https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/04/05/sun-bears-trapped-and-killed-then-made-into-rendang-curry/


Icon, were you recently in indonesia ah? Haha

It needs to go to at least RM2 to be FV.

Probability.

To be more precise. In your case. The facts are real, the news/persepctive is fake.

When price go up, you weave your facts to be very positive outlook. When price go down, your facts weave into very negative outlook.

Objective based research into fundamentals is very close to absolute, regardless of price movements. Only thing that changes it, is a fundamental change.

You are talking about "Price" not fundamentals. Don't confuse yourself. In which case, yes, the higher the price, the lower the discount to intrinsic value.

But for you, you're reverse. Give you sky high price and low discount to intrinsic value. You dance and sing song with stockraider and say kyy wrong. Stong potential in MOGAS, EURO4/5, upgrade 20%, Trading division.

Give your close to bottom price and high discount to intrinsic value. You agree with KYY, HY is bad. Got cheaper stock with better outlook.

Terbalik already.

Except in your case, unlike KYY or stockraider. You are not malicious. You genuinely agree and believe what you say. Which is why stockraider and KYY chao at above 14-15.

No idea where you sell, but probably much lower than that. Not ytd though. If you really is sell ytd, nothing to say. Suggest you put money in FD then.

Probability.

Your fundamental analysis on HY change again ah?

Or you want wait for RM10 to start talking about MOGAS EURO5 and Trading?

Then when RM5, crack spread contract low earning visibility?

Remember, if you're not paying for the product. You're the product!

KYY is not your friend in the stock market. He says its a zero sum game, which means he wants your money.

Listen to Ricky Yeo. He's one of the few here who presents balanced opinions. And he thinks very deeply and comprehensively. Some of his investment don't make sense to me, but his major holdings, are very good.

Lol, cannot count like that. Very scary haha

My valuation for Petronm not that deep, just cursory look. But i know now is too cleap. But near 15 i might chao d.

Cyclical ones shoot up the fastest after a crash.

Calvin has the rest in property.

Im 93% invested lol. Im down 17% this year. Pretty ok.

Just paper gains/loss only lah. Now too low you cant sell, freeze you cant sell. Ask them pay money to freeze stock for what.

Buy stock from me lah. RM1 per share, promise to pay RM1 mil per share about 100 years after i die.

Your paper gains sure very leng one.




Posted by Alex™ > Apr 4, 2018 09:59 PM | Report Abuse

Need book flight ticket leh.... Some more airasia in freezer suspended... So lucky man... Can ask hrc boss suspend stock?

Yeah, i think i was too mean. I didnt need to do that.

Sorry probability. Good luck with future ventures.

I may disagree with calvin alot. But, Calvin is one of those i know.

30 year from now, if he still alive, will still be around investing.

Many here, 20 year from now, will be gone from market.

Calvin only 6% invested.

Improvement, last time, he only 1% invested hahahaha

He should be grateful i laugh at him when he's down. This way, he will really learn. Pay one time tuition in stock market enough d. No need pay anymore.

In market, cannot have ego. If have ego, si liao. Only focus is on the truth. Come from whoever also ok.


Posted by dragonslayer > Apr 4, 2018 09:49 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyo..wei..Jon..enuf liao lah..why still not stop..mau cari gaduh kah...wakakaka..I join you gaduh lah..want kah...wakakaka..kikiki

He still got potential to be sifu. Sailang now based on his long term research. Then 5 years from now really RM19.

20% cagr? over 5 years? Really not bad. Proper sifu then.

Now, he just looks like a child.

If he spot early and sold now. In the end make nothing.

It would be different if he called to sell even at RM14 or RM15. Esp if its on the way up, and not down. That would take balls.

Then he really is pro.


Posted by CharlesT > Apr 4, 2018 09:42 PM | Report Abuse

Having said all the above, i noted that bro probability is one of the early batch to spot heng yuan n petronm during q1 or q2 last year, much earlier than otb n kyy n many others.

He is still one of the best sifu in i3.

OTB, are you serious ah.

You don't know why the price move? Isnt it obvious ah?

