PBBANK is so liquid, I can publicly announce my plans BEFORE hand and it has no impact to my trade executions. However, other stocks I can't announce, as liquidity is lower.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-24-story-h-160805766-PBBANK_I_added_at_4_18.

As shown in the chart, it hasn't reached the bottom line yet. As price falls, the odds increases that it will touch the bottom uptrend line. And if it keeps falling, odds increases that it will fall BELOW that long term uptrend line temporarily. I am spreading my buys to allow for all these possibilities, whilst maintaining position sizing. Add SLOWLY at lower prices or do nothing until it reaches the bottom of that uptrend line.

Remember to watch your position size - don't be greedy. I'm still quite far from 5% capital for this holding, so, welcome to add at lower prices in months to come via GTC Buy Limit orders i.e. no need to watch the market.

My GTC Buy Fill order at RM4 was filled. Slowly queuing and adding at lower prices, including below RM4. Plenty of time to accumulate as price is unlikely to run up for months. 19 sen dividend is likely to rise in years to come. 19 sen / RM4 ~ 4.8% dividend yield, what's not to like. Lower prices are coming and that's great news for long term accumulators for retirement passive income for life later.

My GTC Limit Buy order at 4.00 was filled. Plenty of time to accumulate, still no where near my full position yet, but lower price is an add and over multi-year basis, it's in accumulation zone. With DPS of 19 sen, DY has now risen to 4.8% per annum.

Objectively, can still wait for price to fall below RM4 for better pricing but I have GTC Buy orders below RM4 to wait. For long term holdings, won't argue over sens.

Thank-you ANNJOO. Thanks for helping to make my portfolio hit new high again today, that's 5th consecutive times this month in June alone!

Yes. Thanks to PPHB and greens offsetting red, today, my portfolio made new all time high again! This is 5th time this month! Thank-you PPHB, thank-you Mr Market!

@jeffrey, I explained how many stocks here:
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-11-story-h-159701327-Portfolio_All_Time_High_Profit_Watermark_June_Update

@Thirai, it's gung ho indeed if you can't cope, but if you can, do note institutional investors prefer to own much more than 50-100 stocks, due to their fund mandate and benchmarks.

Here's 3 examples:

1. PB Dividend Builder Equity Fund. Benchmark = 90% FTSE Bursa Malaysia Top 100 (FBM100) & 10% 3 month KLIBOR. Their benchmark is 100 stocks. Their overseas exposures are USA (10.0%), Taiwan (4.2%), China (2.1%), Korea (1.5%) across many different sectors i.e. their portfolio contains 3 digit stocks.
2. PB Growth Fund. Benchmark = KLCI = 30 stocks; They have exposures in US (7.0%), China (6.0%), Taiwan (1.9%), UK (1.2%) i.e. 3 digit stocks.
3. PB Islamic Equity Fund. Benchmark = FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index comprising of 220 stocks. They also invests 8.1% in the US, 4.7% in China, 3.1% Netherlands.
etc.

More important is to avoid large losses, which ever the style.

Interesting ... out of 54 open stock positions, 13 are losses, 41 winners and the $ winner far offset the losers. I have another 18 mostly trading stocks that I have closed and 18 / 18 are winners with no losers. Total winner 59 / 72 ~ 82%.

The small paper losses are mostly investing positions which include AMFIRST, BAT (trading), CARLSBG, CHINWEL, HEIM, HEKTAR, MAGNUM (trading), MAXIS, PBBANK, RAPID (trading), these 10 are extremely small % loss - I am very confident, with time, they will turn profitable, mostly by doing nothing, but some may require trading (e.g. BAT - cannot keep for too long). The 3 bigger % loss are ARREIT, ASTRO and BESHOM, all 3 are hopeless - don't enter them (I'm not), don't average down (I'm not) - my plan is to just leave them there to die a natural death as they are small. These 3 has VERY successfully reminded me for a long time - a constant reminder - not to buy a stock that is going down - that reminder has successfully enabled my portfolio to keep making new all time highs as a result.

Since I started investing in Bursa, my win rate is pretty good including paper gains/loss. 82% of my stocks investing/trading results in win, only 18% is a loss, and all 18 are paper losses so far which a majority I expect to be temporary.

