Jho Low and Najib

QQQ3 and KYY.

For a person whose only profit from the market, comes from front running KYY with maximum margin in JAKS and Sendai.

You sure talk alot.

Cost to KYY for listening to QQQ3, at least RM70mil if include sendai.

Well the boss of IOI knows his oil palms in and out, what fertilizer is best, how best to grow and maintain, the maintainence schedule and the most efficient mix.

At the end of the day, if you think like an owner, you need to know the details.

The Agm is the only time a shareholder get to meet the ceo and board face to face and get their questions heard.

I don't see what is the problem here.

Unless of course one is an IB, with zero curiosity towards the business, but masturbates thinking about their wonderful 5 year projection that will be shown to be absolutely pointless when compared to the actual results.


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Posted by John_Lee > Dec 4, 2018 01:12 AM | Report Abuse

Sslee,

There is nothing wrong in asking questions. But one has to understand what is relevant and acceptable questioning taking into the context of the event/environment. Simply, different lines of questions for different time and place. The questions you listed for the Hengyuan AGM were not suitable for an AGM. They were more like questions a manager will ask his support personnel during department meetings.

You have to understand that posing such petty questions to Board of Directors during AGM is not only annoying, it may even be seen as disrespectful towards the BoD and also towards the event. Also, do know that it was within the rights of the BoD not to have answered you and they have been graceful to have provided you a written reply later.

Another point that I wish to highlight is that the powers of shareholders are much limited by the Companies Act 2016. Many seem to miss this point. It is hence crucial that you also seek to know the integrity and capabilities of the BoD of the company you invest in.

I met him. His name is cheoky.

There are 10 million john lee's. Put down your full name, along with linkedin and hp number lah?

Really is head grow in backside one.

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Posted by John_Lee > Dec 4, 2018 01:15 AM | Report Abuse

Cheoky,

I strongly suggest that you be man enough to write using your real name and not hide anonymously when you call other forumers derogatory terms.

in the intelligent invester, ben graham used to have a chapter on shareholder activism.

But he removed out the chapter because he just didnt see how investors will ever be motivated to see their holdings as actual stakes in the company, and take on the required responsibility.

When just selling the shares, or not buying is so easy.

I like how when someone finally treats their shares as actual stakes in the company, and act like minority owner.

People here start to deride them.

Do you know how rare it is? Do you know how much misbehaviour by management we will reduce, if everyone was like SSLEE?

Having said that, on a personal level, one can argue if that was a good use of time.

Well, we are all going to die anyway. If this gives sslee a certain additional purpose in life, and he finds meaning it. All the more power for him.

Uncle, i suggest you contact kcchongnz, ask him teach you how to do value investing properly.

You are still very rich, you don't need to be rich again.

Kc will ensure you will stay rich till the end of your days.

Hibiscus, lionind, hengyuan.

Depends on the underlying funamentals gua.

If jaks powerplant is profitable (or very profitable), can go back.

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Posted by apolloang > Dec 3, 2018 08:51 PM | Report Abuse

dump or not,whenever u see a stock down so much can ever recover back? the most is technical rebound.all dumped stocks never recover,example presbhd,sapnrg,armada,myeg,dsonic and many more

Potential Ghost.

Unlike you, i did not lose money in jaks until cry father and mother.

In fact, i might be buying some soon at such potentially wonderful discount!

He stated "desperate for financial help"

That does not sound like sell for money to subscribe warrant. Maybe im wrong.


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Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 3, 2018 06:17 PM | Report Abuse

uncle koon sold 20 million shares to subscribe for warrants lah. You think really margin call ? stupid....

So cheap, kritik backside meh.

Wait lah rm10, then only worth to kritik. So mahal then.

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Posted by dragonslayer > Dec 3, 2018 06:17 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyo..why no one say limit down again kah...mana itu semua penkritik...lol...wakakaka...kikiki

Ahh, feel bad for uncle koon tbh.

Brother,

Do you even see the accusations you levied against me in your very first message to me? As well as every subsequent one?

My gosh, it really is true. people are most blind to their own flaws.

Haha, dont get your panties in a bunch. Now you just look bad to be honest.

And i look even worse for intereacting with you, to deign your insults with a reply.