Euphoria, begets Euphoria in a constant positive feedback.

As stock price go up, all the positive news is over-represented in the news, people's analysis and people's minds. Causing it to go up more and more until it stops going up.


Fear begets fear in a constant negative feedback.

As stock price go down, all the negative news and downsides is now over-represented in the news, people's analysis and people's minds. Causing it to go down more and more until it stops going down.


This was the fundamental of your subscription business no? The first few cause price go up to start the positive feedback. Others see price go up and your positive research, feel euphoric, buy more, it keeps going up and up and up. Then it stop.

The as it starts to drop, they start listening to naysayers, price drop more, they now starting to panic, the all the bad news and downside all come up. Until all they can see is downside, as price drops, more and more sells.


Your Masteel and Hengyuan picks, had clear downsides what. Hengyuan the refinery is not as efficient historically as most thinks. Operating earnings evened out over the last 10 years is only RM150m per annum. Net profit evened out over the last 10 year is worst, only RM60m.

Of course, if they really forced to sell to shell at cheap price, might be different lah.

Masteel like i said, debt is very heavy, high steel prices is only temporary.

Both companies looked cheap-ish using record all time high earnings that had alot of outstanding and non recurring factors.

When share price going up, everyone greedy, no one want to see downside mah.

When share price going down, everyone scared, no one want to see upside.

Like that loh.

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Posted by Halite > Apr 4, 2018 09:22 PM | Report Abuse

there is no reason Petronm can not be traded at more than 18 in the long run
so if you buy now, it is safe , not easy to lose if you can wait.

Ans :
I think it is important to check the projected EPS for 2018 before we can conclude the projected price at 18.00.

I believe Mr Market is always very accurate.

I wish the price of Hengyuan and Petronm can go up north together.

Cannot figure out the reason why the price keep dropping everyday until everyone is so worried to cut loss.

The main reason I believe the EPS will be bad for all refinery stocks worldwide.
The price drop is not restricted to Malaysia. It happens worldwide.

We do not know the real reason and keep hoping to look for sky high price.

Thank you.
Ooi

Brother, i read your statements for almost a year d. From HY RM 6, to HY RM6.

You really is funny lah.


Posted by probability > Apr 4, 2018 09:28 PM | Report Abuse

Jon...read my statements carefully...behaving like a child now..not sure if i should entertain further.

Probability is sincere. I dont doubt that. He really believes what he says.

But he is "intellectual yet idiot". (again sorry for being harsh)

He thinks he is investor but he is trader.

He research like investor but buy&sell like trader.

Nothing wrong with trading btw.


Posted by rchi > Apr 4, 2018 09:24 PM | Report Abuse

probability,i never doubt ur sincerety
just a piece of friendly advice....stks value are not determined by fundamentals alone

Suddenly probability now not even sure which information he using.

If his balls really kecut or his reasoning correct.

He thinks, "Am i a rational person, or just rationalizing my actions.".

Really laugh die me.



"Singapore benchmark crack spreads have posted a strong and steady uptrend over the past six months. For gasoline, the spread between second-month Singapore 92 RON gasoline and Dubai swaps averaged $12/b so far this quarter. The spread averaged $11.21/b in Q4 last year and $10.78/b in Q3, Platts data showed." This article is written on 22/3/18, 'so far this quarter' would therefore include almost the entire Q1. Perhaps, it's time to consider the possibility that futures doesn't correlate well with HY's result, and doesn't correlate well with actual crack spread.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wtis-rebound-may-aid-s-korean-oil...

Probability buys a property stock. Good bs, strong nta etc. Economy picking up.

When loan approval rate drops 10%, share price drop 20%.

Short term outlook suddenly bleak d. Sell all. Find new company with bright outlook for 1-3 month.

HAHAHAHAHAAHHAAHAHAHAHA


Posted by probability > Apr 4, 2018 09:17 PM | Report Abuse

Exactly - this is what i am saying.

How to make big money like that?

The big money is made buying in crisis mah. You wait water clear d, big money people make d. And now the shark and crocodile all come in.


