Try doing it from 3 years before ipo. You can get those data from the prospectus

I think you should consider an owners earnings analysis on AirAsia.

It's quite interesting, id like to see what conclusions you'll make on it.

Thanks Mr tan for organizing this every year.

PETRONM 30%
TIMECOM 15%
BAUTO 15%
AEONCR 10%
RCECAP 10%
LCTITAN 5%
FAVCO 5%
HLIND 5%
ALLIANZ 5%

Phillip,

What have you been taking man.

Which person on earth will rather be a main contractor than a PDP?

PDP, zero risk, cost plus, do whatever you want lah.

Main contractor, you better hit the price and the specs or you die.

There is no way, by changing to main contractor their profit will be higher than PDP.



===
Previously as PDP they were coated at 6% of project cost,, we estimated 16 billion returns to be 960 million, half of which will bring to gkent. Earnings.

As a main contractor which is in charge of redesign and build, they will be able to squeeze even more profits now that they no longer need to higher crony contractors and can sub to the best contractors and cheapest prices.

"Your investment thesis ( since 2018 I believe), was based on rcecapital is based on a fallacy that has nothing to do with short term price ( which you like to always say you are a long term investor, but seem to only look at share price models only)."


Huh? Examples?
====
"You seem to be very loose with figures recently, as shown by your recent article on Serba dinamik."


I do not have a need to be proven right, as i found out my excel links were erroneous, i amended it. The gist of it still stands.
====

"Also fyi, from share chart, beginning of the year your rce was 1.46, latest price is 1.66. do the math and let me know your returns again?

I'd dearly like to know how you achieved your 22% returns on rce again? Unless you included your dividends reinvested?"


Yes, you need to include dividends of 10 cents paid in 2019. As of the date i replied it was a little higher. Unless you now want to argue dividends does not count towards returns in order to keep your face?

===

You remind of my Chomsky, brilliant, but a strong ideologue and egoist, which affected his ability to think straight, as the natural conclusion will result in him being wrong.

If my RCE which has gone up 22% this year is a glaring idiocy under your book, i wonder what does that make your decision on PCHEM which has gone down 17%.

===
Posted by Philip Greta > Dec 22, 2019 11:34 PM | Report Abuse

Choivo has been wrong many times before. His rm5000 research paper into rce capital is one glaring idiocy.

Haha my petron is easily 5-6 times the size of my aeoncr position. Just bought a bit more that day, and im honestly a bit itchy to buy more.

Haha it does sound a little like that.

Well, it was just rare that I met someone who matched up intellectually with me, except had far greater life experience.

Please. You think audit partner actually really know the accounts ?

At the end of the day, the work is done by the senior in charge and the manager who has the trust of the partner.

Well, I don't claim to fully understand this business, I'm just saying the numbers don't look that good

tell me your understanding of the business then. I dont think you understand it beyond every year accounting profit go up.

My preference is wonderful company, but price matters, as well as my own circle of competence.

Very hard to find wonderful company at good or fair price.

Tsmc is pretty decent lah

Well, if they can keep all the jobs coming in and growing, the capex may very well be an incredible investment.

Having said that, I recently spoke with a friend who audited saprng and their project finance reporting manager.

In essence, due to the sheer amount of capex they had, which was all backed by borrowings, despite the oil slowdown they have no choice but to take projects. And 70% of them are loss making, even without taking into account financing cost.

Its that hard and risky

Hope so, the numbers were completely wrong due to the linking error, very paiseh now.

Deleted it liao because it took too long, now i cannot find it d.

As some of you may have noticed, my article on Serba Dinamik have been linked to the stock page.

However, I have to note here very clearly that i have made an error in my excel links. It is hugely embarrassing and the reality is not nearly as bad as it seems.

The numbers for (Owners Earnings Ex Capital Expenditure) in this article is therefore FACTUALLY INCORRECT. And the company did not deserve the same phrases used in describing it in this article.

