I feel really sorry for you.

I hope you can recover from it.

This will come across as very arrogant from me, but please consider buying and reading these books before you enter the market again in the future.

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/investment-books-to-read-and-why-you-should-read-more/

Alternatively, please consider buying the Chinese Stock Indexes and the Hong Kong ones. Certain reits in Sg is also not a bad idea.

Good luck and hang in there.

Apparently. Mr Ooi is joining.

I am really looking forward to this round.

With respect to KC, at RM6-8. I considered Perstima and MAGNI to be very overvalued. I don't see how it makes sense from an investing perspective. Just my opinion and analysis.

Having said that, we all have our flaws, as we are all constantly learning. I too screwed up to many times in terms of my fundamental analysis.

Its not the fault of the philosophy, but those of the user.

The philosophy is simple, and immensely logical.

1) Identify the range of intrinsic values by discounting all future cash flow of the investment from now to infinity, to net present value

2) Buy when the price is selling at a large discount to that intrinsic value

3) Sell when its close to that intrinsic value.

4) Do nothing in the meantime unless the perfect pitch arrives.


The difference between this and say, TA or momentum investing. Its simple. The first principles are eternal.

For Ta and Momentum investing, you are eternally prone towards the effects of the theory of reflexivity. Where identifiable patterns constantly change due to the landscape being constantly affected by the actions of the market participants.

“There is… a limit on the likely population of value investors because value investing involves more patience and discipline than many people can muster. ”

“Markets are inefficient because of human nature – innate, deep-rooted, permanent. People don’t consciously choose to invest with emotion – they simply can’t help it. Investors cannot change their stripes and will always exhibit characteristics of greed and fear. ”

"The real secret to investing is that there is no secret to investing. Every important aspect of value investing has been made available to the public many times over, beginning in 1934 with the first edition of Security Analysis. That so many people fail to follow this timeless and almost foolproof approach enables those who adopt it to remain successful."

"The foibles of human nature that result in the mass pursuit of instant wealth and effortless gain seem certain to be with us forever. So long as people succumb to this aspect of their natures, value investing will remain, as it has been for 75 years, a sound and low-risk approach to successful long-term investing."

Human nature is eternal. Nothing hurts more than watching someone you know, and consider to be more stupid than you, make more money than you.

The goal is to be able to sit your ass down when it does not make sense, and be the person who is most clear about their circle of competence and with infinite patience.

Business sense will always be beyond that of AI. I doubt AI will be able to analyse the economics of a business with high levels of accuracy before the day i die.


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Posted by paperplane > Dec 31, 2018 02:06 AM | Report Abuse

Kc ,if method doesn't work all the time also. Look at your perstima! U said worth how much then??? Look at it now??If want 马后炮tons on u also

Ah business sense, the eternal battle.

I get what kc is going at, most research reports in malaysia on malaysian companies is utterly horrible at this aspects.

Business sense is the ability to understand the economics of the business to its core.

It is the sense that enabled WB to buy GEICO and Netjets, both of which were massively loss making at the time of purchase. With netjets making losses for more than 5 years after the purchase.

It is the sense that enabled WB to buy Coca Cola at record valuations, before it went up another 20-30 times over the next few decades.

Business sense is the ability to see the potential and the ability of the company to execute over the next decade (at minimum) with a high level of confidence, determine its intrinsic value, and then buy at a discount to that.

This one, is the absolute hardest to teach. Even for WB, So many of his companies, bought with business sense (along with some number based FA), go holland.

Dexter shoes, Diversified retailing, Blue chip stamps etc. All gone to zero

This sense, can only come with constant studying about life, psychology, philosophy, the history of mankind, economic history, biology, physics, anthropology, finance, accounting etc etc.

In short, cannot finish studying. Good luck.

I would put it this way. If you think you have business sense, you probably don't.

If you think you can succeed with business sense alone, without understanding how to read accounts and extract insight from them, you probably won't.

These look interesting.

Yeah, thats common knowledge

Cool.

I don't think of you.

Aih, that was rude, shouldn't have said that.

Thankfully, not yet new year, so technically didn't break my resolution.

Judging by how your talk. My portfolio size is probably larger than yours.

I write about companies and you can see how they turn out.

I don't write about my favorites, unless i absolutely have to, or where it will not hurt me in terms of higher purchase cost, because good ideas are rare.

This kind of thinking however, is not shared in this forum which consist mainly of pump and dump-ers.

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Apabagus I am a practical man.This choivo kid writes an article every other day.Any one seen him give a good stock call before?Hey kid,there is a saying..."you are only as good as your last call".And you did not even make a single call.Everyday blah blah blah.....fighting a war on paper....come back here in 5 yrs lah.
30/12/2018 12:30

Apabagus Many big timers have already close shop after these 3 months.But this choivo is still blahing away.Either you are super good,better than OTB or your position is so small that even klci drop to 800 you will still be ok.I believe the latter scenario.
30/12/2018 12:34

On QL, people said the same about MYEG.

