Sslee is far far smarter, at least he also looks at the business point of view and the net profit. For me to value your items let me put it into perspective: Now that i have a closer look at insas:

1. What is INSAS m&a securities market share of investors? how fast is it growing, how fast are its competitors (TA, JUPITER, MAYBANK, HL,) in fact, skip that, just take insas m&a securities and compare it to rakuten securities. for scuttlebutters, which service do you use? do you use insas? if you dont, why not? will you use insas margin loans and services ins the future?

2. insas credit and leasing. they do a lot of mezzanine financing and development project financing. if even hong leong and public bank BALK at lending to developers and leave banks liks mbsb to do mezzanine and project financing. just compare the performance of developer lenders like mbsb to know the long term performance of insas credit & leasing. the key thing to learn for banking is that it is very low margin, and it only work if you have huge capital to play with. thats why majority of banks have a saving account program, because that is free money to borrow out. Does insas have free money to play with that they do not need to pay off (preferred shares, interest expenses etc) 1 billion ringgit in cash is barely enough to grow (refer rcecap)

3. past performance does not equal future results. yes midvalley was a steal, but in your 10 years of monitoring insas have they ever bought more high value growth building with that 900 million cash? in fact, try selling those buildings in this depressed market, will you get fair value for them? just like trying to sell you 0.69 insas shares for rm 3. Any takers?

4. inari shares? try offloading 20% of inari shares, do you think you can get fair value for them when big investors are not buying it from you for rm2.5? in the end it is liquid but not cash. If insas management decides to hold on to inari even when you spot bad weather ahead, it will drop from 2.5 to 1.41. And there is nothing you can do about it as a minority shareholder. As an investor in INSAS, you should not be worried about the value of inari, but more of the question of what insas is going to do with using the value of inari in growing insas share price and dividend increase. A simple recourse, sell inari shares, buy back insas shares and increas divided for insas shareholders. This is not being done, are the management reasons for this inligned with insas shareholder value. I say no.

5. anyone who buys shares in a property developer like hohup with margins that they do is doing something wrong. I could throw a rock and hit a developer with better net margins. even CalvinTan sifu could give you a list of 10 property developer stocks with better profit margins. And why not? With 350 million in borrowings to do their property management (sales of their goldedn wave in sabah, KK at rm1300 psqft is not doing well) what profit margin can you find when they are paying heavy interest payments. and answer me this, how much is omesti paying hohup to rent their office space?

6. that cash is not cash in the regular sense of financial reports. You should use it the same way as valuing a bank, it is a liability, a finished product that insas sells via its m&a securities, credit & leasing. oxygen to fund its margin loans, executables, and more importantly underwrite an ipo. For example, in 2014, m&a securities did an ipo for carimin petroleum where they have to underwrite and make sure there are enough buyers for carimin stock. to do this, they sold preferred shares and warrants (raised 174 million), a sum of which they used to execute this stock ipo. Now, how often do you get insas to do your ipo's for you? only for small companies and low risk. And there is always a risk involved in underwriting. If things go south, do you think it becomes just cash again?

for more learning here is a good read

https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/annual-reports/2017-annual-report.pdf

note how much more detailed nyse requires their annual reports to be? notice how simple insas statements are.

stockraider, just taking net assets as a measure of company performance is laughable. and stop lying to public:

INSAS just posted losses in this quarter
26-Nov-2015 30-Sep-2015 47,306 -25,726 -28,279 -29,021
28-Aug-2013 30-Jun-2013 88,471 -9,653 -5,328 -7,560
30-Aug-2012 30-Jun-2012 61,443 -17,724 -15,887 -14,030
29-Nov-2011 30-Sep-2011 73,505 -18,388 -19,318 -19,212

INSAS 10 YEAR UNINTERRUPTED GROWTH AND PROFIT? QL has never posted a losing quarter in 20 years.

PLEASE STOP RECOMMENDING SHARES BASED ON LIES.

Taken from page 4 of fintec annual report:
The financial year ended 31 March 2018 has in many ways been a meaningful year to our Group. It
is meaningful as it marks our 10-year anniversary since our listing on the MESDAQ Market of Bursa
Securities (now known to us all as ACE Market of Bursa Securities) on 12 December 2008. No doubt,
the decade has brought about many challenges to the Group, but the important thing is that we
have persevered. So much so that we have grown from a Group with net assets of RM27.1 million
in 2008 to RM185.4 million as at the end of our financial year 2018. I leave itt up to you to calculate fintec net assest growth percentage.

Haha finally, I was wondering when somebody would come over and promote FINTEC as the new INSAS.

Look! It is an incubator with 200 million in assets selling at only 42 million.

It's nta is crazy!, It's got lots of cash, it owns well running pubs and bars in KL and it does everything from biotech, to oil and gas to many many things. Including fintech.

They are doing esos for 0.10 cents, and it's been snapped up by all it's staff!

And some more share price is only 0.07 cents. How wonderful!

The margin of safety for this company must be brilliant.

And if I sell my QL shares I can get 25%-30% of this wonderful company!

Best thing is, it's revenue for record quarter is 2 million, but gain from sales of marketable securities which they don't need to pay income tax have them a net profit of 40 million! Isn't that wonderful? 2000% margin.

Stockraider, what now you want? Got nta, got depressed share price. This stock with at least rm0.30 cents!

Buy buy buy!

P.s. this is pure sarcasm. The reasons not to buy FINTEC is even more apparent than the reasons not to buy INSAS. Those who are not smart enough to value stocks should stop recommending them.

That was a rethorical question you soochai,

If everyone is not going to be a soochai like you are, then who will pay you rm1.50 for you shares? Nobody, because all the penny stock investors are cheap like you.

Ergo. Value trap

Exactly my point, what is the value of INSAS other businesses apart from inari...

That is the real reason why no one is willing to pay up for INSAS.

If inari= INSAS,

INSAS would be selling at rm4-5 by now.

