Excel – http://1drv.ms/1CoLHbp
My View:-
- Fair values/Market Timing:
– 5Y DCF:
– 6.7 – 7.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty is HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.556) – Fair value 8.75 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.556) – Fair value 8.75 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.579) – Fair value 9.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.63) – Fair value 9.92 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (9.48): 0.602
– Both models indicate either overvalued or fully valued. Also, the uncertainty of fair values are high.
- The share price driver will be the potential spin off exercise within SIME business divisions which should allow SIME valuation to be rerated higher as it should emerge as pure planter. As it is, it has been reported by media quoting Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh specifying that the listing of its motor unit is set to be executed in 1HCY15 subject to market conditions.
- I will continue to hold SIME.
Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (29 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1726089
At the time of writing, I owned shares of SIME.
ykloh
When the new SD was created a few years, there were indications that the non plantation businesses would be divested or listed separately. This process has off and on been talked about but nothing concrete has happened. SD has too many businesses and it does not appear that it is capable to manage them adequately, and what happened to the oil & gas business is an example. There is a lot of value hidden in the non plantation businesses and the earlier SD is re-organised the better it is for all the stakeholders.
2014-09-04 21:33