Obviously the best way is still build business sense for yourself. Buy the stock and wait for kyy, choivo, sslee and Stockraider to come riding in.

Would this mean people like qqq3 is a far smarter trader than them?

And yes I use the term trader because that is what Stockraider is. A trader filling himself into thinking he is a value investor.

I stopped listening to Stockraider when he started comparing stock performance of ql and insas after 9 days of a 2 year future comparison. Without seeing quarterly reports and yearly annual reports he thinks just because because his insas share goes up from 0.67-0.7 it must be better than ql.

His idea of value investing is simply absurd. How he thinks how he acts you know he will buy and sell shares after a few months, then panic selling when recession comes.

But of course he is a master chun chun call millionaire

To be honest SSLee, if you think deeply about it, why did Warren buffet and Berkshire not go around telling everyone what they bought after they bought it. They know the wb effect, the moment they buy everyone will rush in thinking he knows something. In fact they get a special approval from sc not to let anyone know they bought a stock.

But why does kyy spend the time to tell you what he buys right after he buys it? He knows the price will go up, and because he is the big fish everyone joins in to buy on demand, thinking he knows something.

This is the kyy effect.

At the same time when he sells, he doesn't tell you first before hand. He sells first then tells you why it is not a good buy.

It is like Stockraider frontloading his stocks, Calvin tan frontloading his recommendations, all of them see the need to post on capital letters what they bought, why they bought and how they bought.

But do they ever put their money where their mouth is? Do they tell you the amount they have bought, how much shares they bought, when they sold, how much they are selling when they sell?NO!

But they know how to recommend.

Do you see me hanging around in topglove, public Bank, yinson page recommending and posting up buy recommendations?

What would be the motive behind those actions?

The only reason why I started posting is not because I want to run up ql prices ( which is nuts if you think about it at pe50 at your own risk), but it is because I wanted to share some information on investing which I think the Malaysian investors are not training themselve to improve on. Look to the business first. Then the value. Then the timing.

In fact, I believe our bursa Malaysia would be much bigger and more effective if all the local investors can recognized bad companies and pump and dump activities and refuse to invest in those companies.

If you reward good companies with long term shareholdings support and belief, I think in the long run our economy would do well.

It is when the perception that investing in Malaysia is a casino, a gambling den to make quick money that things fall apart.

Haha I'm sorry I'm starting to sound like you. All about religion and ethics. Old men will be old men.

SSLee.

You are very good with numbers and you want exact details. I can accept that. If I said 18%+ on ahlong loans ( which is exactly what unsecured loans are), if I missed a percentage point here and there, if that irks you. Then I apologize. Like I said, I am not good with numbers. But no one ever said you had to be perfect with your numbers to be good in investment.

I repeat be: If we see someone who weighs 300 pounds or 320 pounds, it doesn’t matter – we know they’re fat.

All you need is to understand the logic behind the numbers. If you think rcecap is not an ahlong company then you need to rethink your logic. And if you think all those loans from rcecap is for emergency family loan than you really have another thing coming. Majority of those loans are for frivolous things that they never really needed until they found a lender willing to extend credit.

If you need to borrow money for an emergency, just borrow based on trust. If you trust that person there is no need to extend high credit rates to make it worthwhile. If you don't trust that person, why borrow in the first place?

As for stockraider thinking that any investment in stocks is ok as long as you make money, then my respect for you is below zero.

Investors like you will never do well long term.

Why?

All you have is the habits you cultivate and the character that you observe.

If you build good habits and invest with those habits, your results will reflect that.

If you choose to invest in businessess where the owners and workers earn by victimising the uneducated, the poor, and the addicted, know that the management of those companies usually have reliability issues as well.

You want to be looking for great businessess where the management and workers enjoy going to with every morning, work their hardest for something the believe in.

That is definitely one of my criteria for a wonderful business.

Hi Fabien, that is a very smart attitude to life!

Listen to sifus but don't follow them.

Make up your own mind, and decide on your stock principles based on business growth prospects, not on what the sifus tell you.

Most importantly is to read a lot. As much as you can. Business sense can only be increased by reading and absorbing as many similar companies as you can compare with to see the growth prospects, incoming humps and challenges, and future growth triggers.