Understand???

If still don't understand why INSAS is selling below nta at such a huge discount, then really nothing more to say.

I apologize.

Stockraider is master investor.
INSAS is the Berkshire Hathaway of Malaysia.
Numoni is going to become a 6 billion dollar company.
Dome coffee is going to overthrow Starbucks in 2020.
Pacific car rental is going to buy over grab.
Inari will be a 15 billion dollar Malaysia tech marvel.

Buy, buy, buy.

P.s. tomorrow I sell all my QL shares buy your INSAS.


P.s.s scrap that idea, we still have that 2 year long term bet on INSAS and QL STOCK performance + dividend. No extra points awarded for nta growth.

Stockraider storytime and real world application are very different.

Many investors bought INSAS at rm1, rm0.9, 0.8 and proceed to hold for 3-5 years with paper losses using your EXACT same thought patterns. This has been done since 2015 every year sometime brings this up. At the same time you can buy inari, high PE growth stock and do very well for yourself. Or you could have bought QL and do even better for yourself. The point is all your idea of nta and margin of safety is useless if you don't know the business. You can have rm15 nta and it would mean nothing to you as a minority shareholder if you cannot have stock performance or dividend growth. It is worse when the majority shareholder or fund managers also does not share your confidence.

The only reason this escapes you is the single fact that no one including yourself stockraider is willing to pay rm1.5 or more for INSAS.

Why? Why are you not willing to pay 1.5 for a stock you so firmly believe is worth rm3. Please tell me that. Just a simple answer to a simple question. I know it is worth nta rm3. I do know value investing, I know you are trying to buy cigar butts lying on the ground. And yes there is a significant margin of safety, if you paid 1.50 you will get 100% profit if INSAS sells at nta.

You know why? just because INSAS is undervalued, has wonderful nta does not make it a wonderful company. If investing is simply just a ratio of nta, then it would be very simple to make money in the stock market.

But it is not.

Same opposite reason, you did not invest in topglove, QL, public bank and yinson because you think painting is only about 3 primary colors.

As long as PE entire than 30, it is immediately a bad stock.

Too bad, Amazon is a trillion dollars company which you never invested in.

I don't know why I bother reading anymore, Calvin is a master in saying irrelevant things.

He say Mr market undervalue INSAS, but this is not a one year thing it 2 year thing, INSAS has been undervalue for a very long time.

Then he say QL is overvalued, but 2009 he never bought, 2013 he never bought, 2017 also he never bought. For 9 years I've been holding QL stock and it has been overvalued.

His carimin 5 year performance is gruesome.

His bjcorp 5 year performance is gruesome.

Almost every single stock he picks is gruesome long term.

He say he is a value investor, but nothing he buys is valuable long term.

I mean if master Calvin is really a sifu, why doesn't he recommend QL in 2009,2013,2014-2017? Why doesn't he double down every quarter on good performing stocks like inari, and keep recommending losers like INSAS.

And mark my words, for all the nta and profit and useless gestures of INSAS, the only 2 metrics that mean anything to minority shareholder, long term stock performance and dividend growth, INSAS is sorely lacking.

Just look at the 5 year stock performance and dividend growth of his INSAS, it is just horrible.

I could literally put my money in inari and still be rewarded better. In fact, I could put my money into FD over 5 years and still make more money than INSAS shareholders.

Rather than keep promoting INSAS, just one article on why the investing public is not "investing" long term in INSAS would be far more useful.

But sifu Calvin doesn't know, does he? Especially since he doesn't hold any stock in INSAS, and doesn't plan on buying any.

"If you can't buy a stock without being ready to own it for 10 years, you should be holding that stock for 10 minutes." - Warren Buffett

" If you can't make a reasonable analysis of a company revenue and business growth prospects 5 years from now, you probably don't understand that business well enough. Stay away. You don't have to buy every stock out there."

Dear sslee,

For the answer to that question, you only have to look at historical data,
Date. Revenue. Net profit
31-Mar-2018 784,427 46,098
31-Dec-2017 892,018 63,097

Drop of revenue, drop off net profit. Share price goes up. Do you notice the resilience of QL? That is because everyone looks beyond just nta, earnings, profits, revenue and looks at business performance, investment growth and execution of business strategies.

Meanwhile, for INSAS bulls, if Apple has guided towards a slowdown, and you know for a fact sales of inari is going to reduce in the coming months,

How do you think it will affect INSAS?

Everyone makes mistakes, but it is those who fall in love with their stock that refuses to hear outside advice.

Even I am not in love with my QL, every quarter I look at the financial report and make my decision. If it remains the same I buy. If it doesn't, I review.

Believe me, the moment the story changes, you need to be aware enough and nimble enough to sell.

INSAS is a stock which has never changed its story, 5 years ago, same today, pretty much same story 5 years from now.

Management will not buy back stock, is barely giving a dividend, financing it by selling inari shares.

What do you have to look forward to?

Well said. When a stock is cheap, look for the reason a stock is cheap.

If a stock is cheap for a temporary reason, then it becomes value investing.

If a stock is cheap for a permanent reason, then it becomes a value trap.

When you look at the situation if INSAS, you come to the question:

When can I reasonably expect the temporary undervaluation of INSAS to be resolved to it's proper price?

If your answer is I don't know when it will resolve, how it who will resolve it, or why would they?

Then you are better off not owning INSAS.

My belief had always been if you want to sell a share, use it to buy a better one. INSAS sells inari shares for no other purpose than to book a profit. Where does the earnings go to?

1. Buy more cars for rental?
2. Buy more brands for retail?
3. Buy more fintech?
4. Sengemics? Really, if you were a biotech firm, would you open in Singapore or in a forgotten, talentless country like Brunei? Spending USD 11m in Brunei is pointless. Might as well open a DNA sequencing firm in miri. It's cheaper, uses myr and has the same resources as Brunei. Which is nothing.
5. Numoni? Really? Have you ever used numoni payment app before ? I have. I continually wonder who invests in companies like these.

