Everyone seems to forget terminal value when valuing a business. They seem to think business will grow forever.

But the truth is, if you read enough financial reports, you will realize trend,

A) companies just starting out and have high growth prospects, low earnings high pe
B) companies in mature growth stage with a piece of the market pie medium pe
C) companies slowing down, in risky time, or in sunset industries, low pe

The trick is to be able to understand how big the pie is and how much of it is feasible.

Banks in Malaysia are like b) hard to grow further, but huge moat and stable business

Companies like ql and yinson which were able to identify new business units and expanded organically with great success.

And finally companies like insas,leonhuat and johotin who have hit the maximum growth potential in their market, and not being able to pivot or expand new businesses successfully, end up stagnating.

As for comparison to johotin,
It was easy to see. Johotin was a one trick pony that has subpar management even from early on and just took advantage of market pricing on raw materials to make a profit. If it had branched out to property development back then like scientex, I might have given them benefit of doubt. If it had done vertical integration into final product retail, I would have been impressed. If it had expanded into Indonesia, Thailand or Philippines instead of Mexico, I would have been hopeful. Instead, what I saw was weak management decisions in growing their business. If you compare that to the actions gone by ql management, you would see they have similar starts, but you can guess the end results from their m&a activities.

Sometimes revenue and profit don't mean a thing, unless you have a plan for the long run.

Was ql expansion from feedmill into poultry into marine into palm oil into family Mart masterful? Yes and each time a big success. Will it be able to replicate its business overseas long term? Definitely. I can see a plan for ql to do 10 billion in ten years and 1 billion in profits.

What did johotin do to give anyone any confidence in its ability to grow its business long term? How much growth can you expect from johotin?

>>>
take a look at Johotin lah

In 2009, its revenue was RM100 mil. In 2018, its revenue RM400 mil. A 300% increase !!!

In 2009, its net profit was RM5 mil. In 2018, its net profit was RM25 mil. A 400% increase !!!

Did the market give it 50 times PER ? Nope, 14 times PER (which I think is fair)

What does this mean in the context of the prospectus exactly? What price exactly did you calculate?

Are you just spewing words just so people can hear you speak, or do you actually have something meaningful to add?

It's like saying the intrinsic value is low so he buy.

What does that even mean? How would what you said even aid you in valuing stoneco? Or n other fintech businesses incoming into bursa and sgx? Or even valuing numoni sdn BHD?

Have you even read the IPO prospectus?

Are you even interested in learning anything in life? Or do you think you have learned everything there is to learn?


>>

Why did he buy? He considered the price to be lower than all the future cash flows discounted to present values.

some examples, previous annual report

RCECAP uses 519 million equity to generate 88 million, ROE of 16.95%
PBB uses 37 billion to geneerate 5.4 billion of profit, ROE of 14.59%
HL bank uses 24 billion to generate 2.6 billion of profit, ROE of 10.83%

In this case you may believe that RCECAP is the stock to buy, until you think about economies of scale, performance on large asset base and the quality of the asset (fuel quality), then you realize the reason why PBB is still the best performer overall.

Simply ask yourself this, if RCECAP increased its loan base to 37 billion and lend it to all the poor people in government office, do you think their roe will still be high? Or will they die to NPL.

As it is, ROE is a strong indicator of business performance, but obviously cannot stand alone. Use your business sense wisely.

I will say one thing, all the companies that I have bought I have compared with similar companies within their industries and countries. And in each case the business is simple to understand, with margins and capex that are very straightforward. Among those company's that are straightforward I realized that certain company's perform much better over a long run than others. My investing in that case is simple.

If the entire bursa index consisted of bank stocks, I merely choose public Bank. It may be more expensive than rce, mbsb and Maybank in valuation, but over the long run the outperformance will be more than any undervalued bank stocks in the short term.

Plus I sleep better at night.

As it is, enough about ql. I have made 10 times my investment by holding it long term since 2009. Every quarter for 40 quarters I have reinvested my earnings into it. All because I know what I see in it. I no longer feel the need to explain it rationalize to anyone my decision in holding and monitoring the stock anymore. All I can say is time will tell on my long term investment 10 year investment into topglove, pbb, yinson and ql. As I see no reason to sell as the story has not changed, I don't feel any need to explain long game investment theory to traders. Good luck

I apologize, I seem to have mistaken and thought that icon8888 is a young banana, with little experience in investing. I stand corrected in the face of an elder. Your profile image before confused me.

