Lazycat, it's been years since I used margin. I think I still have about 5 million in approved margin from QL. I think it's around 1.25% if above 1 million with share collateral/fixed deposit

If I could give rookies just one advice.

Investing back in the older days without internet you had to call your remiser and trust him to put the shares purchase in for you.

Imagine now that you dont have a stock ticker. You don't have a financial report. And someone just went up the door to your house with a business proposal.

How do you go about it? You never ask how much it is worth? It's crazy asking someone how much they think it is worth selling for, is it a fair price etc.

You ask basic questions,
1. What are you selling
2. Who is buying
3. How do you make more to sell
4. Where can you find more buyers
5. How much are you selling your business to me
6. Why sell it to me
7. What problems do you find in the business
8. Who is your competitors
9. Who is the biggest competitor, what is he doing differently
10.Why are you better than your competitors

This is my 10 commandments to start the very beginning of every stock investing. Once you see satisfied with these answers.

Then you go to the fundamental analysis of financial reports etc.

Once you have decided to buy, then you go to the technical part of things.

All the sifus here, from stockraider to sslee, always seem to start the other way around.

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

Now I'm sure there are many ways to skin a cat, and I'm sure stockraider sifu has made many millions with his value cigar butt investing methods. But actual application of value investing in NYSE and Bursa is very different. No close monitoring if SC here. A few big sindicates preying on water fish here buying penny stocks.

Our retail investors here is just so raw and new, one article from kyy and Calvin tan, every rookie like sslee rushes in to buy big.

With half assed ideas on the real meaning of intrinsic value and margin of safety, they get burnt over and over.

I don't need to recommend you to buy any stock. The stocks that I hold are all market leaders, expensive and have run up so high.

But to the rookie: I'm sure no one has ever asked you to buy things like QL, topglov, public bank, yinson. Why? They are boring and expensive. High PE. Why bother watching paint dry?

You always get recommendation to buy penny stocks from raider and Calvin, low PE high cash, disappointing long term results.

Please understand why. The game in bursa is so cowboy it's sad.

I'm already mid late 50s. I have nothing left to prove.

If I can do anything, it would be to give some insight to be investors on how to do proper investing.

Raider,
This is called timing the market. How do you know at what price to buy and sell? If like this kind of investing, you always Chun Chun right timing buy low sell high? Never lose money? Buy any stock also Chun chun? If you always 100% Chun Chun number like Calvin tan sure win why even bother buy stocks? Just go and buy Toto 6/47 sure Chun Chun kena!

I don't know how to invest like this. I always buy high, can never get it right every time. But what I can do is find the right stock, and follow up. Every quarter I top up. After salary top up. After company bonus I top up. After dividend in I top up. After commission in I top up. I can top up from 200k to 2 million shares in 10 years in ONE stock is purely on understanding the business growth prospects. I buy at the end of every quarter report at a price I think is fair.

This is real investing. Not some made up magic chart mirror.

You can do meh? Buy 200k INSAS low, sell high. But 500k INSAS low sell high. Buy 1 million low sell high. Is that even a feasible method? Your balls made of platinum?

Come on lah,

I've tried it your way. It doesn't work. Kyy does it your way. Look where it went in the end.

I've been in the market for almost 20 years.

I no longer do stupid, especially when I'm never lucky.

>>>>>>Do not get the misconception that value investment cannot get goocomparable return like growth stock QL and scientex loh...!!

If u r a value investor who have bought insas in 2009 at rm 0.20 and sold it in 2014 for rm 1.20, u also can get a 6 bagger return over 5 yrs which is comparable to the return of ql or scientex mah...!!

In fact in 2014, if u look in the chart of insas it is like QL chart today mah....!!
So don be too happy...this QL current good performance could be similiar to insas good performance in 2014 loh...!!

As for raider of course did not benefit with a 6 bagger return on insas, but raider did benefit on 2.5 to 3.0 bagger return buying in 2012 at average of rm 0.42 and selling around rm 1.20...this is at least 2.5 baggers over period of 2 yrs mah...!!

Raider think can repeat a similiar feat on insas by buying rm 0.67 n perhaps selling at rm 1.34 loh...!!!

Hi lazycat, for pentamaster, I have just finished reading and compared with comps like vitrox, keyence, Teledyne and others.

I am very very worried. I may be in error, but I find the company very very weird. Here is what I think:

1. Why is a Malaysian company moving all of its assets and business into a investment holding company in the Cayman islands? And it is being audited by Grant Thornton, which I don't like at all. They used to use the big 4, now no longer
2. The business prospects are very impressive, even more than Vitrox, for a company that doesn't even have any tax breaks incentives.vitrox had a ten year free tax incentive from mida.
3. Why did they list also in Hong Kong share market? For what purpose this PIL?
4. For a company that does 400 million in equipment sales, I couldn't download or read a single datasheet or catalogue from it's main website. I couldn't even find a single product code number to compare with other products in the market.
5. It seems more a company interested in doing financial exercises than in growing shareholder wealth with good products.
6. Why are they doing project management for a development project?

I find this company to be very very weird. I may be wildly wrong. It may be a brilliant trailblazer.

Be very careful if you have real money invested in this company.

Dear sslee,

I have a feeling you might have followed kyy into his investment into JAKS and have been burnt thereafter.

But to be honest there is never anyone to blame but ourselves. We trusted the sifus based on word alone and lost money based on our preconceived notions of fairness.