If you want credit where credit is due, let me introduce you to a company named NQ mobile ( note is link-motion). It is a company with 600 million USD in cash. Look at the share price. Look at the parallels between its company focus, products and cashflow.

Real cashflow, not selling of shares to generate income.

Everyone keep saying that INSAS is worth this much and that much. But I only have 3 questions to be answered:

1. From 2009-2018 they declare net profit of 900 million, brilliant! what is the earnings from? What are they doing with the earnings? How are they expanding and growing the return of equity? How are they rewarding the shareholders? Oh wait I know the last part, 2% dividend or 42 million out of the 900 million earnings.

2. Shareholders are not being rewarded, and they are punishing INSAS stock with low valuation. Even sslee is only willing to buy more INSAS stock at rm0.5. can someone give me financial figures why the general public n even sslee and stockraider wants to punish own company? If INSAS is worth rm3, surely there is someone out there who is willing to pay rm1.5 for it. Why has this never happened in INSAS history?

3. What organic growth can you calculate INSAS doing that does not include inari earnings? Comparing Berkshire to INSAS is insanity because they buy good businesses almost one every year or so. INSAS got lucky one time.

Why are you guys enjoying buying mutual funds? If you like inari just buy it. If you bought inari in 2016, you would have tripled your money before the crash. If you bought a mutual fund like INSAS that helps you invest in car rentals and vigcash and loss making clothes, and lousy dome coffee where you don't have any control over buying or selling of inari shares to profit you deserve every cent you lose.

Here is my finalized long game on INSAS:

5-10 years from now, INSAS is going to spend your 900m earnings in investing in a newfangled business ( let's say self driving car rental business) that will flame out spectacularly.

I say this because I can't find anything in INSAS that I would buy for the long term other than it's holdings in inari.

It doesn't grow it's business, it buys the wrong businesses at the wrong time, and time will prove if holding on to inari shares for the long term will be a fruitful endeavor.

And for sslee comparison of QL vs INSAS? I prefer buying a income producing farm ANYDAY compared to buying a piece of undeveloped land. Your idea of nta is beyond shallow. Inari shares are worth nothing unless sold for cash and dividends. If this year there is a correction of tech stocks ( and Apple has already guided to a decline in the next few quarters), you could lose 50% of your value in inari.

Without being able to do anything about it.

Me? I still have my farm.

I'd pay a premium for that.

I don't think so jellyfish, since the nta is worth rm3, definitely tan Sri halim will purchase rm3 for it one day.

Never mind business performance, ROE or organic growth.

It is worth nta3, never mind that you will be paying 1.8 billion for a company that does nothing, grows nothing and builds nothing long term.

Yes, datuk seri thong won't live forever. But when new management is telling you they are not buying INSAS shares, and they tell you they will not be buying INSAS shares in the future...

What are you doing buying INSAS shares?

In essence this is a perang tiga penjuru between acheh, melaka and Portugal. Portugal wants to take melaka straits, but they know without melaka support they can't do it. Melaka currently controls the straits, but they don't dare expand because parameswara just died and the new King is an idiot who can't grow the Port. And acheh, they just want to be rich so they dip into the straits of melaka, not knowing they have to stay on the other side of the sea, and can't go to rich people corner.

Interesting points.

Fair value of INSAS is rm3?

So in a nutshell, assuming they have the warchest, current management will not pay fair value for INSAS. And big activist investors will also not pay fair value for INSAS. So it comes down to how much below fair value investors are willing to sell for INSAS right now?

However,

If share price goes up too high, many investors will cash in the warrants to convert to shares, introducing dilution and bringing the share price down again.

They have 687 million in cash but they haven't gotten around to either spending it on a good m&a target or giving it out to the longtime suffering shareholders. So since their other investments are not producing tangible results, they pump in more money into inari shares because they can't do share buybacks.
<<< Does money in other people's bank help to feed stockraider at night?

Retail shareholders come here from inari, so any surprises with inari will directly impact INSAS performance, even if management of inari is a separate party. <<< INSAS shareholders to pay for inari mistakes? But they can't enjoy inari benefits?

The share price of INSAS has been rangebound at rm1, so retail investors are reflexively thought to sell some shares when it goes above rm1, due to warrant consideration and management guidance from their revenue and profit generation. <<< Raise your hand anyone who start thinking of selling INSAS shares the moment it goes beyond rm1.5. And you call yourselves shareholders. Shame on you. NTA is 3.

All in all, the retail investor, current management and fund managers all do not want to pay rm3 for INSAS, as they do not believe in the future of INSAS 5-10 years from now to find another inari. Even though they believe the nta value of INSAS is worth rm3.

So the main question is, how much discounts are you willing to sell for me to take INSAS off your hands?

If everyone is willing to let go of INSAS at rm1.5 to rm2,

Then using the nta value of rm3 is useful only as a guide.

If even the current management biggest shareholder is not willing to pay rm2 to buy your shares from you, and if you know 5 years from now you will never get more than nta for INSAS (there will always be a discount to value for management)

Wouldn't this be the very definition of a value trap?

Just some thoughts as ttb icap.biz also runs the same operation, just using nta as a valuation point, without looking at ROE and business performance.

You are still scratching your head on soy part? Maybe you should read latest qr report from layhong on their earnings miss. They quote soy price increase in 8% cause their profit to drop drastically. That and culled birds and inventories thrown away. But maybe you think all your chickens eat corn...

I3lurker..

Sorry but before you further embarrass yourself with a business you are not familiar with, maybe I can help elaborate on how QL started business.

QL did not start selling chickens and eggs, as it is a controlled items.

They started doing fishmeal and feedstock trading in 1987. Basically they were in the fertilizer business ( for animals) as this is a uncontrolled price item in the market.

Then they diversified into poultry, broilers, day old chickens and eggs after they have established full vertical integration via QL agrofoods sdn bhd.