Cheers

Actually Stockraider was the one who started on ql. I have avoided repeating stories to people who don't understand.

I'm just interested in sifu opinion on investing in stocks like stoneco.

But again this is not a promotion or a push to ask someone to invest in a pe50 stock. That would again be insanity for new investors.

My question is merely: if stoneco were to do an IPO today in Malaysia, how many of you would invest in it? It's got huge borrowing, negative income, high growth, low earnings, low margins, what's metrics would you use to invest in it?

Ta doesnt with for IPOs, fa doesn't work for start ups. What then would be Warren buffet reasoning behind a high pe buy?

Ql produces their own raw material. They started in the feedmill business in the 80s before buying their poultry business.

Everybody can make coffee. But why Starbucks making profit and dome stagnating?

Everybody can make burgers? Why is MacDonald king?

It's all the same answer. Vertical integration. If you spend on debt to do vertical integration isn't it with more in the long run?

Everybody can raise chicken at home. You can grow to 3 billion business with chickens?

Chicken and egg business very predictable. I like predictable.

Dear icon8888,

I'm finishing my read of stoneco prospectus, and formulating my reasoning behind why berkshire Hathaway and ant financial (Alibaba) is buying the fintech company. It has the same reasons as to why I believe ql is a good buy.

Once I'm done, I'll try to do a long game on why they paid 22pe 2018 earnings for stoneco.

Gearing is reducing, it's use of debt is far more efficient than majority of the other listed chicken and eggs companies in all the listed companies in other countries of ASEAN than I have read through.

The main ideas I had were similar in terms of economies of scale, vertical integration, and business unit replication.

Personally, I believe in 12 years ql will hit matured business growth and end terminal value and I'm looking at 10-15 billion of yearly revenue and 1 billion in earnings. By that time they will have negative growth in doing capex to generate growth and will start giving out fatter dividend of 3-5% like the other similar companies.

I have followed 10 other companies financial report in other countries with 10+ years in similar performance factors, so I probably have a good idea of how ql will turn out.

Or I may be wrong. But I started with 200k in 2009, so I think I'm still up.

Ok, stockraider is super good investor. May I listen to your advice one day.

As for why I don't buy cp foods? It's the same as why you don't buy brk. Every business has a terminal value. Why should you buy a business with 28 billion revenue and slowing growth, versus buying a company with 3 billion revenue, higher margins and escalating growth?

My answer is clear.

But learning a lot of things here. Value trading is a thing! I look forward to seeing how it goes.

Insurance business is the same everywhere, is what you do with the float that makes the difference. To say that ql only does chickens is to say Berkshire only does insurance. Chicken and surimi are probably the same thing I guess.

Stockraider, u win! You are the great sifu. Everyone else is rubbish, compared to you. You are the great investor and super value trader!

Too bad we don't have to show everyone our remisier record of 10 year portfolio investment details, otherwise then we would be able to really compare your 12 year portfolio performance till 2022 vs ql stock performance in that same period.

It's easy to say whose equipment is longer when we don't have to show and tell.

And as for my 10 year investment in ql? Selling eggs and chickens is a very simple business to understand. You see business like it in every country and market from thailand to Singapore to Philippines to Indonesia. In Malaysia you see companies like lay Hong all the time. It is very high capex and very low margins. The growth is snail paced, profits are low, margins are low.

Then you see companies like ql which start from a gruesome business like layhong and maximize every single cent into new business units successfully, growing from 300 million to a billion in revenue quarterly, while in the same period and having a head start companies like layhong stuck in the 100+ million range for the longest time.

Going from a dead textile business into the biggest reinsurance company ever, and going from a dead chicken business into the most vertically integrated food production business ever in Malaysia, is why pe50 is understandable, and why I have yet to sell until today.

But I will sell when the story changes, which is why buy and forget is stupid. Those who don't know ql compare it to pos Malaysia. Those who know ql are looking to the growth patterns of a cp foods.

Very interesting frame of thought. I like this icon8888 young man.

I think he shows brilliance in his thoughts and ideas, far more than the other guy Jon choivo. Maybe young men should alto later till 5am to get clear thoughts? Brain turns to much after 9pm.