So many people felt so brilliant for so long, until May this year.

You bought a 30PE stock that went up to 60PE.

Every fool has his day.

Thanks for the reminder, its important to rub our own mistakes in our noses often, to reduce them in the future.

But i don't think you have the kind of mind needed to criticize me properly. Allow me to help you.

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/much-ado-about-warrants/
https://choivocapital.com/2018/12/04/an-analysis-into-my-2018-stock-pick-results/
https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/an-analysis-into-my-2017-stock-pick-competion-results/

I go into my many mistakes here. Study them and maybe you will be able to criticize me better.

I wish you the best. The better you are at criticizing me, the lower my probability of making mistakes

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zhangliang Wah Choivo boy, out to con people again? . U chg name, used to Jon Choivo who called the lousy Prolexus, ask ppl to buy RM1.40... What happen? I think Prolexus is 50+ sens. U still holding? Talk lots of nonsense to bluff people

apa mau lagi? follow ur lame unit trust that is down 17% this year? con people to buy ur unit trust scheme like money game?
30/12/2018 10:58

zhangliang I remember Choivo con guru attack Tradeview bro call QL at RM3.5. U insult Tradeview all the time like stalker! I think u shud insult more than every time u insult Tradeview stock fly! hahahaha. I learn from Tradeview bro for 2+ yrs, I enter QL RM3.5 sold RM7 in 1 year. Pls dont be a faker ok? bad karma, later ur unit trust all lose money.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/143376.jsp
30/12/2018 11:00

To even invest with me, you need to first believe in my ability to pay back. If you don't believe this but still invest, then you must be really really brave.

In some cases, We have known each other for decades. We know where each other live haha.

For them, it's simple. Put in fd or invest with me and get guaranteed higher than fd rate, plus whatever else depending on my ability.

Its not a concern.


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Posted by tm9999 > Dec 30, 2018 09:48 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Choivo, with new petrol price mechanism starting 2019, how do u see effect to petron, hy and petdag?

Charles,

I have made it clear many times, that this is a test run. If i was running a proper fund, the size of outsiders compared to my equity in fund would be many times larger.

This fund is for me to establish a verifiable track record with third parties. Which is why guarantee portion is only 40% of my own equity. Or about 30% or less of the whole fund.

I can settle it now if need be.

They are not so much brave. But they believe in my ability to pay back their capital with interest if things don't work out. I have relatively strong earning power after all. The total fund owed to them, is about 6-7 month salary, and my monthly savings easily exceed 80%.

Also, they do understand the philosophy. Whenever someone is worried. I just provide the list of stocks held, and let them decide themselves if i'm stupid or market is just being foolish.

I have always made it clear to them, if they do not understand my philosophy or believe in my ability, feel free to sell back their units to me at the end of maturity date.

Its not confidence that drives to me open this fund. But curiosity. I have a good feeling about my ability, but i can't know until 5-10 years have passed and my track record shown.

Haha Charles,

Tks for your concern. I work full time.

My record before 2017 was pretty ok, but it was only for a year and i didnt track it.

FD just does not make sense to me tbh. Hold PetronM or hold FD. Its pretty clear to me.

If it wants to go down another 18% in 2019, so be it. I know what im buying, ill just buy more on the way down.

I told myself ill be putting my money to work for at least 5 years. If i cant get good returns in 5 years (Beat index as well as positive), I'll just throw it all into china index and forget about it.

sslee,

Respectfully, i consider INSAS to be a net asset play. Beyond one purchase of inari, their track record as an investment holding co is not fantastic.

Personally, i would not hold more than 1-2% in insas (as a part of my net asset plays), or maybe 5-10% if you must have it.

Good luck.

Protect against inflation? Stocks can do better.

Hold for 10,20,30,40,50 years? You should do that for equities as well.

Cant do it for equities? Well, that person deserve the lower returns due to their bad discipline, and should go buy a house.



===
stockraider Very unintelligent comment on real property investment by the author loh...!!

Property is one of the very best investment vehicle for ordinary folks it can protect against inflation, it is a force savings and most important it is a wealth creation assets for the long run loh...!!

Generally People should think of at least getting his 1st property, then only think of equity investment loh...!!

In property people is willing to hold 10, 20, 30, 50 years disciplinary whereas in share some people hold 1 yr also cannot tahan loh...!
Why like that leh ?? Bcos sharemarket create bad influence due to its activities mah....!!
29/12/2018 12:54

Haha. This is a cute write up.

