Leading global terror movement or ruling Afghans?

Tan KW

Publish date: Sat, 28 Aug 2021, 07:45 PM

Experts say much of Taliban’s success depends on the route the group opts for, but they see limited impact of Taliban takeover on the terror groups in the South and South-East Asia.

AGAINST all odds, the Taliban need to prove their credentials as Afghan nationalists and shun the global terror movement, along with delivering promises to the international community, if they want to be successful in governing Afghanistan, a panel of experts said Thursday.

Dismissing the fear of terror attacks in the South and South-East Asia region as overblown, they, however, said that Taliban’s victory over superpowers would provide a moral boost for such groups. Still, they added, it’s too early to predict the regional and global implications of the changes in Afghanistan.

The speakers were speaking at a webinar titled “Afghanistan’s Taliban: Impacts on South and South-East Asia” co-hosted by Dawn (Pakistan), The Daily Star (Bangladesh) and Jakarta Post (Indonesia) on Aug 26. They are members of the Asia News Network, an alliance of 23 news organisations across 20 Asian countries.

“The Taliban need to decide who they are. Are they Afghan nationalists or, in some shape or form, ‘international militants’?” asked Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based security consultant and analyst with IHS-Jane's, adding that they might need months, even years, not weeks, to answer this fundamental question.

Since seizing Kabul, the Taliban have presented a more moderate face, saying they want peace, will not take revenge against old enemies, and will respect the rights of women within the framework of Islamic law. They have also pledged not to allow any groups to use Afghanistan to launch terror attacks at any country.

Davis said the Taliban is caught between their two most influential allies: Pakistan and al-Qaeda.

Since their emergence in the early 1990’s, he said, Pakistan has been aiding the Taliban and continued to support them to power in 1996. But then, due to Taliban’s association with Osama bin Laden and with the 9/11 terror attack in the United States, the whole Pakistani military enterprise was “torpedoed, it blew up on their faces”. A quick offensive by US and its allies then pushed the Taliban out of power in late 2001.

As now the Taliban are in power again, Pakistan with the bitter experience they had, is now clear about what it wants, he opined.

“Pakistan will want a stable government in Kabul which is sympathetic to their cause and is also nationalistic,” Anthony said. They clearly don’t want Afghanistan to become a hub for terrorist activities.

Terror threat?

On the other hand, in the last 20 years, the Taliban have deepened their association with various groups, especially al-Qaeda, he said.

Besides, said Davis, they have association with nationalist Islamist groups like the TTP in Pakistan, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM).

He said al-Qaeda fighters are still operating with the Taliban and it will be extremely hard for them to decide as the group has diverse vines running within them regarding the issue.

There are factions of Taliban who definitely want stability and prosperity for the country after winning the war, he added.

However, other important players like Sirajuddin Haqqani, the chief of powerful Haqqani Network and the defacto number two in the Taliban ranks, wouldn’t want to throw the al-Qaeda under the bus, Anthony said, adding that they have bonded closely over the years through blood and family bonds.

He said the Taliban leadership now has to answer the important question: Should they close down the more radical chapter of the movement, or continue with it despite the international threats and pressure?

However, Zahid Hussain, a prominent expert on regional security and terrorism issues based in Islamabad, argued that though the Taliban might have a limited contact with al-Qaeda, they were no longer involved in any global terror movements.

He said the antagonism between the Taliban and the Islamic State is proof of that. He also claimed that the al-Qaeda elements are not so active in Afghanistan as many people think.

“Will the West engage with the Taliban if they were directly linked with al-Qaeda or any global terror groups?” he asked, referring to the 18-month-long talks with US in Doha that paved the way for US troops’ withdrawal.

The Doha agreement, which was supported by China, Russia and Pakistan and unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council, was only possible because the Taliban had committed to not allowing Afghanistan to be used by any terrorist groups, Hussain said.

He also pointed to the fact that even before the final offensive, the Taliban had already established “tactical alliances” with neighbouring powers like Iran, Russia and China to a common purpose: that is to curb the influence of IS and other global terror groups.

“The other factor is the Taliban leadership now is much different than the 1990’s. These leaders regularly meet with foreign leaders, negotiate with them and they now know they can’t work like they used to,” he added.

Moreover, he said, the situation is completely different than the 1990’s chaos. In fact, groups like al-Qaeda were able to grow inside Afghanistan because of the post-Soviet war civil war.