I only have only one thing to comment, I believe there is a big misunderstanding between the sentence buy and hold, and buy and forget. Most people seem to think both are the same thing. I think that is insanity, every business has an up and down, nothing stays the same forever. Anyone who doesn't keep track of their investments is just asking for trouble.

My only difference is I prefer to use real, current, accurate quarterly reports to tell me what I should do, instead of the stock price action of emotional monsters like Stockraider.

And to answer you final long question with a simple explanation:
Look at the latest quarterly report. At the back page they give the seasonal or cyclical factors of 0.28.

Last quarter ql did the highest revenue sales ever. The growth of family Mart is explosive as expected (89 stores Vs 20 dome cafes wth better earnings and profits.), Recovered sea food catch, recovered prawn disease, recovered poultry livestock ( compared to layhong culling), and incoming Christmas revenue and sales figures.

What do you think the results of ql will be in the December quarter. You can calculate and estimate that.

What will insas results be in the latest incoming quarter. Do you think they will outperform?

But you can't escape one undeniable fact.

Insas main profit driver is only from 1 activity, dividend of inari and sales of inari share to provide profit. However it uses those earnings on activities such as funding fintech(numoni) which is not competitive, dome cafe, which is non competitive, sengenic which sounds interesting but does not contribute anything. Nothing they do has shown any formn of growth that should award it a big share price increase.

On the other hand, you also cannot avoid:
Ql started in a industry with high capex and low margins. And yet it's management has used every cent of those earnings and embarked on organic growth in their core management competence by investing in new businessess that are wildly successful. It started from feedmill trading and venture into integrated livestock which is bigger than layhong today.. then it venture into palm oil plantations right before the palm oil boom of 2007. Then it venture into marine catch and surimi becoming one of the biggest integrated marine industries in ASEAN. Then now it is venturing into retail by franchising with family Mart, a convenience store concept with better margins and management than 7-11. At each point it uses its earnings to the best possible growth.

Why should you try to punish excellence and reward incompetence.

I am reminded of the story of the old man who couldn't wait for the goose who layed golden eggs to hatch into more golden geese. He grew frustrated when the golden eggs turned into chickens. He started selling the eggs, then when grew frustrated that the eggs were dropping so slow, he decided to kill the goose to get everything inside.

He found nothing.

I'm sorry I don't want to be vegetable trader like you. I prefer long term wealth creation. Your method only works until it doesn't.

À you should concentrate on buying stocks with PE below 5, is sure chun chun win one.

Jellyfish, you don't have to buy ql, and I will definitely recommend that you don't. It is overvalued and a bad buy. What I would recommend is you revisit your klse screener outlook by filtering out all stocks with higher PE than 20. Or 15. Or 10. Or 5.

Look to the business value first before making your choice in stock.

MYEG? I don't think so. It has many more bombs that it does growth trigger.
1. MSc status company 10 year tax incentive expiry. It will be hit from 0.54% -24% soon
2. gst system impairment 90 million which I had expected the moment they changed government and announced cancellation.
3. New concessions not to favour MYEG due to Zahid.
4. Corruption cases and possible penalties levied.
5. Lack of clarity on profit margins and revenue generation ?figures from Philippines and Bangladesh.
6. If government contracts gone out revised margins on concessions, will MYEG still be a 4 billion dollar company?

and most of all, if you can find a warren buffett like man to run your company, he can grow from a dying low margin textile business, and diversify SUCCESSFULLY into furniture, insurance, tooling, shoes, clothes, underwear,candy, etc etc etc please tell me. I would love to buy that company in a heartbeat.

Business performance always equal stock price increase.

FYI - Please dont buy QL. AFter 2009, they never diversified or integrated into anything new. They probably dont have any more ideas of how to maximize their limitations. Most likely declining sales and problematic cash flow problems in the next 5-10 years.

You can consider buying it when it is PE5.

by part time investor of course I mean having 28-100 other stocks in your counter. If you cant keep track of your stocks and use indicators and charts and short cuts, you deserve everything coming to you. Stock investing is laborious, boring and financially satisfying.

Most importantly, try to understand the logic behind the fact that all the top quality blue chips always sell at a certain premium. Why?

Please don't buy and sell to support price. Buy to support business performance. If the business monopoly is gone, then I will be the first to sell. But as long as the business doesn't change, why sweat the small things?

I think the biggest missaplication here is the understanding of the word PE. I will try to do a long winded explanation on the logic behind the usage of PE because I think a lot of investors don't understand it properly.