Most small and mid farms struggle with poultry business because the selling price of poultry is fixed, but manpower is always increasing, and they always have to import soy and animal feed from suppliers (like QL) who have a duopoly with gold coin holdings (privately owned), Cargill and CP.

The ones that have their own feedmill operations (ql) which also uses raw materials from palm oil (ql) to produce their own feed for their high tech low manpower poultry farm(ql) which are then sold to their own retail operations ( family Mart) are very few and far between.

The nearest comparison you can find in asean is CP foods, the subsidiary of privately owned CP group. they own 7-11 in Thailand, they do aquaculture and frozen food, have a pe of 20 and do around 28 billion rm revenue per year, with a operating margin of 1.9%.

People are not valuing QL based on local statistics. Foreign investors are buying into QL based on it's comparison with CP. QL is growing at a faster rate than CP foods, and doing it at a net margin of 6-8% earnings.

They not only have been able to penetrate into Vietnam and Indonesia, but are doing it at better margins.

Why I'm still holding at 50pe? I'm looking at the economic landscape, the future business 10 years from now and I'm confident that ql can easily make the jump from 3.6 billion yearly sales to 10 billion yearly sales easily. And if they fight CP foods toe for toe with 28 billion sales revenue?

I'll be along for the ride.

Sslee, interested in learning something new here. Not being critical or offensive.

I humbly want to know:

Many management are comfortable with going over the 33% , and many ways to go about it without triggering the stock buyin.
e.g.
NESTLE SA owns 70% of Nestle Malaysia
Ql owners own 52% of ql resources
Hap Seng consolidated Berhad owns 53% of hap seng plantations

What do you mean when they cannot go above the 33% mgo threshold?

Do you mean
A. When they trigger this threshold they need to show SC that they have enough money to buy all the shares as a substantial shareholder, otherwise they must sell until below this level again?
Or
B. they unable to create a proxy holding company so that they can hold indirect shares in INSAS that they can use to increase their direct shareholdings privilege

Very interested to know.

- I still believe that the best option is for INSAS to buy back its own stock to push up the price of INSAS to fair value region, instead of buying more stock in inari and dgsb and vigcash which is high pe valuation. If INSAS is overvalued I can understand the reason for not doing this, but INSAS seems so grossly undervalued I really want to understand management decision in not doing so.

I just finished reading this:

>>>>
FRIDAY, 12 JUNE 2009
Lessons from the recent severe bear market
Reviewing my investing of the last 1 year.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2009/06/lessons-from-recent-severe-bear-market.html

This is brilliant and scary at the same time because when I went big and lost in aokam perdana and renong back in the day I actually wrote the same thing almost word for word. And kept reading it while saving money to pay back friends and family borrowings after the big loss of 97'.

I still remember writing it down in my buku 555.
>>>>
Biggest lesson I learned: never trust fund managers and analysts ever again. They promised me tan Sri halim was going to pay the 2.3 billion option for uem( he didn't) and he now runs sumatec (which I will never recommend to anyone)

3iii - you have my respect and restored my faith in the investors of the forum!

Keep trusting your own self and ignore the noise surrounding you!

Not only am I focused on tax,

I also look at the deliverables and receivables, where it take 4 months to deliver one machine.

As for growth, can you name all their customers? There are 325 customers I last checked.

The only reason why they bought from vitrox was that at each juncture they were selling cheaper than the competition at a acceptable quality level.
(Japan vision machines have a much lower failure rate)

Once you put tax into the equation, they will either have to raise prices or sell it at 5% margins to remain competitive. For a tech firm that has 290 workers and spend 40 million on r&d every year to complete with companies that doesn't 500 million on r&d every year?

What growth? Where growth? Why growth?

You talk about strategic growth as if you know what it means.

If you really did you would have bought QL in 2009, public bank during financial crisis.

Your only smart move was buying genting when everyone thought the theme park was a disaster.

That I salute.

Problem is, do you dare consolidate and buy more every quarter?

Do you know why you should buy or not? Or are you like the others, always looking at price first and foremost

I3 lurker: this shows how shallow your investment skills are.

Please visit the mikromb forum, see how sad they are. Then read again why they are sad.

After you are done, go back to vitrox financial statements and read again on tax exemption for Pioneer companies. Whisper to yourself how many percent and how long we have.

Now minus out the mida tax exemption and tell me again if vitrox machine vision statement can compete long term with foreign companies from China,USA, japan and Germany. Compare the price of the v910x and the Optimus range with The competitors ( I did).

Now think long and hard what is the moat and growth opportunities of vitrox long term 5-10 years from now after you have this information.

I have been reading about vitrox and globetronics and myeg far far longer than you all have been investing.

And yet I still keep to my QL.

For my comparison between HARTA and TOPGLOV,

Both businesses are very good. But after looking at the moat and business opportunities, then you look at the assets and value. HARTA is enjoying high valuation because of the profit margin. But there PE is far too high compared to TOPGLOV.

Plus since I've been holding on to TOPGLOV share for so long, I just follow and continue holding.

TOPGLOV reason for buying aspion is to challenge HARTA nitrile market.
Sure they overpaid 1.37 billion for the company, and there was fraud in understatement of company assets.

But my future guarantee,
Aspion is still a running company doing 10% of TOPGLOV revenue. It is expected to provide 80-100 million in profit in 4-5 years, and moreover legal action is still being run for a return of 750 million of the value sold to be return to TOPGLOV.

I am being paid to wait, so wait I shall.

Basically I no longer see any nasty surprises, the market is still up and growing for TOPGLOV. And I have a revenue and profit guidance for the next 5-10 years, how hard can it be to estimate glove sales 10 years from now. It is still easier and more accurate than estimating the revenue and earnings growth of a company like INSAS 5-10 years from now.

I will get back to you with this 2 years from now. But things seem priced in for now.