Trust me, I know exactly how you feel. Teh soon seng was my kyy idol during my early days, and I was full of anger and upset feelings when I lost 120k in the stock market. In the 90s that was a huge sum.

But emotion is the only component in stock picking that is unnecessary.

There is always something to learn.

Even from qqq and kyy.

My advice?

Item 1 in my buku 555 back then
1. Never trust other people to choose your stocks for you. Always follow your own stock.

Penta master seems very interesting. Let me read through the annual reports and compare it with similar companies and I'll get back to you.

I can't comment much on chinwel, it feels like your usual pump and dump stock to me. Good earnings and profits but business is just not growing. Some more it falls in my penny stock bin, so I don't really know how to value those properly.

For mbmr, the last I did my projections, business wise in Malaysia long term it will only average around max 2.2 billion revenue with low margins. It's not a business that can scale abroad well nor can it compete with China speed and efficiency. I don't think it has good long term growth prospects worth holding.

Hi lazycat,
I reject all valuation of vice counters off hand, so I don't even waste my time in those.

Got Lotte olefin basically it's raw material cost it's tied down to oil prices, so if it stays down Lotte will always have good margins. I don't know if the plant maintenance is done yet and the capacity dropped because of it. But I'm sure if the capacity goes back to normal levels, your share price will recover due to the capacity and margins. Who doesn't like a nice dividend here and there

On an off side, as this also happened to me before. I believe lending money to financially uneducated people at very high interest rates is a sin and a horrible action.

This is a tax on the ignorant. Bullying and robbing ignorant people and turning them into slaves is detestable to me.

I don't invest in gaming, vice counters. And I feel that investing in companies that I realized is basically a government ah long in name is a horrible thing to do, turning people into slaves that work just to pay their debts.

I believe in karma.

I can do better with my investing skills.

How can anyone hate value?

But isn't the inverse also true? If you discard 50 PE stocks just because it is expensive, wouldn't you miss almost all the FANG stocks? They have all at one point or another but very high pe levels.

Or in bursa case,
You have 32% committed to RCECAP and 5% committed to aeoncredit. If this is true simply because of a valuation based simply on price/earnings ratio, wouldn't you have missed 10 years of value creation multiples?

But if you applied business sense in identifying the fallacy of lending money to the 40 bottom wage earners at very high rates of interest where if your lending pool becomes big enough you will definitely be doing subprime lending ( assuming government officers will always be able to pay off their high interest rate loans) with disastrous long term results.

Compare that with credit card lending to disposable income public who buy goods at aeon and top up with rm100 for a 2 year extended warranty. Free money. Very low risk.

Which company do you think deserves a high PE and shareholder confidence? I'd buy aeoncredit over RCECAP in an instant.

>> Posted by lazycat > Jan 15, 2019 10:54 PM | Report Abuse

i think if you invest nestle instead of ql in year 2009 , your return would be much higher now


I think not. How much of Nestle PE53 do you think is a measure of the name brand with retail investors versus it's ability to execute new business strategies. Also it is the most thinnest traded stock in Bursa 70% owned by parent company.

I mean, why would the investing crowd give QL a business with low dividend payout 50 pe? Are they insane? At least Nestle gives a growing consistent dividend to it's shareholders. Why reward ql share price up after poor performance in that may quarter?

I kid.

I see far far more growth triggers in QL future than in Nestle Malaysia.

Yes exactly what I feel as well. For me if the price was low enough, the storage business is the exact reason why I think it is a long term but and hold. The EPCC is the reason why I stay away...

qqq3 for a self proposed trader is also someone looks at business sense.

But in the end why should there be competition?

Use your business sense to understand the long term prospects
Use your fundamentals to evaluate margin of safety and intrisic value
Use your technicals to find that shooting star and the best time to buy

I don't get that part. All investing in VALUE investing.

How could it not be?

The only thing that matters is I buy a stock today because I think it will appreciate in VALUE tomorrow.

If it doesn't, either you made a mistake, the management made a mistake, or God gave you a mistake.

Number 5 on my wish list would probably be DIALOG. Now that is a magnificent company with quality management.

However, I have never had the chance to invest in it at prices that I would consider to have my level of margin of safety.

I'm not stupid you know. I do know when something is overvalued and it's growth prospects within the 10 year period or more is unclear. Those I won't buy. No matter what. But every quarter I still follow up on it.

But here is a formula.

Any stock, no matter how small the growth is, if it grows infinitely over time, will have a 100% margin of safety if you buy it today.

Am I wrong?

No? But not knowing that you need to exercise scuttlebutt to test your analysis judgement.

Just because I won't buy INSAS today for 0.50 cents doesn't mean I won't buy INSAS tomorrow for rm15. But ONLY if multiple quarters of excellence and certain criteria fits my expected story.

For the answer to that question, may I refer the humble rubber tree.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hevea_brasiliensis

Basically it is a plant that grows best in a tropical it subtropical environment. Any form of frost will basically kill the tree.

So, even if the market increases, the space to plant rubber trees are limited. Especially for natural rubber products.

Anybody can make booze and sell it. No so natural rubber. ( I won't go into synthetics, those are different business altogether)

Now Malaysia seems very corrupt to you and me, but the equator line which produces these rubber trees most efficiently like India, South America, South East Asia are full of turmoil and difficulty in doing efficient business.