Reading up also on Barnes aerospace group might be an interesting parallel. They also have 50% in aerospace, and balance in industrial tooling. You would be surprised at the parallels in their businesses. Obviously one is 1 billion myr, and the other is 3 billion USD, but you get the picture

I repeat my saying,

You can't reinvent the wheel, but you sure can remember a good story.

Fabien, for me I look at it this way, of course I may be wrong, because I dont follow SAM engineering very closely or the airline industry either.

Now that I have more time to digest the aerospace industry, lets look at this:

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xpar/air/quote.html
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ba/quote.html

SAM specializes in manufacture engine casings. Assuming there are 2 engines per A320 neo (which i think brought their sales up), the main rise in revenue was due to deliverables of airbus which delivered on time.

if for a320 NEO we are looking at 386 deliveries this year. As I cant find the breakdown of SAM deliveries into engine casings and revenue gain projection. So I cant really extrapolate which part is the big earning point.

Anyway... you can use broad strokes and exact DCF figures here of the entire lifetime of A320 deliverables, backlog through entire lifetime of plane deliveries, their cost per plane (a320 neo costs 110 million usd, you can fraction it out to the cost per engine casing i guess)

From here you can have a good guess how big the market for SAM will be in the future.

However... if you look at your end customers for example,

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/5099.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3786.jsp
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/C6L.SI/financials?p=C6L.SI

you quickly notice one thing, its a competitive game , where you cant actually build planes to go everywhere. There is always certain routes which are flyable, and AA is good at quickly canceling routes that are not workable. Then they are also selling planes, to reduce over utilization exposure.

Worse problem is, after the fantastic rise is revenue for Boeing and Airbus, they are showing slowing growth and reducing revenue. You can do your own analysis from there.

Aka --> IF APPLE TELLS YOU THEY ARE SELLING LESS PHONES, DO YOU THINK INARI WILL ALSO START TO SELL LESS SEMICONDUCTORS?

Stockraider, do you think I dont buy moderate meaningful reasonable amount? You think i earn 40-50k a month? When I first started, I was only manager earning around 4K+... how to sailang? you teach me?

The difference between you and me is i buy reasonable, moderate amounts every quarter, ever year for 9 years straight. On one stock.

You can call me lucky, I call it understanding the business.

You say hengyuan business very very good, I ask you why Shell sold it in the first place if business damn good. They sold 51% for 66m USD (120 million for the whole thing at below bursa market rate that time?)

You pick a stock go up from RM3 to RM18 you say you are pro. I ask you why would you EVEN consider buying a stock that oscillate that much in 1 year.

You call Hengyuan stock a good buy. I think not.

Luckily you never sailang on hengyuan.

Full disclosure: I did go nuts and sailang 200K in QL 2009. but after is just regular reading of quarterly reports and regular purchases of reasonable, moderate amount every quarter. I dont have the clout of a KYY to go all in and keep buying until become biggest shareholder in a couple of months.

I took 9 years to build my shareholding until now.

Just because you capslock everything doesn't make it true. And since your idea of identifying a growth stock is so shallow which is base only on nta, earnings and revenue, I hope you don't go around recommending and preaching.

If I invest in "growth" the way you do, I long time bankrupt edi.

Sadly, speaking from personal experience here....

SSLEE, if you have never owed money, you would never know the hells of which it can cause.

Late settlement fee.
lawyer fees.
Penalty payments.
Repossesion charges.

all these hidden costs that you dont know will pile up fast and hard.

Tax on the ignorant, indeed.

Why do you think there is a callcenter for credit card debt?

Raider really said that hengyuan at 15 has margin of safety?

Why Master Sifu Stockraider... I thought I could trust you. I thought you knew the meaning of overvalued?

Were you and choivo both buying at the exact same time KYY was selling? Didnt he tell you he was selling?

Margin of safety indeed.

Wow! SSLEE you agree with this? YOU REALLY AGREE WITH LENDING TO IGNORANT PUBLIC AT 18% A YEAR. YOU DONT SEE HOW GAMBLING AND LENDING TO A 20 YEAR OLD KID WHO THINKS HE FOUND FREE MONEY BUT DOESNT REALIZE WHAT 18% INTEREST REALLY MEANS?

I lose all respect for you.

Coming from a poor family and a fellow UM student. I thought you of ALL people would balk at investing in these kind of companies...