I have tried to amend it as soon as i've discovered the error, but it was too late, and it was already linked to the stock page.

I have deleted this article in my dashboard but for some reason it is still here. I have informed the admins to take it down.

The article with the corrected numbers is here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2019-12-22-story-h1481887654-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Something_is_weird_in_the_State_of_Serba_Dinamik_Holdin.jsp

Kindly take note.

I have to note here very clearly that i have made an error in my excel links. It is hugely embarrassing and the reality is not as bad as it seems.

The numbers for (Owners Earnings Ex Capital Expenditure) in this article is therefore factually incorrect.

The company did not deserve the same phrases used in describing it in this article.

The article with the corrected numbers is here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2019-12-22-story-h1481887654-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Something_is_weird_in_the_State_of_Serba_Dinamik_Holdin.jsp

I have deleted this article in my dashboard but for some reason it is still here. I have informed the admins to take it down.

Kindly take note.

Lol i bought abit just before the quarter results come out.

Still pretty interesting, maybe i should be waiting till its stupidly cheap before topping up,

I dunno why these days, i find it quite difficult to put a precise number or range on Airasia fair value.

True. It may very well get to that price if the QR's are matched with a financial crisis.

That would be very interesting.

I wished i followed WB and sailang into apple at Dec 2018.

Sslee,

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/the-art-of-valuing-insurance-companies-and-why-teh-hong-piow-is-a-god-lpi/

The problem with Tunepro for me is,

1) They tried to go into general insurance, which is not their edge, travel insurance division is incredibly profitable.

2) Their fund management for the investment is quite bad, some of it is in unit trust, which are just stupid and inefficient. If you dont know what to do, put it in the S&P500 index or smtg. The rest are in MGS.

3) Everyone sells car insurance online now. But health, life, savings plan etc those are usually not sold online. TUNEPRO is not doing anything in trying to do that. If they did, they can cut the 6% first year, 4% second year commission and cost, giving them a huge edge. But they are not. So..

I recently re-buy some at 0.570, but very small position, mainly because its cheap.

Its not about the visionary of the management, but the economics of the business first. Unless they actually know how to run an investment fund on their own and do general insurance, i find it hard to see their edge.

I quite like the business. The one thing about that co that is not so good was that the management did not leverage up as they should (since its a financial institution they are running) and instead decided to do non stop rights issue.

Recently the management have decided that they would like to leverage up. So that is a good thing.

Second part is that, the payees can't direct transfer in the payments, but have to go to the counter to make payment, which i find very odd.

Of course, this could very well be an edge, if your entire customer base is under banked, but its odd.

===
hpcp Hi Choivo, thanks for the article. What do you think of elkdesa, which has better NPL ratio and business has been growing consistently
21/12/2019 7:32 PM

If no money to be made in airlines, the 2 bil come from where?

====
Kendo Ken Hz Obviouslt no money to be made in airline, thus tf pocketed 2 bil cash, , while non air income is taking 3 to 5 years to see fruit..be patient for those who choose to stay
09/12/2019 3:00 PM

Sold for a profit early this year bro.

===
Sslee Hahahaha,
Choivo's Insas warrant going to end up as ZERO.

Haha i sold, im out.

My first 100% stock, but the position was damn small zz.

To an extent icon etc is correct.

If earnings grow 30 times over the last 10 years with no dilution in shares, the share price should grow 30 times of more as well.

===

Now, when it comes to frying stocks for next year, the possibility of earning growth in the near term (regardless of how endurable it is) and the ability of your stock fryer to make a convincing story is key.

Chances are if you buy palm stocks now, you can ride it a bit till the next quarter. Now, will high palm price, result in lower demand, and thus lower prices in 6 months etc?

That one, you know can d, keep quiet, if other people also know, how to fry the price?

The key thing is to lead the lamb to slaughter.

And not swallow your own bullshit.

Ricky,

Your patience is legendary.

