My broker recommended this counter to me. But I see that company has no focus as 3 areas of activity. Revenues go down. There is PN17 application, but would like to see good news about business, not just legal prospect. Will keep digging here.

I see that BAB is issuing shares to management. They do it at 0.75. So the price is reasonable, but they will probably be acuired if stock goes above the price. Fair enough. Let them bring it up 10 sens.
--------------------------------------------
Listing Date
10-May-2023
Management Incentive Plan
No. of shared issued
92,800
Issue Price
MYR 0.754

Great news about this Dorado FPSO project in West Australia. Remember that there is also Tuna opportunity in Asia (Indonesia). So it is not only Total Cameia, but a few other options as well.

AI content for Armada (I think, as it is so plain)
A bit overconfident as estimate is usually not precise. Maybe +/- 20%
So, how you miss it by 1.9% ?
But this AI catches one thing. Revenues will decrease.
My point is that new project is really needed.
I noticed that workforce decreased from 2k to 900. Not a good sign long term.
Cannot downsize perpetually.
---
Full year 2022 BAB earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations
Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.9%.
Revenue is expected to decline by 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Energy Services industry in Malaysia are expected to grow by 1.2%.

Whatever model they use: lease, JV, EPCC, etc., they better have somethings as it has been long since last project. I am NOT for having a big order book as the inflation, scarcity of supply will likely bring prices up. But there should be some deals or better prospects.
One important item for us, investors, is that it takes many years to sign the deals, deliver, operate and have contract renewed or terminated. We will likely move on to new opportunities and let others take the risk. I will be out for sure when P/E is 10+.

Gabriel, I started to read BA annual report. First 40 pages are about ESG. I was a bit worried that they may not priotized performance, but I realize that ESG is good for rating as investor's bank feature it prominently, so be it. Not going to complain about it at annual meeting.
:-)

Thanks Niki for the explanation about queue jumping and getting better deal than asked due to the opening price. I have not experienced it in the past, as the broker was doing the orders for me (at RHB), but now with a discount broker I have that bonus available.

Since I have now some time between contracts having finished an FPSO in Korea, I will put extra diligence into this counter and similar ones. Seems like there are a few opportunities for us. I had Yinson for 10 years, so longer experience in this investment area than most. From all I know, it is NOT the time to sell Armada yet.

It became very quiet here. I used to have this stock for about 5 years, then exited. I am now considering coming back. There is value in carimin. I expect oil to rally this year.

It is buying time for me.
I put a bid online for 0.66 sens this morning and just got an email stating that I purchased some for 0.65.
I do not even know how this is possible. I thought they matched offer and bid.
Anyway, a small trade position for a short term profit knowing that BA appreciates a few days after good news.
Assuming oil bounces back.

What an amazing opportunity this company presents to investors. Cannot get much cheaper than this.
I read many predictions here. 0.095 caught my eye.
THE RULE ABOUT PREDICTION:

NEVER PREDICT BOTH THE PRICE AND THE TIME.

JUST PREDICT ONE OF THE TWO.

Looks like insiders were in the know and bought in anticipation of news release last week, driving the price up. Did not make much profit as there was no gap up. It was 'Investorking' (may he reign in peace) that supported the operator controlling price theory being always ahead of us, small investors.

From my long armada experience, there is usually a drop following good news, but then it regains lost value in a few days. So let us hope for a good end of week. It is all in line with BAB tough love that longs has been received, but better times ahead of us.

Let's start another week. Something tells me that it will be a good one. We are long overdue for some positive news.

Eid Mubarak or Salamat Hari Raya
:-)

In case you missed it, Kenanga gives BA target 0.75. Within reach this quorter, in my opinion.
.........................................
We maintain NEUTRAL on the sector, given limited catalyst for big-cap names, with our sector top picks such as ARMADA (OP, TP: RM0.75) and WASEONG (OP, TP: RM0.97).

Today is a difficult day for BA longs.
Like women in abusive relationships, we are accustomed to pain, abuse, putdowns on this board.
Ralies are usually short lived, followed by quick retracing the lows.
And here it is again, all indicators green, up on a red day, positive news expected.
Let us try to learn new ways of this counter.
I believe 1 MYR is possible in the near future. Experienced it with other counters, like carimin.

Today BA is up 5%, but Yinson is down 1%. What an unusual day, considering tha crude is down.
I know from experience that armada did not fail to disappoint us in the past, so sure we will lose some gains soon.
But I have to admit that our counter is surprising us more frequently on the positive recently.
Way to go.

