KUALA LUMPUR: The extension of the Recovery Movement Control order is crucial to prevent another wave of Covid-19 infections that will cripple the economy further.

Economist Dr Hoo Ke Ping said it was expected to be a tough run for the economy until a vaccine was available, especially for sectors such as tourism and retail, but Malaysia must stay the course or end up like countries that ended lockdowns or eased restrictions too fast.

"It's bleak. Structured unemployment for one is here to stay, which is expected to increase to 5.5 per cent or more than 860,000 this year.

"Tourism (sector), which contributed RM85 billion to the economy last year, has been decimated more than 60 per cent by the pandemic, and more than 50 per cent of (the) retail sector's RM400 billion contribution to the gross domestic product has been slashed by Covid-19.

"And while there are no tourists coming in and shopping malls are relatively empty with many outlets shuttered or going bust, we can't open our borders or relax restrictions just yet, as the risks are far greater."

He drew on Australia, Japan, Israel, Lebanon, Hong Kong and South Korea, which had seen a second wave of infection weeks after they had flattened their curves and reopened their economies.

And in some countries that had brought the number of cases down, notably in Europe, the reopening of borders, bars and nightclubs was now being blamed for a conspicuous increase in cases.

"We have to brace ourselves for at least six months until the first quarter of next year, when vaccines may be in circulation.

"I expect borders to be reopened slowly from then. Bear in mind that it takes six months for us to get our supplies and another two years for all Malaysians to be inoculated. So everything is a toss."

Hoo, however, said that it was not all doom and gloom, as certain sectors were doing well.

They included manufacturing, shipping, logistics, e-commerce, the gig-economy and export of steel, palm oil trade, rubber gloves and masks, and well as the international trade of goods manufactured in Malaysia.

"This is why Malaysia is prudent in extending the RMCO restrictions and keeping the borders closed," he said, referring to the government's decision to push back the recovery period to Dec 31.

Hoo also said while tourism and related businesses, including retail, were badly hit with more than 50 per cent of them closing down, bars had clung to survival by converting themselves into gastronomic bars.

But karaoke lounges and dance floors were still banned under RMCO.

Epidemiologist Datuk Dr Awang Bulgiba Awang Mahmud also said that there was no choice in the matter of extending the RMCO.

"The pandemic is far from over and ending the RMCO means opening up borders, which has to be done very carefully."

"The RMCO means we are still applying Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases Act 1988 (Act 342) and its (Measures within Infected Local Areas) Regulations 2020 and the Police Act 1967 (Act 344).

"So we can still restrict international travel and enforce SOPs, which have to do with Covid-19.

"Otherwise, on what basis can we keep borders closed and enforce Covid-19 SOPs?"

Dr Awang Bulgiba described the RMCO as a "mid-path" to recovery, as some form of restrictions under the Movement Control Order (MCO) were still in effect, although most sectors and industries were allowed to reopen.

"This (mid-path) is likely to go on for some time, until we have an effective vaccine or treatment.

"At the moment, we do not have too many options on the table."

He said that moving ahead, Malaysia needed to extend the RMCO until other countries in the region and around the world managed to keep the virus under control.

While travel bubbles with countries that had managed the pandemic well could be considered in the future, he said vaccine development was an area that required the government's dedicated action.

"Work on our own vaccine and work towards getting an assured supply of a viable and effective vaccine.

"Vaccine diplomacy may also be needed here," he said, referring the subject as having a certain "geopolitical nature".

"We also have to work on an effective real-time surveillance system for Covid-19."

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/08/620637/longer-rmco-will-prevent-new-wave