Its really true. Never argue with a fool. They'll pull you down to their level and beat you with experience!

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Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 06:06 PM | Report Abuse

Insult, insult, insult. Call names. That your nature.

Again clear signs of insecurity and lack of self confidence.

When the person disagreeing is you, i'm naturally more confident of my conclusions.

If it was say kc, or ricky, or 3iii. I will need to think much deeper about the tradeoffs and my perspective.

Look, if you're going to crticize, be specific and elucidate.

Do you mean i leave a way out, or i have considered most factors well?

Look, its very easy to prove me wrong. Like my recent rcecap piece.

Just show me its overvalued, or my thinking on the economics is completely wrong.

Show me if they are hiding impairments elsewhere, cash is not real, valuations actually very high. Etc etc.

Thats it.

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Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:49 PM | Report Abuse

There we go again. You so sure of yourself obviously you will never see anything wrong with your own thoughts lah.

Comprehension fail again.

Student mistakes an "example", for an "accusation".

May be due to deep held insecurity.

Alright this is low, its like insulting children. It only brings me down.

Ciao!
====

Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:37 PM | Report Abuse

As usual, call names again. Show your low level of intelligence, Jon.

When people like you say something like that.

Im not sure to be comforted to worried. On one hand, the crowd is defintiely stupid, having gone through the statistics at a friends brokerage firm.

On the other hand, i'm constantly worried, because there is no way im right all the time. But for some reason, its almost never the people i meet in real life who show me that, but those i can only meet in books.

Oh well, good luck to us both i guess. Dont be another statistic in my friend brokerage.

You know the ones who win big ones, margin and sailaing, lose even more. Then diam d, no trade for a few months while pay back debt.

Before after sometime, start back again same pattern.

I noticed you said this is a new account after awhile. Good luck!


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Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:31 PM | Report Abuse

Everyone also say this Jon live in different world. But then to Jon, he is the only one correct. Everyone else living in wrong world, everyone brain is short curcuit, no one else read as much as him, only Jon is correct.

Its called an educated guess.

It uses the same thought process that one needs to go through life, value shares, intereact with people.

You either lack it, or you're purposely ignoring it.

Im not sure which is worse.


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Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:27 PM | Report Abuse

You are his stomach worm? How you know?

Your brain really got big problem. People's wealth you know?

"Right now after that burn, he should still have about RM100m, but barely."

Can see your thinking. You know how much Uncle Koon got? You sure dont know what! But also you can write like his bank statement is in front of you.

Alright. If you say so, it must be the case.

I've reread what i've written a few times, and it still made sense to me. I have no idea how its a completely different world.

But, that must really be the case. I'm planning to read market wizards just so if i can see it better.

Probably going to get a headache, but for the reference experience, no choice.

===

Posted by probability > Dec 3, 2018 05:19 PM | Report Abuse

Ok Jon, looking at your feedback below...i can say you have a very different world which you are living as someone just said.

I must be living in my own world (unreal) as perceived by you.

Very difficult to bridge this two world...

At least i managed to get a glimpse of your world (dont wish to be there frankly)..

may be we can discuss again when either of our world comes a little closer in the future..

bye for now

You must have failed your reading comprehension.

"i3value is a retard."

That statement is useless mah. must support with reasoning and example mah.

unless for you, you only need that to make your conclusions lah.

In that case youre an analyst's dream. Just say "buy", you rush to sailang!

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Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:23 PM | Report Abuse

You write so long for what? Go straight to the point. Only people with no confidence but still want to show smart keep repeat and repeat. And then write long long throw in technical terms and want other believe to see you as smart. You think still in university need to score point for essay?

And you got your facts wrong. He is not a billionaire, but a millionaire.

Right now after that burn, he should still have about RM100m, but barely. I doubt he has Rm200m.


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Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:11 PM | Report Abuse

Think properly lah Jon. Uncle Koon is billionaire. He lost this money heart a bit pain only. Wont affect his wealth much. At his level of wealth, he only not happy losing and ego kena knock.

You totally dont understand other people's thinking. Only your way to think is correct, right?

I3value.

Yeah, i'm always wondering if im wrong.

And i always write long long so that people can see my thought process and hopefully poke holes in them and show me to be a fool.

