1.  Those who went in early at the IPO, around RM1.25 per share.

2.  Today it is 81 sen, or about 35% or 44 sen dropped from its IPO price.  

3.  For it to go back to 125 sen, the upside is about 54%.

4.  Well, MIDF analyst think it should worth 96 sen, based on its project forecast or 18.5% upside.

5.  2006 and 2007, there are about 5 books written by experts about PEAK OIL.  Today, some article I read they found oil in Dakota, which is more than what the Middle East produce (unverified source).  Oil price went up from USD30 per barrel to USD147 per barrel and fall back to USD45 per barrel in 5 months 2008-2009, rebounded to about USD100 per barrel for the next 7-8 years.  Nobody actually know for sure there is peak oil.  Since, LIBOR can be rigged, Gold price can be rigged, I am not suprise that oil price is rigged.  So, it would be pointless to explain the fundamental side of oil price.   Logic says that before 2008 crisis, world GDP grow at faster rate than post 2008.  US GDP post 2008 is about 2.5% p.a.  China has slowed to about 7.5% p.a.  Why price stays above USD100 per barrel?  

6. The business logic for AAX is, when your main competitor is not doing well, you should do well right?

7. Is AAX management better than MAS?  

8. Did the management lie about the losses for AAX was due to start up cost?  Once you lie, no one will believe the management

9. Oil price (up or down), a trillion dollar question.

Conclusion

For me, probability of AAX going up more than 50% than going down, mainly due to weakness in competitor, strength in management, biz turnaround after high start up cost and oil price may go down, AAX will become a hedging of oil price drop.  So, no need to short oil, just buy AAX.

20 August 2014

AAX dropped to 77sen when the result came up with higher losses.  Of course, management said is short term pain long term gain strategy.  Well, lets see first if their strategy works in the next few quarters.