In my opinion, I believe the scuttlebutt approach is the perfect test case for a stock like padini.

Firstly let's forget the early game and the previous gains of padini 5-10 years ago.

Like Flintstones said, there were less competitors, less choices, and more disposable income.

I asked my wife and daughter over breakfast today on what clothes they shop and where do they shop now (scuttlebutt). I remember my daughter used to have cupboards full of vincci shoes and my wife would buy some padini pants for me on discount for work.

My wife now does her shopping tomorrow exclusively at uniqlo. I do too. The prices are reasonable and the colors are nice for the regular family, and the technology and quality that uniqlo has for the heattech? And the stretchy jeans leave me no other favorite comparison locally. Its a wonderful shopping experience. And they also have interesting collaborations with Disney, marvel and that crazy lady that likes to paint polka dots everywhere.

My daughter has found my credit card, and also taobao, Zalora, all online shops. I asked why she is confident in buying online, she say price is half on retail shop, free shipping on certain order amounts, flash sales, and most importantly got escrow ( meaning taobao will hold the money until both sides are acceptable).

The long game for padini is not good. With open market, we can see their buying sources ( some designs exactly the same in China, at 50% price), I don't think this is a trends that will change in the future, as taxes on online trade are very hard to control and supervise.

In the future, you will see guaranteed declining sales and profit margins. Their target market in the future will either be to sell to impulse buyers in malls, or to do online trade war with China.

It is far easier to sell expensive items and bring down prices, than to sell cheap items and increase prices.

This is not a growth stock with good prospects. Paying pe15 for this is painful.

Good luck to all investing in 2019.

CharlesT, very funny, you look at stock market every day? You not worried about white hair? People buy people sell every day. The only constant is quarterly report announcement if any change to the business. Then decide.

Your mnrb claim ratio you not worried put so much money into it? Premiums is far lower than claims, reinsurance business not making money, takaful investment drop like crazy. This year I don't know if you can do more than 2.2 billion revenue, profit margin dunno if making money or not this year.

QL I can guarantee no nasty surprise, this 2019 revenue and profit definitely guaranteed higher than 2018.

I drop 0.05 cents I scared what? Less than 1% drop from our starting point. Come back 26 February after quarterly report then I see if QL story change.

MNRB story can have good result?

Funny.

Stockraider, I totally don't mind bringing you for Bak kut teh. Stock or no stock competition. Bouncing ideas is always fun.

But seriously,

After 2 years, if ql performance loses to both INSAS and MNRB? I'll give you both a free session at fuji spa pudu, all on me :)

CharlesT pick MNRB??!!!?

Wonderful, pick a umno counter previously with increasing population, but reducing insurance premiums and revenue and reducing profit. Oh wait super high expenses an receivables, even for instance comps. Sure, the long game for MNRB in 2 years time. Go up? Sure thing.

Your loss not my loss.

Noted and I'll see you in 2 years.

Haha, I am also an investor, and I also always think I am always right.

CharlesT:

My bad calls. Really really bad calls. 120k debt out of the money calls.
Aokam perdana
Ekran bhd
Renon bhd

The only stocks that I have bought post 2009,

Ql
TOPGLOV
Public Bank
YINSON

These are words from the donkeys mouth. I verbally say I bought these stocks.

Please don't put words in my mouth.

Hi Mr Lee soon sheng, greetings and apologies for the new year!

It is such a surprise and honor to meet a fellow UM graduate! I too first started work in late 80's in selangor. And believe me I also know how difficult things were back then.

Mechanical engineers were paid very low as well, but I did have a great start with George Kent and good pay of 2k. However, as I have said when I suffered greatly building up a 120k stock market debt with friends and family, I had to leave and jump ship to another MNC then building in Sabah. It paid better,had outstation allowance and ot claim. but because of my debts, I had do additional part time work in insurance and mlm to pay back my friends and family.

The rest as you know, is history.

I hope that you do not have undue stress in my criticism of INSAS. And believe me, my position is not here to insult you or cause you financial harm in your investment of INSAS. I doubt I could if I wanted to.

I will leave you to it. I hope you do well upon your retirement, I am retirement age as well soon.

I have gone through bad luck all through my life, mostly caused by my own cancerous decisions.

I paid dearly for my education in the stock market. It was my hope to enlightened new investors on my mistakes, not realizing all investors think they are always right.

Good luck sir, and may you succeed in your future endeavors!

Mmsv? Latitude? Liihen?

How about RCECAP? You forgot to mention I was talking in that as well.

Did I buy those as well? Did I say how much of those stocks I bought?

Wow, if every post made in this forum = stocks bought, you must be a very very worrying investor indeed.

I wonder if Warren buffett also started to buy and recommend the stocks that he bought, or if he did a special deal with sec to delay announcement.

Please, I'm not the type to recommend stocks then sell it once people have bought.

Hi Ricky, would you also like to join in the 2 year stock picking challenge. If any stock that I think would probably perform better than QL, it would be scientex. But since everyone here seems to be enjoying the fast and furious way of investing in penny stocks, I'm hardly worried.

A good 2019 to you, my boy!

That Charlie Munger account thing was a joke. Just because he banks at New York Mellon doesn't mean that investment is his ok?


CharlesT, if you think that 1993 engineer salary is 2k, 2000 manager salary for mnc is 7k and things don't change forever means you just have to go out and find a proper job. How many managers do you know also sell insurance, sell kangen water, so part time consulting and drafting works just to pay back borrowed money from friends and family? And after I paid them back, do you really think I will suddenly be lazy?

Anyway put up or shut up. Rather than be a troll, be a MAN.