Its better to find out you are one, than to actually be one and not know.

I dont write to share knowledge with, though if one found it helpful, i am pleased.

I write to crystlize my thoughts, to organize my thinking better. Writing is like thinking, but on steroid.

As for an audience. I'm fine with a few, with one or with zero.

Its a metaphor. Some events that happen are one off and have little bearing on the company's or the person's life in general.

first time 100 mark for maths. Well thats good, but that does not mean he will be nobel prize winner. The probability just went up by 0.5% or something.

You son took his first hit of heroin. Well. This one is likely to have a huge effect. His intrinsic value just went down at least 30%, even if he seems fine for the next 3 months.

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Just because your son fail one exam, does that mean he go from genius to retard? No mah.

(P) : how did you manage to link a son performance with a business performance...they are equally erratic?





They are. Probablity is low. 1% of bursa companies is about 9.

There are probably around 10 or less who have consistently maintained high ROE and ROIC for the last 20 years, coupled with increasing earnings. We use this as proxy to "record earnings for life".

as a whole, corporate earnings growth cannot exceed gdp growth for any significant amount of time, without having very very inequal outcomes. Like what happened in the US from 1970-now.

===
That is clearly not the case for pretty much 99% of the companies in bursa.

(P) : really? there are no companies that continue growing their earnings after such events?






Markets are dynamic, crack spread do not stay fat all the time. Comodity prices do not stay high all the time. Even when its really hard to get like cobalt and lithium

If its expensive, people will find alternatives.

If crack fat, people delay maintainence, increaseing supply, lowering spread.

If crack thin, people do maintainence now, decreasing supply, fattening spread.

The only questions is, how good is you plant to begin with. I wrote this so many bloody times, and i can't rmbr how many times, i, ricky and 3iii got called pondan.

Same thing with steel etc etc.

====
(P): How did you conclude that the record earnings was going to be one time event and will not be the norm going forward at the time of the results?

what is the underlying mechanism that it wont be so....

and why did the market assume so and gave a price of RM 19?





So how do we counter this? When intrinsic value can shift so much or so little, whether up or down?

Improve thinking process.

Margin of safety, and being conservative loh. Ben Graham 101.

Might be even better if you can add an equity column.

Thanks. this was useful. I never found the time or will to extract them all.

Dear Probability,

I must say, you have a way of getting me to reply to you haha.

Yes, the macro can change very quickly.

An intrinsic value consist of many factors. The management, the economic moat of the business, its pricing power etc etc

One of them being the cost of goods, as well as the price they can get for the goods they sell, which naturally fluctuate. Espeacially for commodity companies.

But as stated above, the intrinsic value is more than just the change in value in the price of certain goods, that resulted in a temporary increase or decrease in economics.

For example, HY is going to have a record breaking quarter. Does that mean it changes the intrinsic value by a larger amount? No. Unless that record breaking quarter is very resilient and going to persist to eternity.

That is clearly not the case for pretty much 99% of the companies in bursa.

Just because your son fail one exam, does that mean he go from genius to retard? No mah.

At best these temporary fluctuations, account for less than a 10% change all the future cash flows of the business discounted to present value. Or the real economics of the business.

Likewise, they are some events, that at first glance appear to have no effect on earnings. But represent a complete shift in the fundamentals, and can kill a company in 2 years or less. Look at star.

But these quarter predictors, act as if that is the case. Come on, how does it make sense to pay RM1.6 at all for masteel, Rm3.4 for Annjoo or RM20 for HY?

Now, HY was probably very very undervalued at RM2. But at RM7-10. It was probably above fair value d.

now, one can argue, some of these quarter predictors, probably didnt know better.

Well, their stupidity (malicious or innocent) resulted in some very bad outcomes for many people.

I guess its more of hate the sin, love the sinner.

In that respect, im definitely deficient.

Yeap. They are some additional risk i did not disclose, as i was too lazy to write. But its not a fantastic company. Merely good. But at this price. Well.

Wahseh, your reading comprehension really nothing to say.

I have nothing against people who trade, i do so a little myself.

Yes, if an investor sees a wonderful company, but spread rumours that its going bankrupt etc to buy cheaper.

That is despicable as well.