Exactly, I read through so many stocks I can have a pretty quick idea if the business idea works or not, similar to when someone comes over and tells you to buy Swiss cash, jjptr etc. Those that sounds fantastic usually is.

QL business is not those fantastic kind where suddenly out of the blue big bag of money drop from the sky. Just as I know QL price can never differently skyrocket up, I also know QL price can never suddenly come down without a good reason.

But in my entire investment period with QL, it has never dipped below PE 20. But still people buy. Why?

If in 9 years you never hold QL, today also you will never hold QL. So why bother telling you to buy QL?

Same with Amazon, same with Netflix, and same with Facebook and Alibaba. All overvalued.

Raider I try it from your point of view.

Wah hey Charlie! I go and buy Berkshire ok ah? It's a textiles company loh, future growth not so good lah got China competition. But no problem leh, the stock value now 7.50, but even though the business not so good, each time they close a mill, the stock price sure go up one! You see? The intrinsic value of Berkshire assets and mills I think is worth at least 15 one! Value investing mah, sure win!

2 months later: walauweh the management cheat me leh, promise me 11.50, now final offer 11.34. damn shit management. Buy you out lah dunz. I manage better than you manage.... Geram!!!

Charlie Munger: shut up and go buy Nebraska Mart. I heard the old lady selling. They conquer entire nebraska carpet price. This cigar butt investing getting on my nerves.

Raider Buffett: expensive leh! She asking for pe15. If don't work out how?

Charlie munger: ..........

Stockraider, your concept of using intrinsic value as a purchase point is flawed. If I buy INSAS because it is undervalued, then at 2.40, would it not be for the best for me to buy back INSAS shares from 0.69 to 1.38, realizing immediate 100% gain in value? Why would I rather buy inari shares that don't bring me any "guaranteed" return, and some more have to pay pe18 for?

Why why why why?

Probably because if you bought INSAS in 2009 and top up every quarter till 2017, you would be digging your own grave?

While when I did the same for QL, many years later I could afford to sell some QL shares and use dividend to send my daughter to USA further study?

Real world and accounting world vastly different.

Just finished reading up on Calvin tan sick DUFU and his comparison with QL. Very interesting.
One is a penny stock with 500m market cap.
The other is a 11 billion market cap.

One is able to be manipulated easily by sindicate. It went up 65% in one month just from one good quarter. If I took margin loan, I could rustle up 50 million to push this stock up, be substantial shareholder, promote and leave the investing public confused and cheated.
DUFU sells majority to.... 1 main customer, Seagate. If that customer gone, DUFU will et phone home, back to the stars.

Another has been around since 1987. Held by long term minded investors and have foreign investors holding more than 7 years.

Sometimes I do wish fund managers like Calvin can come up with a proper research on why QL is not a good buy. It's a bad company. Its badly managed etc.

But in the end all of their arguments come down to 2 things.

1. QL is a wonderful company, a good company.
But
2. Ql is overvalued

So in the end it's all the same answer. I was never good at item 2, I don't know how to buy and sell into value. But this is the same as majority of i3 investors, including Jon choivo, including stockraider, including Calvin tan etc. If they tell you they have 100% win rate, it's probably bullsh$t.

But I am good at number 1. I am 4 out of 4 so far, after valuing and looking at more than 2000 companies in ace and Bursa.

So in the end as long as I am right in number 1, and every quarter I keep buying, I'll probably be ahead.

2m stocks in QL, started with 200k in 2009
2m stocks in TOPGLOV, started with 500k in 2010
600k stock in YINSON started 2013
500k stocks in public bank, started 2012
My performance after 9 years. Bought these stocks every quarter for 9 years.

Calvin tan I invite you to do more bombastic research on the other companies that I have bought, please give me a thorough research so I can reduce my due diligence time.

Cheers

As for QL, it is one of the easiest businesses to understand in Bursa. They produce feedstock, fishmeal, palm oil, chicken, eggs and seafood. They run family Mart. They own a part of boilermech. All of these are very clear and easy to understand businesses with clear growth prospects.

The interesting and moat part of this business is, they can make money when layhong is losing money. They are making money when texchem is losing money, sushi King is bad and no dividend declaration. They can make money when palm oil industry is selling at 2.1k CPO from 3.2k during good times.

What is the secret? Why is everyone losing money, but QL keep earning tons of cash? Accounting scandal? Book cooking?

If it is really cooking books, then I would have been cooked 5 years ago when my shares quintoupled in value. But no restatement. No complaints. Just continued performance year in year out.

If I told you the same story in oil and gas, everyone losing money declaring losses every year, but one company keep earning and earning and growing and growing would you believe it?

If I told you tomorrow all banks in Malaysia have a bank run, only one bank will be left standing with quality deposits would you believe it?

And if I told you biggest rubber gloves company in the world is not a Chinese company, not an Indian company, but is a Malaysian company would you believe it?

But, still everyone loves to buy penny stocks because they are too cheap to pay for a quality company.

I do not come to promote QL so I can sell to you, that is for sure.

I already informed that I have 2m shares in QL, I am neither a kyy type biggest shareholder, or a subscription based fund manager.

If I was either one of those, would I even be promoting QL?

No, I would be promoting pump and dump stocks that I can run with.

What I am promoting is an investment philosophy.

When people compare Berkshire, do they start with the price? No, you start with the philosophy and the clarity of business, and the business prospects.

When WB says he looks at the prospects of the company first 5-10 years from now, then he looks at the asking price.

Now, I must admit I am not smart enough to know the second part, but after 18+ years of investing experience, I finally have a clearer understanding of the first part.

Problem is, many investors including CharlesT and Calvin tan think they know the second part, without understanding the first part.

Take for example mnrb, you can see that their revenue have been stuck at 2- 2.5 billion for years. You know that as reinsurance business margins is low and it is very competitive. If you think on the business carefully, you will find it difficult to guess where their revenue will come from 5-10 years from now, will it increase, will it decrease. What business prospects it has.