Put 25% of your networth in 1 stock that you think is undervalued. Hold it for 2 years. If possible, tell me why think it is a good buy. Then in 2 years we come back discuss. At the risk of being laughed at, post your setoff date here. I'll use any ql date you want.

But in all honesty if you really want to know how to REAL MONEY?
Do scuttlebutt. Look through all the bursa stocks until you can find a stock that has a moat or competitive advantage. Read it until you have a clear idea of where the revenue and growth will come from, until you know the story. Find a PERFECT STORY.

Then buy. Every quarterly report if the story doesn't change ( or you got insider info), buy again. Keep collecting. Sell only when the story changes, not because people are telling you it's overvalued.

That's all I can teach. I bought QL continually for 40 quarters straight because the story never changed. Same with TOPGLOV. Same with YINSON. The stories never changed.

If you still don't get it by now, you never will.

Stockraider noted. We will do January 6 2019.

You have conviction?

I also have conviction. So does:
1. EPF.
2. ASB.
3. VANGUARD index fund.
4. Public bank growth fund.
5. Tokio Marine insurance.
6. New York Mellon. ( Charlie munger personal account?)
7. Takaful
8. PNB
9. Mondrian fund
10. Liu sin - one of my best friends and director of MB (sandakan)

These are long term shareholders with 3-5 years investing timeline. They don't buy or sell every day. I meet them every year during AGM and they don't buy or sell just because you say QL is overvalued. We all share the same long term view.

Who are INSAS shareholders again? I know for a fact vanguard doesn't invest in penny stocks that drop by 50%>

Good luck and see you again next year.

Eh, CharlesT avoiding giving an answer? You don't believe in long term investing? No conviction? No stock pick for 2 years? Even sslee is better than you, who I respect.

If you don't have the conviction to hold a stock for 10 years, don't even hold a stock for 10 minutes.

Good luck in your investments in 2019.

How about this CharlesT, you also seem very smart. Why don't you also join the game, give me a stock that you bought recently that you put 15-35% of your networth into. Let's compare it with QL 2 years from now.

It's fine. I'll use whatever date you want and track it to ql price.

FYI, like I said it's easier for me to track because as I said in QL forum, I bought 50k shares of QL at 6.25 in December after Christmas 2018.

Like I said, it's just words and number. Let's see you put some conviction down.

CharlesT, if you don't believe me you can ignore everything I say. How come you believe half but choose not to believe the other half. Is it because 7k sounds more believable to you, but my returns sounds unreliable? So if I told you my total income becomes 25k-100k it becomes more believable?

I see. You are comparing performance of your results with my results and you say it is impossible and therefore misleading.

Then no problem!

I don't have any shares in QL. I didn't buy any in TOPGLOV either. Nor in YINSON or public bank.

I'm just a 30 year old single man sitting in front of the computer typing words with no results or experience in stock picking who just attended a investing course last week sand think I'm pretty good.

Oh and I don't have a job, live under my parents roof and I eat Curry mee every day.

You got me! I'm a fake.

I have something to gain from this, don't I? QL is super overvalued at 50pe, there is 1.5+ billion shares outstanding. If I convince everyone in this forum to buy QL, will it even move the meter?

What is my angle?

P.s. my subscription service coming soon...

Come on stockraider, I put 300k for 50k shares of QL@6.25 at after Christmas 2018.

Let's see you put big money where your mouth is and say the same.

After all you don't have to show me your investment account or proof of purchase.

You just have to say... Loh!

Just words only.. mah. No need to show figure. So easy!

But your conviction and character will forever be put to question 2 years from now on your investing acumen.

Loh!

Stockraider, I don't see you buying into INSAS. Or did you? Why don't I compare with you your choice of stock that you have kept for a long time and are very confident of keeping for 2 years shall we?

I live in the real world with real results. Fairy tales are CharlesT with his 50% profit in a few days time but only a few thousand ringgit profit.

But then if you wish to do just for the sake of argument, sure why not. 5/1/2020 it is.

But seriously, where is YOUR conviction? Why don't you also do fair trade and give me a stock that you are confident enough that will perform well that YOU have personally bought heavily into and will keep for 2 years?

At least me and sslee have the guts to put our money where our mouth is. For me it is 35% of my personal net worth, for sslee I believe he also put substantial effort and money into his stock which I respect tremendously.

What have you got?

Great, it's a date. I'll save this and see you in 2 years. May I propose a setoff date? As it would not be fair to use my QL 2009 share price to compare with you.

My last big purchase of ql was in Christmas 2018 50k shares done@6.25. this is my conviction.

Let's compare 2020 Christmas day ql capital gain stock price versus your INSAS share price. If you had bought at rm1 and it dropped now to 0.67 it would not really be fair. So let's assume that your latest big purchase was Christmas day 2018 at 0.65.

Good luck.

Sure thing.

Those common logic that you and CharlesT have is exactly why you will learn 30-40 cents in carimin petroleum laugh out loud and be so proud.

But if you ask them why they buy, or when they will sell, they don't know. All based on luck. See market sentiment. Win some lose some.

Pathetic investment philosophy.

From 2009-2019 how many stock splits, earning increase, revenue increase for QL. I kept buying every quarter, I even bought 50k shares after Christmas bonus 2018. Even today.

The question I thought CharlesT would ask is how did I keep buying every quarter? Is it survival bias? Is it luck? Then why are you also buying quarterly every year on TOPGLOV and YINSON? What are the core similarities of these stocks? What did I see? And for 9 straight years? That is either crazy stupid or brilliant.

But no. Petty small children can only see petty small things.