People who try and provide just knowledge, well they are of course to be welcomed.

But if someone writes an article espousing the wonder of a certain company. They are to be viewed with scepticism. Track the incentives!

Yes, i called out, yours and stockraider foolishness. Davidtslims, and that fella who went around predicting lionind earnings.

However, that is apprently not acceptable, by the fellow interested parties. You forget how you and raider sabo 3iii everyday ah?

You forget how SJH thought i was being very unfair to the guy who wrote the lionind article.

I quote

“The whole article consists of extensive network of data points taken from numerous sources, it took the author tremendous effort to piece together the whole picture. For that, his effort should be commended, not belittled.”

Waseh, challenge his arguements equal belittled.

For writing an article for which he will benefit very well financially from the goreng, even if it was completely wrong.

I should commend him.

Look if it was his own private research, then yes. I'll commend him and be in awe of the work done. He did it for his own curiosity, and he held it close to his chest, because he is so certain its a fantastic bit of research. So good, he don't want people to buy.

You think i give the rcecap research because my heart gold meh? No choice mah! And not going to be bad for me mah!

In any event, i'm done with this topic. Its of zero value to me, to continously piss off people here. And is probably a net negative.

An investor just wrote me saying that he was scared of asking me a question on some of the larger picks, because he didnt want to get sabo. As if i have some agenda on not wanting the any errorsor misjudgements to surface, allowing me to sell and save everyones money.

That is definitely not the result im looking for.

You remind of people who go around studying and argueing about the exact day seneca was born, instead of just obtaining the maximum value by reading his philosophy.

The difference is this.

The figures given by these quarter predictor analyst in malaysia, are often unusually optimistic and far above the actual economic power of the company. And to often to do so with precision which end up to completely wrong.

And these quarter predictors, usually have their own motives hidden. Or at least not obvious.

I have no problem if someone bets their own money on the pop etc.

But i find it despicable when people try to manipulate the crowd to be stupider than it already is. One can argue, what's the use of fools except to be taken advantage off?

Well, nothing wrong with that. But i reserve the right to find you disgusting, and state so.

Now do note, i am not saying that is david etc.

But he sure comes close, knowingly or unknowingly.

I don't get why you or sjh, seems to think i have to consider people like david etc etc as angels of the market or somthing.

I find them a bit more ethical that people like "Spartan" or whatever name they appear by.

In any event. I'm done. There are few things less productive than arguing or dicussing things with someone online, that result in zero new insight formyself.

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Posted by probability > Dec 3, 2018 03:24 PM | Report Abuse

Jon, after my message above, and if you still could not grasp , i would need to conclude you are hopeless liao...having serious mental issues as said by others.

Pointless to have any interaction further.

Yeap having read your other comments.

Definitely an IYI. Lots of intelligence. Low common sense.

At the rate you're going on, i would strongly suggest you take you money out and buy fd along with the chinese index.

This is not business, this is investment. Unless you run a hedge fund that is doomed to underperform the index, you don't need that many staff. If you're good, 4 people can probably handle about USD200billion,

There is two things you need to note. Acccounting and Investing have very different requirements.

What is true and fair in terms of accounting, is often inaccurate in describing the economics in the business. Its trade offs, that have no easy solutions.

I dont remember writing much about accounting standards beyond MFRS9 for financial institutions. Whose audits i have zero experience with.

My previous audit firm (i resigned 3 months ago) has a bigger audit department than Deloitte. And i was scored pretty damn good in performance reviews before leaving. I also got an offer from PWC for AM last week (which i turned down). Audit firms dont pay much. ;)

Thank god i wasnt trained at an IB. I would be an utter IYI, intellectual yet idiot then. Working under fucked up incentives that are net negatives to society.

Lets have some fun, show me a five year projection that you made, and compare it to the actual. Lets see how much of your time and brainpower did you waste.

Or how these fools do valaution using industry average. Really? IHH is 50PE, when it can barely make 4% ROE much less ROA using peak results.

Or how past price trends and volatility mean anything in terms of risk.

Thank god for IB's and their training of their analyst in financial models. Along with economic departments in universities. They contribute to the inaccuracies in the market that allow people like me to profit off.