You have your margin of safety, I wonder what my margin of safety is?

I think even if ql market cap drop by half I still earning money.

Haha.

Jester, don't forget to support master sifu stockraider and buy his INSAS ya.

Any anger and loses in INSAS you may direct to him.

But if making money, just remember I told you first to buy INSAS ya.

ok yes stockraider sifu. You are the new warren buffet ben graham. your stock picks sure win one!

but how come you keep laughing at jaks? it went from 0.42 now to 0.58

that one no margin of safety? so undervalued now? shouldn't we buy?
qqq sifu already make 20% profit... so much more than me or you right now with insas and ql.

oh gosh? but dare he sailang?

no. Smart men who know they are trading will bet but never bet too big.

those who dont know they are trading but think they are value investing like sslee and raider are those who will hurt in the long run.

EXACTLY!

You also forgot the part where graham was applying his value investing theory during the stock market crash of 1929. In the end he still believes in the concept of efficient markets. same like mr stockraider here.

if you believe in efficient markets value investing,cigar butt investing? you follow ben graham... and stockraider.

if you believe in business growth value investing, you follow charlie munger and warren bufett. you dont be cheap when buying

and also this.
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/ben-graham-totally-discredits-value-investing-at-the-end-of-his-career

and also this.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bengraham.asp

in a market recession, people like stockraider and calvin tan platinum balls will shrink.

Those like warren buffett who have their eye on wonderful companies... they start buying.

Sure thing raider.

It sounds so possible doesnt it. I'm sure you made many millions, and never had to cut loss ever.

just keep buy and sell buy and sell.

OK lah.

I respect you as STOCK SIFU la.

multi bagger king, every in and out sure money sure win!

I'm just putting it up here.

0.67 1st january you put in 40% of your networth. Hold for 2 years see how la. NTA 2.54 right? using your metrics, you will immediately sell at rm1.9? Good la. See how it goes in 2 years.

waiting to treat master sifu raider some good old BKT in Klang.

Excellent, do give them a call and post on this page. The first step to learning is to never believe everything.

Question everything.

Learn yourself and don't follow what the sifus ask you to do.

FYI, if HARTA and TOPGLOV hit pe12? I might just increase my margin account and go all in.
Probably HARTA, it's growth and profit margins has been phenomenal.

But I am of course not promoting using margin loan to uneducated public (and Jon choivo).

You should only consider margin loan when a wonderful business is selling at very very (very) fair valuation.

Problem is defining that wonderful business.

If you stick to the fact that:

99% of businesses out there is crap that you should avoid,

I think you will do alright.

I still don't get those who have 30+, 120 stocks in their portfolio. That's insane!

How do you sleep at night? I wouldn't be able to.

Hi lazycat,
I may be wrong, because I haven't been using margin for a while. But I think you can refer here.

https://ringgitplus.com/en/share-margin-financing/Maybank-Share-Margin-Financing.html

FYI, this is guaranteed money we are taking about, the shares in bursa have a limit down rule, so if the share price dropped too low, you will be forced to do margin call.

There is no way to lose money doing this kind of loans. It is guaranteed 100% margin of safety. The system automatically sells shares for you, unless you tell your remiser.

Charging 25% lending to risky assets yes. Margin of safety.
Charging 4% for fixed deposit. High margin of safety.
Charging 1.25% for securities margin loan. Highest margin of safety. Absolutely zero risk with liquid collateral in shares that you can immediately offload at 72% margin call.

Makes business sense?

Dear sslee, please check your information again.

I invest in public bank, and they do banking in a very direct way.

You look and RCECAP again, look at their lending base, look at their customers they are lending to and how they are going about borrowing to them. In the annual report they actually say they go visit face to face to government servant and get them to borrow money to fund lifestyle.

Now look at the rates of borrowing. If you borrow money to uneducated public at 5%, 10% rates I am ok. If you start borrowing to them at huge amounts at 18%+24% rates you are just being a loanshark.

Only a loan shark would borrow money to people who can't get loans anywhere else at high rates, double their investment in 3 years with government support. Karma in the form of npl will definitely come back to bite them in the ass in the long term. Only a fool would believe you can borrow money to people who can't pay it back a good idea.

