Maybe zen and sslee should just put their life savings into companies like liihen, which is trading at a pe of 5.6. I'm sure the dividend and their capital will have been very well placed the last 3 years investing in liihen...

You do know that their business is not just family mart right? Did you hear about the huge new expansion into Vietnam and Indonesia where they spent capex to double production? It should be completed by the end of the year and earnings to be reflected in 2021...

FYI for this who don't know, the pe has been too high since 2016.

QL is now a 15 billion company with long term performance that can see huge runway moving forward so they are spending every cent in growing the business. The business is stable enough that they can afford to pay huge growing dividends every year as well.

I find it funny how everyone keeps commenting on the pe, even though the revenues have been growing like crazy in a very tightly competitive environment. It's like finding a tiny 5 foot guy who can jump like Michael Jordan and beating all the other giants.

But everyone keeps looking at his stature to define his capability, instead of looking at the market dominance, and the capability of QL.

The only rebuttal I have is this: how has your own low PE stocks performed over the past few years?

Keeping here for my own record. Interesting investment concept. If a crisis happens, all bets are off and price to earnings ratio becomes fungible daily concept. If a cruise ship arrives for the weekend, we should buy everything that deals with the tourists.

>>>>

Posted by OTB > Jun 30, 2020 10:23 PM | Report Abuse

Ans :
All readers in this forum will believe you 100% if the PAT of Supermx is 388 million or 428 million in Q4 2020 results.

If PAT is 388 million,
FY 2021, PAT should be at least RM 1.552 billion.
EPS = 1552/1360 = 1.14
PER = 15, the target price = 17.10
PER = 20, the target price = 22.80
Any of aforesaid PER, we are laughing all the way to the bank.

If Covid-19 lasts for 3 years, please read the below link.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2020-06-29-story-h15...

Most brokers in town use PER = 26, the target price = 29.64.

I feel shy to calculate if PAT is 428 million.

Thank you.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Jun 30, 2020 10:16 PM | Report Abuse

OTB, you really think Supermax can be a 50 billion company valuation and be bigger than PCHEM and public Bank? How many years of covid-19 are you expecting for it to get 1.5 billion in earnings every year?
------------------
Ans :
I do not need to think. I do not bother Supermx is bigger or smaller than Pchem or PBbank.
I have my strategy ready "how to deal with this Miss Universe stock".
All data is ready in my head, I need to know what is PAT for Q4 2020 only.
Presently, I am already sitting on the gold mine. Left hand is gold bar and right hand is also gold bar. The difference is only the weight.
Thank you.

OTB, you really think Supermax can be a 50 billion company valuation and be bigger than PCHEM and public Bank? How many years of covid-19 are you expecting for it to get 1.5 billion in earnings every year?

>>>>>>>>>

Most brokers in town use PER = 26, the target price = 29.64.

I feel shy to calculate if PAT is 428 million.
Thank you.
30/06/2020 10:11 PM

This is not how you do comparative growth analysis. It would be difficult if not impossible to look at long term growth prospects by just mixing in parts like this to look at the quality of business.

You have been trying to bring down QL stocks since January 2019 with your condescending comments on my sharing of this investment and my experience on this stock and every chance you get you try to promote INSAS while trying to bring down QL.

Now it would be useful if in 2 years you are right and INSAS really rewards it's shareholders and QL overpriced and overvalued stock tanks.

However even after 1.5 years of your comments, the truth remains: your history in investing in INSAS is dead wrong, and my long term returns in QL has given me wonderful earnings.

Now, you can say whatever you want and comment all you like.

The fact remains:

You are wrong and know nothing about INSAS nor QL future prospects.

So why do you still seek to try to comment so much on QL as if you know anything about it? You are no different from those investment bankers promoting their TP and analysis with nothing to lose by being wrong.

I think you are better off just avoiding investments and talking about it and sticking to something which will not hurt you financially, like talking about politics and religion.