Malaysia is actually very stable economy. TOPGLOV and HARTA just happen to be the most efficient lowest cost producer with enough rubber tree plantations supply to be able to produce and sell high quality rubber gloves efficiently with enough profits to add m&a activities, r&d activities and economies of scale that it makes it very hard for an upstart to break in.

And in the medical field, if you are a doctor handling disease and blood on a daily basis, do you really think they will mess around with what gloves they wear? Especially when the box is already very cheap? We are not selling disposable iPhones here.

Basically what I am trying to say is, when you visit the prostitute, other than the girl herself, wouldn't you want to buy a box of Durex instead of some no name brand?

HARTA has this kind of quality with their nitrile gloves. TOPGLOV, less.

Now I'm not saying that one day the market share will drop, even Nokia died to apple losing to Android.

But I'd like to think the future of the rubber gloves industry is far more predicable than say a tech company.

Who bought friendster, Snapchat and Twitter! Not me. I don't even have Facebook.

Stockraider, now you have me interested, what is this 40% in growth and quality holdings that you speak of?

Please do share here what stocks you bought and how long you have held it.

Let's see what kind of margin of safety you speak of.

https://youtu.be/63zIApwfzQI

Fast forward to number 11 for Charlie Munger and Warren buffet idea of margin of safety.

Yes, sslee,

The wertheimer family also came down to the annual meeting, and at that point Warren was gratitude enough to explain that they were one of the 5 pillars of Berkshire.

Now, do you know WHY Warren buffet bought iscar?

10 points and full marks if you can do that without referring to someone else's analysis!

For HEVEA, focus lumber, and evergreen I group it all within the same category. These are all penny stocks with high volatility, good cash position but no long term growth plan on view. If you ask yourself, where will HEVEA expand to in 5-10 years you know as well as I do they have no growth triggers or anything in the pipeline.

Pump and dump stock, trade at your own risk.

And malls! Avoid any developer building malls as a matter of principle! Avoid them for they are the black plague!

As for scientex I think it is a very very smart company, although both in industries which I don't like.

It is not a good time to be a developer, but if you have to be a developer, it is best to sell cheap landed housing which public can afford ( rumah mampu milik) or to concentrate on shoplots, which can generate higher rental yield psqft than condos, which people are now realizing are bad deals which benefit only developers. If you buy a 700k condo, which can rent out for only 3k a month, and buy a 3 story shoplots for 1.8 million, which can rent out 10k per month, which would you choose? Which has more room to increase in value?

Scientex does both of these, which is brilliant. Condos, not so much.

The stretch film manufacturing, which does 1.9 billion revenue on 1.6 billion cost of sales, is going to be a business that will grow quite well in the long run, giving a lot of leeway to company growth prospects. It is very low profit, and in a business with no moat, which I don't really like. But it has good management, which goes a long way. ( Just ask Warren buffet who took over dying Berkshire, sold is textiles business and bought an insurance business 2 years later)

However, Hong Leong owner had told his bankers not to borrow money to developers, and for good reason. I feel the same way too.

I will probably, maybe invest in a property company 10 years from now, but right now I avoid them like the plague.

Cheers!

For Sam engineering, it is a company based it's factories and plants in Penang, ergo usually led, semiconductors and hard disk drive. I personally don't like this business, as I don't see any long term future in manufacture of drives. As someone who started with floppy disks on my 186, then moved to hdd, then the move to solid state, I have a good friend who worked with Seagate. He was retrenched. I realized the tooling industry is not very amenable to change with new equipment expenses and long term return. Especially if your equipment and entire manufacturing methods change almost overnight.

For it's aerospace division, the only company that I have looked at before was Boeing, Airbus and Barnes aerospace. My take on this: the aerospace business is dominated by Boeing and Airbus and they have new and old engines to be maintained. It does not favor the MRO suppliers and market. By doing a comparison of the business in Barnes and Sam you see a very clear similarity. There are only a limited amount of planes that need to be replaced and maintained every year. And each new growth will be driven by new and different types of planes, meaning new upgrade in capex, lower margins and most importantly, an inability to grow organically because best competing prices are always wherever is nearest to the planes. It's a very standardised business, and cost of export hampers growth.

Then again, if it wasn't everyone would be sending engine casing from plants in China, UK and US.

Personally, it's a interesting business, but the profit margins compared to Barnes aerospace division gives me a skip.

I still think it's a fine business with ok prospects 5-10 years from now, but I'd rather look for companies with either high growth and low profits, or lower growth with high profit earnings, while protecting shareholder value. But I do like to buy companies with a clear business advantage ( like boring and Airbus), or superior tool manufacturing model. I don't see that for sam within the next 5 years.

Hi pputeh, aeoncredit is a good buy! My advice is if the story of aeonco bhd doesn't change, it may be a good idea to continue holding.

Just that when you do quarterly analysis, you need to understand the business of aeonco tightly, as they are correlated. Because they split the business into 2 parts ( similar to how Citibank was split into good assets and bad assets), you have to remember the story that as the assets and supermarkets of aeonco grows, so will the lending base of aeon credit.

Aeon credit is the best lending of all, they charge directly to credit cards which is under the bank provisioning so you don't have to worry about bad debt. Then they sell high interest rates and high premiums for nonevents like 2 year insurance warranty.