During the financial crisis, Warren buffet wanted to buy a business. The only lenders were from Kuwait. He decided not to take it, knowing that borrowing is easy, but when it comes time to pay he had to convert the dollar to dinar. And only Kuwait will tell you how much the exchange rate is.

Lazycat, it's been years since I used margin. I think I still have about 5 million in approved margin from QL. I think it's around 1.25% if above 1 million with share collateral/fixed deposit

If I could give rookies just one advice.

Investing back in the older days without internet you had to call your remiser and trust him to put the shares purchase in for you.

Imagine now that you dont have a stock ticker. You don't have a financial report. And someone just went up the door to your house with a business proposal.

How do you go about it? You never ask how much it is worth? It's crazy asking someone how much they think it is worth selling for, is it a fair price etc.

You ask basic questions,
1. What are you selling
2. Who is buying
3. How do you make more to sell
4. Where can you find more buyers
5. How much are you selling your business to me
6. Why sell it to me
7. What problems do you find in the business
8. Who is your competitors
9. Who is the biggest competitor, what is he doing differently
10.Why are you better than your competitors

This is my 10 commandments to start the very beginning of every stock investing. Once you see satisfied with these answers.

Then you go to the fundamental analysis of financial reports etc.

Once you have decided to buy, then you go to the technical part of things.

All the sifus here, from stockraider to sslee, always seem to start the other way around.

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

Now I'm sure there are many ways to skin a cat, and I'm sure stockraider sifu has made many millions with his value cigar butt investing methods. But actual application of value investing in NYSE and Bursa is very different. No close monitoring if SC here. A few big sindicates preying on water fish here buying penny stocks.

Our retail investors here is just so raw and new, one article from kyy and Calvin tan, every rookie like sslee rushes in to buy big.

With half assed ideas on the real meaning of intrinsic value and margin of safety, they get burnt over and over.

I don't need to recommend you to buy any stock. The stocks that I hold are all market leaders, expensive and have run up so high.

But to the rookie: I'm sure no one has ever asked you to buy things like QL, topglov, public bank, yinson. Why? They are boring and expensive. High PE. Why bother watching paint dry?

You always get recommendation to buy penny stocks from raider and Calvin, low PE high cash, disappointing long term results.

Please understand why. The game in bursa is so cowboy it's sad.

I'm already mid late 50s. I have nothing left to prove.

If I can do anything, it would be to give some insight to be investors on how to do proper investing.

Raider,
This is called timing the market. How do you know at what price to buy and sell? If like this kind of investing, you always Chun Chun right timing buy low sell high? Never lose money? Buy any stock also Chun chun? If you always 100% Chun Chun number like Calvin tan sure win why even bother buy stocks? Just go and buy Toto 6/47 sure Chun Chun kena!

I don't know how to invest like this. I always buy high, can never get it right every time. But what I can do is find the right stock, and follow up. Every quarter I top up. After salary top up. After company bonus I top up. After dividend in I top up. After commission in I top up. I can top up from 200k to 2 million shares in 10 years in ONE stock is purely on understanding the business growth prospects. I buy at the end of every quarter report at a price I think is fair.

This is real investing. Not some made up magic chart mirror.

You can do meh? Buy 200k INSAS low, sell high. But 500k INSAS low sell high. Buy 1 million low sell high. Is that even a feasible method? Your balls made of platinum?

Come on lah,

I've tried it your way. It doesn't work. Kyy does it your way. Look where it went in the end.

I've been in the market for almost 20 years.

I no longer do stupid, especially when I'm never lucky.

>>>>>>Do not get the misconception that value investment cannot get goocomparable return like growth stock QL and scientex loh...!!

If u r a value investor who have bought insas in 2009 at rm 0.20 and sold it in 2014 for rm 1.20, u also can get a 6 bagger return over 5 yrs which is comparable to the return of ql or scientex mah...!!

In fact in 2014, if u look in the chart of insas it is like QL chart today mah....!!
So don be too happy...this QL current good performance could be similiar to insas good performance in 2014 loh...!!

As for raider of course did not benefit with a 6 bagger return on insas, but raider did benefit on 2.5 to 3.0 bagger return buying in 2012 at average of rm 0.42 and selling around rm 1.20...this is at least 2.5 baggers over period of 2 yrs mah...!!