Posted by myongcc5 > Apr 4, 2018 08:56 PM | Report Abuse

I m both trader n value investor but will shun during crisis n b back when the water is clear!

Thanks fr yr suggestion!

Bleak short term future.

I really nothing to say to you. Your research before this talk about MOGAS lah, 2020 lah. Upgrade lah. Trading business lah.

Now all forget d.

You can be hypocritical everywhere else. But not investing. Especially if you believe in your own hypocritical bullshit.



probability This is the reason Charles:

Now...compared to the bleak short term future of HY...there are many other stocks in BURSA with Bright but equally depressed price...

Only new information come out is crack spread.

Every day go up go down.

Unless you now have knowledge that crack spread will fundamentally contract for the next say 3-5 years. Its just noise.

When crack fat, supply fat, mai contract loh.

When crack thin, supply mai thin, cause spread to expand loh.

Natural feedback mah.

To not take into account crack fluctuations in your research is just. ROFLMAO damn funny lah. I told you all so many times summore.

Now when price drop, aiyo, all the downside suddenly magnified, upside all hilang.

Learn to balance your greed and fear. Know thyself.

Or keep money in fd.



Posted by probability > Apr 4, 2018 09:06 PM | Report Abuse

Charles...new information is flowing everyday...we continously update with the latest information.

Now...compared to the bleak short term future of HY...there are many other stocks in BURSA with Bright but equally depressed price...

so - let us be a little wiser.

Everything you say, i told you months ago. Back then you so hot on the BMW engine till want pay Ferrari price.

Now BMW engine selling for toyota price dont want d.

Damn funny lah you.



Posted by probability > Apr 4, 2018 09:02 PM | Report Abuse

my decision making has nothing to do with price movement.
its purely based on the continous crack spread drop.

last quarter had a huge help from inventory gain, i was hoping the crack spread would recover...but it never came through for March.

All your analysis on the fundamentals, in the end crack contract abit, your sphincter also contact. Haha margin of safety mana.

Your reputation really koyak a d lah.

Posted by probability > Apr 4, 2018 09:03 PM | Report Abuse

wow...who is being emotional here?

Of course, valuation maketh the investment.

There is no business so good that a high enough price will not turn it into a bad investment.

There is no business so bad that a low enough price will not turn it into a good investment.


You are the kind of guy, that will buy Google when its going up to 50P/E and sailang on the top banking on potential of the company.

Then when dropping, you heart pain, brain scared, cannot tahan, Start thinking Google not worth 20 p/e and sell.



Posted by probability > Apr 4, 2018 09:00 PM | Report Abuse

Jon...you and 3iii decide based on price movement....you see how the car moves and decide its future...

i see the condition of engine.

Probability,

All that analysis just throw rubbish like that.

I think you clearly don't have the emotional aptitude to be investing. I strongly suggest you just buy US index funds and rest put in FD.

Its not you no brain, but your common sense and emotional control rubbish.

Probability.

As Taleb would say, i apologise if this comes across as harsh, you are "The Intellectual yet idiot". Hahaha

All that buying and pushing HY when price and risk were all time high, but when price and risk getting back low again, you sell out.

Really nothing to say.

Good luck to you too.

May i suggest you consider value investing if crisis/downtrend happen.

Value investing works best when everything is dropping like flies. :)

Haha not a trader. So i can just swallow all the way down.

So what crash, just buy all the way down with cash and hold, kaotim loh.


Posted by myongcc5 > Apr 4, 2018 08:42 PM | Report Abuse

Icon, The last fought with bear in 2015 cud b very different fm current scenario!
It's better to b cautious as the melt down since beginning of tis year may turn into world financial crisis!
Unprotected capital may melt down to a point where many yrs needed to return, that is provided a strong company!
Many signs pointed to potential crash, just need a trigger!

18 or so is FV for me. Ill sell probably 20% below that.

Markets prices in the short to mid term is determined by the small, irrational and intolerant few.

Think of a building with small doors. If everyone want to go out, sure drop like crazy.

Too lazy to write more d. Everyday i write same story, everyday i get same question. Sien.

Haha yeah, damn fun observation.