Throwing pearls before swine.

CharlesT and lazycat, have you ever invested in a ten-bagger before? Do you know what one is? Do you know how to spot one or participate in one?

I give up. This forum is full of trolls.

Exactly. Dumb luck!

Trying having the conviction and the confidence to not buy a house, but put all you money in buying a stock. Then try putting all your spare cash every 3 months into one stock every quarter for 9 years.

But let's start easy, try paying off 120k of debt to your friends and family in 7 years with 2k salary. Which I had to do in 1993 after stupid decisions in stock market. I did many stupid things which needed to be repaired. Rob a bank? Cheat people? Why do those things? Is it even possible with 2k salary to pay them off? No need to eat?

Now think about the side income that needed to be done to pay back loan. Take outstation allowance in Sabah? Check. Convert 30 days of leave into cash? Check. Sell insurance? Check. Do MLM in Sabah? Check. Do part time drafting? Check. Do part time project management? Check. Put borrowings in staff asb account? Check. Eat Maggi mee and white bread with Kaya for years? Check.

You know nothing about me. You choose to believe I am exactly like you, when situations arise I try to do the right thing. Pay back people I borrow from honestly.

Now, do you think I stopped working hard after I payed back the money I owed? Do I stop and count my fortunes? No, it had become habit. Once you wake up at 5 every morning, it's very hard to go back. The body and mind remembers.

But please, get back to investment policies. You are not here to hear me flout about my success. You are here to see the comparison between inari and QL business.

Am I wrong?

Hi lazycat,
My wife was a public bank manager living in puchong, yes we stayed in my father in law house at that time. And no I am approaching 60 but definitely not 60 yet, and yes I have a daughter and maybe other kids.

And now stop asking for specifics, this is a investment forum, not a friendster website.

Sslee, believe what you will. My investing principles stay the same. I will leave you to do the comparing of ql performance from 2009-2019 and INSAS performance from 2009-2019.

Now that would not be a tall tale.

But please do forget the forest for the trees.

As you know there is say saying,

Pay peanuts, get money.

P.S. if it makes you feel better, I am not a real person. I am only words on a computer screen. Nothing I say or do will harm you. Everything I say on the forum is lie. I am an old man overworked with typos and unresearched info. I am actually a horrible person trying to convince you to sell off your INSAS stock so I can buy it from you at a cheaper price. Buy INSAS. Buy INSAS. It is a wonderful investment! It is like finding a jewel of a house in PJ selling below market rate!

You don't have to believe me you know. I may be wrong.

But do your own conclusions.

CharlesT, if you read my journey you will understand. Maybe I should elaborate further for you. I did not mean buy 2 million shares in 2009, what I probably should have said was, I started buying in 2009, consistently add every quarter with my company bonus and salary after reading quarterly report with my saved salary. And at 2019, I hold 2m shares in QL.

The exact details was, I bought rm200k worth of ql stock in 2009. How I got to that point is, basic salary, outstation pay,overtime pay, bonus and salary saved in my friends asb account from 1997-2009. Also definitely got a lot of side jobs because I borrowed from friends and family before to play stock market in 1993+.

But the reason why it work for me,
Every quarter I read the report. Story no change. Buy. I bought QL for 40 quarters running I believe.

To my shame, when my investment in QL jumped from 200k-500k, I did get a margin loan and dumped into TOPGLOV around 500k. It did work out well in the end, but I was pretty confident.

As for Jaks,
When Warren buffett bought Apple, do you think he calculate every single number with a team of analysts then decide to buy? No! He started with a story. And the story is very simple, I'll post it here.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/30/warren-buffett-says-he-bought-just-a-little-more-apple-recently.html

Now, everyone is selling tech stocks simply because they think it is overvalued. why is Buffett doing things differently? The story hasn't changed. So why sell?

As for Jaks story,

Everyone is buying Jaks because of the IPP to complete in 2020. It may complete, it may not complete. But my take is, so what? The long game of Jaks is never going to change. It's core business as a developer is not doing well. It builds useless malls like evolve which is beyond sad. It owes the star money, it's only long term play is to cut the development business and concentrate on being an IPP. But once it shifts focus on being IPP then what? It doesn't have the manpower or the management team to build IPP, the Vietnam thing was a lucky break ( which I pray it completes) that will be hard to replicate. They don't have the money or the resources to build another IPP.

The worse thing is, when the IPP gets completed, do you really think they will give out huge big dividend every year to you? No they won't. It will be like INSAS. They will hoard the money, giving out small dividend, while they try to figure out what they want to do next. As a minority shareholder you can complain, but there is nothing you can do about it.

Sure, it's share price is 0.45 now. And in 2 years time very high possibility it may go up to rm2. Great. But what next? Keep looking for companies like Jaks? Why?

You know for a fact that Jaks has no long term future. The CEO already disgusts me. Would I invest with him? Never.

Bad habits build bad mindsets.
Good habits build great mindsets.
Buy good companies and watch them be great.
Buy mediocre companies and watch them stagnate.

I only have a short time on earth. I don't want to waste it monitoring subpar companies like Jaks and INSAS. Eat too much Thai durian, after a while can't taste or smell musangking flavor anymore.

Stockraider, I am sure you have your investment policy and I am sure it works for you!

I believe you have a beef with qqq because he has insulted you before on a trade you make money with and fun of you on a trade you lost money with.

I also know how you feel, especially with your friend who stop posting because of barrage from qqq.

But from my point of view, I ask you a simple question. Out of all your trades, how often are you correct? And out of those which is correct, how many did you go all in and win big?