Raider think can repeat a similiar feat on insas by buying rm 0.67 n perhaps selling at rm 1.34 loh...!!!

Hi lazycat, for pentamaster, I have just finished reading and compared with comps like vitrox, keyence, Teledyne and others.

I am very very worried. I may be in error, but I find the company very very weird. Here is what I think:

1. Why is a Malaysian company moving all of its assets and business into a investment holding company in the Cayman islands? And it is being audited by Grant Thornton, which I don't like at all. They used to use the big 4, now no longer
2. The business prospects are very impressive, even more than Vitrox, for a company that doesn't even have any tax breaks incentives.vitrox had a ten year free tax incentive from mida.
3. Why did they list also in Hong Kong share market? For what purpose this PIL?
4. For a company that does 400 million in equipment sales, I couldn't download or read a single datasheet or catalogue from it's main website. I couldn't even find a single product code number to compare with other products in the market.
5. It seems more a company interested in doing financial exercises than in growing shareholder wealth with good products.
6. Why are they doing project management for a development project?

I find this company to be very very weird. I may be wildly wrong. It may be a brilliant trailblazer.

Be very careful if you have real money invested in this company.

Dear sslee,

I have a feeling you might have followed kyy into his investment into JAKS and have been burnt thereafter.

But to be honest there is never anyone to blame but ourselves. We trusted the sifus based on word alone and lost money based on our preconceived notions of fairness.

Trust me, I know exactly how you feel. Teh soon seng was my kyy idol during my early days, and I was full of anger and upset feelings when I lost 120k in the stock market. In the 90s that was a huge sum.

But emotion is the only component in stock picking that is unnecessary.

There is always something to learn.

Even from qqq and kyy.

My advice?

Item 1 in my buku 555 back then
1. Never trust other people to choose your stocks for you. Always follow your own stock.

Penta master seems very interesting. Let me read through the annual reports and compare it with similar companies and I'll get back to you.

I can't comment much on chinwel, it feels like your usual pump and dump stock to me. Good earnings and profits but business is just not growing. Some more it falls in my penny stock bin, so I don't really know how to value those properly.

For mbmr, the last I did my projections, business wise in Malaysia long term it will only average around max 2.2 billion revenue with low margins. It's not a business that can scale abroad well nor can it compete with China speed and efficiency. I don't think it has good long term growth prospects worth holding.

Hi lazycat,
I reject all valuation of vice counters off hand, so I don't even waste my time in those.

Got Lotte olefin basically it's raw material cost it's tied down to oil prices, so if it stays down Lotte will always have good margins. I don't know if the plant maintenance is done yet and the capacity dropped because of it. But I'm sure if the capacity goes back to normal levels, your share price will recover due to the capacity and margins. Who doesn't like a nice dividend here and there

On an off side, as this also happened to me before. I believe lending money to financially uneducated people at very high interest rates is a sin and a horrible action.

This is a tax on the ignorant. Bullying and robbing ignorant people and turning them into slaves is detestable to me.

I don't invest in gaming, vice counters. And I feel that investing in companies that I realized is basically a government ah long in name is a horrible thing to do, turning people into slaves that work just to pay their debts.

I believe in karma.

I can do better with my investing skills.

How can anyone hate value?

But isn't the inverse also true? If you discard 50 PE stocks just because it is expensive, wouldn't you miss almost all the FANG stocks? They have all at one point or another but very high pe levels.

Or in bursa case,
You have 32% committed to RCECAP and 5% committed to aeoncredit. If this is true simply because of a valuation based simply on price/earnings ratio, wouldn't you have missed 10 years of value creation multiples?

But if you applied business sense in identifying the fallacy of lending money to the 40 bottom wage earners at very high rates of interest where if your lending pool becomes big enough you will definitely be doing subprime lending ( assuming government officers will always be able to pay off their high interest rate loans) with disastrous long term results.

Compare that with credit card lending to disposable income public who buy goods at aeon and top up with rm100 for a 2 year extended warranty. Free money. Very low risk.

Which company do you think deserves a high PE and shareholder confidence? I'd buy aeoncredit over RCECAP in an instant.

>> Posted by lazycat > Jan 15, 2019 10:54 PM | Report Abuse

i think if you invest nestle instead of ql in year 2009 , your return would be much higher now


I think not. How much of Nestle PE53 do you think is a measure of the name brand with retail investors versus it's ability to execute new business strategies. Also it is the most thinnest traded stock in Bursa 70% owned by parent company.