I apologize in advance to Stockraider for being long-winded. My previous post it seems no one understood.

Obviously the best way is still build business sense for yourself. Buy the stock and wait for kyy, choivo, sslee and Stockraider to come riding in.

Would this mean people like qqq3 is a far smarter trader than them?

And yes I use the term trader because that is what Stockraider is. A trader filling himself into thinking he is a value investor.

I stopped listening to Stockraider when he started comparing stock performance of ql and insas after 9 days of a 2 year future comparison. Without seeing quarterly reports and yearly annual reports he thinks just because because his insas share goes up from 0.67-0.7 it must be better than ql.

His idea of value investing is simply absurd. How he thinks how he acts you know he will buy and sell shares after a few months, then panic selling when recession comes.

But of course he is a master chun chun call millionaire

To be honest SSLee, if you think deeply about it, why did Warren buffet and Berkshire not go around telling everyone what they bought after they bought it. They know the wb effect, the moment they buy everyone will rush in thinking he knows something. In fact they get a special approval from sc not to let anyone know they bought a stock.

But why does kyy spend the time to tell you what he buys right after he buys it? He knows the price will go up, and because he is the big fish everyone joins in to buy on demand, thinking he knows something.

This is the kyy effect.

At the same time when he sells, he doesn't tell you first before hand. He sells first then tells you why it is not a good buy.

It is like Stockraider frontloading his stocks, Calvin tan frontloading his recommendations, all of them see the need to post on capital letters what they bought, why they bought and how they bought.

But do they ever put their money where their mouth is? Do they tell you the amount they have bought, how much shares they bought, when they sold, how much they are selling when they sell?NO!

But they know how to recommend.

Do you see me hanging around in topglove, public Bank, yinson page recommending and posting up buy recommendations?

What would be the motive behind those actions?

The only reason why I started posting is not because I want to run up ql prices ( which is nuts if you think about it at pe50 at your own risk), but it is because I wanted to share some information on investing which I think the Malaysian investors are not training themselve to improve on. Look to the business first. Then the value. Then the timing.

In fact, I believe our bursa Malaysia would be much bigger and more effective if all the local investors can recognized bad companies and pump and dump activities and refuse to invest in those companies.

If you reward good companies with long term shareholdings support and belief, I think in the long run our economy would do well.

It is when the perception that investing in Malaysia is a casino, a gambling den to make quick money that things fall apart.

Haha I'm sorry I'm starting to sound like you. All about religion and ethics. Old men will be old men.

SSLee.

You are very good with numbers and you want exact details. I can accept that. If I said 18%+ on ahlong loans ( which is exactly what unsecured loans are), if I missed a percentage point here and there, if that irks you. Then I apologize. Like I said, I am not good with numbers. But no one ever said you had to be perfect with your numbers to be good in investment.

I repeat be: If we see someone who weighs 300 pounds or 320 pounds, it doesn’t matter – we know they’re fat.

All you need is to understand the logic behind the numbers. If you think rcecap is not an ahlong company then you need to rethink your logic. And if you think all those loans from rcecap is for emergency family loan than you really have another thing coming. Majority of those loans are for frivolous things that they never really needed until they found a lender willing to extend credit.

If you need to borrow money for an emergency, just borrow based on trust. If you trust that person there is no need to extend high credit rates to make it worthwhile. If you don't trust that person, why borrow in the first place?

As for stockraider thinking that any investment in stocks is ok as long as you make money, then my respect for you is below zero.

Investors like you will never do well long term.

Why?

All you have is the habits you cultivate and the character that you observe.

If you build good habits and invest with those habits, your results will reflect that.

If you choose to invest in businessess where the owners and workers earn by victimising the uneducated, the poor, and the addicted, know that the management of those companies usually have reliability issues as well.

You want to be looking for great businessess where the management and workers enjoy going to with every morning, work their hardest for something the believe in.

That is definitely one of my criteria for a wonderful business.

Hi Fabien, that is a very smart attitude to life!

Listen to sifus but don't follow them.

Make up your own mind, and decide on your stock principles based on business growth prospects, not on what the sifus tell you.

Most importantly is to read a lot. As much as you can. Business sense can only be increased by reading and absorbing as many similar companies as you can compare with to see the growth prospects, incoming humps and challenges, and future growth triggers.

