Astro posted a 1QFY21 headline net profit of RM73.8m, down 57% YoY, mainly dragged by lower subscription and advertising revenue as well as higher finance cost and provision for doubtful debts. After adjusting for the unrealized forex loss of RM33m, The group’s 1QFY21 core net profit came in at RM107m. Results were below expectations, accounting for c.17% of full-year estimates. Following this set of results, we cut our earnings estimates by 12%-16% for FY21F-FY23F to account for lackluster adex and lower subscribers in light of the fragile underlying market conditions where consumer spending is expecting to be weak moving forward. Therefore, our DCF-based TP is revised downwards to RM1.55 (previously RM1.80). We maintain our Outperform call on Astro as the stock’s valuation looks undemanding given that Astro is currently trading at 10x forward PER, which is near -2SD of its 5-year average mean (figure 1). On a side note, Astro declared a first interim dividend of 1 sen.

• 1QFY21 revenue declined by 14.7% YoY mainly due to lower contribution from both TV and Radio segment. Pay TV ARPU declined from RM100.4 to RM99.1. TV segment revenue fell by 15.7% YoY as the group recorded lower subscription and advertising revenue. Meanwhile, Radio segment revenue dropped by 37.5% YoY due to lower client advertising expenditure. Home-shopping segment revenue grew by 14.1%, leveraging on the higher viewership recorded during MCO which saw the segment increasing its reach to 2.4m customers.

• Weaker core earnings. 1QFY21 core net profit fell by 42% YoY due to higher finance cost. EBITDA margin decreased by 4.5% to 31% due to higher operating expenses as a percentage of revenue (content cost, merchandise cost and staff cost) incurred in both TV and Radio segment. On a more positive note, Home-shopping segment turned EBITDA positive on the back of higher sales volume recorded due to higher viewership and festive spending.

• Future outlook. The unprecedented impact brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in an exceptionally weak 1Q. However, we are of the view that earnings could see gradual recovery for the coming quarters as the economy reopens following a period of lockdown. Also, we expect a stronger 2H due to seasonality. We continue to favour the group for its rapid response in adapting to the new normal, on-going cost optimisation efforts and its ability to seize opportunities to create new revenue streams in its home-shopping, broadband, OTT and digital platforms.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 19 Jun 2020