You seem more cut out for it anyway. In fact, you are far too stubborn and inflexible to learn from your own investing mistakes, as you seem to love repeating it over and over. I think you are better off putting your money in an index fund for sp500 or China A500 where you don't have to think about businesses so much. To invest in the market is to understand the business and the long term prospects of the business. You seem to be happy to just look at the very tip of the iceberg to define your investment criteria. Not only is this dangerous to your own financial health, you promote INSAS during investment talks and share your thought on blogs with new investors in the market, influencing them to also follow you in making bad business decisions.

There is a fine line between ego and confidence. Confidence is when someone is right, ego is when he is wrong but he still thinks he is right. How many more years need to pass by as investors make millions from investments like topglove, yinson, QL etc when the eventual consolidation comes and you can say AHA! I told you I was right, QL drop therefore it is BAD!

So I will just keep quiet and let you continue using your methodology to buy stocks, hope that you make money successfully. Hopefully you will avoid buying things that I am buying and letting me grow my position over time.

No I don't think so. I think those QL shareholders have all been turned into millionaires and billionaires due to the excellent growth of the company.

It's already been 2 years. I hope you can stop just talking like you know what value investing is, and show some results from your value investing into your own wonderful stocks.

Until you do, all your comments about QL sound like sour grapes from someone who isn't even a shareholder.

If you can show better results in the past 2 years with any of your own investments I would love to hear them and your thinking in investing in them.

Until then, you only sound like a bitter amateur who is unable to show good results of his own so goes around commenting about other stocks which he has no experience or understanding with.

I expected better from a UM graduate.

Sure thing sslee. Whatever makes you happy. Been chasing high for 2 years now right? Overvalued pe50 from 6.7 until now 9.8...

I think you should stop buying based on investment banker and kyy recommendations.

I don't think your investment strategy based on "cigar butt value" investing is bringing you much joy.

From 2016 until today 2020.... How has your investment results been?

Take my word for it: QL is an excellent business. You just don't know how to value it. I won't even bother to explain why, as you have a confirmation bias already built into your kind that INSAS is a wonderful investment and QL is a horrible investment, despite all the evidence to the contrary.

Then may I ask a simple question?

Can you explain why from 2017- 2020 the share price of QL had been on such a swift rise?

No, people chase high because QL is a very very STABLE stock with low volatility in earnings, consistent growth of revenue and earnings over time, and huge capability to grow earnings without going hat in hand to shareholders and asking for share placements, warrants, private placements etc. It is not prone to technology disruption, the competitive imbalance just grows over time over competitors like CCK, layhong, teoseng and LHI. Most individuals do not display a capacity of investing in wonderful companies because they are full of fear and believe things to be "overvalued". Guess what, many people have also missed the growth and earnings of Berkshire hathaway over time.

Why is Topglove up so 400% over 1 year? Why is QL up 37% from jan 2019? Why is Yinson up 50% from Jan 2019? Those are questions which you must ask yourself carefully over this period as stocks in insas, tunepro, bjland, jaks etc all tank...

Covid and crisis resistant stocks will never sell at a discount.

>>>>>>>>>

So people chase High because of Bonus share issuance?

Insas report loss quarter because of unrealized AUD exchange losses and fair value changes of financial assets at fair value through profit or loss (quoted securities)

But QL report profitable quarter with some hidden accounting reporting in small print Foreign currency translation differences for foreign operations: RM (64,447,000)

Personally i happen to agree with Morgan Freeman. The day we stop thinking of myself as a Chinese man or a Malay man or Indian man and start thinking of myself as Malaysian is the day Malaysia moves forward.

We can celebrate ethnicity without pushing racism as a means of controlling population and gaining favors.

Even today we teach our kids about racism, about how some children with 7A can get full scholarship to study medicine while others with 15As can't get scholarship for medicine because of the color of their skin. Or how some individuals get huge benefits like asb and 5% housing discount over others and how some land can only be bought by bumi. Funnily enough, the very fact that this racism happen has caused the land value of bumi lot to drop as it is not accessable to everyone.

Let's stop talking about it, let's stop teaching our children about racism. Let's just concentrate on looking at people as Mr yusoff and Mr Chin instead of this white guy and that Chinese guy. Once we stop segregating individuals and choosing our friends based on skin color we will have a better future.

I guarantee it.

