Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-16 11:34 | Report Abuse

Padini

Retail

Very competitive business

Profitable

Dividends are sustainable

Company is very cash rich.

Growth comes from its Brand Outlets


Its price has gone down.


And that is wonderful, isn't it?

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-06-16 11:42 | Report Abuse

HLIND

Strong FCF generation

Cash cow

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-06-16 11:43 | Report Abuse

SAM

Growth stock albeit temporary headwinds, valuation are undemanding

Posted by stockraider > 2020-06-16 12:19 | Report Abuse

Just buy affin lah....!!

Wonderfully safe & pays 7% dividend loh....!

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 12:22 | Report Abuse

glove co only glove co for next 1 to 2 year...next 10 years too long to see

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-16 15:30 | Report Abuse

Topglove


At RM 15.56 per share, its market cap is RM 41.7 billion.

I project Topgloves' total earnings for this and next 3 quarters to be RM 1.4 billion.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-06-16 15:32 | Report Abuse

it implies forward PE of 30x.

such valuation sustainable?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Jun 16, 2020 3:30 PM | Report Abuse

Topglove


At RM 15.56 per share, its market cap is RM 41.7 billion.

I project Topgloves' total earnings for this and next 3 quarters to be RM 1.4 billion.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 15:33 | Report Abuse

whats its past years pe?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 15:33 | Report Abuse

go to find out...lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 15:43 | Report Abuse

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Jun 16, 2020 3:30 PM | Report Abuse

Topglove


At RM 15.56 per share, its market cap is RM 41.7 billion.

I project Topgloves' total earnings for this and next 3 quarters to be RM 1.4 billion.

do u read maybank inv's report? i think they predicted the profit to be much higher than RM1B+ in 2021 woh....

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-16 15:44 | Report Abuse

>>>>>

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > Jun 16, 2020 3:32 PM | Report Abuse

it implies forward PE of 30x.

such valuation sustainable?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Jun 16, 2020 3:30 PM | Report Abuse

Topglove


At RM 15.56 per share, its market cap is RM 41.7 billion.

I project Topgloves' total earnings for this and next 3 quarters to be RM 1.4 billion.

>>>>>>>




Fabien,

Your 2 stocks (HLI and Sam) are good selections. I have looked at these before, though I did not invest into. They have done well over the years.

The funny thing with investing in wonderful companies is these companies are usually not available at "low prices". Even at fair prices, they often trade at high valuation.

Another funny thing is those who are not in the stock, it is probably too late for them to be in after a recent rapid rise. There is a high probability that the enthusiastic romance with wonderful stock then has given it too high a valuation. The best time to own such a wonderful stock is when there is little focus on it or when it is subjected to some bad or unpalatable news which is temporary and does not affect the company's fundamentals permanently.

On the other hand, if you own such a wonderful company, your frame of thinking should be different from the one's who has not bought into the stock. I shall not elaborate further on this but you can work it out yourself.

Cheers.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 15:44 | Report Abuse

all the next few q results will be the same like last q (rm350m) ah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 15:46 | Report Abuse

sure ah? realistic or not?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 15:48 | Report Abuse

Do u know their q2 made Rm115m while Q3 made rm348m...

So Q4 n next few Q zero growth in profit ah?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-16 15:55 | Report Abuse

Let's do some basic math for little Charles who doesn't know how to value and pay for the things he buys.

This latest quarter with 2.57 billion shares outstanding, topglove paid out a 10 cent dividend. This came out to 257 million. their engorged profit for the quarter was 356 million.

The past 2 quarters came out to 111 million and 115 million. Assuming next quarter the earnings DOUBLE again it will come to 700 million, meaning they will do 1.2 billion in earnings. (highly unlikely, but you never know.) Even more unlikely is Topglove will continue to earn 700 million every quarter after that for the next 2 years (but anyway...)

we assume that for this financial year we will get 1.2 billion in profits. If we include the millions of shares being converted from the bond, you will get 2.7 billion shares outstanding. if we gave out 540 million in dividends (20 cent dividend) and keep the rest (30 cent earnings), this year topglove will earn 50 cent in earnings.

Charles is valuing TG at 24 ringgit (or was it 36). How many years of future earnings and profits is Charles already paying for to enjoy in the current boom? Sadly he doesn't know.

Lets put it in simple terms. Since poor charlie doesn't care about the long picture, for 2 years he is willing to buy a house that was selling at:

1,179,000 to get 37,500 rental a year, with 12% increase every year after.

now he is willing to pay for the same house during boom time when the tourists are in town

4,180,000 to get 137,500 rental a year for 1 year, and reduce to 48K a year with 12% increase every year after.