Happy new year to you too Mr Lee.

Haha my portfolio not so big until can swing one year salary.

But definitely, i think one of the reason i study so much on investing, is because i very lazy when it comes to doing low value add work, like presentation and reports, which is most of the corporate life tbh.

I was very ambitious last time, now, not so much. Because i know investing will get me where i need to be.

No mood for office politics also. Let they all go fight, i just focus on saving 80% of my salary and investing.

With luck, by 33 and hopefully before 35, can stop working for money anymore. Just sit home all day read annual reports and books.

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Posted by probability > Dec 28, 2018 07:12 PM | Report Abuse

yesterday i realized something....while at office....observed all my colleagues who seems to be very professional and extremely hardworking...

just for a small monthly income...

i feel i can never work like them till retiring....

the daily/weekly fluctuation on my stock investment value ...is almost the same as the whole savings we make in a year...

look at the amount of time and effort people place to earn? they spend their whole life learning new things everyday...send hundreds of mail...presentation and reports..drive to work..send kids to school etc..

...................

we investors are completely different than these people...

i think most of us have some kind of inherent defects these people dont have (some kind of laziness or gambling attitude)...this defects are the one that pushes us to make money from the market...

its like a blessing in disguise..

perhaps this answers why we have so many abnormal people in i3...

I am tempted. But its not fantastic unfortunately. But still....

Raider,

I doubt your 10 year record is better than 3iii.

I think if we were to start a 5 year stock pick competition. 3iii would win or be close.

I renting outside. You might mean, "When you don't own property".

How am i suppose to trust you analysis on DKSH, when you dont run a FMCG business.

How am i suppose to trust your ability to pick good durian when you don't own durian farm.

Need me say more ah.

We are given the ability to observe for a reason.

Honestly, i dont consider you as one of the foolish ones in I3, but your logic and thinking sometimes really nothing to say.

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Posted by Flintstones > Dec 27, 2018 06:33 PM | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo, how are we going to trust your analysis when you are still staying under your parents roof

Yeah, makes sense to me. Only thing im not in johor, and stocks so cheap ahahah.

I have very few heroes.

But when the comparison is you. Well, even OTB little finger is a hero.


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Posted by qqq3 > Dec 27, 2018 12:56 PM | Report Abuse

choivo...why? doing the dirty work for your hero?

His 5% more than your 200%.

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Posted by qqq3 > Dec 27, 2018 12:52 PM | Report Abuse

calvin the 5% invested in shares guy.....u in wrong forum, disturbing only.

If you buy with a less than 5 year view for this one, you're likely to be disappointed.

Also this is a small position co. Maybe 1-3%.

Hmm that is true.

Thanks.

Im really lazy to argue with all these old, egoistic, and retired individuals with nothing to do.

Know ownself wrong d, but cannot lose face. Die die must win.

I hope you're not as foolish and egoistic in your investments, as you are when you speak.

He has always been capable of that.

The principles are still the same.

you just never really understood the philosophy that's all.

Despite my soft heart, i'm not so free as to save you and your money. If you want me to try, moving forward, ill charge you 50 sen for every word of advice. Cheap liao.

At the end of the day, wealth is organic. For the most part you are worth what you deserve. A fool and his wealth is soon parted.

You are old. Mostly intelligent. But incredibly foolish in some respects. You may have even run a business before.

To be worth RM5m- RM10m at this age is not bad d. Even if you are foolish, and lose half. You will still be worth RM2.5m-RM5m.

No time study google or apple? I really nothing to say. You must not have a computer, do you write your replies on paper and mail it to your daughter asking her to reply for you?

And to have a daughter studying in stanford the birthplace in silicon valley Aih... Good luck lah!

Anyway, you lived a good enough life, can send children study overseas. All the milestone hit d.

As long as don't margin, can live the rest of your days comfortably.

Feel free to buy as the chia's are selling (even they know its expensive). As long as dont buy on margin can d.

This is one of the more foolish things ive ever heard in my life.

The money made by US companies is more valuable than RM is it?

If a malaysian company list in US instead of Malaysia. The RM they make, the serial number of the notes can go buy toto is it?

please.


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Posted by hollandking > Dec 26, 2018 10:34 AM | Report Abuse

but is dif market. Don't used US standard to judege malaysia standard. They varied greatly

I agree with many of the points raised, but i hold somewhat different perspectives in certain respects.

Calvin is quite accurate here.

I am very very tempted. But i dont think they are as good as equities. And i am no longer in johor and thus unable to care for my investment if i bought one.

Calvin, open a buy johor property fund!

Yeah, i hold some. Free money.

QL at 50PE is better than Apple at 12PE.

Clearly.

If minus off service cost etc. Really is make nothing.


