Well. It was cheap hahah. 1.8% of portfolio, just keep lah.

Lower rev etc, but also alot due to forex gain in prev q, turn to forex loss in current q. Not fun i suppose.

Its about 5.5% of portfolio, i guess ill just keep. Might buy a little bit if it drops too much.

In that case, banks with NIM of just 1,5% must be bad business. This kind of ROI is fantastic if its purely on borrowed money, and your cash-flow/ earnings is very resilient. haha

Problem is, equity base is high. But if you take the valuation at 2.8 bil, and put in this kind of earnings, 30 mil or so per annum after interest. Pretty bad.


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CentnSenses In Eko's case, why it is win-win for government to takeover Duke toll concessionaire?

Assume current traffic, Duke 1&2 revenue at 43m/qtr. (note: traffic keep increase as more links/exits added.)
Toll Revenue for full year 172.000 mil
Profit margin 76%
-------------------
Earnings 130.720 mil
vs Duke 1&2's pending Debt 2,001.000 mil
Earning/Debt ratio 6.53%
Debt interest charges 5.00% (annual)
=> Net Earning = 1.53% (That's very poor ROI)
20/05/2018 13:38

Hmm.

So basically you're doing the SOP calculation done by the valuers back in the iwcity merger. Which put per share value at 3.66.

Problem is, alot of companies look very valuable at SOP but not so much when looked at a earnings basis.

I think this buy out if it happens, will be a big boon for alot of highway concessionaires. Instant cash. Highways usually look good on SOP and DCF basis.

I hope its awhile before fundamental rule the day. Can keep buying then! Haha

No idea how much they will pay as we do not have the contract. But in any event, highway also not yet finish build. I dont think this one is the problem.

But generally, it is cost of capital plus interest for uncompleted highways.

But i seriously doubt they will nationalize all highways. These highway is not maintain for free one. I can see the ones being owned by khazanah and epf, lowering their toll rates etc. But really, PLUS owes 28bil in debt, principle have not even start paying. Good luck lah.

But the rest, if they want, they are going to have to buy them.

With the price below 0.8, may need to change fund raising structure. Im hoping they forget about the fund raising and just get bank loan. Kao tim.

Whole market dropping. i wouldn't read too deeply into it, sentiment is not helping either.

Read above, you assumption is likely to be grossly false.

But i wouldnt mind if people have this perception! If the whole world thinks all 17,000 is in RCECAP book, instantly drop to 0.3! I can sailang properly then!


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Lukesharewalker unless 17,000 also in the books of RCE cap, hence the panic sell again,that 17k times 15k that's 255 million...LOL
18/05/2018 20:59

Calvin, i rather buy more plenitude, ksl, or daiman. Even bjcorp.

Not that attractive as NTA play, management is rubbish summore.

Wow, that's a big drop. Need to find money buy more.

I have to say, sometimes i wonder if i'm stupid. For example, before this, i said very loudly that i think the stock will drop more as quarter comes up due to MFRS 9, which should result in some impairment.

But instead, i bought some more yesterday at RM1.35 ahahaha.

However, i do know that as human beings, we tend to remember our correct predictions better than our wrong predictions, making us too confident in our own ability.

What i know for a fact is this, its pretty close to futile to predict short term price movements, unless you have a super algo bot that is constantly refined. People get lucky over the short term, but usually not over the long term. I generally got burned too much in terms of opportunity cost or stupidity. And if one looks and spends too much time infront of a computer screen trying to predict short term movements, you can't help but start to have very short term perspective. You start seeing the trees but missing the forest.

What i know i'm reasonably good at, and can actually constantly improve on, is my ability to estimate the intrinsic value of companies. And investing is the last real liberal art. Everything you learn about life, applies to determining the value of a business. So all i need to do, is live life with eyes wide open, and be curious. Very much more fun compared to staring at a computer screen.

I wouldn't mind holding forever, but if a business becomes too expensive i will need to sell. I may keep some, if it.
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ohbeeyee @Jon Choivo you have a very unique perspective on investing.
as i understand it, you are a firm value investor that invest for at least 5 yrs horizon, prefer is forever with the stk you choose n believe it has will show its value going forward.
Based on this conviction, you will wait to top up further, a stock you foresee will drop further in the immediate horizon, rather than reduce your weightage now n minimise a temp. hit in the portfolio.
v. interesting...
18/05/2018 22:47s that fantastic of a business.

The same thing was said of bankers who fucked up the economy.

They said, one could never predict this.

OTb does encourage you to use your brain etc, but i feel that he could have done more previously in terms of disclosures, warning against investing too much in his picks etc etc

but all in all, i think hes still one of the good guys.


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Posted by tehka > May 18, 2018 05:32 PM | Report Abuse

Some things are out of control. OTB already did his best.