I may sell QL one day. But only when the STORY changes. Not because market tells me to sell. PE 50 might as well be pe1000 and I still won't sell.

Just to prove my point,
I bought QL in 2009 - 2m shares
I bought TOPGLOV in 2010 - 2m shares
I bought YINSON in 2012 - 600k shares
I bought public bank with me, wife and father in law money in 2012 - 500k shares
I am definitely not a one trick sailang pony. Just someone who sticks to his circle of competence.

I am not a gambler or emotional person. I started working as engineer with 2k salary, now is 7k almost retiring at 60. I don't have a rich father ( rich father in law got), in fact I am just the same as probably everyone here.

The difference between us is I research 1000 stocks, buy 1 which I am confident enough to grow 10 years, and follow it through the years.

What I used to do but no longer is research 1000 stocks, see hidden value in 500, then proceeds to buy 50 stocks which I don't know well. Put 2% in every one, but none of which I know well enough to top up every quarter.

I appreciate your gesture sslee. I'll try to give you some further insight on my investment basis as that was how I bought into QL 2009, TOPGLOV 2010, YINSON 2013. And more importantly, how I am still holding onto the shares and adding more today, Even while everyone else started selling far too early.

To be perfectly honest, the bulk of my 2m shares in QL was bought from 2009-2016, I have benefited greatly from share split since then. As such, I am not here to tell you to buy QL or recommend you to buy QL or any stock whatsoever.

That decision is up to you.

All I am presenting to you is the fact that there is a far better way to invest for the long term. When I bought QL in 2009, it was pe28. Inari pe before the cliff drop was around 30. Amazon for a very long time was pe100+. Google, apple, Berkshire all have high PE.

Why? The reason is because investors a willing to pay a premium for a wonderful company. And the reason they are willing to do that is because they get REWARDED.

So my advice is. These are my criteria in stock selection in particular order:

1. Scuttlebutt. Story first and foremost. What is the competitive advantage. How accurately can you identify the business growth will be 10 years from now.
2. Valuation and fundamental analysis on intrinsic value second. Always take this with a pinch of salt, as those figures can change drastically. Books can be cooked. Companies can restate their financial results it not even submit them.
3. Technical analysis on when to buy. Personally I don't worry on this one too much anymore. Timing doesn't really matter much if your expected holding period is 10 years or more.

If you pay peanuts, you'll eventually get bitten by the monkey.

Buy quality. Cheap people get cheap results.

Hi sslee, this will because my final response to you, as I find this forum to be toxic and unhelpful. And I hope the information serves you well

As your purchases is in INSAS and you know my views on that. As for my investment history of 9+ years in QL, I believe my investment performance speaks volumes over the performance of your stock in INSAS, unless you bought stock in inari instead, which I highly doubt you did.

But anyway, here is my long game on inari. Yes, inari is growing fast. However: firstly, 70% of it's sales go to just one customer, avago. Now broadcom is definitely a big name, however what is the future of the smartphone semicon industry? The margins enjoyed thus far is fast shrinking due to China competition but more importantly there is a slowdown of apple phones sales. It may pick up again one day, but it will not bode well for inari long game.

Why? There is nothing special about inari, it is not the lowest cost producer, otherwise it will also be selling big numbers and orders to Huawei and Samsung. But since it cannot penetrate that market, you can start to guess the long term possibilities of inari. It doesn't build anything special, or patented, or even cheap. It's only benefits is it is located in Malaysia.

What happens when broadcom's margins are pressured? They will source out to India, Taiwan, China. Anywhere that is cheaper. What happens when the cost of doing business in Malaysia increases ( as it surely will)? Intel left Penang, and when you read the semicon industry pre 2005, you will know for a fact the profits can come and go just as fast.

Inari was built in the ashes of 2005 implosion. You know from the start there is no moat.

Now, your only hope is to believe that inari is able to either have good r&d to produce new better products to sell, or die unable to adapt.

But looking at their effort to increase different sales line by working with osram on LED( very low margin) I realized that inari would probably not be good at diversifying and finding new business lines.

Compare that to QL. From just surimi, it ventured into feedstock mill. Then produced eggs and broilers. Then into frozen seafood and marine. Then into plantation and boilermech. Now into family Mart. It's ability to grow it's business lines astounds me. If I told you one day we would have 500 family Mart stores in Malaysia would that be a believable outcome?

Which is more believable, QL becoming a CP? Or inari becoming an foxconn?

10-20 years from now, I know for a fact ql will still be around. Eggs and surumi will still be bought, feedstock and fertilizer prices will still be high, chickens will still be consumed. As the most efficient producer, there will always be a demand for QL goods.

10-20 years from now, I have doubts whether inari will still be around. It's not very adaptable, and the future revenue I really don't know from where will come from where to justify it's PE.

In my 9 years of owning QL, I have never had a 50% drop or loss. I sleep well at night. I hope you do too.

You have to ask yourself, if you are confident in INSAS, would you continue buying in consistently quarter after quarter for 9 years straight, because I did with QL.

I know you didn't, and I'm sure you won't. Because you are smart, and I'm right. Company growth is the only way you will have the confidence to invest long term in a stock. And it is proven that long term investors make more money over short term investors.

But again, we are talking about INSAS, so my advise is, read up on my biggest mistake: aokam perdana. Then you will know what I mean. Just replace the words inari shares with 1000 hectares of timber land.

Again I hope your investments do well, and a happy 2019.