Reading up also on Barnes aerospace group might be an interesting parallel. They also have 50% in aerospace, and balance in industrial tooling. You would be surprised at the parallels in their businesses. Obviously one is 1 billion myr, and the other is 3 billion USD, but you get the picture

I repeat my saying,

You can't reinvent the wheel, but you sure can remember a good story.

Fabien, for me I look at it this way, of course I may be wrong, because I dont follow SAM engineering very closely or the airline industry either.

Now that I have more time to digest the aerospace industry, lets look at this:

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xpar/air/quote.html
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ba/quote.html

SAM specializes in manufacture engine casings. Assuming there are 2 engines per A320 neo (which i think brought their sales up), the main rise in revenue was due to deliverables of airbus which delivered on time.

if for a320 NEO we are looking at 386 deliveries this year. As I cant find the breakdown of SAM deliveries into engine casings and revenue gain projection. So I cant really extrapolate which part is the big earning point.

Anyway... you can use broad strokes and exact DCF figures here of the entire lifetime of A320 deliverables, backlog through entire lifetime of plane deliveries, their cost per plane (a320 neo costs 110 million usd, you can fraction it out to the cost per engine casing i guess)

From here you can have a good guess how big the market for SAM will be in the future.

However... if you look at your end customers for example,

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/5099.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3786.jsp
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/C6L.SI/financials?p=C6L.SI

you quickly notice one thing, its a competitive game , where you cant actually build planes to go everywhere. There is always certain routes which are flyable, and AA is good at quickly canceling routes that are not workable. Then they are also selling planes, to reduce over utilization exposure.

Worse problem is, after the fantastic rise is revenue for Boeing and Airbus, they are showing slowing growth and reducing revenue. You can do your own analysis from there.

Aka --> IF APPLE TELLS YOU THEY ARE SELLING LESS PHONES, DO YOU THINK INARI WILL ALSO START TO SELL LESS SEMICONDUCTORS?

Stockraider, do you think I dont buy moderate meaningful reasonable amount? You think i earn 40-50k a month? When I first started, I was only manager earning around 4K+... how to sailang? you teach me?

The difference between you and me is i buy reasonable, moderate amounts every quarter, ever year for 9 years straight. On one stock.

You can call me lucky, I call it understanding the business.

You say hengyuan business very very good, I ask you why Shell sold it in the first place if business damn good. They sold 51% for 66m USD (120 million for the whole thing at below bursa market rate that time?)

You pick a stock go up from RM3 to RM18 you say you are pro. I ask you why would you EVEN consider buying a stock that oscillate that much in 1 year.

You call Hengyuan stock a good buy. I think not.

Luckily you never sailang on hengyuan.

Full disclosure: I did go nuts and sailang 200K in QL 2009. but after is just regular reading of quarterly reports and regular purchases of reasonable, moderate amount every quarter. I dont have the clout of a KYY to go all in and keep buying until become biggest shareholder in a couple of months.

I took 9 years to build my shareholding until now.

Just because you capslock everything doesn't make it true. And since your idea of identifying a growth stock is so shallow which is base only on nta, earnings and revenue, I hope you don't go around recommending and preaching.

If I invest in "growth" the way you do, I long time bankrupt edi.

Sadly, speaking from personal experience here....

SSLEE, if you have never owed money, you would never know the hells of which it can cause.

Late settlement fee.
lawyer fees.
Penalty payments.
Repossesion charges.

all these hidden costs that you dont know will pile up fast and hard.

Tax on the ignorant, indeed.

Why do you think there is a callcenter for credit card debt?

Raider really said that hengyuan at 15 has margin of safety?

Why Master Sifu Stockraider... I thought I could trust you. I thought you knew the meaning of overvalued?

Were you and choivo both buying at the exact same time KYY was selling? Didnt he tell you he was selling?

Margin of safety indeed.

Wow! SSLEE you agree with this? YOU REALLY AGREE WITH LENDING TO IGNORANT PUBLIC AT 18% A YEAR. YOU DONT SEE HOW GAMBLING AND LENDING TO A 20 YEAR OLD KID WHO THINKS HE FOUND FREE MONEY BUT DOESNT REALIZE WHAT 18% INTEREST REALLY MEANS?

I lose all respect for you.

Coming from a poor family and a fellow UM student. I thought you of ALL people would balk at investing in these kind of companies...

You have your margin of safety, I wonder what my margin of safety is?