Sounds like a good deal?

Apparently not, as people are starting to do the accounting.


>>>>>>>>

Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ Topglove


At RM 15.56 per share, its market cap is RM 41.7 billion.

I project Topgloves' total earnings for this and next 3 quarters to be RM 1.4 billion.
16/06/2020 3:30 PM

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 16:00 | Report Abuse

I project Topgloves' total earnings for this and next 3 quarters to be RM 1.4 billion.
16/06/2020 3:30 PM

do u share his thought on his above projection as well?

yes or no only

lasy to read yr long essay

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-16 16:00 | Report Abuse

>>>>>
Posted by CharlesT > Jun 16, 2020 3:44 PM | Report Abuse

all the next few q results will be the same like last q (rm350m) ah?


CharlesT
9854 posts
Posted by CharlesT > Jun 16, 2020 3:46 PM | Report Abuse

sure ah? realistic or not?

>>>>>>>


CharlesT

Tan Sri Lim has guided that the next few quarters will be better than the latest quarter. Surely, you have to believe in him.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 16:00 | Report Abuse

rather than yrs for sure

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-16 16:11 | Report Abuse

Aeon Credit

Lending business

Has grown its business over the years.

High margins.

Credit risks, however, very well managed.

Since listing, this is the 2nd big fall in its price.

The fundamentals remain strong, though in a recession, poor performing loans may rise.

It is trading at single digit PE.

As a guide, as long as the lenders (banks and bond holders) are willing to lend to this company, we can be assured their business remains in good shape. Afterall, these lenders would have done all the due diligence better that you or I can.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-16 16:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 16:21 | Report Abuse

U hv a much bigger heart than Philip...

Posted by Diego2020 > 2020-06-16 16:29 | Report Abuse

@Philip at 4.180mil of a house with 48k rental annually at 12% interest increase every year?

thats actually a good deal considered of having 48/12 4k rental monthly

let me take 5 year(n)

1st $53760.00
2nd $60211.20
3rd $67436.64
4th $75528.93
5th $84592.40
total after 5 years with 12% fixed interest rate = $341,529.17 + 4.180mil = 4,521,529 million

if 12% is continuous interest rate then it would almost double the amount of the house at 7.7mil after 5 years

Posted by Dongibap > 2020-06-16 16:56 | Report Abuse

https://www.linkedin.com/company/bmc-medical-co-ltd/about/
https://www.facebook.com/beijingbmcmedical/

BMC is a leading medical device company for sleep-disordered breathing (SDB). Facebook page shows that their products have been in high demand during this pandemic period

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-16 17:24 | Report Abuse

Yes, that is current price. But you forgot, charles is saying that 4.18 mil is TOO cheap, he is thinking of paying 8-12 million for it.... (he thinks RM15.6 is cheap for topglove, it can speculate up to RM34...)

and if you look at historical mean growth of topglove, we know that the average growth is more around the 5%-8% mark, instead of the 12% mark for the next 5 years guided by management as more apartments start coming up in the market.

The questions to ask is:

1. How sure are you that you will get 12% a year increase when historically your growth rate for the gloves in the world is 5-8% historically? do you use the sudden growth or the long term growth

https://www.televisory.com/blogs/-/blogs/malaysian-rubber-glove-industry-an-upda-2

2. So if 4.18 million is a good deal? How about 6 million? How about 8 million? when does it end?

https://research.sginvestors.io/2020/05/top-glove-maybank-kim-eng-research-2020-05-29.html

This is how you should look at buying a stock, how much cash flow to get from it at the end.

So, you do the math, take highly optimistic prices? Or proper prices of value?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 17:38 | Report Abuse

U think i push up topglove price meh..

Aiyo mkt push up the prices..yr rm80m also cant push up topglove..

Aiyo really stupid old fool

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 17:39 | Report Abuse

I dont even hv 1 lot topglove...lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 17:40 | Report Abuse

U think its expensive so u sold all yr topglove at rm8+ loh..

U very smart long term value investor mah..lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 17:41 | Report Abuse

Can sleep well ytd night ah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 17:43 | Report Abuse

As long as u r happy with yr rm16m realised profit n forget abt yr opportunity loss of rm16m+ now lah...

Dont worry will be more later....

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 17:45 | Report Abuse

In Hakka we call it tai ling ngong...

Posted by air01557 > 2020-06-16 19:01 | Report Abuse

Philip made a wrong decision of selling all his shares in TGlove and cannot accept. Due to strong uptrend he should have sold perhaps half of his shares. Well now become sour grapes and trying to rundown the stock.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-16 19:23 | Report Abuse

Philip

You have made your decision. What others think is less important. It is your money afterall. There are too many hindsight geniuses around.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 20:03 | Report Abuse

Move on lah u did make good profit even u sold at rm8+..