I tell you truly, if you know a business will not grow and will diminish in the future, PE 5 will not justify purchase in such a company. PE 2 also people will not buy if you know the directors are crooked.

In the long run you are buying a company for it's earnings performance. Not for it's implied value.

Did Calvin try Japanese soft serve ice cream at family Mart? Or did the long queue for a convenience store turn you off? If queue too long you can complain at the Facebook page.

Don't worry, family Mart is opening as many stores as they can.

This is Calvin tan value investing super stock selection

2009
INSAS revenue 250 million 90 million net profit
2017 revenue 350 million 90 million net profit


2009
Ql revenue 1.2 billion, profit 80 million
2017 revenue 3.6 billion, profit 200 million

But this is financial accounting. Real world performance different.

If you are Warren Buffett father, you can take credit for giving birth to the greatest investor in the world. But you can never force him to do what you want, or tell him not to buy Tesco.

But more importantly, if you don't know how to give birth to another Warren Buffett, then all you are is lucky.

This called Calvin tan value investing.

Typo, iskandar.

Thanks.

And one final needle to prick Calvin tan bubble.

Next quarter report will include Christmas and Chinese New year sales.

In Asia.

When the fish catch improved, of course ql will proceed to increase inventory. It's not like Calvin tan investment into headless chickens grown in vats for KFC delivery.

Seafood has a growth period and a harvesting efficiency. Singaporean living in jurong probably never went out to sea before. Maybe you can come to Sabah? We can bring you out to semporna to do some QL deep sea fishing? Tropical storm and pirates not withstanding.

But one thing can guarantee: when Christmas and Chinese New year came, how many parties do you go to.

Calvin tan probably won't know, as none of his Christian friends ever invited him for dinner.

But I can tell you guaranteed end year sales will explode.

FYI, you still haven't been to family Mart in jb yet?

Next time you visit your islander properties your should buy some Japanese soft serve ice cream first.

And as for Calvin tan other argument:

https://qz.com/1196256/it-took-amazon-amzn-14-years-to-make-as-much-net-profit-as-it-did-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2017/

Do you prefer long term growth with low earnings short term? It sort term earnings and dividends but company doesn't grow? I prefer the former.

Debt is a horrible tool when Calvin uses it. But when QL uses it:

2009
300 million revenue quarterly 20 million np quarterly 953 million total assets

2017
800 million revenue quarterly 50 million np quarterly
3180 million total assets

Company earning net profit 5 % every year can grow that fast? In a COMMODITIES industry?

Berkshire Hathaway still hasn't paid a single cent of dividend.

But there is a lesson to be learnt here. Something Calvin has not told you.

How to value Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Berkshire, Alibaba, Netflix, Google.

CASH FLOWS.

How much money is a company generating. How much money is being spent on growth. How long is the gestation period between building new plants, buildings and machinery to converting it to generated earnings. What are the growth targets and acquisitions.

Calvin, your cigar butt investing methods, emotional capslock responses, holier than thou Christian attitude, 120 stock holding counters and wonderful stock performances without solid proof show that you are more suspect and manipulator than Chia brothers.

But there is something to learn here. At current prices, it seems that the mr market does view the shares to be overvalued at 7.68, and have sold it down to 6.10. but at 6.10, the lot of investors including management (and me) considers it a worthwhile. It is currently been bought till 6.75.

I personally have bought 50k shares at 6.25 on Christmas bonus.

Thanks Calvin for the worthy lesson and intense research.

Oh no, Warren buffet is selling 99% of his networth in Berkshire Hathaway. This is bad news! ( For a long time). He just gave his shares to Bill Gates and Melinda Gates to use! Oh no! They are manipulating the market! It's time to sell Berkshire!

What I find is funny is why Calvin only stop at November 2018 for his list of sellers and buyers. Or did his research conveniently forget to point out:

27 December 2018: epf buy 1,173,600 shares
28 December 2018: epf buy 239,700 shares
27 December epf buy 800k shares
21 Dec epf buy 819k shares
20th Dec epf buy 400k shares
19th Dec 3.95 million shares buy
18 December buy 1 million shares
17 December buy 1.6 million shares
2-3rd January 2029epf dispose 480k shares
4th January epf buys 307k shares

I leave the other dates after Calvin tan end date of 21st November to decide.
What does this prove other than epf has a big group of fund managers who all have different thinking patterns. Some sell, some buy, I thought he follows Ben Graham or Mr Market?

But what was the reason for fervent buying after late November? Quarterly results analysis. Not like Calvin tan suka suka buy and sell based on technical indicators with magic mirrors

But important thing is after buying and selling: epf still has 106 million shares. Calvin tan has 0.

For the Chia song kun he has 684 MILLION 1HUNDRED 41 THOUSANDS 748 shares via direct 844k share and indirect holding company
Chia song peow: 2,560,000 direct 199 million indirect
Chia song fatt: 631k direct and 195 million indirect

If really wanted to manipulate, why stop at 200k shares. Why not go big and keep selling 3-5 million shares every day before quarterly report? Why buy back after that?

Final hint. What is the role of cbg(l) foundation? Why did the selling coincide with the foundation needs?

Maybe Calvin who is good in Greek and I'm sure an honest Christian and master investor can elaborate on the word FOUNDATION.

Or Calvin doesn't do charity works? Too poor to be charitable?

Like I said, billionaires like Chia brothers can't be bothered by retail investors like Calvin.

I believe I have found out how Calvin actually makes his 6 figure profit margins.

I believe the the real identity of Calvin tan is actually a master trader! Here is where he can teach you the path to financial freedom! Just 30 minutes a day!

https://wealthcreationmentors.com/tamaa1east/?orid=53635&opid=32&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=cnbc&utm_campaign=STM201901aaronMobKL&utm_term=He+Shares+How+He+Profits+From+Stocks+30+Mins+A+Day&utm_content=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.taboola.com%2Flibtrc%2Fstatic%2Fthumbnails%2Fd007a6291bf90f2f2c94e62dcb16f69d.jpg

So Calvin keep making big profit, buy and sell buy and sell?