On the ego and arrogance. I concede i am definitely a little of both.

But do note confuse my contempt for hypocritcal, sewerage rats as ego/arrogance. I am both capable as judging someone as both brilliant and disgusting.

I dont know you well enough, but you seem to be an one of the latter.

Now, if you have crticism on my thought process and analysis. Be specific and elucidate.

====

And I can tell that you are not trained at an investment bank. Again, I stand to be corrected but I am pretty confident.

What you write in i3 (with quotes and names throwing of so and so here and there) may impress the average layman. Some of us here who live in the financial industry however will not buy into your boasting and 'lagak pandai'.

There is nothing wrong with you writing your opinion in 13. It is after all a public site. But you should learn to handle your ego and arrogance. It is quite a pain to read your downright rude postings.
03/12/2018 12:59

Ricky Yeo,

Man you really am an analysis and writing god.

Thanks Sslee.

technical rebound, whatever that is, appears to be occuring around now. Im not buying.Just curious to see if my punt (in my head) works.

Haha rajachulan,

Thanks for taking the time. We'll find out in time i guess,

Tell me how does 90% of analyst report being buy or hold, with less than 10% being sell, not result in them being in essence worthless? You're telling me that 90% of the companies you see being buy or hold?

If its free, you are not the customer, you are the product! But the analyst, act as if you are the customer.

All these mutual funds, hedge funds etc. They get 5% sales charge, 2% per annum and 20% of any profit.

With incentives that ensure you make money regardless if others make money, how can someone who joins the place not act in a despicable manner? And if anyone is good, they use that track record to raise stupid amounts of money, that will inevitably underperform due to physics basically.

And mutuial fund companies, only keep the funds with a good track record, but those with bad ones, just disappear into the backgroud. Basically misleading people in regards to their real ability.

Don't even let me get started on investment banks.

I don't think you actually understand the industry, or have seen enough of it.

No offence, this is one of the reasons why i dont keep track of steel prices etc. If you spend time doing that, where are you going to find the time to study things like this on top of work?

Even with very spirited reading, i'm still way behind.


======
soojinhou Great to know that your contempt for everyone else other than yourself extends to professional analysts too. Let me remind you again that there are multitude of products like mutual funds, unit trusts, low cost etfs and fixed deposits for the uninitiated, uninterested and the risk-averse. We are not babysitters and no one guarantees a positive outcome from forecasts. In fact, analyst reports, either from i3 amateurs or investment bank professionals are pretty transparent in their thesis and valuation. While I have my reservations for professional analysts and fund managers, I'm not about to call them sewerage. You have some serious mental issues boy, and your language reflects your immaturity.

Alright. Thanks for taking the time. For a moment, let us try to not see who is right or wrong. There is no value in that. Let’s try and see if we can understand ourselves better through the others critique. I know I’m definitely too arrogant.
The third method you speak off. Is essentially trading/speculation.

Now just for my definition, you may think differently.

Investment: The purchase of a security at a price at a significant discount to the value of all its future cash flows discounted to present value.

Speculation/Trading: The purchase of a financial instrument, with the expectation that the price will go to a certain place.

Now i have my own perspective on trading on macro pictures. Can it make money? Of course. Can people become extremely rich through that with alpha instead of luck.
Definitely, Ray Dalio, and Soros did it.

But i don't think my perspective on trading is where our bones lie. I think our points of contention have largely been my accusations of you, icon or david being malicious. I have no problems when people want to make money in the market via trading or investing. But i do find it either slightly distasteful, unethical, or downright despicable when one tries to do so by manipulating the crowd.

The first question i'll ask is this. Why does david write? No doubt, it probably started as just sharing, coupled with the hope of pushing the price up a little. And then, he feels of the rush of being right, and the praise he gets. He betters his writing.

The next time he writes, people follow him in and bid up the equity prices. 5 hours of work, and he can potentially make 5% easily. Now, depending on his ethics, one here may turn into bonescythe or icon(or the current david).

He stays mostly correct. And walks his current path. Where he will look for macro changes that may result in strong and unexpected changes in quarter results.
And then he writes his article, that pops up the stock prices 5-10%. Or even 20% over 2-3 weeks. Now, given the few times he may have gotten burnt on selling after when profit is not as much as he would like. He sells some, basically the start of somewhat (but not downright) unethical front running.