I mean, why would the investing crowd give QL a business with low dividend payout 50 pe? Are they insane? At least Nestle gives a growing consistent dividend to it's shareholders. Why reward ql share price up after poor performance in that may quarter?

I kid.

I see far far more growth triggers in QL future than in Nestle Malaysia.

Yes exactly what I feel as well. For me if the price was low enough, the storage business is the exact reason why I think it is a long term but and hold. The EPCC is the reason why I stay away...

qqq3 for a self proposed trader is also someone looks at business sense.

But in the end why should there be competition?

Use your business sense to understand the long term prospects
Use your fundamentals to evaluate margin of safety and intrisic value
Use your technicals to find that shooting star and the best time to buy

I don't get that part. All investing in VALUE investing.

How could it not be?

The only thing that matters is I buy a stock today because I think it will appreciate in VALUE tomorrow.

If it doesn't, either you made a mistake, the management made a mistake, or God gave you a mistake.

Number 5 on my wish list would probably be DIALOG. Now that is a magnificent company with quality management.

However, I have never had the chance to invest in it at prices that I would consider to have my level of margin of safety.

I'm not stupid you know. I do know when something is overvalued and it's growth prospects within the 10 year period or more is unclear. Those I won't buy. No matter what. But every quarter I still follow up on it.

But here is a formula.

Any stock, no matter how small the growth is, if it grows infinitely over time, will have a 100% margin of safety if you buy it today.

Am I wrong?

No? But not knowing that you need to exercise scuttlebutt to test your analysis judgement.

Just because I won't buy INSAS today for 0.50 cents doesn't mean I won't buy INSAS tomorrow for rm15. But ONLY if multiple quarters of excellence and certain criteria fits my expected story.

For the answer to that question, may I refer the humble rubber tree.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hevea_brasiliensis

Basically it is a plant that grows best in a tropical it subtropical environment. Any form of frost will basically kill the tree.

So, even if the market increases, the space to plant rubber trees are limited. Especially for natural rubber products.

Anybody can make booze and sell it. No so natural rubber. ( I won't go into synthetics, those are different business altogether)

Now Malaysia seems very corrupt to you and me, but the equator line which produces these rubber trees most efficiently like India, South America, South East Asia are full of turmoil and difficulty in doing efficient business.

Malaysia is actually very stable economy. TOPGLOV and HARTA just happen to be the most efficient lowest cost producer with enough rubber tree plantations supply to be able to produce and sell high quality rubber gloves efficiently with enough profits to add m&a activities, r&d activities and economies of scale that it makes it very hard for an upstart to break in.

And in the medical field, if you are a doctor handling disease and blood on a daily basis, do you really think they will mess around with what gloves they wear? Especially when the box is already very cheap? We are not selling disposable iPhones here.

Basically what I am trying to say is, when you visit the prostitute, other than the girl herself, wouldn't you want to buy a box of Durex instead of some no name brand?

HARTA has this kind of quality with their nitrile gloves. TOPGLOV, less.

Now I'm not saying that one day the market share will drop, even Nokia died to apple losing to Android.

But I'd like to think the future of the rubber gloves industry is far more predicable than say a tech company.

Who bought friendster, Snapchat and Twitter! Not me. I don't even have Facebook.

Stockraider, now you have me interested, what is this 40% in growth and quality holdings that you speak of?

Please do share here what stocks you bought and how long you have held it.

Let's see what kind of margin of safety you speak of.

https://youtu.be/63zIApwfzQI

Fast forward to number 11 for Charlie Munger and Warren buffet idea of margin of safety.

Yes, sslee,

The wertheimer family also came down to the annual meeting, and at that point Warren was gratitude enough to explain that they were one of the 5 pillars of Berkshire.

Now, do you know WHY Warren buffet bought iscar?

10 points and full marks if you can do that without referring to someone else's analysis!

For HEVEA, focus lumber, and evergreen I group it all within the same category. These are all penny stocks with high volatility, good cash position but no long term growth plan on view. If you ask yourself, where will HEVEA expand to in 5-10 years you know as well as I do they have no growth triggers or anything in the pipeline.

