What i can tell you, is that projecting just 1.5% growth for northern highways, is already very very optimistic.

In any event, i've said too much, i can't comment any further.

Uptrending,

That is 2017 bro, that is 1 year after they did the 4th lane widening.

NSE northern traffic is 30% less than southern.

Heavy vehicles is a bad thing actually, most highways would rather they dont travel on their roads as it results in much higher maintenance cost.

you should also note WCE toll rate is actually higher than NSE.

uptrending,

You should know, every highway, when built, losses money for about 10 years. Before traffic catches up at some point down the line. I can tell you, 70% of highways in Malaysia is effectively bankrupt, its a murderous business that only looks profitable, if you don't see the capex etc properly.

Northern highway growth rates is about sub 1% per year as a whole. Central region is about 2%. Southern region is about 2% as well.

A new highway, can probably hit about 6-7% growth for about 5 years plus before maturing, to 1-2% growth.

Put those assumptions in and tell me what do you think.

I just have this feeling the govt, will just swallow back this concession.

Yistock man.

Takeprofits:

Never been better. If not for some foreign stocks being unduly cheap, i might actually buy more.

The problem is not the loan being dished out indiscriminately, they do well in their credit assessment etc.

Its in the potential of the ANGKASA codes being given to banks, instead of just Co-ops. This is my main worry.

I'm still thinking about buying some back, not as large as my previous position, but some. Once i get a little more clarity on the political sentiment regarding government servant loans.

Having said that, the market now does show quite a few interesting opportunities, that do not any political risk. Which is nice.


Hello TakeProfits,

How are you enjoying your BIMB WA profits? Haha. Despite thinking so much about BIMB warrants and the company, i didnt buy a single warrant. Shame.

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VSLSB @Johnathan Choi: Didn't you write an article about a potential black swan behind RCECAP from Angkasa loans being dished out indescriminately? Despite the fact, why would you still go into RCECAP?
25/09/2019 1:07 PM

I sold at 1.65 due to better opportunities. Thinking of buying again.

As always phillip, your analysis fails to take into account Expected Value.

Nothing to do ah, restructure what, only 230 mil plus debt, with 800m equity. Want to settle, just sell off some investment prop mai done liao.

Even include LKY portion, just need to sell off all investment prop and some inventory mai settle d.

Fabien,

I wonder why did i not rebuy magnitech at Rm4.5. Till today i feel blur.

I bought more Aeoncr. Topped up airasia, lctitan, and pchem. Studying more on foreign stocks now.

It went up quite abit some time after he bought, but ended at zero, that is correct.

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supersaiyan3 I remembered you recommend UNIMECH-WA??

Did it go to ZERO??
10/07/2019 10:50 PM

As a short to mid term punt, this is interesting.

I really like the boss and management still tbh.

How do you mean "I told you so".

Your article basically said nothing.

Id just rather buy more petronm instead of rcecap at this price. Or more of the other HK stocks.

Well, i hold the same view for RCE. Non withstanding the change in political aspect, i would be more than happy for the price to keep falling. Having said that, RCE Capital is still doing fine tbh. Or even great.

Now that the political aspect thing seems to have died down, i might buy some back. I just have better things to own.

I still have no idea why in my great stupidity, i did not buy some at 13.1, despite thinking this is one of the best insurance co in malaysia.

Valuation is fair, not below, but still.

Dear SSlee,

No idea. Too little details.

Haha bought abit more.

In my 2018 Update, i stated the following.


"If anything, the bearish market of 2018, and hopefully 2019 and 2020 are very good things for those such as us, who are likely to be long term buyer of stocks. It’s very simple, lower prices allow you to buy more stock.

Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including those who will be long term net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance.

These people resemble a car driver who rejoices after the price of petrol increases, simply because his tank contains a week's supply."


I'm quite happy with the performance of PETRONM given the macroeconomic factors. If "bleeding" means lower stock prices. I'll drink to it bleeding below RM5, or RM4, or RM3, or even RM0.1, given no change in fundamentals. The moment it breaks RM3, ill pop open the champagne i've been keeping for awhile to celebrate.

The amount of shares i own for Petronm now, is only a small portion of what i intend to own throughout my lifetime.

Im surpised taxes didnt go up this q. Im fairly certain their unrecognized allowances are finished. Hmm oh well. Growth was higher than expected. Interesting.

Quite happy to be able to buy more.