He also starts writing like this, "Forward 3-month PE of Hengyuan could be very attractive (below PEX3.5) even based on current price of RM11.00."

As if it’s an investment, and not a trade. Now to be very fair, you may say that many reports write the same way. Some in an even more stupid manner such as, "MYEG should be valued at 40 P/E, which is cheap as its below historical P/E of 50." by the trading houses.

But i consider the majority finance industry to be a sewerage. Partly from the individuals. Mostly from the fucked up incentives that make people do horrible things. The iron rule of nature is: you get what you reward for. And the incentives in the finance industry awards despicable behavior. If you use their morals as a relative comparison, well, i'm not going to say much more.

Now back to david.

This difference in understanding between the veteran and the newbie, is how one makes money in a zero sum game. When market is good, its fine, stupidity can be covered up by buoyant prices. But when the bear market comes, and prices go down, being a trader, he would have cut loss quick. But the naive, thinks its an investment and starts averaging down.

And then we have the results of today. He is still a good person. But his actions resulted in a horrible outcome.

The road to hell is paved by good intentions.

I am not saying he is a horrible person. I am saying his actions, along with whoever else's, have horrible outcomes. I am very certain, on a net basis, if one were to remove our the natural effect from rising earnings over time from market prices, more money would have be lost than gained.

Some to brokers. Most to the shrewd. And definitely, some to david.

I have a feeling, that the net effect to retail participants from the articles of people such as icon, david etc, is probably as a whole, a negative financially (it’s just mathematics). Only kcchongnz, ricky's and 3iii's had a positive effect.
In terms of intellectual thinking, it’s probably a positive. Some driven by money, try to understand the world better economically and financially. Some get burnt properly, and decided they needed to know how to think.

But it is the last fools who buy just before the bear from david's articles, and this group also statistically is the largest amount in term of individuals and money.

If he or anyone here believes in their ability so much. Keep your fantastic ideas to yourself and start a fund. Try to at least be ethical by putting the bulk of your own money in the fund. If you are truly ethical, guarantee the principle and the profit rate as if it’s a loan.

Or, have bleeding honesty in your writing. Like the goreng goreng articles. No one is getting confused reading that.

Just from the first point.

If he is the kind to not read his own financial statements. There is very little probability of him actually being a good investor.

Uh no. If i wanted a "big break" with kyy, i would have perfected my ass kissing skill a little more, and wrote about Jaks. God knows i can bullshit and write well.

Third point, yes. If he meets my criteria's. Otherwise, he can take that money and go build 3 more dormitories, or lose about RM70m 2 or 3 more times.

Fourth, this is where we differ. The principles to living a good life is universal. They way one applies it differs individual to individual.

This is why even StoneCo, a Brazilian payment services company that just listed, at a valuation of 20 times revenue (just turned over a profit this quarter). Can count berkshire hathaway and 3g capital their cornerstone investors at their IPO. And having studied the company, i can roughly see why it would make sense.

The problem here is you don't understand the concepts deeply to begin with.

From what i read, you only understand the surface level.

Having said that, thanks for the critique. I appreciate it.

====
Posted by John_Lee > Dec 2, 2018 11:03 PM | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo, some pointers for you.

1. KYY may not be a master at reading financial statements but I am certain that he has a team of capable people doing that for him. You must be a little naive to think that he is a one man show. Dabbling in KLSE in not mere investing for KYY, it is a business.

2. You are looking for a big break from KYY. I think you are doing yourself a disservice by writing this letter as you have discredited yourself in public.

3. You are trying to do business with KYY however you word it; directly now or indirectly in the future. You see that he is a little beaten now with a few of his stock selections and you smell that here is an opportunity for you to sell your ware. Lets not fool any one that you are not trying to get him to allow you to manage some of his money. You surely look green when it comes to doing business. Your lack of maturity shows. The element of arrogance has likely gotten into you. Do reflect upon this.

4. You place too much emphasis on investment and financial literatures. Universally, investment and finance is the same everywhere. In practice, that is hardly the case. Also, making real money with a small portfolio vs a big portfolio is worlds apart. It is more than a simple extrapololation of numbers and strategy.