Phillip

And a final post for you Jonathan Choi, this will also be the last time I reply your post on how I value QL. As you are very smart, do tell me how many hectares of land QL has in Sabah and east kslimantan. How many more are they buying and planting. how much percentage from 2015-2018 is mature. What will be their capacity 5 years from now? Here is another hint, what was the price of cpo in December 2018? And what was the peak price during the palm oil boom? Please do your utmost calculations. I'll wait. Meantime, I'll also wait and see what boilermech is doing with their business.

While you are calculating, why don't you draw a graph between the price fluctuation of crude Brent and cpo prices from 2009-2018. I'll wait for that too. That's hint 2. What happens to CPO prices when oil becomes more expensive and palm oil becomes the cheaper substitute?

And while you are doing that, why don't I hand you the latest ctos sdn bhd report from family Mart subsidiary. How much outside capital do they need from ql to build a new FM outlet and grow revenue. How many branches do they have now? Are they on target for their promise of 500 outlets? How many outlets in Malaysia do you think they will have in 10 years? What will be the additional revenue and additional earnings gained from their franchise once that milestone is hit? Hint 3. The exact figures you might not find on ql annual reports, but you can find it from my QL explanation to Ricky yeoh how much exactly was stated in the p/l reports their revenue per outlet, cost of renovation outlay and profitability.

Now for the last hint. What part of of daily consumables is not regulated? Sugar price is fixed. Chicken and cow is fixed. Is livestock feed fixed? Oh? Who is one of the biggest producers in asean? What happens when raw material for animal feed goes up? Ask layhomg what happened. What happens to those who control their prices better?

Are you done calculating future revenue and earnings based simple mechanisms? Good. How much do you figure QL will earn from boilermech, familymart, palm oil plantations, feedstock, eggs, day old chickens and surimi 5-10 years from now? Now isn't that a lot easier to calculate and extrapolate than a lot of the fancy numbers you pulled from the air? When you have a clear picture of how the business is running? Now you do your DCF, and you net assets value, and your compounding ability.

Margin compression? Or did you think the price of oil is not a factor to manufacturing and plantation industries?

Please.

Moats for manufacturing businesses and pharmaceuticals never take a straight line growth. There are longer gestation periods, but compounded growth for a longer period of time should tell the tale between explosions.

Just because you don't see QL brand selling doesn't mean it's not everywhere. At 5 billion sales revenue ql product is probably as prevalent as Nestle. And oh yes your Milo and KitKat had vegetable oil in it aka palm oil. Guess who is on the sustainable palm oil list. Oh yes.

QL resources bhd.

I wish you good luck in your investments choivo, and I hope you do well in the future. But as I do not need to use margin and haven't for 8 years, my advise to you is the same. Don't use margin. And don't borrow money from your friends and family to fund your hobby. Get a job. Build a long term value. Read more. Explaining less.

But just to be frank, I don't need a single justification to explain why you should buy it not buy QL. It would slightly better for me if you didn't buy, but the price of the stock would not move anyway if you did.

I'm not an analyst, I don't do but side or sell side. I don't recommend people buy my stocks.

I don't need to make money off of selling you training courses or even need anything from you.

I don't need a subscription service business, I don't even need customers.

Now I know why koon stopped posting in such a negative forum where every opinion is not too learn more but too be a troll.

I thought I would be doing new investors a favor by sharing my 20+ journey investing. Once you hit 60 you really have nothing left to prove.

This is the last time I will post a message on this ugly unmoderated forum.

I bid you a good day, probability. May your investments do you well.

Probability, I really don't see how explaining to you what I do for my day job concerns you and investing principles at all. Other than the fact that I was part of the team doing the cpo mill in tawau, and later Indonesia, my specialty is in biomass generation and heat to electrical energy conversion. Since you seem to know Sabah so well, you can ask sistem consult and konsmal when is the next site meeting for QL plant upgrading works. But that is the most information I will give you without breaking info on who I am. But then you'd probably not know who ql m&e consultants are.

Godhand, if growing from 300 million revebue per quarter to 900 million revenue is not a sign of a growing moat, please do describe to me a company that does exactly what QL is doing and does it better. Market leaders generally have a moat. And please don't simplify moats to just brand recognition, management performance can be a moat (Warren), size can be a moat, first adopters can be a moat.

Anyway, I'll make it easier for you. Find me an Asian company in this part of the world that competes directly just with ql lifestock farming division at 1.9 billion in revenue ( animal feed raw material production, day old chicken and broilers) and does it better than ql resources.

Go ahead. I'll pay you your research fees and eat my hat.

You would recognize a moat if it bit you in the ass(et).

Funny thing is, you only know how to comment, but your biggest 2016 picks were both penny stocks which I have been even heard of before. Hexza and jaycorp. I'm sure you paid low pe and good prices for those stocks and enjoyed your big huge profit in your investment. But would you have been willing to keep those stocks for the long term? Would you have added more every quarter into your 2016 investments? No you would have not had the skills or the confidence to.

Small men make small decisions.

Probability, you seem to spend vitriol without any sense whatever. If you have never worked for Mitsubishi epc, George Kent, boilermech then you probably work for some pitiful chinaman engineering firm that never pays for quality work. I am an engineering manager for a multinational company, and I sign off on overtime and outstation pay for my engineers all the time.

Maybe you are not qualified enough to work at a epc?

Obviously, my screener for moat is based on a ratio. Every business is different, which is why I stick to businesses I know. My concept of moat is very simple to understand, if a company is able to grow revenue and earnings consistently for more than 5 years without taking on excessive debt ( again different business have different gearings) or excessive dilution of shares(via esos, warrants, share placements), then that is a sign for me to study deeper on the company.
Anything else
1. Friends/fund manager recommendations
2. Land/asset/cash and equivalent
3. Price to earnings/ price to book/ net asset value

All these are to serve as only a guide and taken with a pinch of salt. They mean absolutely nothing, especially when you are a minority shareholder unable to unlock value.