Selling and buying timing is wonderfully perfect! Can turn 48k into many millions!

Clap clap clap!

Wow clap hands, even Warren Buffett doesn't know how to handle 120 counters. All 120 counters making money at the right time and right place. Then sell and the perfect timing, no losses!

Calvin tan is so brilliant, maybe I should pay him for stock advice! He seems very honest and helpful!

What should I bring do with my shares in QL? Sell it and buy INSAS?

Seriously, Calvin tan might as well go walking around with a crystal ball and telling you exact price to buy and exact price to sell.

Not even Warren Buffett is that brilliant. Calvin tan is professional fund manager!

But I really doubt on this Calvin stock performance. Here is a simple logical reason why:

1. When you have a basket of 120 counters, you will never have the conviction to buy long and add every quarter. I've tried it long time ago, and it just doesn't work. You will always think of diversifying and minimizing your risk and sell your winners too early and buy too many losers.
2. When you cut out those 120 counters into 4, it's basically because you have very high confidence in those stocks after looking at thousands of other stocks in the market and you just can't find anything else better to buy. It's very rare to find once in a lifetime stocks. But the difference is, once you find it, you realize that every quarter you just keep topping up those same stocks because the quarterly report is good, the management is good and nothing else out there compares better.

Personally, the only reason why I am able to collect 2m shares in QL is because I found a wonderful company with wonderful management and growth prospects, then follow it every quarter and top up from 2009 until today. So far I have been right and blessed. I always buy late and never at the right time, but in the end it works out.

Calvin on the other hand, I think need to reduce the sugar intake.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/08/09/buffett-challenge-hedge-funds-vs-index-funds-9-years-on.html

P.s. you should give vanguard an email, they are also a substantial shareholder in QL!

Isn't 10 lots like 1000 shares? Nice try kid. Buy one time, is not consider investing.

If you don't believe a stock can perform for 10 years, don't waste your time buying a stock for 10 minutes.

Those who proudly tell your their bad investments, are real investors.

Those who only list their winning stocks and never let you know their bad investments ... just want to sell you subscription services.

Nice try Calvin.

Oh ya, family Mart says Hi! 90 stores coming up, and they just opened up branches in Johor.

You might want to relax and enjoy some Japanese soft serve ice cream!

I think there is still 0 family Mart stores in Singapore.

Guess who will submit proposal for expansion?

This hyperactive kid very funny, he is going to every forum page asking everyone to sell QL.

Problem is, all the stocks pages he visits are all full of speculators and "value" investors like him who only know how to speculate, buy when low, sell when high, buy when lower, then cut loss when lowest.

This is Calvin tan strategy. He always say he make money, but all the stocks he chooses end up as bad stocks in the long run. He say he hold UMW for 15 years, too bad for him. Until today still don't know how to pick moat companies.

Steve job hold Apple until he die.
Jeff bezos will hold Amazon until he die.
Warren Buffett will hold Berkshire until he die.
I hold QL for 9 years now, probably until I die.

Those who hold good stocks, will be rewarded magnificently for long term

Gamblers like Calvin tan and his so called Johor sifu, will hold INSAS until their brains get fried.

Don't stress Mr tan! White hair all coming out.

P.s. maybe I private message you Mr Liu San contact number, you can tell him to sell his 6 million shares in QL. I don't think a lot of the i3 investors here are holding QL shares. Those who do usually hold it for the long term.

I'm still waiting for your Calvin tan research report on why people will stop eating chicken, eggs and seafood.

Stop with the caps lock. It's not going to make you more believable.

I was wondering what kind of stocks Calvin is already promoting and looking at.

Looking at this CARIMIN, I can't tell the future 5 years from now, the quality of the performance or the future of a manpower supply business. Maybe will change, maybe will not. Past results since 2014 is pretty bad. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

But I can guarantee ONE thing: looking at their cash balance, their debt and loans and their gearing, and of course their industry, banks will not be willing to give out big loans. So only 1 option.

Share dilution via release of treasury shares, private placement, sale of warrants etc.

This one I can guarantee within 5 years.

Especially if results come up, and everybody exuberant to buy more Curry mee

Ql started since 1987, and listed in main bursa in 2000. In that entire time, I have never seen one single time where the management of QL keep selling their shares to cause their stocks to crash so they can buy it for low low price and cheat investors trust.

Never once.

It's like asking Warren Buffett to sell his entire stake in in Berkshire just because it is overvalued, then buy back again at a later date when the stock price cratered.

Comparing QL to transmile is like comparing Enron with 3M.

FYI, if ql really drop to 4.5, I will take all the margin I can this time again and go all in on QL.

Then you will see my name on top 30 list of shareholders finally.

I stopped listening when calvintan started comparing business prospects of companies like QL with crooks like Sendai, lion, dufu, and Jaks.

His reasoning is because those companies don't do well, then QL will also not do well?

Very wonderful reasoning.

All I can say is this: ql shareholder value is in line with management Value.

Why?

Management has 52% in family shareholdings. That means if they do well, we all do well. They won't be doing any hanky panky like those other companies Calvin likes to compare with.

Biggest question is: chia family are basically billionaires. If they sell all their shares they can live happily until they die.

But, why are they still working so hard? Why is the second generation just as capable and hard working as the first generation founders? Why they kids don't buy Ferrari and Lamborghini but still come to office.

I just had breakfast today with my best friend director of MB sandakan ql subsidiary, at 7 am before he goes to work.

I asked him, since you own 6 million shares in ql, why don't you sell and enjoy life and retire. Why still come to office early every morning?

His simple answer, he enjoys his job!

So I realize Calvin will never understand this. He is content to earn 10-20k every month with his cigar butt value investing.