If I had know about aeon years ago ( they don't have any branches in Sabah and Sarawak), I might have bought. As it is, I don't see them doing aeoncredit for senq, Harvey Norman and the rest.so we need to monitor aeonco closely.

But I do still follow the performance every quarter. If the story changes, I'll be the first to join you in!

Cheers and good luck investing!

I deem penny stocks to be anything below RM500 million market cap. As anything below this amount is either a business that is too young or too small for you to make an intelligent analysis (with exceptions), or it is too easy to buy a huge block, generate euphoria and greed, and run out with a 5-10% gain.

Do you really want to play this kind of zero sum game where the late game is everyone hates your guts?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4149368-discounting-future-cash-flows-buffett-munger-approach

This also sums up how I feel about investing theses days. You could learn about margin of safety, stock valuation and the entire important philosophy of the intelligent investor in 1 chapter. Yes, that is 30 minutes of reading. Once you have the basics, the rest of simply reading up on as many financial reports you can find and understanding what the numbers tell you about the business.

When you pay 4-5k on an investing course, the sifu can actually share to you the most important tenets of investing in 30 minutes. In ta, it is basically volume analysis, momentum analysis, trends analysis and support and resistance of charts.

But if you pay 4-5 k for 30 minutes what would be the point? Therefore the sifu will start introducing to you complicated terms like Fibonacci, simple moving average 20 day, 50 day, 200 day. Exponential moving average, RSI, TSI,macd, Bollinger bands. They then proceed to sell you specialized indicators which is backdated to make a profit for the last 20 years, but never seem to work out in the future ( or Black swan event)

In the end, use too much indicators and you see the wrong thing. Value things in the wrong way.

The ones that succeed (in ta majority of the time) are those that understand the 30 minutes basics of technical analysis.

TA is about 2 things
1. Understanding market psychology. Fear and greed.
2. Ta is about using past price/volume movements to predict future events

Best application of ta( business sense of how they really earn money)
1. Small penny stocks, volatile stocks with some resemblance to fundamentals.
2. Pump and dump
3. People selling and giving stock recommendations where they can buy first before you and sell after everyone has gone in.

Hence, once you understand what the game is, you are forced to buy 100-120 counters for short periods because the psychology is all about pump and dump .

I merely wish to advise investors on a better way, a more effective way of finding and supporting a management that wishes to grow shareholder value in the long run. Instead of also playing the pump and dump game.

In summary, learn to build a story. Understand the business. Then get into the nitty gritty of the business, the valuations, the profits, the assets, the revenue growth...

because if you don't have a good story, your financial investment could end up in smoke just like that.

3iii, I have quietly read this promotion too. Calvin did promote PMCorp by saying it will be worth 50 sen.

Luckily, he did not say where this will be or when will it be.

So, you know I know la.

Buy INSAS. lol.

I think this is enough. Any and all information shared will be like pearls thrown before swine. Only thing to be done is to revisit this forum 2 years from now, and relearn the lessons of old.

Everything here said in the end is just speculation and view of mind based on previous results.

I hope all the best here, I don't know any of you in real life but I wish no one here any harm or loss in their investments.

I do not do IDSS of INSAS so I have nothing to gain.

I am not long a single share of INSAS so I have nothing to lose.

I promise to shake sslee hand 2 years from now and a offer of free Bak kut teh to both CharlesT and stockraider should MNRB and INSAS performance better than QL 2 years from now ( share price+ dividend, not nta).

And I promise not to be too harsh in my criticism should stockraider and calvin tan bring their followers to the wrong stock.

Have a good week everybody. You'll not hear me critique INSAS again ( except in January 2020 and January 2021).

stockraider you lost all of my confidence when you said INSAS has been growing and consistent profitable growth without losses for 10 years straight.

Whatever you say from this point on should and must be ignored.

Dear Sslee,

if that is the way you feel, then you have nothing more to learn. You have mastered all the investing skills that took me 20 years to learn.

Maybe one final thing,

the word objectively and DCF are 2 mutually exclusive things. DCF ( I assume you are talking about discounted cash flow analysis) is the most subjective thing I have ever heard and used. I use it very often to calculate, but only on a relative basis, as you can put any form of vindication to prove a company cash flow growth.

you have to apply subjectively:

1. discount rate ( do tell me what I should put in for this figure, as using NYSE discount rate into bursa stocks has been suicide for me. I have tried all sorts of WACC, risk free rates and beta and have found a figure that works for me. what figures do you use?)
2. growth assumptions (which work best for companies with fixed growth like manufacturing, commodities like QL and INARI, and horrible for investment companies like INSAS. How do you judge? Do you listen to the CEO for his growth assumptions? or just build your own based on past data?)
3. terminal growth rate? ( you need to understand the business to even be a judge of this.)

Using this method, everyone can look at the same stock and come out with the different results.

Understand your business first. Then go use your DCF and FA and TA to decide on INSAS long term prospects.

I just hope you are right in the end.

Its not my money being stuck here for 5-10 years.

* If investing in DCF and NTA was that simple, would any smart man be losing money?

Sslee is far far smarter, at least he also looks at the business point of view and the net profit. For me to value your items let me put it into perspective: Now that i have a closer look at insas:

1. What is INSAS m&a securities market share of investors? how fast is it growing, how fast are its competitors (TA, JUPITER, MAYBANK, HL,) in fact, skip that, just take insas m&a securities and compare it to rakuten securities. for scuttlebutters, which service do you use? do you use insas? if you dont, why not? will you use insas margin loans and services ins the future?