So let us forget about Malays and colonialism and Malaysian Chinese and making that divide larger. Let us teach our kids to respect Malays as Malaysians and I believe they will do the same. This deep seated racism is being fanned out in public to no good end.

Sslee, please stick to stock investment. This is a stock investment website. Stop fanning racism and political comments here and STICK TO STOCK INVESTING. Probably your investing will get better then.

>>>>>>>>>

https://youtu.be/FRnTovm26I4

I don't know which is sadder, that stockraider will continue to invest in horrible business like INSAS, NETX, that are losing money for him? Or he will continue to miss out on wonderful ten bagger businesses like QL and topglove...

So losses in income? Oh no. I'm still enjoying my 4.5 send of dividends with huge increase in share price, and multiple splits thought the years. Profitability of business and excellent growth opportunities. Everyday say overvalued, but who is the one buying netx at 2 cent and 3 cent drop to 1 cent, and bought INSAS at 80 cent drop to 63 cent with reported losses. I'm sorry stockraider, you are still going to owe me bkt by the end of the year. Unfortunately knowing your character, you are going to continue bullshit and weasel your way out, so I don't want to waste my time entertaining you.

I find myself buying too many stocks lately, as the deals and heavy discounts keep coming up. This is probably the most fun and activity I have had in years, as things are getting cheaper and cheaper.

Added small positions in property counters uoa development 1.71 and paramount 0.91 so I can monitor longer term. The theme is property developer with high cash levels, low gearing and selling property around the 300+k range. I believe as time goes buy more cheap distressed landbank deals will turn up for investments possibilities. So I am starting a small position first to participate in this idea with the view of the longer term.

Hmm I think beating a dead horse for half a year is enough as we have already ascertained the quality of Calvin tan investments. I am no longer interested in learning his investing methods.

I am however interested in learning more about yours. What new or existing positions are you holding currently in stocks during covid-19 period?

Care to share?

Why invest in something unknown with no financial impact or traction versus investing in something concrete and signed with profit margins and earnings guaranteed by government? I don't understand that.

But we shall just sit back and monitor as time goes by.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jun 26, 2020 9:48 AM | Report Abuse

So please allow me to sell you this future growth prospect of INSAS story.

[KUALA LUMPUR (May 29): The Malaysia Automotive, Robotics and IoT Institute (MARii) has partnered with Sengenics Sdn Bhd to develop ‘ImmuSAFE™’, the world’s first qualitative and quantitative Covid-19 test kit for industrial applications.
MARii said it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Sengenics that includes the development and commercialisation of products, services and technology related to health management systems, as well as high-throughput diagnostics for communicable diseases in industrial and commercial settings.]

I WhatsApp Dato’ Wong,” Is the above JV business deal very promising for INSAS?

He reply, “Insas owns 17.4% equity interest in Sengenics and I sit on its board from day 1. Yet to get financial impact from this MOU but Sengenics business & patents are getting traction and we signed collaboration agreements with world top pharma companies who will do R&D on patents owned by Sengenics”

I think everyone is waiting for results to catch up. If you believe that lrt 3 earnings, hospital earnings and mrt2 earnings will come in, then it is good to hold it build up position. No point in scolding young bank analysts or their reasons for holding. We need to build our own estimates.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by SHQuah > Jun 26, 2020 8:51 AM | Report Abuse

Just don't understand, Gkent with a NTA net tangible Asset of 93.33 cents. Cash rich, land, building and equipment plus good will worth more than RM1.00. Why so many stupid bank analyst with shit brain come up with TP 50 cents ?. How do they qualified to be stocks analyst. Do you think the know how to read financial report and Balance sheet ? They only looking at revenue and profit.

As for gkent they have gone through 2 quarters of grueling covid-19 work stoppages without losing money. Moving forward will their results be worse or better? As their work progress has returned in May, I firmly believe the answer is yes.

How much earnings from sengenics per year and what is the revenue today as per latest quarter?

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jun 25, 2020 2:22 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Should I sell INSAS now and buy Gkent?
Or do you think Sengenics has potential to grow into INSAS cash cow even bigger than Inari?