Hello xxx, you have 1 new important update for ARMADA
Bumi Armada Berhad
ARMADA
Share Price 7 Day 1 Year
0.65 2.4% 53.6%
Now 20% undervalued
Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 37%.
The fair value is estimated to be RM0.81, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only.
Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 77%.
For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 1.2% per annum. Earnings is forecast to grow by 3.1% per annum over the same time period

Even before the discussion of the dividends here, I was of the opinion that should it be declared, I would not sell my stake, but rather use the payments for other investments. If other stakeholders think the same, this would be beneficial for the price.
Overall, considering that this company was started at 3 myr ++ and had buy recommendations about 10 years ago, it sure is disappointing for their investors. However, it paid dividend at that time, or there was expectation thereof. Lets hope expectation or possibility will become a factor soon.

Gold break through to 2040 USD per ounce. Seems commodity bull cycle has started.

Very recent update from Kenanga:
All three of our Bursa-listed FPSO players, i.e. YINSON, MISC (MP; TP: RM7.50), and ARMADA, have been actively participating in international job bids, with opportunities emerging from Latin America, Asia Pacific and Africa. The FPSO space is starting to see a supply squeeze – i.e., many global FPSO players are already pre-occupied with jobs developing at hand, and hence, more recent bids have started to see very few bidders, making it very much an operator market.

Today both Yinson and Armada are both up 3 sens on the crude oil price increase.
That makes 1% profit for yinson, but 5%+ for BAB.
Ah, the investments in cheap stocks. When they pay off, they do it in a BIG way.
Glad I switched.
Now, the same reward will be achieved when these companies increase earnigs by a couple of sens.

MM78, with oil at 84 USD I expect BAB to reach 85 sens soon.
:-)
Posted by MM78 > 14 hours ago | Report Abuse

Look forward for it to go beyond 80 sens soon

At 79.94 USD per barrel, how long before we reach 80 usd.... See below ....
OPEC+ has unexpectedly announced an oil production reduction of over 1 million barrels per day, limiting output from May. Saudi Arabia spearheaded the cartel's efforts by committing to a 500,000-barrel reduction of its own production.
According to the Saudi Press Agency, a Ministry of Energy official stated the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will "implement a voluntary cut of 500 thousand barrels per day from May till the end of 2023."
The cut will be in coordination with other OPEC and non-OPEC participating countries in the declaration of cooperation, the state-run media outlet continued.

Note that once Armada Sterling V starts producing next month, start up expenses will be replaced with the lease revenues. Financials will improve ...

It goes to Europe for conversion. Then to be resold.
Bumi options:
As for the Armada Claire FPSO, its Malaysian owner Bumi Armada has been seeking a buyer or a redeployment opportunity for some time. Bumi said last month in its annual financial results that it was engaging with potential buyers of the vessel, and numerous vessel inspections had been carried out.
Malaysian floater player pins down strategy for African FPSO. Market sources have told Upstream that a sale agreement has been reached — but not yet completed —with a European shipowner that has designs on redeploying, or re-selling, the FPSO to another party.
A spokesperson for Bumi said the company was unable to comment on the Armada Claire at this moment in time.

The Armada Claire, which is understood to be currently moored in Indonesia, was converted into an FPSO by Keppel Shipyard in 2013 from a 1993-built tanker.
The vessel has an oil production capacity of 30,000 barrels per day and a storage capacity of 800,000 bpd.
It has worked on just one project - the Balnaves oilfield off Western Australia - which ended prematurely in 2016 when Woodside terminated the FPSO's contract.

This forum is very quiet, yet news is positive ... Kenanga upgrade to 7.50 is nice. And also new activity in the oil and gas fpso sector.
The fate of two ageing floating production, storage and offloading vessels that have not operated for some time is becoming clearer as fresh assignments loom under new owners and the number of units available for redeployment dwindles.
The two vessels in question are the BW Opportunity FPSO, and the Armada Claire FPSO.

This is fantastic news. I was getting tired of hearing about Armada Claire status and legal case...

The fate of two ageing floating production, storage and offloading vessels that have not operated for some time is becoming clearer as fresh assignments loom under new owners and the number of units available for redeployment dwindles.
The two vessels in question are the BW Opportunity FPSO, and the Armada Claire FPSO.

Tomorrow last day of the Q1 2023. Should be a good one.
I see that en(er)quest rallied on good result. Kraaken must be ok.
Only 1 day of production and risk ... so my guess is 99% production availability.

Dogs bark, but caravan goes on.
So does BA.
What a nice day.
Still room left to go up as oil 78 USD so BA target 78 sens.

I see oil at 70++ .... 80 cominng soon.
That will bring BAB to 80 sens.
All here know that BAB is DIRECTLY related to crude oil price.
It is like mining company and gold.

Crude prices rose more than 3% Monday as disruption of half a million barrels a day of Kurdish supply, nuclear war talk by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and assurances about the crisis-hit U.S. banking sector helped boost risk-on appetite in oil

Above 60 sen is a very bullish sign for Armada. New support being established. It used to be 40's last year.

Even better, those who have losses can buy more armada shares and sell at profit soon, likely after Q1 earnings ...