2. insas credit and leasing. they do a lot of mezzanine financing and development project financing. if even hong leong and public bank BALK at lending to developers and leave banks liks mbsb to do mezzanine and project financing. just compare the performance of developer lenders like mbsb to know the long term performance of insas credit & leasing. the key thing to learn for banking is that it is very low margin, and it only work if you have huge capital to play with. thats why majority of banks have a saving account program, because that is free money to borrow out. Does insas have free money to play with that they do not need to pay off (preferred shares, interest expenses etc) 1 billion ringgit in cash is barely enough to grow (refer rcecap)

3. past performance does not equal future results. yes midvalley was a steal, but in your 10 years of monitoring insas have they ever bought more high value growth building with that 900 million cash? in fact, try selling those buildings in this depressed market, will you get fair value for them? just like trying to sell you 0.69 insas shares for rm 3. Any takers?

4. inari shares? try offloading 20% of inari shares, do you think you can get fair value for them when big investors are not buying it from you for rm2.5? in the end it is liquid but not cash. If insas management decides to hold on to inari even when you spot bad weather ahead, it will drop from 2.5 to 1.41. And there is nothing you can do about it as a minority shareholder. As an investor in INSAS, you should not be worried about the value of inari, but more of the question of what insas is going to do with using the value of inari in growing insas share price and dividend increase. A simple recourse, sell inari shares, buy back insas shares and increas divided for insas shareholders. This is not being done, are the management reasons for this inligned with insas shareholder value. I say no.

5. anyone who buys shares in a property developer like hohup with margins that they do is doing something wrong. I could throw a rock and hit a developer with better net margins. even CalvinTan sifu could give you a list of 10 property developer stocks with better profit margins. And why not? With 350 million in borrowings to do their property management (sales of their goldedn wave in sabah, KK at rm1300 psqft is not doing well) what profit margin can you find when they are paying heavy interest payments. and answer me this, how much is omesti paying hohup to rent their office space?

6. that cash is not cash in the regular sense of financial reports. You should use it the same way as valuing a bank, it is a liability, a finished product that insas sells via its m&a securities, credit & leasing. oxygen to fund its margin loans, executables, and more importantly underwrite an ipo. For example, in 2014, m&a securities did an ipo for carimin petroleum where they have to underwrite and make sure there are enough buyers for carimin stock. to do this, they sold preferred shares and warrants (raised 174 million), a sum of which they used to execute this stock ipo. Now, how often do you get insas to do your ipo's for you? only for small companies and low risk. And there is always a risk involved in underwriting. If things go south, do you think it becomes just cash again?

for more learning here is a good read

https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/annual-reports/2017-annual-report.pdf

note how much more detailed nyse requires their annual reports to be? notice how simple insas statements are.

stockraider, just taking net assets as a measure of company performance is laughable. and stop lying to public:

INSAS just posted losses in this quarter
26-Nov-2015 30-Sep-2015 47,306 -25,726 -28,279 -29,021
28-Aug-2013 30-Jun-2013 88,471 -9,653 -5,328 -7,560
30-Aug-2012 30-Jun-2012 61,443 -17,724 -15,887 -14,030
29-Nov-2011 30-Sep-2011 73,505 -18,388 -19,318 -19,212

INSAS 10 YEAR UNINTERRUPTED GROWTH AND PROFIT? QL has never posted a losing quarter in 20 years.

PLEASE STOP RECOMMENDING SHARES BASED ON LIES.

Taken from page 4 of fintec annual report:
The financial year ended 31 March 2018 has in many ways been a meaningful year to our Group. It
is meaningful as it marks our 10-year anniversary since our listing on the MESDAQ Market of Bursa
Securities (now known to us all as ACE Market of Bursa Securities) on 12 December 2008. No doubt,
the decade has brought about many challenges to the Group, but the important thing is that we
have persevered. So much so that we have grown from a Group with net assets of RM27.1 million
in 2008 to RM185.4 million as at the end of our financial year 2018. I leave itt up to you to calculate fintec net assest growth percentage.

Haha finally, I was wondering when somebody would come over and promote FINTEC as the new INSAS.

Look! It is an incubator with 200 million in assets selling at only 42 million.

It's nta is crazy!, It's got lots of cash, it owns well running pubs and bars in KL and it does everything from biotech, to oil and gas to many many things. Including fintech.

They are doing esos for 0.10 cents, and it's been snapped up by all it's staff!

And some more share price is only 0.07 cents. How wonderful!

The margin of safety for this company must be brilliant.

And if I sell my QL shares I can get 25%-30% of this wonderful company!

Best thing is, it's revenue for record quarter is 2 million, but gain from sales of marketable securities which they don't need to pay income tax have them a net profit of 40 million! Isn't that wonderful? 2000% margin.

Stockraider, what now you want? Got nta, got depressed share price. This stock with at least rm0.30 cents!

Buy buy buy!

P.s. this is pure sarcasm. The reasons not to buy FINTEC is even more apparent than the reasons not to buy INSAS. Those who are not smart enough to value stocks should stop recommending them.

That was a rethorical question you soochai,

If everyone is not going to be a soochai like you are, then who will pay you rm1.50 for you shares? Nobody, because all the penny stock investors are cheap like you.