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calvintaneng Permas ville condo currently advertised in Property guru for rent as low as rm1000 to rm1200 now
25/12/2018 20:25

Hmm, it looks pretty decent. I just have better things that's all.

But funnily, my "better" things, tend to rise a lot faster than my "pretty decent" picks. Hahahahaha.

I am a little tempted.

Its a better idea at 0.8 than at 2.4

The question now is how is VS versus other opportunities out there? How well do you know the company and the economics of the business. and size appropriately

Look at SKP, uchitec etc for similar co's.

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Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > Dec 25, 2018 11:16 PM | Report Abuse

Ah Jon Sifu, VS Industry at current share price can ah? haha.

buy more loh. But i wont buy it beyond 3% tbh. Its pretty decent. not super fantastic.

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Posted by apolloang > Dec 25, 2018 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

I already warned about this company.....if low oil price prolong,hibiscus potential to go down to 50-60cts

Hmm but 2% is about 20 companies in bursa. I think that figure isabout right. Those cheap enough to buy is probably half that at least.

I dont know where this thinking comes from.

Extremely good companies are extremely rare. Regardless of which market.

Now you may think, i can find so many in the US market.

Well, US have 25,000 listed companies. We have 950.

Of course you can find a few more. But % wise its the same.


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Posted by Flintstones > Dec 25, 2018 08:43 AM | Report Abuse

Many i3 readers missed the big picture. All experienced investors already knew - Malaysian stock market is not a place to build and preserve wealth. The stock market is a good place to build up short term cash. The real wealth builder in our country is still real estate. The rule of thumb is always set apart a portion of your stock market winnings to real assets. In the long term, I would say only 2% listed companies would stay at the top of their business throughout its life cycle. We dont know when Nestle or Public Bank would implode. Nobody could swear that they wouldnt blow up like Genting, Gamuda or Myeg. Go out and buy some properties with little leverage. With time, most would do better than staying in the stock market.

That land only got like 50 years or less to go.

I dont think can fetch 150m like you think.

Its not that expensive, and has good visibility for FF if they come back. That's about it,


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Posted by Outliar > Dec 24, 2018 05:10 PM | Report Abuse

Am I missing something here?

I'm personally really curious for updown pick.

Definitely joining. With this kind of price, 2019 have a higher probability of being a good year.

Yeap.

The amount of fools here, well, its not that much of a value add activity to talk to them. but it sure is fun to buy make money off them!

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Ricky Yeo Sure not a problem. I don't want to discuss finance theory, I am just pointing out if logic is wrong, how does one make money based on false logic?
24/12/2018 13:04

VT also very foolish businessman in my opinion.

Every single one of his decisions is bad. If not for him getting the toto license and being close friends with Tun M.

He long ago go holland d.

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Posted by striker888 > Dec 20, 2018 09:47 AM | Report Abuse

VT claims 711 Malaysia is worth USD1 billion, so I claim FM is worth at least USD 2 billions, hahaha. Buy buy buy if QL dips below RM6

10154899906070843,

Haha you're a cute one.

You clearly know nothing about me. Im fairly certain KYY would not classify me as his follower.

Lehman brothers, if you bought once bankruptcy is announced, you would have made a lot of money. Publicly one guy in singapore did that.

Talk about an absolute shit business, at a honestly quite fantastic price of close to zero.

My margin loans, for it to even call me once, the market need to drop from 1600 to 400. And i've recently paid off 50% of what i used in cash. Now i'm only leveraged 15%. Good luck margin calling me. Not impossible, but i can handle it anytime.

And i would be so happy the day i get margin called. Imagine rcecap at 0.4. Wah piang!

My RCECAP is still up 3.5% this year off my average cost (Net of div) of RM1.39. Not sure what you mean.

Yes, i would have doubled my money if i bought ql. But i would have made speculative money in a stupid way. Opening me up to losing money in a stupid way.

I hope you don't do so. Old d, very hard to save yourself if you screw up financially now.

How about this. You take up 200% margin to sailang into QL now. We see 5 years from now, what your returns like.

"Let's see which stock performs better in 5 years, the superb business with pe50?, Or the bad business with pe5."

Well unker, Why not incredible business at 30 PE (google), or 17 PE (Facebook, apple), 15 PE (TSMC), 20 PE (NVIDIA), 10 PE (BAYER Chemicals). 8PE (ALLIANZ ZURICH).

I think my heart soft d. Trying to save fools and even make some many by showing other options.

Good luck, no time to layan overly egoistic individuals.

Once you sign/pay up for the right issue. Then yeah.


===
Outliar How does it work? Do you get them automatically?
08/12/2018 10:12

I have no idea why people like DKSH so much. At this price, it looks ok, but not so fantastic.

But RM4 ah? This company better than APPLE is it.