They only give to government servants if im not mistaken.

Some say certain GLC staff can get loans from co-ops as well. But i never asked.

good catch.

===

Posted by feimah > Dec 2, 2018 09:23 PM | Report Abuse

RCECAP’s business focuses on giving personal loans the B40 (Bottom 40% Earners) population and government servants.
What is the loan exposure % between B40 and govt servants?
=====

Not sure how you mean.

However, they can only deduct up to 60%.

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feimah Wow very good research.
Do you have the insight on asset ratio between deduction at source and non deduction at source?
02/12/2018 20:51

Haha nobody paid 5k. usually they invest in the fund.

or we just talk and if i think they're critique will be of value, i'll share.

====
soojinhou Thanks for sharing. But I' sure you pissed off those who paid the 5k hahaha
02/12/2018 21:06

Not a buy call, got equally good investments in the market now.

Unlikely to keep it up to be honest. Unless the new position also reach maximum size.

BNM was afraid of housing debt being too high and started 2 rulings.

1) a maximum tenure of 10 years for personal financing and 35 years for residential and non-residential properties

2) prohibition of pre-approved personal financing products. We understand that it also encouraged banks and NBFIs to comply with a debt/service ratio (DSR) cap of 60% for urban borrowers with income of MYR5k/month and sub-urban borrowers with income of MYR3k/month.


Back then some personal loan was at 25 year tenure or so, this meant all the borrowers had to call in or restructure the current loans.

Needless to say many could not pay back the new amounts, and thus, they had to impair.

at this price, this does not look like a bad idea.

Yeah, im sure davidtslim made buckets this year, despite being wrong every single time.

That's what you get by frying up the stock beforehand to lock in the profit.

Buy before self generated rumor, sell just before news.

Wrong or right, write new article. Most won't remember the last article.

I concede the point on putting down others. I have been more arrogant than i would have liked, this probably flowed unconsciously from the derision i feel for people's whose thinking are incredibly hypocritical, inconsistent and weak, but act as if they are the walking jesus.

I don't deride trading. Most of my conversation of with my 500% trading friend, consist of trying to understand how he did it down in a repeatable manner, of at least first principles.

But it seems to be not much more than the principles i've written in other articles (which is damn bloody hard as it is). The rest seem to be mostly turkey before Christmas kind of thinking (which to be fair he has very little off, and what has, he ensures they are profitable and don't hurt as much if they go wrong).

In addition, some of my investors consist of traders, who have me manage the investing portion of their capital.

You may also not have read my other pieces, but i've spoken very highly about Ray Dalio, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Ed Thorpe. All of whom are traders and have also taught me a lot.

Whether you are a trader or not does not matter. The question for me is whether your thinking is clear and consistent, whether one is intellectually honest.

By and large this does not exist in the retail traders, not surprisingly, since everyone's first action here start at trading, and few move on to or combine investing.

Ill give this you you. You're the latter.



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soojinhou And yet he criticizes those who do q to q forecasting, even though those who do q to q probably outperforms him.
02/12/2018 14:23


soojinhou Problem with Jon is he likes to put others down to lift himself up. That invites a lot of ill-will. To him, only his path is the right path. That condescending attitude is pretty disgusting and no I won't be wasting brain cells on intellectual debates with him.
02/12/2018 14:16

I dont think you're malicious, not consciously at least. We all are a little less holy than we think we are in reality.

However, consider telling your readers what kind of position you're thinking about. To prevent any miscommunication.

Assuming your readers matter to you.

Yes, however, even in markets as thinly traded as KLSE. Short of KYY and a few others. We are all small ciku's.

The fact you can sell all your JAKS shares and buy all the WR you need in one day, shows that we are not all that different.

Losing money hurts regardless of fund size. Our pain is tied to percentages. I find it painful losing say RM10k, you find it painful losing say RM100k. And Buffet finds it painful losing USD3 billion.

Now, fat elephants like buffet or kyy etc. 15% may be considered big. Because 15% takes time to build.

Buffet needs to find companies worth at least USD100 billion in size, because he can probably buy 5% without affecting prices too much. 5% is USD5 billion, which is only 4% of his cash pile of USD 110bil. Very few companies can fit this criteria.