If agree with you is a genius, if dont agree with you is a liar. Normal activities of speculators.

Yes this is how you use margin, to buy things when they are cheap and use cash to buy and hold for the long term. Those who only keep cash waiting for market crash will be paralyzed and unable to buy during downturn.




>>>>>>>>>


Sslee
3309 posts
Posted by Sslee > Jun 24, 2020 8:48 AM | Report Abuse

Good morning,
Will listen to Philip advice, " bought it at 50 cents and sold it at 67 cents to reduce risk."

Ql is not a trading stock. Never was, never has been. Those who profit are those who bought and hold over 1 year, 2 years and 3 years period. If you buy Berkshire Hathaway hoping to make money over 1 month to 3 months, then sorry it just doesn't work that way. For those who are patient and can keep over the long term, then it will be very profitable

Smart cimb analysts who just graduated, has 5 years of work experience, with a degree in engineering jumping into finance. I don't think he is even 30 years of age.

You put your money in the hands of children and trust them with your wealth?
Think about it, if they get it wrong they don't have to pay a single cent.

If you get it wrong, you lose a lot of money.


>>>>>>>>

https://www.linkedin.com/in/walter-aw-lik-hsin-4754a386/?originalSubdomain=my

Unless someone to live under a rock recently they should realize that covid-19 does have a material impact on the company. As business have returned to full operation in may, all I can say is future quarters will have a much better future prospects outlook. FYI, gkent is STILL profitable and has ample cash moving forward. They are rushing to catch up to existing orders for water meters, existing orders for hospital construction and existing orders for lrt3.

If gkent is still profitable in this quarter, it gives me great hope for the company moving forward. I am still holding on, and only reducing my margin which went up when I bought it at 50 cents and sold it at 67 cents to reduce risk.

I still have a good position in gkent. They are securing EoT due to covid for project extension, and I have a good belief in the future of GKENT from the current 2 quarters of results.

As usual:

2021 hospital handover
2022 mrt2 rail systems progress
2023 smart water meter production
2024 lrt3 project progress

The simple question: is there any cancellation or fundamental problems for these projects. Has the government cancelled the projects due to budget issues like prestariang ic project? Is everything still ongoing and moving forward?

For me the answer is still yes.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by SHQuah > Jun 23, 2020 8:05 PM | Report Abuse

Philip......any comments on Quarterly results ?

Hi bursamaster/investhor. Why create so many id?

Haha talk big now scared to put your money where your mouth is? Don't even care to match your own contributions that you write and say 4q earnings will be 350-700 millions? Now saying someone else did it? What happen? At Supermax rm9 you were wagging your tail you so loudly it will go to 12 la what la etc la. Now all you can do is insult and brag how much money you make? Too bad. Do you even know why the stocks drop so bad after such glowing earnings?


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by CharlesT > Jun 19, 2020 11:02 AM | Report Abuse

pity the old man lah cannot sleep for months

You very certain eh CharlesT? I have another orphanage needs donation, you want to bet another bak kut teh lunch for another orphanage? Since you already confirm trying to run from the mnrb Vs QL one with a lot of bs, how about this one? Since you can't afford 5k donation, how about a 500 donation?

3rd quarter profit is 70 million. So next 4th quarter is between 5x (350m) to 10x (700m).

So if 4q net profit is lower than 350 million you treat orphanage rm500 bkt lunch ok? Or just donate that. I will do the same. If more than 350 million I will donate to orphanage rm500. How about that? For charity put your money where your mouth is?

Dare you take the bet?


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by CharlesT > Jun 19, 2020 10:45 AM | Report Abuse

the game is simple...u will see 5x to 10x increase in their next 4q profit

how will mkt value the co then?

Sslee, my portfolio on i3 is still up and running and shared between friends and my telegram group. I find it is useful for people who are really interested in learning about investment instead of using it just to push their own agenda on how INSAS is a good investment instead. J believe the results 1.5 year results have been amply clear.

I will open my portfolio to public once every quarter for public viewing and to see my performance and have a proper discussion and sharing of info.

Until then, further discussions and viewing of my trackable portfolio can be done on my telegram discussion group that I set up to stop rudeness, name-calling and insults.