Ricky yeo: don't be silly. There is a direct correlation between owning too many stocks and having poor performance. The more stocks you have, the more you have to keep track of. The more you keep track of, the higher your error of margin. If you don't believe me, try buying (or even finding) 1000 of your value stocks, all you will have as average performance. Even if you didn't, how do you make sure that you can catalyze distribution of capital to all your 1000 stocks equally? You just can't.

If you don't believe me, we can do the Warren buffet 1 million challenge, you buy 1000 stocks, I'll buy 4. In 10 years let's compare results.

The only people who have different sick recommendations every week are fund managers. And they don't even invest their own money but take your commissions and charge you money to learn how to invest.

Up until 2001, all my value plays, technical plays, call options, put options, warrants all turn to dust. I had to avoid in-laws and wife and friends and hide in Sabah jungle until 2008 to collect money to buy back face. I bought pbb after it has long run up in after cny bonus in 2012. Overpriced then too.

Important thing is, in no time had I ever had the fear my stock was going to come crashing down, the trauma of waking up at 1 in the morning with cold sweats thinking of how to pay back my friends and family is enough for my entire life. Banks and credit cards calling everyday. Margin calls keep hitting.

I'm sure for everyone the most important thing is to not lose money. Most people try not to lose money by buying cheap companies at cheaper prices. I just choose to pay good prices for great ones.

For renong, when someone offers a legally binding offer to buy your stock for 4x market value, if you didn't know better, wouldn't you take the arbitrage value?

For aokam, teh soon seng was the kyy of the day. If you read the valuation reports, they had vertical integration and undervaluation with thousands of time concessions and acres of timber land, it was trading far below price to book and even had a pe of 5 once.

Ekran in 1994 won a bid for a small dam in Sarawak without open tender for 7.5 billion. It was called bakun. Imagine a small company winning such a big contact without open tender. Wouldn't you invest in it? In fact, didn't you do the same thing with jaks? Hoping for that ipp to finish completion.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

I know now.


If I had to choose between layhong and QL in 2017, you know my clear choice. The superb company that commands good valuation. Or the so called value play.

Haha can you teach me how to short in bursa?

Epf bought 2 million shares, Chia brothers bought 6 million shares, it's a highlight stock that will float much higher and faster with guaranteed growth.

Haha you can buy QL or you can ignore QL.

You can't short ql. :)

But i do agree, stockraider has no idea what yinson does or how it does it. I bought my shares at rm1 each somewhere selling 2011+2012 and have night every quarter too till today. I only have around 600k shares in yinson, buy I believe in it every much as I do in QL. I have a 4 bagger here which I know will outperform any of your margin of safety stocks in the long run.

So far I'm still ahead in QL, public bank, yinson and TOPGLOV. I have a 10 bagger in TOPGLOV and ql. I'm fine waiting.

I'll see you in one year.

Hi qqq, I bet to differ, yinson is charter fpso only, their payment is fixed and contractual basis delivery only. Sapura is epcc, they design build maintain etc etc everything. The reason why they are worth 25 cents is because their payment is based on oil price. So if oil price up they make money after a certain barrell sold, and if oil price down then dead duck.

Bumi armada is a close comparison, however their vessel utilization rates of 43% and the contract profit margins is just silly because of their oversized get that they have to sell at a loss and absorb all the maintenance and repairs which is ongoing.

Yinson fpso and osv is running at 90-100% utilization. Basically they are a lean, mean fighting machine which uses only what they need, and gets more ship conversion as their market grows bigger. Right now they can afford to undercut bumi and the other for personally because of how well they are managed, while bumi has to keep selling ships with bad names like Armada kraken.

Looking at bumi Armada order book of 31 billion and comparing to yingson order Book and their management capability, I can basically tell you the story of what will happen 5-10 years from now.

Teareader it's a bearish market, epf just made purchase of 200k shares, the majority other buy another 6 million shares. Luckily choivo thinks ql very overvalued, otherwise next quarter I won't have a chance to buy.

As for YINSON, I don't treat it as a og company. It is more similar to DIALOG, they are just warehouse, transporter and storage for og. Therefore, whether or not oil go up or down, they will still enjoy good margins. And as transport companies always rely on management, they have very good guaranteed order book on hand.

Easier for me to estimate what will happen to YINSON 5 years from now, than a petron or hengyuan with crack spreads that I don't understand and have no idea how to analyze.

Sorry I meant buy at any price.

Obviously because your friends at upper management who buy shares have investment bias. They only buy company share because they thing it is safe. I work there so hot safety of margin.

You do not buy company shares because you work there. You buy shares because you realize your company is far better than the other competitors out there.

Like you say there are many roads to rome. I totally agree! But saying growth investing is not value investing is silly. If I can make 10x profit on my TOPGLOV, QL and I believe soon to be yinson and public bank in 10 years, I don't mind paying premium price for premium companies.

For sslee, I don't mind that he invest in this INSAS ( it is an Arbitrage play, because when the share price equals to asset price of inari, what other value is there in the business? I wouldn't buy INSAS other businesses if they gave it to me for free), but he has to understand that the only amount he can earn is the difference in intrinsic value. Nothing more.

Small peanuts.

It's like shorting a stock ( which no one in bursa can remember thing), if you short hundred percent, the most you can earn is double your money.

If you invest in the growth of a wonderful company the benefits is so much more.