KYY, since he is in small market, he might feel that to some extent trying to deploy say RM15-30 million in a stock. Need at least 1 month or so, and for companies with low outstanding shares like plenitude, he can forget about it, unless he willing to spend one year.

This is really the only difference in managing large amounts of money. Your investment universe becomes much smaller.

Unless one needs at least 2 weeks to clear your position without getting chopped on the price too much. One is probably not that big.



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if your portfolio is RM100K, you put 50% of your money in one stock, that is RM50k.

Is 50% big ? Yes.

But is RM50k big ? Nope. Most Malaysians can afford to lose it.

However, if your portfolio is RM100 mil (just an example, not to say that I have it), 15% of your portfolio translates into RM15 mil.

In Malaysia, RM15 mil is a lot of money. It is an amount that I will hate to lose.

So, when someone say he goes big into something by punting 15% of his portfolio, there is nothing contradictory in that statement

Is that so difficult to understand ?

Icon8888 you find this kind of concept alien because you have not really played big in the market. When you grow older and nest egg becomes bigger (in terms of actual money). Many of the things will begin to make sense.
02/12/2018 15:42

Dear Ayoyo,

I do not punt or trade short term. Not because i'm holier than thou etc.

But because our time is limited, an i think what i can gain from that is probably less efficient given my life philosophy and goals.

Others may feel differently.

When i do trade or speculate. Which is essentially predicting the price in the next 3-6 months.

Its only when there is a clear catalyst, and i'm very certain my view, which is contrary to the market is the correct one. And the market is thus severely mispriced.

I punted on the Malaysia elections, betting 3% of the fund, that PH will win with 3:1 odds. I punted on Brexit, buying put options for pounds denominated in USD. and I had friends punt on the american elections, shorting the Peso against RMB.





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Ayoyo @jonchoivo

As I said earlier, you may have some degree of competence in theoretical thinking and financial jargons but still much raw edges to polish in practical aspects

Putting a mathematical equation to computate what effectively is the tug of balance between something as complex as human emotions at play is self fulfilling, at best..

Here's a tip for you, Sharpen your edge on trading psychology and as a young trader then, I find these articles particularly helpful in my subsequent years in shaping my thinking and seeking an edge that worked for me

http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/articles.htm


After all, the markets is ultimately a battle between 3 people - me, myself and I - and not between anyone else, so make your own peace with what others do, for if a trade is not a profit, it was for well spent valuable information of how far you are to your goals and objectives
02/12/2018 15:00

Sendai i doubt it. Its not an early facebook etc. The scaling etc is too hard.

Mr Koon, if you want to find those co. I suggest you start studying microfinance companies in china, and payment providers worldwide, esp those in developing countries.

Very interesting.

Thank you.

i must concede i am too arrogant sometimes, often out of spite that wells up unconsciously. Spite towards what? I have no idea, probably perceived stupidity.

Thanks.

I did not lose 60% this year. Minimum.

He is sharper and smarter in spots. But by his own admission, he does not know how to read financial statements.

In that metric at least, i'm far ahead.

I have to concede, i come across arrogant at times, and probably am.

But investing is in essence an arrogant act; an investor who buys is effectively saying that he or she knows more than the seller and the same or more than other prospective buyers.

I can only counter this necessary arrogance with an offsetting dose of humility, by always asking if i have an apparent advantage over other market participants in any potential investment and to so thoroughly and persistently.

You also need to keep your ego in check. Your comments related to me these days tend to rely more on personal attacks, or to attempt to put down my arguments via reference to my age etc.

Be specific and elucidate.

Your personal attacks speaks volumes about your intellectual honesty. For your sake, i hope its kept to only interactions here and your comments and does not leak into your investing or speculating.

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Posted by soojinhou > Dec 2, 2018 01:17 PM | Report Abuse

Wtf am I reading? Jon want to teach unkle koon? Good lord, is this a joke? Even though I'm not fan of unkle's reckless risk taking, he's a lot sharper and smarter than you boy. You should be taking lessons from unkle, not the other way around. Talk about misplaced sense of pride haha. You need to start growing hair down there first before u ask ppl to be your follower little boy.