Pump and dump stock, trade at your own risk.

And malls! Avoid any developer building malls as a matter of principle! Avoid them for they are the black plague!

As for scientex I think it is a very very smart company, although both in industries which I don't like.

It is not a good time to be a developer, but if you have to be a developer, it is best to sell cheap landed housing which public can afford ( rumah mampu milik) or to concentrate on shoplots, which can generate higher rental yield psqft than condos, which people are now realizing are bad deals which benefit only developers. If you buy a 700k condo, which can rent out for only 3k a month, and buy a 3 story shoplots for 1.8 million, which can rent out 10k per month, which would you choose? Which has more room to increase in value?

Scientex does both of these, which is brilliant. Condos, not so much.

The stretch film manufacturing, which does 1.9 billion revenue on 1.6 billion cost of sales, is going to be a business that will grow quite well in the long run, giving a lot of leeway to company growth prospects. It is very low profit, and in a business with no moat, which I don't really like. But it has good management, which goes a long way. ( Just ask Warren buffet who took over dying Berkshire, sold is textiles business and bought an insurance business 2 years later)

However, Hong Leong owner had told his bankers not to borrow money to developers, and for good reason. I feel the same way too.

I will probably, maybe invest in a property company 10 years from now, but right now I avoid them like the plague.

Cheers!

For Sam engineering, it is a company based it's factories and plants in Penang, ergo usually led, semiconductors and hard disk drive. I personally don't like this business, as I don't see any long term future in manufacture of drives. As someone who started with floppy disks on my 186, then moved to hdd, then the move to solid state, I have a good friend who worked with Seagate. He was retrenched. I realized the tooling industry is not very amenable to change with new equipment expenses and long term return. Especially if your equipment and entire manufacturing methods change almost overnight.

For it's aerospace division, the only company that I have looked at before was Boeing, Airbus and Barnes aerospace. My take on this: the aerospace business is dominated by Boeing and Airbus and they have new and old engines to be maintained. It does not favor the MRO suppliers and market. By doing a comparison of the business in Barnes and Sam you see a very clear similarity. There are only a limited amount of planes that need to be replaced and maintained every year. And each new growth will be driven by new and different types of planes, meaning new upgrade in capex, lower margins and most importantly, an inability to grow organically because best competing prices are always wherever is nearest to the planes. It's a very standardised business, and cost of export hampers growth.

Then again, if it wasn't everyone would be sending engine casing from plants in China, UK and US.

Personally, it's a interesting business, but the profit margins compared to Barnes aerospace division gives me a skip.

I still think it's a fine business with ok prospects 5-10 years from now, but I'd rather look for companies with either high growth and low profits, or lower growth with high profit earnings, while protecting shareholder value. But I do like to buy companies with a clear business advantage ( like boring and Airbus), or superior tool manufacturing model. I don't see that for sam within the next 5 years.

Hi pputeh, aeoncredit is a good buy! My advice is if the story of aeonco bhd doesn't change, it may be a good idea to continue holding.

Just that when you do quarterly analysis, you need to understand the business of aeonco tightly, as they are correlated. Because they split the business into 2 parts ( similar to how Citibank was split into good assets and bad assets), you have to remember the story that as the assets and supermarkets of aeonco grows, so will the lending base of aeon credit.

Aeon credit is the best lending of all, they charge directly to credit cards which is under the bank provisioning so you don't have to worry about bad debt. Then they sell high interest rates and high premiums for nonevents like 2 year insurance warranty.

If I had know about aeon years ago ( they don't have any branches in Sabah and Sarawak), I might have bought. As it is, I don't see them doing aeoncredit for senq, Harvey Norman and the rest.so we need to monitor aeonco closely.

But I do still follow the performance every quarter. If the story changes, I'll be the first to join you in!

Cheers and good luck investing!

I deem penny stocks to be anything below RM500 million market cap. As anything below this amount is either a business that is too young or too small for you to make an intelligent analysis (with exceptions), or it is too easy to buy a huge block, generate euphoria and greed, and run out with a 5-10% gain.

Do you really want to play this kind of zero sum game where the late game is everyone hates your guts?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4149368-discounting-future-cash-flows-buffett-munger-approach

This also sums up how I feel about investing theses days. You could learn about margin of safety, stock valuation and the entire important philosophy of the intelligent investor in 1 chapter. Yes, that is 30 minutes of reading. Once you have the basics, the rest of simply reading up on as many financial reports you can find and understanding what the numbers tell you about the business.