I suspect my win rate is higher than many professional fund managers. Notwitstanding, I know enough to know that my analysis have limitations, that no matter how good an analysis I do, I will still be proven wrong from time to time.

My reference is the typical institutional investors like unit trust fund managers, insurance companies, banks. All of them are highly diversified, owning anywhere from 50 to 500 different stocks. In theory, they are supposed to be the true experts on analysis of stocks, with the huge professional resources they have, access to management, etc - much more than I have. Yet, they don't invest in 5 or 10 stocks. It's good to ponder why. Because if you read their IB reports, they are always surprised after next quarter or next few quarters. Noone can eliminate surprise by analysis.

I forgot to mention what I always look for before triggering which is good valuation, attractive entry price, buy during accumulation zone, can visualize higher earnings and DPS in 5, 10, 20 years time too.

I try not to over-analyze any one stock, because I have too many experiences over the past 3 decades, where I analyzed in great detail (like at least 100 times more detail), thinking I knew the most, but one day, the market threw me a curve that I could never have predicted, notwitstanding numerous detailed analysis everywhere.

In short, as retail investors, we will never ever know everything no matter how much we analyze, research, access to management and board, etc.

Because of these occasional bad past experiences, I have given up owning say 10 stocks or less - it is too few because if I lose 10% capital, it's a lot harder to make it back than losing just 2% or 3% capital.

So, my minimum number of holdings is at least 40 stocks. My experience is I only need to spend 2% of the time to analyze the big picture, and it explains 98% of the results over the long term. In short, I play the statistics. Every stock idea should be capable of being explained in 1 minute. If you can't explain the idea in 1 minutes, I pass.

So, what is FPI's one minute idea?
1. Long term chart - rising
2. Small cap with room to grow.
3. Past 10 years business growth is proven, whether RPS, EPS, DPS and/or NAPS growth - it has proven itself.
4. Speakers business is niche - FPI didn't grow like this over past 10 years if it wasn't doing something right - true next 10 years is unclear, nobody really knows, but the edge is better than 50/50.
5. Excellent financials and balance sheet today and in the past - that's good enough to earn my trust.

In short, it's good enough for me to own up to 2%-3% of capital on this stock. I have no intention to own 10% or 20% capital into this one stock - if you want to own this much, you need much greater assurance than I need, but I doubt the extra 10-100 times more analysis is going to beat the 1 minute statement above in the long run.

Just my 2 sen.

New all time high 1.07!

Today, my portfolio has 21 greens and 27 reds. However, thanks to PPHB, my portfolio made new all time high again today! Thank-you PPHB and Thank-you Mr Market!

@speakup, lol. I wish. Mr Market has proven me wrong so many times, I completely lost count, and I will continue to be wrong many, many more times in future.

For GENM, I also wish 15 sen dividend is guaranteed, but we both know this is never guaranteed too. I sincerely hope people diversify and not be greedy, so that if there's a dividend cut one day downstream, they won't be too disappointed, and if there is a dividend increase in the future they won't be too euphoric too.

Cheers!

Personally, I thought the LCTITAN article which I shared on 18 May to share, that I have accumulated LCTITAN at RM1 is a better article. Today, on 13 June, less than a month, the stock traded as high as RM1.39 before closing at RM1.33 should be a much better call. That's 33%-39% returns in less than 4 weeks. I highly doubt GENM will give anywhere close to that. My goal with GENM is a modest one - only 9% per annum returns - hardly deserving so many views.

I just posted an update on FPI here.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-13-story-h-159639979-FPI_Update

I like to think there's a majority chance a breakout will soon happen to the upside, but that's not my primary objective - my main goal is to own this stock for its high dividend yield, and if there's a price gain, that's a bonus.

Never be greedy. My position size here is around 3% capital. Not expecting to be wrong, but if it turns out that I'm wrong, then, no major drama - just collect the dividends, and wait for the next high probability setup.

Nice. New High again. My TENAGA average entry price is 9.11 (excluding dividends, and if include dividends is 7.61). At 14.14, that's a crazy 55%+ price gain! My original plan was to own it for its dividends. Lol. Thank-you TENAGA and Thank-you Mr Market!

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/06/12/hektar-reit-chief-exec-johari-resigns
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/715052

As a retailer, I can't predict this.
I believe market knew about this at least 1-2 weeks prior with the gap down after closing strongly at 72 sen.