I think even if ql market cap drop by half I still earning money.

Haha.

Jester, don't forget to support master sifu stockraider and buy his INSAS ya.

Any anger and loses in INSAS you may direct to him.

But if making money, just remember I told you first to buy INSAS ya.

ok yes stockraider sifu. You are the new warren buffet ben graham. your stock picks sure win one!

but how come you keep laughing at jaks? it went from 0.42 now to 0.58

that one no margin of safety? so undervalued now? shouldn't we buy?
qqq sifu already make 20% profit... so much more than me or you right now with insas and ql.

oh gosh? but dare he sailang?

no. Smart men who know they are trading will bet but never bet too big.

those who dont know they are trading but think they are value investing like sslee and raider are those who will hurt in the long run.

EXACTLY!

You also forgot the part where graham was applying his value investing theory during the stock market crash of 1929. In the end he still believes in the concept of efficient markets. same like mr stockraider here.

if you believe in efficient markets value investing,cigar butt investing? you follow ben graham... and stockraider.

if you believe in business growth value investing, you follow charlie munger and warren bufett. you dont be cheap when buying

and also this.
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/ben-graham-totally-discredits-value-investing-at-the-end-of-his-career

and also this.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bengraham.asp

in a market recession, people like stockraider and calvin tan platinum balls will shrink.

Those like warren buffett who have their eye on wonderful companies... they start buying.

Sure thing raider.

It sounds so possible doesnt it. I'm sure you made many millions, and never had to cut loss ever.

just keep buy and sell buy and sell.

OK lah.

I respect you as STOCK SIFU la.

multi bagger king, every in and out sure money sure win!

I'm just putting it up here.

0.67 1st january you put in 40% of your networth. Hold for 2 years see how la. NTA 2.54 right? using your metrics, you will immediately sell at rm1.9? Good la. See how it goes in 2 years.

waiting to treat master sifu raider some good old BKT in Klang.

Excellent, do give them a call and post on this page. The first step to learning is to never believe everything.

Question everything.

Learn yourself and don't follow what the sifus ask you to do.

FYI, if HARTA and TOPGLOV hit pe12? I might just increase my margin account and go all in.
Probably HARTA, it's growth and profit margins has been phenomenal.

But I am of course not promoting using margin loan to uneducated public (and Jon choivo).

You should only consider margin loan when a wonderful business is selling at very very (very) fair valuation.

Problem is defining that wonderful business.

If you stick to the fact that:

99% of businesses out there is crap that you should avoid,

I think you will do alright.

I still don't get those who have 30+, 120 stocks in their portfolio. That's insane!

How do you sleep at night? I wouldn't be able to.

Hi lazycat,
I may be wrong, because I haven't been using margin for a while. But I think you can refer here.

https://ringgitplus.com/en/share-margin-financing/Maybank-Share-Margin-Financing.html

FYI, this is guaranteed money we are taking about, the shares in bursa have a limit down rule, so if the share price dropped too low, you will be forced to do margin call.

There is no way to lose money doing this kind of loans. It is guaranteed 100% margin of safety. The system automatically sells shares for you, unless you tell your remiser.

Charging 25% lending to risky assets yes. Margin of safety.
Charging 4% for fixed deposit. High margin of safety.
Charging 1.25% for securities margin loan. Highest margin of safety. Absolutely zero risk with liquid collateral in shares that you can immediately offload at 72% margin call.

Makes business sense?

Dear sslee, please check your information again.

I invest in public bank, and they do banking in a very direct way.

You look and RCECAP again, look at their lending base, look at their customers they are lending to and how they are going about borrowing to them. In the annual report they actually say they go visit face to face to government servant and get them to borrow money to fund lifestyle.

Now look at the rates of borrowing. If you borrow money to uneducated public at 5%, 10% rates I am ok. If you start borrowing to them at huge amounts at 18%+24% rates you are just being a loanshark.

Only a loan shark would borrow money to people who can't get loans anywhere else at high rates, double their investment in 3 years with government support. Karma in the form of npl will definitely come back to bite them in the ass in the long term. Only a fool would believe you can borrow money to people who can't pay it back a good idea.

During the financial crisis, Warren buffet wanted to buy a business. The only lenders were from Kuwait. He decided not to take it, knowing that borrowing is easy, but when it comes time to pay he had to convert the dollar to dinar. And only Kuwait will tell you how much the exchange rate is.