===
Let me put things this way. I have no doubt that Ricky will end up very rich 10-20 years in the future.

As for some of you, i have no idea if you will even still be in the market then.

===

This year, what i tried really hard to learn is trading. And i don't think it suits me other than in certain scenarios, where the risk reward probabilities is so clearly skewed.

As for reading market sentiment, i'm not sure i want to go down that rabbit hole.

I much better at buying palm oil stocks on the way down and at the bottom. Not so good at buying it when its going up.

Basically,

what ricky is saying

Don't confuse investing with trading and trading with investing.

You can bullshit on the forums about how its a good investment, but you better not swallow your own bullshit.

If you do that, you turn a bad trade into a mediocre long term investment.

Really go holland then.

There is an advantage to long term investing vs short term trading. You can put far bigger sizes, you sleep better, you have time for a more enriching life (for me at least).

Its not the adoption of MFRS9 here, its the change in assumptions in calculating their ECL.

====
xiaotee Silverhawk: Hope so, but why do you think so? Wouldn't the MFRS 9 accounting depress the net income for at least 12 months?
12/11/2019 9:40 PM

Sounds like the time to buy layhong.

Lol that explains, was wondering why its shot up so strongly.

Well this is my first 100% stock lol. But its was only a 1% position. LOL!

====
SgMas OTB bought 100K units @ 0.86 yesterday & only informed members last night. This morning members chased during opening @ 1.00 and OTB already laughing to the bank with RM14,000.00.
Member paying RM1,000 fees to get out of date recommendations.
03/12/2019 11:22 AM

Jared diamond is a god.

====
Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > Nov 27, 2019 1:53 PM | Report Abuse

i currently reading Factfulness. Had completed the Jared Diamond's trilogy

Owners Earnings!

Gee, where is that davidtslim article telling you this company will make 400m per year for the next 10 years,.

Im guessing that the unrecognized tax losses can be used.

in which case, TIME will not need to pay tax for another year.

OK, im now a little confused. I figured their unrecognized allowances should be fully recognized, by now and tax expense should start to increase. However, i'm not seeing this. Interesting.

Have you seen the rating report from RAM?

Look at their traffic projections, its way too high.

My rce sold at one month after the 3rd year anniversary actually. :)

No idea why this is relevant though.

Connie,

Lets make a fun bet ok.

You prepare a portfolio of stocks, i just pick one petron. 3 year later, see which one higher.

Loser donate 10k to nasi lemak auntie to expand business.

Connie,

My rce capital post, people tell me, after they read, they get confused, dunno should buy anot. At least 30% of the article, detailing and the risk and the dangers. Good and bad inside, make people confuse only.

While david's one, after you read, he is clearly telling you, "SAILANG NOW", not a word on risk etc.

Now my RCE, why i sold? I think you can find the article explaining it. David when he sell, got tell you ah?

And my RCE, after i sell, it continue going up summore.

The sign of a good investor, is that he sells a good investment for a better one. This should mean over a long period, the price increase of the second should exceed the first. (this is clearly not the case for me the last 2-3 months lol, though my genting warrants and mother did ok)

David one leh?

MASTEEL, ANJOO, MUDA, HENGYUAN, LIONIND, LCTITAN etc. I dont need to explain more lah.

Which is, to be fair, the mark of a good trader or goreng artist. After you sell, it goes up abit more before crashing down to holland (the going up abit part is optional).

Very long never see Connie posting d.

On the nasi lemak ladies.

I have nothing against people trying their luck and putting their neck out there. To try hard and make a living.

I'm just saying, work smart better than work hard.

You want to sell nasi lemak? Well ask yourself?

1) How good is your nasi lemak? How is your sambal? is it the best within a 10km radius?

2) What is your price? RM5 for one bungkus? or RM1 or RM3? Is it of good value? RM5 come with chicken?

3) What is your costing, you got big pot anot? or you still using small pot?