Why wanna curse those who bought n kept topglove after u sold leh..

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 20:06 | Report Abuse

Just like 3iii if u wanna buy n keep nestle n dlady etc for 10 years or 200 years go ahead loh...

All must follow yr way meh..long term value investor...only u can make money fm stock mkt meh...

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-06-16 20:10 | Report Abuse

3iii

don't get me wrong, i am not prohibited by high PE from investing in any wonderful companies

what i'm trying to say is given the exceptional profit growth in the next 1-2 years, with mean reversion in mind, don't you think the forward PE as implied by current price is sustainable vis a vis its historical PE valuation.

i paid PE 38x to own Disney shares as i believe the future runway is still very long, i'm not too sure about TopGlove

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-16 20:22 | Report Abuse

Yes, you are right. Just a few days ago CharlesT was happily walking around saying his third leg very big and ahlong ask happily borrowing money to him to speculate on supermax at 8+. Now that Supermax has dropped to 6+ you can see his attitude becoming more and more vicuous and crude. He starts spewing curse words and blaming saying I run down his stock. So now when the price goes up to 7.3 he starts to be a little bit happier. Let's hope this kid will not over leverage himself into a black hole that he cannot walk away from.

Move on Charlie. Move on...

Please don't overpay for supermax and borrow money to gamble on stocks. You will be missed if you disappear from i3 forum and not show up to pay for your bak kut teh lunch.

But I have a feeling you will start to do dishonest comments like stockraider to get yourself out of paying for bkt lunch.

Oh well...

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 20:24 | Report Abuse

This is the best u can argue ah philip?? Lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 20:25 | Report Abuse

Philip ah philip...grow up not cute at all leh

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-16 20:28 | Report Abuse

No one is here to argue with kids. We just try to present factual points, and let kids learn from their mistake. One day you will learn the difference between gambling and investing, and hopefully you can rise up from it a better man.

Or not.

Every day a new sucker is born.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 20:28 | Report Abuse

When i ever spew curse words n blaming u?

If u cant prove so as per yr ealier lies u shall not sleep well for the next one year...lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 20:30 | Report Abuse

Busy creating 99 lies to cover first lie...what for leh...u not sien meh

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 20:33 | Report Abuse

Who is the idiot who claimed his wife owns 100m+ supermax at 0.90+?

Me ah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-16 20:40 | Report Abuse

I believe yr wife own 100m+ supermax just like u believe my 3 leg monster n ah long story...

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-18 09:39 | Report Abuse

>>>>>

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > Jun 16, 2020 8:10 PM | Report Abuse

3iii

don't get me wrong, i am not prohibited by high PE from investing in any wonderful companies

what i'm trying to say is given the exceptional profit growth in the next 1-2 years, with mean reversion in mind, don't you think the forward PE as implied by current price is sustainable vis a vis its historical PE valuation.

i paid PE 38x to own Disney shares as i believe the future runway is still very long, i'm not too sure about TopGlove

>>>>>>



Your point is well taken. You are right from your own perspective. Everyone has to manage risk.

Let me argue the case of the major shareholder. Tan Sri Lim holds a lot of shares in Topglove. Will he be selling his shares today? Nothing to prevent him from trading his own shares and he has done so in the past too. However, a big portion of his share will be permanently in his company. Why? In the long run, perhaps, a very long time, his company will be bigger and worth more then than today.

OTOH for you and many others, the perspective will be different. Your investment time horizon and your risk tolerance maybe different. Therefore, your action likewise.

Both Tan Sri (the major shareholder who is effectively buy and hold for the long term) and you are right. No one is more right than another, just do what you think is comfortable and safe for your own investing.

OTOH, everytime I have sold TG in the past, because it was overpriced, it has bounced back higher. Often I have to buy back at higher prices to ride up the stock again.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-18 09:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-18 09:45 | Report Abuse

.... and always for the long term (5 years and above).

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-18 09:46 | Report Abuse

When you have this philosophy, you love the market more when the prices drop further.

This will be unlike those wired the other way.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-06-18 10:49 | Report Abuse

When u overpay....there is no margin of safety mah...!!

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Jun 18, 2020 9:46 AM | Report Abuse

When you have this philosophy, you love the market more when the prices drop further.

This will be unlike those wired the other way.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-06-18 12:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2020-06-19 17:54 | Report Abuse

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2020/06/excellent-comment-on-margin-of-safety.html?m=0

Excellent video Buffett teaches on Margin of Safety