KLSE Bear and Bull

KLSE Bear and Bull

Equityengineer
Publish date: Mon, 17 Aug 2015, 11:31 PM
Equityengineer
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The definition on we are in bull market and bear market is always subject to debate. Corrections do happens time to time, but bear extends to months to years and push panic button in the world economy. The bull does not end when investors think, "that it, i think no more bullish", it ends when there is excessiveness build up, hence recession follow up. Just for perspective, i've made some data collection which is closing price form top to bottom at some range of time. Its not necessary means we were bullish or bearish, its just some "toppish" to "bottomish" KLSE index.

The perspective as like below:-

 

 

Summary:-

Stats Up/Down Duration(yrs)
Min Bear -18.53% 0.39
Average Bear -40.38% 0.9
Max Bear -79.38% 2.3
Min Bull 29.04 0.39
Average Bul4 120.90% 2.4
Max Bull 285.71% 6.07

 

In summary,bulls always last long in history of equity market and the decline phase  will be rapid then upward. Its easy for an index to lose 10% than to gain 10%. This is very common. IN KLSE the worst bear was in 1998 financial crisis and the logest last about 2.4 years in the year 1986. By average bear is about 40% decline. If you look at chart from 1st June 2014 till now we have lost about 16% and still ticking downwards for 1 years old, which happened after oil price start to decline rapidly. This definition might be different base on perception, but since my analysis starts from top to bottom then we were already in bear market in making since commodity starts to fall; lately the speculative nature of higher interest rates in US and China devalue yuan too can be the cause. 

I've linked some data is you are interested ,hope someone can make use and further give great insights

 

Date Index Percentages (up/down) Duration(yrs)
30 August, 1981 540.33    
12 August, 1982 220.74 -59.15% 1.032738095
8 February, 1984 426.79 93.35% 1.62202381
2 May, 1986 169.83 -60.21% 2.422619048
10 August, 1987 470.16 176.84% 1.383928571
7 December, 1987 223.12 -52.54% 0.354166667
1 August, 1990 633.22 183.80% 2.880952381
28 September, 1990 459.08 -27.50% 0.172619048
29 May, 1991 635.02 38.32% 0.723214286
19 August, 1991 505.47 -20.40% 0.244047619
5 January, 1994 1314.46 160.05% 2.589285714
24 January, 1995 840.87 -36.03% 1.142857143
5 June, 1995 1085.04 29.04% 0.392857143
14 November, 1995 883.96 -18.53% 0.482142857
25 February, 1997 1271.57 43.85% 1.395833333
1 September, 1998 262.7 -79.34% 1.645833333
18 February, 2000 1013.27 285.71% 1.592261905
9 April, 2001 553.34 -45.39% 1.238095238
23 April, 2002 808.07 46.03% 1.12797619
3 December, 2002 616.46 -23.71% 0.666666667
11 January, 2008 1516.22 145.96% 5.550595238
29 October, 2008 829.41 -45.30% 0.869047619
1 June, 2014 1882.7 126.99% 6.074404762
17 January, 2015 1572.54 -16.47% 0.68452381

 

Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 4 of 4 comments

Sniper88

Hi, it is a very useful guide. However, in term of duration, it will be great if you can rephrase it into month (instead of year). tq

2015-08-18 00:50

Sniper88

Also, it will be even great if you can let us know when exactly the bottoms or peaks was hit during each bull & bear mkt. TQ again

2015-08-18 00:53

calvintaneng

WE ARE STILL IN CORRECTION PHASE. NOT YET IN SUPER BEAR TERRITORY YET.

IT TAKES MONTHS DURING BULLISH PHASE TO MOVE UP BY STAGES. BUT IT TAKES ONLY A FEW WEEKS OR EVEN DAYS TO SEE IT CRASH AND PLUMMET DOWN LIKE A STONE!

IN SUPER BULL PHASE MANY COUNTERS SUDDENLY GO LIMIT UP WHILE THE OPPOSITE IS THE NORM DURING SUPER BEAR PHASE - MANY COUNTERS MIGHT SUDDENLY GO LIMIT DOWN!

IF YOU CANNOT STOMACH THESE TERRIBLE TIMES BETTER STAY AWAY.

CHEAP IS A RELATIVE WORD IN BEAR PHASE. WHAT APPEARS CHEAP NOW MIGHT LOOK EXPENSIVE NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE CHEAP CAN GO CHEAPER IN LIMIT DOWN COLLAPSE.

IF YOU ARE STILL LIQUID AND HAVE NERVE OF STEEL THEN AVERAGE DOWN SLOWLY. PHASE OUT YOUR BUYING AND BE PREPARED TO HOLD FOR AT LEAST 7 YEARS.

2015-08-18 01:00

calvintaneng

ARE WE IN A BEAR MARKET？

MR. JOHN SMITH SAID THIS IN PERTH, "PEOPLE IN PERTH, WESTERN AUSTRALIA DON‘T REALLY KNOW WHAT IS WINTER. THEY CALL IT WINTER WHEN TEMPERATURE FELL TO 10 DEGREE CELCIUS.

JOHN WHO IS FROM LONDON HAS EXPERIENCED BELOW ZERO CELCIUS IN ENGLAND. ON DAYS WHEN DEEP SNOW HAS FALLEN YOU CANNOT EVEN OPEN THE FRONT DOOR TO GET OUT.

SO IN REAL BEAR MARKET LIKE OCTOBER 29 1929 ……THERE ARE ONLY SELL ORDERS. NO BUY ORDERS IN SIGHT. AND IF THERE ARE ANY SHARES ARE THROWN TO THEM BY THE MILLIONS.

HOPEFULLY, PM NAJIB WILL DO SOMETHING TO AVERT MALAYSIA FROM SUCH AGONY OF TOTAL COLLAPSE IN CONFIDENCE BOTH WITH REGARD TO RINGGIT AND THE KLSE.

PRAY FOR MALAYSIA.

2015-08-18 01:14

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