It's just my 25¢. I've invested your way before stockraider, I've trade before using qqq way, and when I was young and stupid I probably wrote more thesis and reports than choivo.

This is the only way that worked in the long term. I sent my daughter to USA for studies thanks to QL. I hold 2m ql shares 2009 until today and didn't sell, and it's not because of but we any price.

I participated in ql growth. I know why it's growing. I can see where it will grow into in the future. And most importantly I know what the competition is doing.

For INSAS, I can't see anything 5-10 years ahead.

The biggest margin of safety is still understanding the business and buying quality assets at fair prices. If you buy lousy businesses just because it is cheap, or you don't understand why the management says and do things differently from what you believe should be the proper way, no matter how valuable the assets are it is no use. They will find a way to flush it down the drain sooner or later.

Just ask Warren on his investment in Decker shoes. Or even Tesco.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/B759C7D8-BF4E-11E4-8BB2-B6B84A5B8359

The difference between you and him is he knows when to sell and why to sell. You only do simple investing. If stock price is lower than assets, cash in hand, pe = value with margin of safety= buy. If stock price is more than that = sell. Or in bursa, don't buy. Can't short.

Do you spend the time to think deeply about your stock? What are it's prospects 10 years from now?

Stockraidet: are you sure bursa is same mechanism with other stock markets? Really? Try shorting bursa stock. Try buying options. Try buying a vanguard index bursa fund. Do you know how many counters have been shut down by Bursa for fraud in it's entire history? Do you know what bursa penalties are? How many ceo's have been sent to prison with bursa assistance? Universal my foot.

I forgot to add one more estimate:

1200 hectares of land in Sabah for palm oil matured.
20000 hectares of land in East kslimantan(5000 matured). Where is the earnings and land valuation on that?

Do you know? I'm sure you don't. Do I know? Probably a little bit. I was there to help commission their palm oil mill in 2012. Then I went and bought even more stock with company bonus.

Now on my take on QL moat, which is how I think you should look at every business analysis first.

Understand your business. Then buy the stock.

1. Why is QL the leading surimi producer in Asia? It's just catching fish and processing it right? No. QL provides microloans to all the local fishermen to buy boats, fuel, nets etc but with the guarantee that any of their catch must be sold to QL ONLY. As most fishermen are poor, guaranteed sales and no risk on borrowing money from banks who need collateral, QL is their only source. This is prevalent in Sabah, and is now catching ground in Vietnam and Indonesia. If you ask yourself why eating seafood is expensive these days, a big reason is because the fishermen no longer sell to you!

2. QL not only does plantation, they also own boilermech which builds their refineries, does their biomass, maintains their plants. How many other palm oil plantations have that kind of vertical integration?

3. QL sells poultry and eggs yes. However more importantly, QL also sells fishmeal, produces animal feed and has a very high level of biological tech compared to others. Something the competition doesn't have.

4. Yes, QL seems overvalued today by i3 investors. But overvaluation becomes undervaluation if the growth never slows down. And as far as I can see, with their appetite for expansion, the demand for QL goods has never reduced and have caught up in their capacity.

5. Successful subsidiaries like boilermech and family Mart are highlighting the brilliance of management at QL. How do you put a value on this? Berkshire was going bankrupt pre buffett, 500 billion during his chairmanship. Management itself can be a moat refer to texchem and layhong. Layhong started in 1983, compare that to QL which was founded in 1987.

For me, my projection is simple:
I paid 28 pe for 1.3 billion with 100 million in net profit. (2009).Today it's doing 3.2 billion with 200 million in net profit. (2017). But the assets growth, the expansion into family Mart, the vertical integration and the monopolies in place continue to amaze me.

You say that growth of QL is fixed single digits based on last 10 years performance. But 10 years ago did they have boilermech? Did they have family Mart? Did they have penetration into Vietnam and Indonesia? What will the future be like? I don't know exactly, but I am confident enough to invest every quarter. As long as the story doesn't change.

Just think on this, any investment you make has a gestation period. I'm sure choivo doesn't do farming, but I have a 20 acre plot of palm oil in sandakan near ql agrofoods shared with my brothers. It took us almost 8-10 years for the palm oil to be fully matured and producing. In that time earnings were basically negative. But once we went through that hump, we were having great returns!

I don't believe in paying for a company at any price. I do believe in investing in a great company at a fair price.

I firmly believe that QL is still just gestating. You may think that paying pe50 is high for QL current performance. But we are not investing in current performance right now are we.

We are paying for the future.

P.s. and as long as we are throwing estimates in the air, in 5 years I'm estimating 500 million in earnings from Vietnam, Indonesia, family Mart and the recovery of palm oil prices. And in 10 years when the crude oil prices go up so high that palm oil gets more usage in commodities, seafood prices have become so high that the only crabs choivo can afford to eat is crab sticks? I'm estimating 1 billion earnings.

But really, do we really know? Previous performance can never guarantee future results. Both for good results, bad results and mediocre results.

Personally I'd sum it up this way.

Choivo is the kind of person who would buy Berkshire when it was a low pe company with a lot of machinery assets and high intrinsic value, basically a cigar butt circa 1962.

I am the kind of person who will overpay 30 million for See's candy ( at pe6, during the 1973 depression when everything was rock bottom), I bought QL in 2009 when it s pe28.

But when Charlie munger told Warren to buy See's Candy even for 30 million (they finally sold for 25), his idea was to pay a fair price for a wonderful business.

Was Charlie and Warren able to calculate sees candy performance to 1.65 billion in profits, 400 million in yearly revenue and 100 million in earnings? No of course not! If it was possible to calculate that, Isaac Newton would have not lost his pants in the stock market. He was the absolute smartest man during his age, and he derived many theories of how to make money from stock market.