4) How many people selling nasi lemak around the vicinity? If there are 3 stalls selling nasi lemak next to you, you sure you want still want to sell nasi lemak, or maybe you sell milo ais better?

5) If egg and rice price drop 20%, you expect to make more profit. But if you are in the scenario where you got 4 people around you selling nasi lemak, and they drop the price from RM2 to RM1.8. You sure you want to keep at RM2?

6) What is the demand elasticity like? Does your still taste better?

I mean, booking holdings, the company that holds Booking.com, Agoda.com, priceline.com.

With great economics and moat is around 16PE.

You sure you want to pay 13 times earnings for a commodity co?

I mean at this price, using a very cursory view, it does not look too expensive, but im not sure its that great as a long term investment. I do regret not buying some at 2-ish.

Still wonder why tbh, probably because i thought it was a commodity co, and they were better ones (prices did not similarly increase though, ahah).

But as a trade, got good story, lots of eyeballs on this co, potential good quarters coming up that can support the future frying, potential extra davidtslim article, and OTB KYY frying?

Should be fine for the next 3-6 months.



=====
Stock: [TGUAN]: THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD
Nov 21, 2019 11:34 AM | Report Abuse

average PE multiple is around 12x

CIMB ascribed a PE of 13x for packaging sector

i believe 40sen earnings is achievable in 2020

estimated valuation = 12 x 0.40 = RM4.80
plus net cash 0.31sen
TP = RM5.11

Can you tell me a scenario where the boss and majority owner of the company does not sound happy and positive? All course you're going to toot your own horn.

Shahril from sapura say going to turnaround dunno how many years d. Now after huge right issue.

Current asset less than current liability again.

No idea if thong guan is good or bad business since i've never studied it in depth before.

But for the newbies here, please note davidtslim spoke very highly of MASTEEL, HENGYUAN etc at their all time high prices, before they fell more than 60-70%.

Do not read this and think you now understand the business, and you are now "investing" in the company.

If you're trading it, you know better than me how to play this.

===
Posted by Icon8888 > Nov 25, 2019 5:52 PM | Report Abuse

The boss sounds happy and positive, a big contrast to the bleak assessment of Ricky Yeo

Newman, the article was written before the price came up. He just shared it with his insiders only, which help some part in shooting the price up.

Now its the part where you catch the fish.

The question here is, do you want to ride the tiger?

The pump is the slowest.
- I don't know bout you guys, but i follow the old wives tale of pumping at the slowest speed to ensure i get as much fuel as possible.

It has the lowest number of workers.
-Only when i pump at petron, do the workers offer to wipe my windscreen, and its close to every time.

The image is old and cheap.
- This one is a matter of opinion i suppose. I think it looks very vibrant. Shell, BHP and Caltex looks very old. Petronas also to an extent.

Very low / none advertisement.
- Petrol stations don't need much ads or any tbh, its sheer existence is an ad, id rather their advertising money going towards opening more stations. But i think they do market their synthetics etc quite well, for a petrol station company at least.

I'm fairly certain the retail division did well. The question is how heavy was the stock holding loss.

Retail is about 400m gross profit, before allocating other operating cost, so it may not be 200 flat.

See lah, no idea, not enough information.

Well, if there is one thing i'm bad at, its definitely quarter predictions haha.

Would be nice to see plant utilization rate this q versus the last.

As soojinhou said,

PE 10 in malaysia is actually not that cheap, when interest rates are 3%, you are getting a premium of only 7% assuming you are perfectly right and the money is reinvested right.

I agree with most of your points.

And my comments are similar to ricky's.

Anybody who is looking for a broker, go for interactive brokers.

Why pay it out as dividend if they can reinvest it at a high rate of return? Having said that, i do acknowledge that the reinvestment of most companies is actually shit.

Having said that, petronm capex is not for fun or waste. They actually need to incur that amount to upgrade and meet compliance.