Eh guys pls, this is not chinaman scammer co. The company is state owned. Should be ok.


Posted by CharlesT > Apr 4, 2018 06:22 PM | Report Abuse

If u wanna learn abt investment pscyology comes to this thread...the ultimate fear vs greed

Now its 2.46 presplit, or 2.71 if you take in the div.

Drop about 20sen more and it will be pre duke sale to EPF price. Wah, cant wait man.

Why detrimental to his interest. He control the refinery. If stock price drop refinery shut down ah.

What you mean never allow, in crisis, everyone stupid, anything can happen.

kasinathan,

How sure are you that its people not being stupid instead.

When airasia price drop, everyone think accounts got problem. When price go up, everyone think accounts made of gold.

4.2 mil can buy today entire volume.

please, only ikan bilis selling.

The short to mid term market price is determine by the small, illogical and intolerant few.


Posted by trulyinvest > Apr 4, 2018 06:06 PM | Report Abuse

Kikikiki, halite how,many bilions,u need,to fork out to suport again. Kikiki

Haha i dont time market. And my name not warren buffet.

Only got 8% cash now =(

Hopefully this drop will drop summore and last longer.

CharlesT, im thinking of going into margin if my paper loss exceed 35% and i bolui.

Max margin limit is 50%

You got more experience in market than me. Safe enough boh?

Limpeh buy more pls! :D Not this one lah.


qqq3 all the warren bufett wannabes...all the so called value investors.....
talk for years and years no end....

on the day your conviction is put to the test...all becomes traders and cut loss.......lol......
04/04/2018 17:51

Stockraider,

the ah moi got call son come back from overseas school anot? Since she got buy more near peak.

OTB, yes i noticed that. That really helps your followers to not lose too much and size their bets properly.


Ans :
Agreed.
However, I still list down the cut loss level on these stocks for others to follow.
It is done very transparently.

Thank you.
Ooi

And every event, people think wont rebound.

UnicornP Actually every event will eventually rebound.
Great depression -> Asian Financial crisis -> 911 -> 2008 subprime -> Oil crash -> Brexit -> Trump won. lol
04/04/2018 17:18

Eh pls. Paper loss is more than that! :)

Cause 17% (actually) drop you need 18.3% to gain back. Not to mention i got much more money in the market now than what i started with last year.

CharlesT So yr last year 15% return gone n becomes -1% as at now..
04/04/2018 17:01

OTB,

With respect, allow me to suggest you remove the "Never sell no matter what" rule you have for your miss universe list.

Because, you clearly have a line at which you will cut.

OTB,

Hengyuan and Masteel was very big highlight in your Ms universe stocks.

is it those 2?

Gamudawe also last year.

HAHAHAHAHAH

DISCOUNTS DISCOUNTS DISCOUNTS!

OTB,

I must stop you here.

Then what about your ms universe list? Is that one just to give lip service? I thought no matter what cannot sell?

You cannot be inconsistent in investing.




Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Apr 4, 2018 05:04 PM | Report Abuse

Why everyday also condemn me that I am very wrong ?
Follow my rule, drop below 200 days SMA cut loss.
Are you ok if you follow my strategy ?

I am not claim credit here, no one is 100% sure win in stock market.
Give me some face here.
Do not agree with my method, please do not follow.
Why attack me everyday ?

I am very ok, I had been telling all my followers to cut loss if the price is below 200 days SMA.
Protect capital first.
Sell now is considered as shorting the stock since the trend is down.
I am very fearful on this type of market, do not buy until after GE14.
Are they benefitted on this type of service ?

Do not find fault on me everyday, I have 25 years of experience in stock market as a remisier and also as an investor.
All my wealth, I made it from stock market.

Thank you.
Ooi

If there's one thing i get from this bear period.

Is that i have the emotional capacity needed for investing. Im down 16% this year. Bo feel at all. Hahaha

Outlier,

When i say price, i mean value.




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In any event, I dont entirely agree with your opinion that as prices go up the risk of permanent loss of capital goes higher, if one were to buy a penny stock for example for little money compared to someone who buys nestle, is the risk of permanent loss of capital higher for the person who buys nestle?