Ergo. Value trap

Exactly my point, what is the value of INSAS other businesses apart from inari...

That is the real reason why no one is willing to pay up for INSAS.

If inari= INSAS,

INSAS would be selling at rm4-5 by now.

Understand???

If still don't understand why INSAS is selling below nta at such a huge discount, then really nothing more to say.

I apologize.

Stockraider is master investor.
INSAS is the Berkshire Hathaway of Malaysia.
Numoni is going to become a 6 billion dollar company.
Dome coffee is going to overthrow Starbucks in 2020.
Pacific car rental is going to buy over grab.
Inari will be a 15 billion dollar Malaysia tech marvel.

Buy, buy, buy.

P.s. tomorrow I sell all my QL shares buy your INSAS.


P.s.s scrap that idea, we still have that 2 year long term bet on INSAS and QL STOCK performance + dividend. No extra points awarded for nta growth.

Stockraider storytime and real world application are very different.

Many investors bought INSAS at rm1, rm0.9, 0.8 and proceed to hold for 3-5 years with paper losses using your EXACT same thought patterns. This has been done since 2015 every year sometime brings this up. At the same time you can buy inari, high PE growth stock and do very well for yourself. Or you could have bought QL and do even better for yourself. The point is all your idea of nta and margin of safety is useless if you don't know the business. You can have rm15 nta and it would mean nothing to you as a minority shareholder if you cannot have stock performance or dividend growth. It is worse when the majority shareholder or fund managers also does not share your confidence.

The only reason this escapes you is the single fact that no one including yourself stockraider is willing to pay rm1.5 or more for INSAS.

Why? Why are you not willing to pay 1.5 for a stock you so firmly believe is worth rm3. Please tell me that. Just a simple answer to a simple question. I know it is worth nta rm3. I do know value investing, I know you are trying to buy cigar butts lying on the ground. And yes there is a significant margin of safety, if you paid 1.50 you will get 100% profit if INSAS sells at nta.

You know why? just because INSAS is undervalued, has wonderful nta does not make it a wonderful company. If investing is simply just a ratio of nta, then it would be very simple to make money in the stock market.

But it is not.

Same opposite reason, you did not invest in topglove, QL, public bank and yinson because you think painting is only about 3 primary colors.

As long as PE entire than 30, it is immediately a bad stock.

Too bad, Amazon is a trillion dollars company which you never invested in.

I don't know why I bother reading anymore, Calvin is a master in saying irrelevant things.

He say Mr market undervalue INSAS, but this is not a one year thing it 2 year thing, INSAS has been undervalue for a very long time.

Then he say QL is overvalued, but 2009 he never bought, 2013 he never bought, 2017 also he never bought. For 9 years I've been holding QL stock and it has been overvalued.

His carimin 5 year performance is gruesome.

His bjcorp 5 year performance is gruesome.

Almost every single stock he picks is gruesome long term.

He say he is a value investor, but nothing he buys is valuable long term.

I mean if master Calvin is really a sifu, why doesn't he recommend QL in 2009,2013,2014-2017? Why doesn't he double down every quarter on good performing stocks like inari, and keep recommending losers like INSAS.

And mark my words, for all the nta and profit and useless gestures of INSAS, the only 2 metrics that mean anything to minority shareholder, long term stock performance and dividend growth, INSAS is sorely lacking.

Just look at the 5 year stock performance and dividend growth of his INSAS, it is just horrible.

I could literally put my money in inari and still be rewarded better. In fact, I could put my money into FD over 5 years and still make more money than INSAS shareholders.

Rather than keep promoting INSAS, just one article on why the investing public is not "investing" long term in INSAS would be far more useful.

But sifu Calvin doesn't know, does he? Especially since he doesn't hold any stock in INSAS, and doesn't plan on buying any.

"If you can't buy a stock without being ready to own it for 10 years, you should be holding that stock for 10 minutes." - Warren Buffett

" If you can't make a reasonable analysis of a company revenue and business growth prospects 5 years from now, you probably don't understand that business well enough. Stay away. You don't have to buy every stock out there."

Dear sslee,

For the answer to that question, you only have to look at historical data,
Date. Revenue. Net profit
31-Mar-2018 784,427 46,098
31-Dec-2017 892,018 63,097

Drop of revenue, drop off net profit. Share price goes up. Do you notice the resilience of QL? That is because everyone looks beyond just nta, earnings, profits, revenue and looks at business performance, investment growth and execution of business strategies.

Meanwhile, for INSAS bulls, if Apple has guided towards a slowdown, and you know for a fact sales of inari is going to reduce in the coming months,

How do you think it will affect INSAS?

Everyone makes mistakes, but it is those who fall in love with their stock that refuses to hear outside advice.

Even I am not in love with my QL, every quarter I look at the financial report and make my decision. If it remains the same I buy. If it doesn't, I review.

Believe me, the moment the story changes, you need to be aware enough and nimble enough to sell.

INSAS is a stock which has never changed its story, 5 years ago, same today, pretty much same story 5 years from now.

Management will not buy back stock, is barely giving a dividend, financing it by selling inari shares.

What do you have to look forward to?

Well said. When a stock is cheap, look for the reason a stock is cheap.

If a stock is cheap for a temporary reason, then it becomes value investing.

If a stock is cheap for a permanent reason, then it becomes a value trap.

