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Bitcoin - An Institutional View

DividendGuy67
Publish date: Thu, 23 Jan 2025, 05:58 AM

Saw this, from Standard Chartered. 

Key Callouts

"Rising institutional inflows ... bolster long term prospects"

"We recommend buying the dips ..."

"Report reaffirmed ... Bitcoin ... projected to hit $200,000 ... by the end of 2025, as institutional investors increase their allocations to crypto-related ETFs"

"... pension funds would become significant holders of Bitcoin ..."

"...only 1% had exposure to crypto ..." (99% have NOTHING).

Standard Chartered views:  Expects 3 distinct phases in 2025:

  1. Price declines as optimism wanes, maybe drop 10%-20%
  2. Institutions buy the dips as Trump Administration begin to implement crypto-friendly policies.
  3. Recovery (assumes ETF approval for Altcoin like LTC or UNI - my view is much less likely odds, than say Bitcoin price jumping up first).

"Institutional interest ... strong ... only 1% pension trusts have Bitcoin"

".. near term downside risks persists (yey! Opportunities!) ... current environment presents strategic entry points for long term investors ..."

Summary and Conclusion

My view is Standard Chartered, like many institutional analysts are starting to see the early trend, that institutional investors like pension funds are under-allocated in Bitcoin - 99% of pension funds still have zero Allocation to Bitcoin.  

This is a new mega-trend that can only persist for a long time.  Mega-trend opportunities don't come every day - if you capitalize only once in your lifetime, in a trend as early as this, you will be very rich.  This is the fundamental tailwind behind our back.  This creates the "higher lows" in Bitcoin price.   

I feel Standard Chartered's Bitcoin price target of $200,000 by 2025 year end carries a wide range.   If Trump did not pass the BITCOIN Act in 2025, I feel we will see $140k-$180k, because the Bitcoin ETF Option Implied Volatility which hovers around 60% on normal days (without Trump news) suggests that the expected returns is around 60% per annum.   If the options IV is 60% and actual returns is only 10% say, then, the Option Sellers like myself just discovered free lunch in the markets - i.e. we can sell bucketloads of Options, make millions with no risk, and we can short it at the Sell Call side (a bearish strategy, since the Options are priced assuming 60% upside but actual upside is only 10% say).   In my extensive Options trading experience, there is absolutely no free lunches in financial and Options market.  The Options market price over a period will always get it right eventually, and 12 months is long enough for it to get it right, hence, my view is 60% expected returns +/- 20% say, giving me a target returns of +40% to +80% returns.

And if Trump passes the BITCOIN Act sometime during 2025, then, $200,000 price target is TOO LOW in my humble opinion.

My view is this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to get in early in Bitcoin's new mega trend.  Squandering this chance is a crime.  Betting small in the Bitcoin opportunity, right at this juncture is a huge mistake as what Buffett and all the market wizards would say, when you see such a rare opportunity.  

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