FYI it is free.

Sslee please don't bother to buy or comment on scib or kpower as they are a speculative long term bet in nature. All we can see is Karim fronting 10m personal loan to kpower and buying a lot of shares in scib and kpower both and giving them the edge in winning hydropower projects in Nepal and constructing high end villas in Abu Dhabi, both of which are beyond their connection list, ability and cash to win as well as the trust level. We can clearly see the trust here is given to Karim directly and scib and kpower as proxy.

I will not be writing any articles on these investments as they are too be monitored very very closely indeed and are margin fuelled investment for me.

My investment in gkent short term is already very profitable and I am reducing my margin and expanding margins into the other questionable investments that have a much higher level of risk but backed by a fair chance of long term returns.

Sslee, if you do not talk about your own buying and selling of stocks, why do you like to comment on others investments decisions?
Especially when you know I bought it at 0.43 and 0.52 and sold it for a very good profit ( on margin loan) at 0.66.

Can you stick to commenting your own investments good results instead?

Too bad insas has no share buybacks, no future guaranteed prospects, and poor long term results.

FYI, I still hold a substantial sum of GKENT.

Why do you like lousy companies so much? Is your hobby buying bad companies just to attend AGM to scold them? Does that do anything for your wealth creation?

If Warren buffet can buy tech companies and airlines, I pity those who keep sticking to limited and fixed performance metrics without looking at their investments and improving their investment strategy as time passes by.

I don't buy stocks just because people promote like insas sslee. I bought because of future prospects and latest meeting reports and discussions buy Serba dinamik and Karim.

Unlike INSAS, they have a clear plan and reason of investment, which I find compelling but waiting for further clarity.

I have found that clarity.

I don't invest for the past results like INSAS, I invest for future performance and results.

I think scib and kpower results have proven they are worth taking a second look at.

I consider scib,kpower and serbadk as investing in the future of Serbadk growth, so I will consider that as one stock. Reducing the margin exposure of GKENT.

I consider scib,kpower and serbadk as investing in the future of Serbadk growth.

Bought kpower on 16th@2.03, scib on 15th@2.07 and sold gkent@0.66 on 15th

Very good doing so much research! But how come you still can't get good results from INSAS?

So sad, cannot compete with QL, now want to compare with GKENT?

FYI, LRT3 progress completion and claim only at 24%. If you want to compare at least look at it after LRT3 completion when all the profit comes in.

Look at the wording, what is key upside risks? Why is upside a risk?

All their bearish calculations suddenly do not take LRT3 earnings contribution into the picture.

Why?

That is the equation that leaves wanting from the rhb TP.

But since you are now a trader instead of a long term INVESTOR, I dont think you will care about lrt3 contributions at all.

All the more for me.

No one is here to argue with kids. We just try to present factual points, and let kids learn from their mistake. One day you will learn the difference between gambling and investing, and hopefully you can rise up from it a better man.

Or not.

Every day a new sucker is born.

Yes, you are right. Just a few days ago CharlesT was happily walking around saying his third leg very big and ahlong ask happily borrowing money to him to speculate on supermax at 8+. Now that Supermax has dropped to 6+ you can see his attitude becoming more and more vicuous and crude. He starts spewing curse words and blaming saying I run down his stock. So now when the price goes up to 7.3 he starts to be a little bit happier. Let's hope this kid will not over leverage himself into a black hole that he cannot walk away from.

Move on Charlie. Move on...

Please don't overpay for supermax and borrow money to gamble on stocks. You will be missed if you disappear from i3 forum and not show up to pay for your bak kut teh lunch.

But I have a feeling you will start to do dishonest comments like stockraider to get yourself out of paying for bkt lunch.

Oh well...

Yes, that is current price. But you forgot, charles is saying that 4.18 mil is TOO cheap, he is thinking of paying 8-12 million for it.... (he thinks RM15.6 is cheap for topglove, it can speculate up to RM34...)

and if you look at historical mean growth of topglove, we know that the average growth is more around the 5%-8% mark, instead of the 12% mark for the next 5 years guided by management as more apartments start coming up in the market.