When you look at the situation if INSAS, you come to the question:

When can I reasonably expect the temporary undervaluation of INSAS to be resolved to it's proper price?

If your answer is I don't know when it will resolve, how it who will resolve it, or why would they?

Then you are better off not owning INSAS.

My belief had always been if you want to sell a share, use it to buy a better one. INSAS sells inari shares for no other purpose than to book a profit. Where does the earnings go to?

1. Buy more cars for rental?
2. Buy more brands for retail?
3. Buy more fintech?
4. Sengemics? Really, if you were a biotech firm, would you open in Singapore or in a forgotten, talentless country like Brunei? Spending USD 11m in Brunei is pointless. Might as well open a DNA sequencing firm in miri. It's cheaper, uses myr and has the same resources as Brunei. Which is nothing.
5. Numoni? Really? Have you ever used numoni payment app before ? I have. I continually wonder who invests in companies like these.

If you want credit where credit is due, let me introduce you to a company named NQ mobile ( note is link-motion). It is a company with 600 million USD in cash. Look at the share price. Look at the parallels between its company focus, products and cashflow.

Real cashflow, not selling of shares to generate income.

Everyone keep saying that INSAS is worth this much and that much. But I only have 3 questions to be answered:

1. From 2009-2018 they declare net profit of 900 million, brilliant! what is the earnings from? What are they doing with the earnings? How are they expanding and growing the return of equity? How are they rewarding the shareholders? Oh wait I know the last part, 2% dividend or 42 million out of the 900 million earnings.

2. Shareholders are not being rewarded, and they are punishing INSAS stock with low valuation. Even sslee is only willing to buy more INSAS stock at rm0.5. can someone give me financial figures why the general public n even sslee and stockraider wants to punish own company? If INSAS is worth rm3, surely there is someone out there who is willing to pay rm1.5 for it. Why has this never happened in INSAS history?

3. What organic growth can you calculate INSAS doing that does not include inari earnings? Comparing Berkshire to INSAS is insanity because they buy good businesses almost one every year or so. INSAS got lucky one time.

Why are you guys enjoying buying mutual funds? If you like inari just buy it. If you bought inari in 2016, you would have tripled your money before the crash. If you bought a mutual fund like INSAS that helps you invest in car rentals and vigcash and loss making clothes, and lousy dome coffee where you don't have any control over buying or selling of inari shares to profit you deserve every cent you lose.

Here is my finalized long game on INSAS:

5-10 years from now, INSAS is going to spend your 900m earnings in investing in a newfangled business ( let's say self driving car rental business) that will flame out spectacularly.

I say this because I can't find anything in INSAS that I would buy for the long term other than it's holdings in inari.

It doesn't grow it's business, it buys the wrong businesses at the wrong time, and time will prove if holding on to inari shares for the long term will be a fruitful endeavor.

And for sslee comparison of QL vs INSAS? I prefer buying a income producing farm ANYDAY compared to buying a piece of undeveloped land. Your idea of nta is beyond shallow. Inari shares are worth nothing unless sold for cash and dividends. If this year there is a correction of tech stocks ( and Apple has already guided to a decline in the next few quarters), you could lose 50% of your value in inari.

Without being able to do anything about it.

Me? I still have my farm.

I'd pay a premium for that.

I don't think so jellyfish, since the nta is worth rm3, definitely tan Sri halim will purchase rm3 for it one day.

Never mind business performance, ROE or organic growth.

It is worth nta3, never mind that you will be paying 1.8 billion for a company that does nothing, grows nothing and builds nothing long term.

Yes, datuk seri thong won't live forever. But when new management is telling you they are not buying INSAS shares, and they tell you they will not be buying INSAS shares in the future...

What are you doing buying INSAS shares?

In essence this is a perang tiga penjuru between acheh, melaka and Portugal. Portugal wants to take melaka straits, but they know without melaka support they can't do it. Melaka currently controls the straits, but they don't dare expand because parameswara just died and the new King is an idiot who can't grow the Port. And acheh, they just want to be rich so they dip into the straits of melaka, not knowing they have to stay on the other side of the sea, and can't go to rich people corner.

Interesting points.

Fair value of INSAS is rm3?

So in a nutshell, assuming they have the warchest, current management will not pay fair value for INSAS. And big activist investors will also not pay fair value for INSAS. So it comes down to how much below fair value investors are willing to sell for INSAS right now?

However,

If share price goes up too high, many investors will cash in the warrants to convert to shares, introducing dilution and bringing the share price down again.

They have 687 million in cash but they haven't gotten around to either spending it on a good m&a target or giving it out to the longtime suffering shareholders. So since their other investments are not producing tangible results, they pump in more money into inari shares because they can't do share buybacks.
<<< Does money in other people's bank help to feed stockraider at night?

Retail shareholders come here from inari, so any surprises with inari will directly impact INSAS performance, even if management of inari is a separate party. <<< INSAS shareholders to pay for inari mistakes? But they can't enjoy inari benefits?

The share price of INSAS has been rangebound at rm1, so retail investors are reflexively thought to sell some shares when it goes above rm1, due to warrant consideration and management guidance from their revenue and profit generation. <<< Raise your hand anyone who start thinking of selling INSAS shares the moment it goes beyond rm1.5. And you call yourselves shareholders. Shame on you. NTA is 3.

All in all, the retail investor, current management and fund managers all do not want to pay rm3 for INSAS, as they do not believe in the future of INSAS 5-10 years from now to find another inari. Even though they believe the nta value of INSAS is worth rm3.