When you pay 4-5k on an investing course, the sifu can actually share to you the most important tenets of investing in 30 minutes. In ta, it is basically volume analysis, momentum analysis, trends analysis and support and resistance of charts.

But if you pay 4-5 k for 30 minutes what would be the point? Therefore the sifu will start introducing to you complicated terms like Fibonacci, simple moving average 20 day, 50 day, 200 day. Exponential moving average, RSI, TSI,macd, Bollinger bands. They then proceed to sell you specialized indicators which is backdated to make a profit for the last 20 years, but never seem to work out in the future ( or Black swan event)

In the end, use too much indicators and you see the wrong thing. Value things in the wrong way.

The ones that succeed (in ta majority of the time) are those that understand the 30 minutes basics of technical analysis.

TA is about 2 things
1. Understanding market psychology. Fear and greed.
2. Ta is about using past price/volume movements to predict future events

Best application of ta( business sense of how they really earn money)
1. Small penny stocks, volatile stocks with some resemblance to fundamentals.
2. Pump and dump
3. People selling and giving stock recommendations where they can buy first before you and sell after everyone has gone in.

Hence, once you understand what the game is, you are forced to buy 100-120 counters for short periods because the psychology is all about pump and dump .

I merely wish to advise investors on a better way, a more effective way of finding and supporting a management that wishes to grow shareholder value in the long run. Instead of also playing the pump and dump game.

In summary, learn to build a story. Understand the business. Then get into the nitty gritty of the business, the valuations, the profits, the assets, the revenue growth...

because if you don't have a good story, your financial investment could end up in smoke just like that.

3iii, I have quietly read this promotion too. Calvin did promote PMCorp by saying it will be worth 50 sen.

Luckily, he did not say where this will be or when will it be.

So, you know I know la.

Buy INSAS. lol.

I think this is enough. Any and all information shared will be like pearls thrown before swine. Only thing to be done is to revisit this forum 2 years from now, and relearn the lessons of old.

Everything here said in the end is just speculation and view of mind based on previous results.

I hope all the best here, I don't know any of you in real life but I wish no one here any harm or loss in their investments.

I do not do IDSS of INSAS so I have nothing to gain.

I am not long a single share of INSAS so I have nothing to lose.

I promise to shake sslee hand 2 years from now and a offer of free Bak kut teh to both CharlesT and stockraider should MNRB and INSAS performance better than QL 2 years from now ( share price+ dividend, not nta).

And I promise not to be too harsh in my criticism should stockraider and calvin tan bring their followers to the wrong stock.

Have a good week everybody. You'll not hear me critique INSAS again ( except in January 2020 and January 2021).

stockraider you lost all of my confidence when you said INSAS has been growing and consistent profitable growth without losses for 10 years straight.

Whatever you say from this point on should and must be ignored.

Dear Sslee,

if that is the way you feel, then you have nothing more to learn. You have mastered all the investing skills that took me 20 years to learn.

Maybe one final thing,

the word objectively and DCF are 2 mutually exclusive things. DCF ( I assume you are talking about discounted cash flow analysis) is the most subjective thing I have ever heard and used. I use it very often to calculate, but only on a relative basis, as you can put any form of vindication to prove a company cash flow growth.

you have to apply subjectively:

1. discount rate ( do tell me what I should put in for this figure, as using NYSE discount rate into bursa stocks has been suicide for me. I have tried all sorts of WACC, risk free rates and beta and have found a figure that works for me. what figures do you use?)
2. growth assumptions (which work best for companies with fixed growth like manufacturing, commodities like QL and INARI, and horrible for investment companies like INSAS. How do you judge? Do you listen to the CEO for his growth assumptions? or just build your own based on past data?)
3. terminal growth rate? ( you need to understand the business to even be a judge of this.)

Using this method, everyone can look at the same stock and come out with the different results.

Understand your business first. Then go use your DCF and FA and TA to decide on INSAS long term prospects.

I just hope you are right in the end.

Its not my money being stuck here for 5-10 years.

* If investing in DCF and NTA was that simple, would any smart man be losing money?