While those who have participated in the wonderful growth of QL all those time don't even notice existence of retail investors like him.

So, do what you will and sell your short term shares in QL. Is is your choice and certainly your money.

Just know that the main shareholders don't play syndicate, don't play with their company stocks for fun.

They work hard for the company, and make sure you are happy with your long term investment.

99.9% of the stocks in bursa is rubbish. I don't know how to value the majority of them.

So far I only found 4 stocks that I know will do well in 5-10 years where I can sleep well at night.

So far the stocks I bought have never had a 50% correction in price in 9 years. Maybe this year will be the year. Even Berkshire Hathaway dropped 50% 4 times in it's entire history after 1965.

But in either case I'm so far ahead the dividends enough for me to live happily and send my daughter to USA for further study.

Good luck to all.

My advice lazycat: don't ask people for stock investing advice. Ask them for stock investing principle will be more important.

That way you will know your own stock and the reasons you bought it.

TOPGLOV very simple. Do you have the next quarter results? I don't. Has HARTA, kossan, supermax all produced quarterly results for comparison? No?

What definite info do you have?, TOPGLOV highest revenue of all time? Yes. Good profit margins? Yes. China rubber gloves stabilise yes. Delivery time of gloves from 70 days to 30+ days? Yes.

Why people selling? Is it due to rumors? Insider info? Lemmings? Technical people doing technical things? Most likely yes, yes, yes.

So what do I do? I have December qr results. It is great. Trade statistics, not so good. Profit margin? Still straightforward growing. Rubber trees? Still planting, no disease. Trade war us and china? I don't know if business as usual good or not. TOPGLOV market share of glove market? Still damn good.

I can never time the market. I always buy or hold late. But in the long run it probably doesn't matter.

I might buy more after March quarter report. Or hold.

Or I might sell. But only if I find a business with better prospects than TOPGLOV. And if TOPGLOV management suddenly go crazy and decide to start being a developer/phone manufacturer etc.

What I will never do is spazz out, recommend and buy 15 other new stocks and go nuts.

Disclosure: last month I did buy TOPGLOV 10k shares @10.8 before it split share. So right now, I am underwater with a lot of loss... Oh no! :( 10% down, world is ending!

Ok,
Here is where it is dumb.

In January 2018, Calvin tan research promoting INSAS as the best performing stock. It dropped from rm1 to rm0.69 today. he doesn't tell you the operation of dome coffee compared to competitors, operation of milleium losing money, the investment in vigcash(how much they lost again?)
On dgsb, INSAS bought 7% from omesti for almost 7 million, then proceeds to spend 13m to buy 20% on dgsb. You can take a look at your management quality from here. Or better yet just take a look at the financials of dgsb and tell me if you know what they do and why you would be willing to pay 100 million valuation for the company. m&a securities? Do you use them? Does anyone use them? Is it growing? Pacific car rental? Anyone use them? Or you prefer grab? Please ask if Calvin tan uses Pacific car rental...

This is like Calvin tan research! Get one stock right and keep telling it to the world! The other bad investments, hide it under a rug make don't know and hope people forget.

But financial reports remember! Calvintan doesn't have to report his portfolio! He doesn't have to list out yearly his total portfolio purchases, his buy date/sell date, percentage of holdings, 10 year stock performance! But he can sell subscription service! Very nice! Even Jon choivo is honest and straight! Calvin tan only talk! But no backup! Too bad for INSAS, need to do more than talk!

INSAS management performance clear for blind man to see! Get lucky one time! But can see whether it's luck or skill.

it's dumb when everybody queueing to buy Swiss gold, just because everybody doing it, then sell Amazon just because everyone doing it.

It's dumber when you buy spoilt fish in supermarket just because it's 50% discount in the market! VALUE INVESTING!

Oh my Calvin tan, mind sharing your stock portfolio performance?

I bought 200k of QL in 2009, let's assume I didn't do top up every quarter for 9 years straight. I just hold 200k for 9 years. How is your stock portfolio 9 years performance in comparison?

OK CALVIN! I WILL FOLLOW YOU SELL!! NOW CAN YOU STOP IT WITH THE CAPSLOCKS? YOU SOUND LIKE A OVERACTIVE CHILD!

emotional people should really stop investing in stock market. they get too worried and stressed out over short term ups and downs in the stock market.

At the very least, you should wait until the dec quarter report when guidance is out before you decide to buy or sell.

For me I am holding on to my stock. From my 9 years of experience holding QL stock, december quarter is usually the best in terms of either volume revenue growth or net profit growth for QL.

Why? Because for december quarter usually, sales for christmas and chinese new year is very good for seafood, eggs and chickens, and palm oil derivatives. If you dont believe me, you can check the figures yourself. Now add that to their new expansion from the hutan melintang frozen and chilled factory factory running at max capacity,the shrimp and seafood export to australia for christmas, the china and us trade war. QL will have a big export market to supply in the short term. The longer the china and us trade war, the better for the other asean countries.

So far I have not heard any low seafood catch supply drop, no bird flu, culled chickens and slowing demand for eggs and chickens, palm oil price still holding steady at 2.1k and going up. in fact, the recent culling of poultry among the leading suppliers of poultry seems to be indicative for a good quarter coming up for QL.

Although I hope that story doesn't change, so far I am confident. But of course will still find out during the next quarter result announcement.

So even if you are doing technical trading, I am still looking at:

1 billion revenue, 75 million net profit (average for dec quarter sales 7.5% consistently over 9 years), which will be their highest profit margin ever.

So if that is the case, I don't see any reason why I would sell like a overstimulated cactus.

Unless you think, hartalega, topglove and ql sell the same thing? hartalega should have a pe reset, they are overpriced due to specializing only in nitrile gloves (with china stabilizing their gloves production) and if you didnt notice the delivery times dropping from (from 70 days to 30+ days) indicating that the demand for rubber gloves in returning back to normal levels, then you have another thing going in stock evaluation.