So the main question is, how much discounts are you willing to sell for me to take INSAS off your hands?

If everyone is willing to let go of INSAS at rm1.5 to rm2,

Then using the nta value of rm3 is useful only as a guide.

If even the current management biggest shareholder is not willing to pay rm2 to buy your shares from you, and if you know 5 years from now you will never get more than nta for INSAS (there will always be a discount to value for management)

Wouldn't this be the very definition of a value trap?

Just some thoughts as ttb icap.biz also runs the same operation, just using nta as a valuation point, without looking at ROE and business performance.

You are still scratching your head on soy part? Maybe you should read latest qr report from layhong on their earnings miss. They quote soy price increase in 8% cause their profit to drop drastically. That and culled birds and inventories thrown away. But maybe you think all your chickens eat corn...

I3lurker..

Sorry but before you further embarrass yourself with a business you are not familiar with, maybe I can help elaborate on how QL started business.

QL did not start selling chickens and eggs, as it is a controlled items.

They started doing fishmeal and feedstock trading in 1987. Basically they were in the fertilizer business ( for animals) as this is a uncontrolled price item in the market.

Then they diversified into poultry, broilers, day old chickens and eggs after they have established full vertical integration via QL agrofoods sdn bhd.

Most small and mid farms struggle with poultry business because the selling price of poultry is fixed, but manpower is always increasing, and they always have to import soy and animal feed from suppliers (like QL) who have a duopoly with gold coin holdings (privately owned), Cargill and CP.

The ones that have their own feedmill operations (ql) which also uses raw materials from palm oil (ql) to produce their own feed for their high tech low manpower poultry farm(ql) which are then sold to their own retail operations ( family Mart) are very few and far between.

The nearest comparison you can find in asean is CP foods, the subsidiary of privately owned CP group. they own 7-11 in Thailand, they do aquaculture and frozen food, have a pe of 20 and do around 28 billion rm revenue per year, with a operating margin of 1.9%.

People are not valuing QL based on local statistics. Foreign investors are buying into QL based on it's comparison with CP. QL is growing at a faster rate than CP foods, and doing it at a net margin of 6-8% earnings.

They not only have been able to penetrate into Vietnam and Indonesia, but are doing it at better margins.

Why I'm still holding at 50pe? I'm looking at the economic landscape, the future business 10 years from now and I'm confident that ql can easily make the jump from 3.6 billion yearly sales to 10 billion yearly sales easily. And if they fight CP foods toe for toe with 28 billion sales revenue?

I'll be along for the ride.

Sslee, interested in learning something new here. Not being critical or offensive.

I humbly want to know:

Many management are comfortable with going over the 33% , and many ways to go about it without triggering the stock buyin.
e.g.
NESTLE SA owns 70% of Nestle Malaysia
Ql owners own 52% of ql resources
Hap Seng consolidated Berhad owns 53% of hap seng plantations

What do you mean when they cannot go above the 33% mgo threshold?

Do you mean
A. When they trigger this threshold they need to show SC that they have enough money to buy all the shares as a substantial shareholder, otherwise they must sell until below this level again?
Or
B. they unable to create a proxy holding company so that they can hold indirect shares in INSAS that they can use to increase their direct shareholdings privilege

Very interested to know.

- I still believe that the best option is for INSAS to buy back its own stock to push up the price of INSAS to fair value region, instead of buying more stock in inari and dgsb and vigcash which is high pe valuation. If INSAS is overvalued I can understand the reason for not doing this, but INSAS seems so grossly undervalued I really want to understand management decision in not doing so.

I just finished reading this:

>>>>
FRIDAY, 12 JUNE 2009
Lessons from the recent severe bear market
Reviewing my investing of the last 1 year.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2009/06/lessons-from-recent-severe-bear-market.html

This is brilliant and scary at the same time because when I went big and lost in aokam perdana and renong back in the day I actually wrote the same thing almost word for word. And kept reading it while saving money to pay back friends and family borrowings after the big loss of 97'.

I still remember writing it down in my buku 555.
>>>>
Biggest lesson I learned: never trust fund managers and analysts ever again. They promised me tan Sri halim was going to pay the 2.3 billion option for uem( he didn't) and he now runs sumatec (which I will never recommend to anyone)

3iii - you have my respect and restored my faith in the investors of the forum!

Keep trusting your own self and ignore the noise surrounding you!

Not only am I focused on tax,

I also look at the deliverables and receivables, where it take 4 months to deliver one machine.

As for growth, can you name all their customers? There are 325 customers I last checked.

The only reason why they bought from vitrox was that at each juncture they were selling cheaper than the competition at a acceptable quality level.
(Japan vision machines have a much lower failure rate)

Once you put tax into the equation, they will either have to raise prices or sell it at 5% margins to remain competitive. For a tech firm that has 290 workers and spend 40 million on r&d every year to complete with companies that doesn't 500 million on r&d every year?

What growth? Where growth? Why growth?

You talk about strategic growth as if you know what it means.

If you really did you would have bought QL in 2009, public bank during financial crisis.

Your only smart move was buying genting when everyone thought the theme park was a disaster.

That I salute.

Problem is, do you dare consolidate and buy more every quarter?

Do you know why you should buy or not? Or are you like the others, always looking at price first and foremost