Nevertheless, this shows why it is important to diversify, so that sudden news like this doesn't prevent our total portfolio from making new highs again.

Thanks to LCTITAN, today, my portfolio made new all time highs again, notwithstanding HEKTAR has been a drag since hitting a high of 72 sen 2 weeks ago. In fact, since 2 weeks ago, my portfolio made new all time highs 3 times, notwithstanding HEKTAR fell from 72 sen to 62 sen.

Nice. LCTITAN +13sen (+10.83%). Actually, today, my portfolio only have 15 greens and 25 reds. However, thanks to LCTITAN big move, my portfolio made new all time high again today! Thank-you LCTITAN and thank-you Mr Market!

PS. Technical analysts who draw trend lines know that there is a common observation that differentiates the strength of trend lines. Basically, there's this simple rule of thumb that says that if the trend line is drawn over a longer period vs a shorter period, then, the longer period trend line is stronger.

So, the bottom trend line spans nearly 28 years. This one must respect.
The top trend line spans a much shorter period. All things equal, it is weaker.

This is why instinctively, I say that when it comes to 2025-26, the bias is tilted towards upside, say 80/20 chance.
Now that I think about it, it's because the trend line patterns that I draw is a common one that I've seen before many times in the past.

Anyway, nobody knows the future, so, don't bet the farm. Just sharing some common TA observations.

I previously sold a significant portion when GENM was rising from 2.7 to 2.9.
Now as it falls back down to 2.5, I am queueing to buy back the portion of GENM sold previously.
Just a simple GTC order and let market decide.
I think it may fall below 2.5, hence, set a budget like 2%-2.5% capital, split into 2-3 parcels, enter the first order and then just wait.

My investment goal is a modest one - 6% dividend yield + 3% per annum price gain yield giving total returns of 9% per annum.

As GENM is highly liquid stock, I have no problem to share this idea upfront, as I suspect GENM is quite unpopular these days with its frustrating price action to many impatient investors.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-12-story-h-159700553-GENM_queue_to_buy_at_2_50

Jnlee, I already fully explained in this article and the link to past posts. Read them carefully.

PS2. I have a feeling I may be wrong about this idea and misinterpreted the charts. So, I have earlier placed a GTC sell order at 8.9. I hope, market takes me out at a small profit before this year end.

TUNEPRO is one of 14 of my speculative trading stock where the goal is price gains. My average entry price is 30 sen, so, sitting on 20% unrealized gains. However, it is an extremely small % of my stock portfolio relative to dividend income. This is to cure boredom.

@speakup, haha. I prefer to position my portfolio to make new all time highs, than be stubborn on any one stock. I temporarily forgot the declining EPS in BAT when I looked at the chart - in a period of temporary insanity, I bought 1000 shares at 8.5 before it went ex-div. Silly me. Later on the weekend, I realized I made a mistake, hence, the GTC sell order. Hope it triggers before this year end.

Meanwhile, this article explains my investing approach, my goals of investing and provide better context. Today, I was pleasantly surprised that my portfolio made new all time highs again. The size of increase is the largest since I started tracking 8 months ago. Total number of new all time highs is 44 times, averaging 5-6 times per month.

My advise to all is don't be stubborn or loyal to any stock. If we make a mistake, get out. Move on to other stocks. Position your portfolio to make new all time highs.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-11-story-h-159701327-Portfolio_All_Time_High_Profit_Watermark_June_Update

Today, RAPID has broken out above the 94 sen horizontal resistance, to close at RM1. Very nice. My paper loss has shrunk tremendously. At one point, the paper loss was huge, nearly 60% paper loss (1.63 average vs 65.5 sen bottom). After a patient 2nd average down to bring down my average cost to 1.06, at 1, the paper loss has shrunk to only 6%!

I didn't use a huge amount of capital for this 2nd average down, but wait patiently for the chart to show a 2nd high probability setup. This 2nd trade is strictly not an averaging down, but a 2nd trade on its own. It happens to be on the same stock. This is typical - a stock, over its wave down, will sometimes gives us more than 1 high probability setup.

The technically correct way to average down is to take each trade on its own merit. Then, it becomes more efficient to lower the Average Cost price, without consuming a lot of capital.