The questions to ask is:

1. How sure are you that you will get 12% a year increase when historically your growth rate for the gloves in the world is 5-8% historically? do you use the sudden growth or the long term growth

https://www.televisory.com/blogs/-/blogs/malaysian-rubber-glove-industry-an-upda-2

2. So if 4.18 million is a good deal? How about 6 million? How about 8 million? when does it end?

https://research.sginvestors.io/2020/05/top-glove-maybank-kim-eng-research-2020-05-29.html

This is how you should look at buying a stock, how much cash flow to get from it at the end.

So, you do the math, take highly optimistic prices? Or proper prices of value?

Let's do some basic math for little Charles who doesn't know how to value and pay for the things he buys.

This latest quarter with 2.57 billion shares outstanding, topglove paid out a 10 cent dividend. This came out to 257 million. their engorged profit for the quarter was 356 million.

The past 2 quarters came out to 111 million and 115 million. Assuming next quarter the earnings DOUBLE again it will come to 700 million, meaning they will do 1.2 billion in earnings. (highly unlikely, but you never know.) Even more unlikely is Topglove will continue to earn 700 million every quarter after that for the next 2 years (but anyway...)

we assume that for this financial year we will get 1.2 billion in profits. If we include the millions of shares being converted from the bond, you will get 2.7 billion shares outstanding. if we gave out 540 million in dividends (20 cent dividend) and keep the rest (30 cent earnings), this year topglove will earn 50 cent in earnings.

Charles is valuing TG at 24 ringgit (or was it 36). How many years of future earnings and profits is Charles already paying for to enjoy in the current boom? Sadly he doesn't know.

Lets put it in simple terms. Since poor charlie doesn't care about the long picture, for 2 years he is willing to buy a house that was selling at:

1,179,000 to get 37,500 rental a year, with 12% increase every year after.

now he is willing to pay for the same house during boom time when the tourists are in town

4,180,000 to get 137,500 rental a year for 1 year, and reduce to 48K a year with 12% increase every year after.

Sounds like a good deal?

Apparently not, as people are starting to do the accounting.


>>>>>>>>

Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ Topglove


At RM 15.56 per share, its market cap is RM 41.7 billion.

I project Topgloves' total earnings for this and next 3 quarters to be RM 1.4 billion.
16/06/2020 3:30 PM

His prediction is incredible. Somehow he always seems to buy stocks at the top and sell them at the bottom. Such a nice billionaire to help us poor folks.

Stuck in LAYHONG? Billionaire Herbert?

Can you provide context on this penny stock you are talking about?

>>>>>>>>

seawave Can anyone explain why would a company over splitting their shares to 3 billions and cause value to dilute and all shareholders and insider would be at great lost when they thrown down to 1 ct?

Thank you..
15/06/2020 5:23 PM

I am reducing my margin exposure, because I bought a lot on margin previously. I currently have another 7m on margin, almost all on GKENT. Balance all is fully capital.

>>>>>>>

hariharikais hi phillip, any reason for the recent cashout and sale of PCHEM?
15/06/2020 1:31 PM

I still hold more pchem than you will ever make in your life. I am simply reducing margin that I already make 30% from, and you can track my trade and see how I do over time.

Not like those who can simply make money every day in and out and in and out

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jun 15, 2020 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

Philip is another subtle pump & dump kaki...he says Pchem & QL so very good but he dump QL & Pchem loh...!!

I am reducing margin, but still 100% capital and 25% margin and fully bullish in stock market.

You can't go bankrupt if you don't owe any money.

How about you? How's your loan shark borrowings going on? Having fun?

Sold pchem 6.89, yinson 6.4 on 11/6/2020 to reduce margin exposure. Sold ql 9.39 to reduce margin exposure.

Please show me this post and the agreement?

ARE YOU TRYING TO LIE YOUR WAY OUT AS WELL?


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by CharlesT > Jun 14, 2020 9:51 AM | Report Abuse

If i m not mistaken initially its for one year..then philip realised he was losing then he changed to 2 years..

Raider n me being big heart gentlemen we agreed so...