Daily new confirmed cases around the world continue to rise, topping 150,000 per day on average over the past week. Several US states are experiencing a rapid increase in cases notably Arizona, Florida and Texas. Talk of a second wave while is premature, the world is experiencing a new ripple from the first one for sure. Despite the worrying trend, investors see limited political appetite for a return to lockdowns.

Good news is that more than 1,500 treatment studies are underway world-wide. A University of Oxford drug trial found that a low-cost steroid (Dexamethasone) can substantially reduce deaths in severely ill patients. As results from more studies roll in this summer, improved treatments could blunt the impact of any second wave. According to said Oxford epidemiologist Martin Landray, for less than £50 (US$63), you can treat eight patients and save one life. Dexamethasone is the first drug shown in a large clinical trial to significantly reduce Covid-related deaths among the severely ill. Another trial last month found that Gilead’s antiviral drug Remdesivir reduced the duration of hospitalization on average to 11 days from 15 days but did not reduce deaths.

With regard to vaccine, the race is set to kick up a notch from next month as three candidates — the ones developed by Moderna Inc, China’s Sinovac Biotech and UK’s Oxford-AstraZeneca — are set to enter latestage trials. According to the World Health  Organization’s latest count, 13 experimental vaccines are being tested in humans and more than 120 others are in earlier stages of development even as the infections near nine million. China has six candidates undergoing human trials, the maximum. If all goes well, we may have a vaccine for emergency use by November 2020.

Another interesting development is gene therapy that could put an end to future pandemics. It is one that hasn’t won much attention but which in the future could become the fastest way to beat back a pandemic. It involves isolating genetic material from survivors and injecting it directly into others, lending them protection against the pathogen. Genes injected into the human’s arm or leg theoretically could convert the recipient’s muscle cells into factories to make antibodies against the virus, not only could provide temporary immunity but also to lessen the severity of the disease for those already infected.

What is really worth-noting is that this approach could offer a way to skip the complex and costly manufacturing of delicate antibodies and avoid the uncertainties involved in vaccines. Scientists indicate that gene injections can be used to carry information for more than one antibody at a time, which could stop a virus from developing resistance. Speed and low production costs are key motivation and DNA is manufactured in bacteria can double in number every 30 minutes. According to David Weiner, director of the vaccine and immunotherapy centre at the Wistar Institute, the genetic injections might also be an inexpensive way to deliver antibody drugs for cancer and arthritis. In short, I think that DNA-encoded antibodies are a
sure thing for the next pandemic, if not this one.

Chee Seng, Wong
CIO, Athena Advisors
wong-chee-seng@outlook.com