“One of the concerns of international community is that if the Taliban fail and another civil war starts in Afghanistan, that will be much more conducive for global terror movements,” he said.

He also refuted the idea that Taliban would be hostile to countries like India and stick to Pakistan.

“They will not and cannot,” the veteran columnist at Dawn said, noting that the Taliban’s main challenge now is to govern the country.

It was much easier to take over the country as the Kabul government collapsed. But to govern it would be far more challenging given that the country is mired by ethnic and all other kinds of conflicts, he added.

“Moreover, the previous government was completely dependent, almost 90%, on US or foreign aid to run the day-to-day government. The Taliban cannot afford to antagonise any country if they want to run the country,” he argued.

Geopolitical threat?

The Western nations have made clear what they want from them through deals and the UNSC resolution. So they have to fulfill the commitments they have made with the international community regarding an inclusive government, human rights, women rights and other issues.

“For economic and other reasons, Taliban cannot afford isolation like the 1990’s,” he said.

But to implement those, the Taliban will face a major problem with local leadership and fighters because of their ultra-conservative mindset derived from the traditional tribal societal framework, he noted. That will be a bigger challenge within Taliban, he added.

Mahfuz Anam, Editor-in-Chief of The Daily Star, said the Taliban should get some breathing space now to prove their intent.

He said the delay in forming a government can be seen as a sign of internal discussions to form an “inclusive government”, keeping in mind the volatile ethnic divide of the country.

“Nobody likes defeat, let alone a superpower,” he said, pointing to the US.

Anam urged caution against exploiting the fissure and differences within the Taliban ranks.

“If the United States, due to its ‘ego’, decides to make the Taliban look bad - project them as a medieval force and criticise them, attack them and create fault lines within them at every step - that might create a problem,” said Anam.

He fears that, despite the argument put forward by Zahid,Pakistan might use the opportunity reignite the Kashmir issue.

He hopes that all powers, including Russia and China, would look closely at how the Taliban would react to the options available to them and take actions accordingly.

“If the Taliban take the nationalist route, everybody should cooperate. If they take the route of the international terror groups, then all of us need to take our own precautions,” he suggested.

He said Bangladesh is concerned because the country has a latent extremist tendency. But thanks to the actions of the current government, since the 2016 Dhaka terror attack, the situation has been under control, he added.

But the ideological impact of the victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan can’t be ignored, he said.

Their victory against a coalition of superpowers without backing, which they had during their victory against the Soviets, and without airpower and modern warfare means, delivers a strong message to groups across the world, he said.

Noor Huda Ismail, visiting Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Singapore, and founder of the Institute of International Peace Building in Indonesia, agreed.

He said, apart from the exploitation from outside, if the Taliban fail to rein in different pockets of resistance by different warlords, those forces might create or escalate the fault lines within the group.

Self-motivated radicals still possess the more serious threat to terror attacks than organised groups, he said.

Davis said, though New Delhi might be looking at developments very closely, the impact of the power change in Kabul is unlikely to have any major impact on India.

He said despite a huge Muslim population, international terror groups have failed miserably to inspire them. He noted that the few major terror attacks in India were all aided, staged and managed by Pakistani military establishments to destabilise the state.

However, he noted, some Pakistani extremist groups have gained a foothold in Afghanistan, and he predicted that Pakistan will like these groups to remain dormant there till the dust settles down.

He also played down any militancy threat to China, saying that Beijing would need to worry more about Syria than Afghanistan.

Former Thai lawmaker and ambassador Kobsak Chutikul feared that after the debacle in Afghanistan, the US might refocus in South Asia again after decades to regain its lost honour, potentially making this region the center of US-China rivalry.

He pointed out to the recent visits by US vice President Kamala Harris and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin to countries which have disputes with China over the resource- rich South China Sea.

He said, in the light of controversial US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, South Asia might have to reassess their allies and friends. With rise of China as the new super power next door, he feared countries in the region might have to make the difficult decision of choosing between the US and China.

He asked that if the Afghanistan situation had brought that choice closer.

- ANN

Discussions

Be the first to like this. Showing 2 of 2 comments

trum

Geopolitical threat? Omg

2021-08-28 19:55

Tobby

Tell me why during Trump era, we hardly hear about talibans or Isis! How come barely a year into Biden administration, things break out all over in Aghanistan! Same with US borders, totally out of control! Oh, did i mention how US dollar is now like toilet paper, printed like no tomorrow!

2021-08-28 20:03

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