court on Wednesday also levied fines of about $1.2bn on the owners of the cancelled licences, and said that mines affected could be handed to state-backed mining group Coal India before being re-auctioned.
In August, the court declared as “arbitrary and illegal” the process by which 218 licences to mine coal had been handed out to businesses in sectors such as power and steelmaking, following allegations of irregularities brought by anti-corruption campaigners.
The formal cancellation of the licences hit shares in a range of Indian power, steel and aluminium groups, while dashing hopes that groups with operational mines would be allowed to keep them.
Jindal Steel and Power, an industrial conglomerate owned by billionaire tycoon Naveen Jindal, closed down 10 per cent shortly after the ruling.
A range of industrial groups, including energy venture Adani power and steelmaker Tata Steel, also fell on the news.
Companies that had begun mining under the now-cancelled licences now face fines of approximately $1.2bn, according to estimates from analysts at Macquarie.
Jindal Steel and Power, the worst affected group, is set to pay close to $500m.
Shares in Indian public sector banks also fell on worries that the ruling could lead to a jump in bad loans in sectors such as power and metals.
Concern over mine cancellations has cast a shadow over the recent tentative recovery of India’s industrial economy, and raised concerns about a knock-on impact on coal supplies, with many power companies facing fuel shortages.
The decision represented a defeat for India’s government, which had argued that operational mines should remain with their owners, potentially in exchange for a fine.
“This is a tough ruling, the companies were hoping that working mines would be in some ways protected, but this has not happened,” said Kameswara Rao, an energy specialist at consultants PwC in India. “But this does present a far cleaner slate on which the government can begin a new policy, in which everything will be re-auctioned, so it isn’t all bad.”
The ruling is also a blow for companies such as UK-listed Vedanta Resources, who now have to rebid for mining licences that they had previously acquired, but which had not yet begun operations.
Shares in Coal India closed up nearly 5 per cent, however, on news that it would take control of any operational mines by April 2015, giving India’s government breathing space to allow the mines to be re-auctioned.
Billionaire Anil Ambani’s Reliance Power also jumped more than 5 per cent, as the court said that a mine providing coal for a major power plant operated by the group would not be affected by the ruling.
Companies hit by the Supreme Court’s decision have said little in public about their plight since the first ruling in August, but anti-corruption campaigners welcomed Wednesday’s decision.
Environmental group Greenpeace called the decision “a victory for the environment and the people of India against rampant corruption and crony capitalism rife in the resource extraction industry”.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014


HOPE MUDAJAYA IS NOT AFFECTED BY THIS NEWS???

2014-09-28 17:58

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