5 does it for BAB, specially with Yinson fully booked.
Petronas aims to engage up to two floaters in the near term, but is looking at options to make them commercially viable
By Nishant Ugal , Russell Searancke and Amanda Battersby in New Delhi , Oslo and Singapore
Leading floating production, storage and offloading vessel contractors are eyeing at least five promising floater prospects in Southeast Asia, hoping that robust oil prices could lead to faster decision-making on several offshore projects.
Several market sources told Upstream that multiple FPSO projects in the region are expected to gain momentum in the coming months, with Malaysian state giant Petronas expected to lead the way with up to two potential floater requirements in the near term — Kelidang offshore Brunei Darussalam and an integrated development centred around the Limbayong and Bestari fields offshore Sabah, East Malaysia.

This was an excellent company 5 years ago, but now it became too expensive. No longer a story. Tough reality.
But I went through the documents online and still a buy in my eyes. Revenue is the key to value here.

From analyst ...
Bumi Armada Berhad ARMADA
Share Price 7 Day 1 Year
0.63 -8.8% 50.6%
Now 21% undervalued
Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 26%.
The fair value is estimated to be RM0.79, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only.
Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 77%.
For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 1.2% per annum. Earnings is forecast to grow by 3.1% per annum over the same time period.

So they got 125 mln for an old FPSO, similar to Armada Claire and with a very bad karma of industrial accident. Armada is no BW branding, but should result in some good bucks for Claire.
........
Floater specialist BW Offshore has struck a deal to sell its floating production storage and offloading vessel BW Opportunity for $125m.

First oil from AS #5 expected in May '23.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/getmanup_engineering-oilandgas-oilfielddevelopment-activity-7039583187584397312-jteP?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

It has to hurt. 0.06 drop despite agogo success.

With the bad market we experience this week, it is really fortunate that Armada did not achieve first oil or new contract under the circumstances. Good news would go to waste.
It is not just about the success, the timing of it is important too.
Let's wait a few days for dark clouds to disperse. Monday is another week.

The action on the price of Armada is very encouraging today. But I still keep my stake in it until:
1. Armada Sterling V produces first oil.
2. QE improve as profits from 1 will replace costs.
3. New project is anounced.
The above should cause rating upgrades and upswing to fair value. Then I cash in.

Want to throw a big party to celebrate the gains of this counter ? Why not do it at sea.
Armada Claire has overnight acommodation for 63. This could be a good birthday group. Baby shower, etc.
Disconnectible external turret allows you to change location.
Here is the listing .... at eurobrokers.
https://www.ship-broker.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/FPSO-Armada-Claire-lim.pdf

My bet is that Armada Claire will be sold. This would be excellent news, as the facility is there. No need for new financing. And instead of liability, we may have cash.
Total Camaia will take some time. Final committment will be proceded by negotiations and intention letters. And Armada insiders would not be confident until it happens to affect price that much. They know that sale is imminent if they have an offer and consider conditions.

Please repost Niki. Maybe someone wants only his messages to be here.

So we have global debt crisis leading to economic crash. Crude oil oversupply. Russian war destrying confidence of investors. Transition to green energy. Syndicate dumping in a pump and dump scheme.
Stock of BAB is stable. Seems like bad news already priced in. May be good time to buy more.

I also remember AGOGO going to Yinson. And at that time TUNA became an option. Indonesia is within BA interest area.

I congratulate long timers who made profit and exited. Good for you. Support us on re-entry.
Soon we will have many new investors here. At 50+ sens. I look forward to hearing from them.
There was a very high volume, so the ownership have changed significantly.

Remember that around the QE anouncement BAB reaches highs. And also remember that the stock plummeted early in 2022 on the fears of not getting paid about 50 millions USD for vessels sold to Russia. Vessels were paid. Construction and pipe laying vessels in the caspians received Lukoil contracts. And we only returned to the pre Ukraine war valuation levels. There is room to go higher. Earnings, gearing, contracts nothwithstanding as they only improved ...

Wow, so quiet here. I would expect a few happy people commenting.
I remember when this was a turnaround story, 3 years ago, we had maybe 50 messages on a good day like today.

Which shows me that when armada becomes a story again, we could be at much higher level.
Oil and gas stocks are bought by hedging funds and other boring capital. They are cautious, so are the moves up and down. The excitement of the general public ...

Thanks for a good example. From my experience, I spent more than a year offshore trying to start up a facility, and it was NOT even ready for start up when I moved to a new project. Fingers crossed for armada sterling 2. Company needs a positive story for new contracts. Suing a client does not win hearts. Let's hope for a change of narrative.

Thanks for update, Niki. I work in oil and gas, and my last floating projects took months to commission. One about 2 years, and still faces shutdowns. But sure I hope for a quick first oil for BAB. To the first cargo drop soon