Nice. GTRONIC +6 sen (+4.14%). Thanks to GTRONIC, LCTITAN, RAPID, HUPSENG and 21 other green stocks offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today! Worth noting that today's gain over yesterday's new all time high then is the largest single day gain since I started manually tracking my all time highs since Oct 2023. Thank-you GTRONIC! Thank-you Mr Market!

Nice. TENAGA made new high since covid low.

Wow, RAPID added +10.5 sen in 1 day (11.73% increase). Thanks to RAPID, LCTITAN, HUPSENG and 22 other green stocks offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today. Worth noting that today's gain is the largest single day gain since I started tracking manually the porfolio gains since Oct 2023. What a wonderful feeling. Thank-you RAPID, thank-you Mr Market!

Wow, HUPSENG +21 sen (+20.79%) gain in 1 day! Thanks to HUPSENG, LCTITAN and 23 other green stocks offsetting reds today, my portfolio made new all time high again today. Worth mentioning that the increase in all time high today is the largest single day increase ever since I started tracking this manually since Oct 2023. What a wonderful feeling. Thank-you HUPSENG! Thank-you Mr Market!

LCTITAN + 5 sen. Nice. Thanks to LCTITAN and 24 other green stocks offsetting reds, my portfolio made a new all time high again today, notwitstanding KLCI dips slightly. In fact, since I started tracking manually since Oct 2023, today's gain is the highest ever gain from previous high. Thank-you LCTITAN and thank-you Mr Market!

Set sell all at 8.9 GTC limit order. Will stop watching this stock. Cheerio!

Hmmmn ... historically, BAT's quarterly dividend is always double digit sen, but last quarter DPS is 10.0 sen exactly. I wonder if we will see single digit DPS in 2024?

It might not happen in Q2 and Q3, as seasonally, that's BAT's strong EPS and DPS. However, Q4/2024 and Q1/2025 will be the worry.

I am looking for a spike to get out in the short term at a small profit.

Looking at Q1 EPS from 2015 to 2024, it has always been double digit sen. 2024 drop to 10.5 sen (from 85.2 sen back in 2015) is a bad sign, as Q1 has included Vuse and Vape products.

The critical case will be future quarters - will BAT quarterly EPS falls to single digit sen. IN particular, if Q1/2025 EPS is below 10 sen, that means Vuse and Vape strategy has not worked to give a turnaround.

In times like this, watch your Position Sizing. It is the NUMBER 1 rule - you can't afford to have a large position here and then hold for a long time, as EPS keeps falling and falling and falling with each yearly QR report.

Fwiw, I prefer to see my green positions like UOADEV, TAMBUN, LCTITAN (accumulated at RM1), RAPID, PPHB, HUPSENG and many other greens offsetting reds (such as BAT) to help make my portfolio to new all time highs again today. Looking at BAT doesn't give the same feeling.

@williamh, how large is 80 lots as % capital?

Sorry, still no signs of turnaround. Q1 EPS keeps declining every year, and with declining EPS comes declining price:

Year - Q1 EPS
2015 - 85.2 sen
2016 - 61.5 sen
2017 - 41.6 sen
2018 - 33.7 sen
2019 - 31 sen
2020 - 17.8 sen
2021 - 22.1 sen
2022 - 18.3 sen
2023 - 14.1 sen
2024 - 10.5 sen

I don't have a good feeling about my very small, short term, long trade position.

HUPSENG running nicely after frustrating shareholders with flat / declining share price since 2016. That's a long period of frustration. I believe this run can run quite far.

I won't chase, my entry is 67 sen. Didn't have a large position per my entry rules, but this is a nice position that together with other greens, helped my portfolio to make a new all time high again today. Thank-you HUPSENG and thank-you Mr Market!

UOADEV managements gets above average / superior rating from me for managing this company. Back in 2016 or so, this company has sizeable debts, both long term and short term borrowings. Over the years, it runs its business profitably and receives cash and it uses that to pare down both LT and ST borrowings to practically zero. The Net Cash has ballooned to RM1.8-RM1.9 billion after paying out the Special Dividends. It's business generates cash nicely and it shares with shareholders. What's not to like. Historically, 15 sen dividend is not a problem, last year with Special dividend was 30 sen but even at 15 sen per year, divided by RM2, is 7.5% dividend yield, so, what's not to like for this stock?