I was waiting for this quarter result to fully test my thesis, and with these results i gotten the confidence level i need. Quite glad that my cost was only 1.5% extra.

Within expectations. I expected zero profit or around there from refinery, but with profit of about 50m from retailing.

Looks about right, though the derivative gain was more than expected. All in all, pretty good q.

Probably around the right time to buy some. I dont mind waiting for below Rm1 though.

Interesting.

Despite my best efforts, i seem to rarely be able to buy the bottom. Hahaha

Titus,

I look 10 years. Not so sure what will happen in Q3. However, i think it will be better.

Pchem their spreads is very different from those of LCTITAN, PETRONM etc.

Having said that, we might be looking at some stockholding loss.

Accidentally bought double the amount i meant to buy. Zz

Huatexpert,

Also need to do maintenance capex. Their plant is not exactly young.

Like that 2018 everyone banned. Hahaha
====
paperplane IF RETURN <3.10% OF FD return by end of competition, those investors should be barred from participating next year. We got reserve for top10, also need to penalise those return less than FD.

hehe. Hows the suggestion?
31/07/2019 11:34 PM

Btw, to an extent Phillip is right, though for the wrong reasons (he thought the allowances were going to expire). Haha

I expect next Q to be lower due to taxes. Due to unrecognized capital allowance being finished this quarter. Next quarter onward, tax should go back up to ~ 23%.

This looks interesting, might be time to buy more.

Haha completely forget about this thing and didn't update my div's. Felt weird why this one is so much lower, while my own portolio didn't change much.

Outliar. By then of course i will, assuming no change in fundamentals.

Outliar, petron close to max position already at 15%.

This one, triple to 3%. Haha.

Im looking alot more at foreign stocks now.

Tripled my position.

Phillip,

Not to hold your old age against you, but you missed this sentence.

"Nobody conned them. Those are industries that whose fundamentals were destroyed."

You might want to consider new glasses.

If there's one thing i learn from this article, i must add one more step to my own analysis.

5-10 year cashflows.

I do study it, but normally, its just a quick look, i don't list them all out like this.

Thanks KC.

KS55,

Nobody conned them. Those are industries that whose fundamentals were destroyed.

You can barely think of one company in those industries making above average profits.

No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell.

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probability and..oh my... the article coming from the man of highest 'ethics' - moral value in i3 investing community..
06/07/2019 5:46 PM

I prefer Allianz for insurance Co. Though its more ex.

Why tunepro? I don't think it has any edge in non travel insurance areas.

Cheoky,

It would be best if the rich people, many of which like to gamble and have not much brain, buy more tickets, let them help alleviate property overhang.

Essentially, the only thing this changes, is that facilitates turning property to money for developers (at a small profit), and turning cash to property for people who want to buy property and/or those who feel like gambling.

Probability,

I'm going to be real with you, property valuation people have the most useless job in the world.

Their valuation consist of google against comparative property selling price.

They don't take into account that property is now already hot, reversion to mean etc.

Ever wonder why Bank Valuation these days always seem to be higher than loan amount approved, even thought the property can barely yield 2-3%?

Like it or not house values need to go down unless

1) Productivity per capital / GDP per capita go up faster
2) Population density in urban areas multiply

Both seem unlikely.

This method merely frees up the money even more. By opening up the "fun money" part.

Technically people would be getting the houses at a discount (even to real selling price), as property developers would rather sell direct, but since they can't, they sell to the spv at a steeper discount.

===

Cheoky,
Buy 1 ticket or buy 1000 ticket, no difference, EV is the same. You win or lose more only.

Beware when a trader tell you its an investment.

I would suggest against it.
====
Icon8888 sifu philips, UEM Edgenta good or not good ?
01/07/2019 2:47 PM

interesting.

I dont like how they didnt explain much.

I guess we should note this.

No matter how amazing the boss, Liew Kee Sin is not god and cannot predict your quarters like clockwork.

At best you can say that in 10 years, should have good outcome. But still not cheap enough for me.

hmmm

By definition, you always don't know what you don't know.

That's why you get a margin of safety, and constantly search for information that conflicts with your own understanding.

Its a 17% position. My net cost is 7 flat. So i'm down 11% on it, or 1.65% overall.

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Posted by Outliar > Jun 21, 2019 12:01 AM | Report Abuse

Getting RCE'd means not knowing what you don't know. Im sure your cost of Petron is much higher than the price now.