What they were able to surmised was the See's Candy moat.
1. See's Candy was a commodity, meaning everyone uses it.
2. In East California, buying See's Candy was equivalent in 1972 to buying a engagement ring for your loved one. In fact, it was equivalent to love!
3. Back in 1972, yes it generates a lowly 4.2 million ebit on 30 million of revenue. However, it used a very small amount of capital expenditure to do so. In fact, in 35 years, it only took 40 million of outside capital to grow to 400 million revenue!

Charlie started with the business opportunities first and the moat, then decided if the price was worth paying for.

Please dont talk to me about lion industries and their antara steel business, because it was nonsense from the get-go. Parkson is a company with zero moat, and you want to imagine I will go into those sectors. I never will, although I laugh seeing you punt into layhong with no ideas about how the business works.

Seriously children with their assumptions, I do hope you didn't invest in those companies back then. If every stock that goes up or down have to take a swing, then that is speculation. And with your 28 stocks in your portfolio, I definitely worry about your ideas of real investment.

Giant and family Mart same business competitors indeed.

Do send me a bill for your stock advice, as I think you need all the help you can get. Maybe you can consider charging and teaching other people how to invest in stocks as well, especially with that saying,

Those who can, do. Those who can't do, Teach. Those who can't teach, teach PE. Or in your case, stock trading successes.

FYI, I'm not the one using margin in my investments, not am I the one using my parents money and my friends money to throw money into stocks.

Oh wait, you are.

Good luck in 2019, and let's compare the performance of your stocks in 2019 versus my stocks. See you at the end of the year.

and just answer me this very simple question: before you said all the chia brothers are selling. could you take a look again after your remarks after christmas? Are they still selling? or did they just buy 6 million shares?

Are they proving a point to you choivo? Or are they just blind as well? Or maybe.. just maybe.. they think as I do. Shareholders and management both are aligned on the true value of QL.

In terms of egotistical, I never started posting in thi3 website until recently, even though I read almost every post and investment book and remember all your figures and explanations.

I started investing since 2003, started making proper money after doing scuttlebutt since 2008.

In all that time I have never had the gall to use other people's money to invest for them, or ask to manage Mr koons assets in an open letter.

Worse still I never asked to do it after only reading and learning about investing a few years without any proper track record.

Luckily I don't need to.

FYI, I do know what maintenance capex is, I work for an engineering firm that does maintenance contracts, upgrades and installations for boilermech and QL. Trust me, when I say I saw QL growth with my own eyes, I really did.

You on the other hand spend 1 day looking at QL financial report and can come up with a sweeping remark saying that it is overvalued at pe50. Brilliant.

Try asking me how much was the 2 pieces of land they bought for capex growth? What was the fair value price of the land? What is all their subsidiaries and locations and the markets they sell to?

Like I said, skin deep knowledge equals skin deep results.

FYI. I never told anyone to buy into RCECAP. I never bought it, and I wouldn't recommend you putting 32% of your net worth into it either. Basically after understanding their business model and looking at the long game, I had a very different view of their long term viability comparing the bigger competitors.

But anyway, your compounded return for your ten bagger will never succeed if you don't compound your returns into RCECAP asap. Because that is how you compound.

Oh wait. You don't have any returns to speak of.

So basically summarizing up all the info into a few short sentences.

You are looking for an arbitrage play. The "intrinsic" value of INSAS is worth far more than the stock price. If you buy it and keep it one day someone will come to be a White Knight and make you rich and happy.

My experience? That will not happen.

Firstly, investing in bursa is very different from investing in NYSE. The crowds are different. There is an ability to short stocks. The investing intelligence and buying power is different.

Now ask yourself 2 simple questions:

1. If there was an obvious arbitrage play, wouldn't the founders of INSAS take it private, earn the obvious difference, cash the profit, rinse and repeat? They are a stockbroking and m&a firm. If got big money to earn, why share it with you instead of triggering a takeover offer? Are they that kind? Or too stupid to recognize the "obvious" value? Why are you the only one to recognize this value? Is epf, tabung haji, temasek all BLIND? Either way the management worries me. You should too.

2. If you were an activist investor with 800 million, would you do a takeover of the company? What would be defense of the owners to stop a hostile takeover and taking their hard earned profit away? Just ask kyy what happened to him from jaks point of view. Who will be crazy enough to do big m&a plays with a company like INSAS? Doesn't the management worry you one bit?

2a. INSAS has all that money but the management of INSAS business is horrible. Hohup is a lousy mini developer in a oversaturated market ( just ask them on their golden something project in Kota Kinabalu next to imago mall, at 1300 psqft in the 2nd poorest state in Malaysia. Ask them how their sales is going.) Why is meliuem buying all the horrible brands, and not going into something like uniqlo, or allbirds, that are market trending and keep losing money. Car rental? Really? What kind of business future are you buying into?

All I can say is: remember why the stock market was created. Not for arbitrage. Not for options. Not for trading.

The original creation of the stock market was for a group of people to share in holding on to the growth of a company and its profits.

In the end, if the company does not grow, there is no point in investing in it.

You do know that ql produces and sells raw materials for those companies to make those frozen food right as well as selling finished goods Right? Surimi is basically seafood paste. Try buying seafood, notice how expensive it is. Try buying ql raw material for your manufacturing process, notice how cheap it is? Do you even know how much ql sells surimi per kg? Who else sells cheaper? Have you talked to any of the frozen food manufacturers and supplier of raw materials?

Skin deep knowledge equals skin deep results.