The business is resilient - COVID did not impact its business - it continued to generate cash.

This is one of my top 20% holdings. My average entry is 1.62 excluding dividends. With dividends, it has gone down. Haven't sold a single share yet.

UOADEV edges up again. Thanks to UOADEV, TAMBUN, LCTITAN and many other greens offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today. Thank-you Mr Market!

My entry price is 90 sen. Still holding on to this ridiculously under-valued stock. If this company breaks up, its Net Cash position is higher than market price i.e. getting the entire business for free. It was freakingly difficult to accumulate this extremely thinly traded counter at 90 sen, to be honest, I didn't get enough before price started to rise. But content to have it, and it's enough to help my entire portfolio to make new all time highs again today. Thank you Mr Market!

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-18-story-h-161579126-LCTITAN_Accumulated_at_RM1

My LCTITAN accumulation at RM1 blogged here is looking good. 12% gross returns in less than a month. The longer term target remains the same as blogged.

After I went in, price dipped even more below RM1 for a few days. However, I was waiting a bit too low and didn't manage to add.

Thanks to LCTITAN and 20 other green stocks offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today, notwithstanding KLCI dipped slightly. Thank-you LCTITAN and Mr Market!

After my post, SPTOTO posted a good Mar 2024 (Qtr3) results. TTM EPS improved, which bodes well for upcoming dividends. I think 10 sen is safe, i.e. another 2 sen dividend. At an average buy cost of 1.53, that equals 6.6% dividend yield on cost, which is nice, excluding future price gains. I think the bias is on the upside for future earnings, which will be nice for future dividend growth too. If we have caught the multi-decade bottom, there's nothing much more than we can do as we have bought ourselves a future annuity income stream (via dividends) that should keep growing over time, providing us with alternative passive income stream that is superior than FD or EPF.

On paper, it's clear to me, management quality is superior - rates B+ or A-. Family owned business, founders 3 brothers + 1 sister age 60-71 i.e. they won't be around forever. Succession already in place with son age 42 sitting in the board. Just remember, business is cyclical over years. Just remember - despite good management, this stock can crash down to as low as 12 sen during Covid pandemic lockdowns / recession. This is not a Buy and Hold stock, don't buy it for the dividends, don't own it for its Net Cash.

@SincereStock, nice trading.
Looking at this specific company for the first time. It's clearly a cyclical stock with most earnings from shipping and recently from shipbuilding. Have at least 2-3 really great years since 2021, able to turn around net debt to net cash, and started paying annual dividends twice. But cyclical also means eventually, shipping rates will turn down one day and the net cash will disappear and revert back to net debt if they don't manage well - we are talking over years. Worst fears during Covid pandemic, when it's Net Debt ballooned and share price dropped to a low 12 sen. Company has been buying back stocks up to 69.5 sen. unclear if company plans to buy back at 70 sen+ or not. I think releasing half at 76.5-77.5 sen looks right to reduce risk.
Longer term, no of vessels are reducing, so, the company doesn't think the good shipping rates will last longer than a few years and probably waiting for rates to eventually come down and then buy more vessels at the cycle low. This is normal shipping strategy to not chase but anticipate cycles.
I won't chase for sure. But it's in my radar screen for dips and cycle lows in the future coming years.

Hahaha ... apa apa macam ada in this business.

I was around when it hit RM74 peak and long before that.

When it first fell below 50 to a low of 40+, people said it was cheap and so, when it went back up briefly to 56 it validated the "average downers".

But that was the last time it stayed above 50. After that, it keeps making lower highs and lower lows. Those who previously averaged down and validated, now find their average down strategies hurting them even more.

Market likes to zig zag, to fool a lot of the "average downers".

Investing doesn't have to be difficult. Just pick a good quality fundamental stock that is trading upwards for the past 20 years or so. Wait until it drops to buying zone and then do nothing. Better if it pays dividends too.

PS. In case one wonders how big a position size, I recently added PBBANK at 4.06 at a much larger position, than the current BAT trading position here. This is because over the next 5, 10, 20 years, my conviction on PBBANK at 4.06 is much higher than BAT. My position size reflects my conviction.