When i spoke to the investor relations yesterday on this matter. They indicated that contract workers consist of less than 1% of the loan book.

In addition, it should also be noted that the population of contract workers in malaysia is a lot more than 17,000. Which means, its likely to affect only a small percentage of that less than 1% of loan book.

In addition, even if you get fired,some are likely to still pay up. So there's another mitigating factor.

Why is the amount loaned to contract workers so low? My guess, lack of stability. Contract workers have contracts of usually 3 years or so, and renew at the end of contract. Ideally, you'd like to loan money to people who have permanent jobs.

And as tun m says, some will be transferred, and the low income ones will keep their jobs. In addition, it will take time. Which indicates to me, that the effect will be staggered.

However, i don't think the facts matter in the face of negative emotion or sentiment. I look forward for a chance to top up at RM1.1 or less.

Im perfectly fine if the government wants to takeover the toll. Just pay up. Id prefer if the toll is built and operated. But id take the money now too.

30 times earning and you only make 6% more of course drop lah.

30PE means the company earnings need to grow for at 30% per year for 10 years for you to it to be worth it.


Posted by Jeffrey Chang > May 18, 2018 10:36 AM | Report Abuse

Despite making good profits, the share price drops. Sigh.

"In terms of the civil servant financing market, RCE Capital — which provides financing mainly to government employees — has about 2% to 3% market share, based on its loan book value of between RM1.5 billion and RM1.6 billion. "

Using 3% we get potential 510 customers.

RM1,496,035,000 loan book, average loan size RM15,000 (kenanga report), that is 99,735 customers.

Worst case 510 (17,000*3%) customers at 15k each, RM7.5mil. Do note some will be transferred, some will not be fired, and this will be over a specific time period. And most should still pay the loan back even if they are fired or find a new job, since when if you no job no need pay loan?

In addition, im not sure if this will directly affect the cooperatives which are loaned money by rcecap.

Current impairment provision is RM65.68mil for specific, RM51.70mil for general.

Its interesting.

The thriftiness of the government, does not mean the thriftiness of the civil servants. I doubt civil servant salary will get cut.

Bro, inari bonus share.

Posted by TheContrarian > May 15, 2018 04:55 PM | Report Abuse

At of March, Inari was 2.8? Now Inari only 2.08? Down 0.72. But end of March, Insas has only 400 million Inari shares, today Insas has 600 million shares.

I will purposely put money in to buy if it drop to 50 sen.

Dear Calvin,

Thanks.

17,000 is 3.4% of civil servants if we use najib figure of 500k civil servants, or 1.1% if we use official figures of 1.5 million civil servants (include teachers etc). And this is to be done over a period of time.

RCECAP has only 1.5% market share in personal loan space.

Assuming their customer have equal representation across the entire civil service, RCE has a worst case (3.4%*1.5%) 0.051% chance and best case (1.1%*1.5%) 0.0165% chance of being affected.

That is worst case, 9 bad customer, best case, 3 bad customer.

This is of course, unless they focus on getting government staff that are politically connected. Which i dont think so.

As RCECAP cannot borrow directly to people, but instead borrow to cooperatives, KOBENA, KSB and KOWAJA. I dont see anything when i researched those cooperatives that indicate they specialize in these politically connected civil service.

In any event, the price is so cheap now, my margin of safety more than covers most bad news. This one is not that major i think.

Of course, if anyone else thinks differently, or feel i have the wrong data, let me know. My avg cost is 1.49. If i'm wrong, id rather cut loss now.

I have just put in all my spare cash into the markets now, rcecap is 22.4% of portfolio.

I am in TA, i have a 2% position. Good luck, now bursa everything also cheap.

In any event, im almost 100% invested. Only left like 3-4% cash to put. So many opportunities, not even sure where to put.

Market today, alot of one in million opportunity.

No need sailang here.

River of life sign d.

But small ciku contract, not an issue.

Duke 2a on hold probably, LLM not yet ok it.

Bought a small 1.7% position. Lets see.

Gamuda is one of the best construction outfits in the world. Not size, but skill.

They have no problems getting contracts. Whatever schmoozing they did with the previous govt, is what needs to be done anyway to at least maintain a good relationship.


KLCI King Aiyo, belum bangun lagi, masih tidur & mimpi kah? BN is gone, so do this Gamuda, do you still think this GAMUDA still can get projects like previously? Dream lah.

Please buy more if you want to die, no one will stop you.

As the duke 1,2 and 3 contracts is signed and construction undergoing, i dont see a problem.

Duke 2a is not signed, so probably may get cancelled. But no construction ongoing etc, so should be fine.

Might be a bit too hard to value now, as the construction division probably going to kena whack. But its starting to look attractive to me.

Hey, yikwei91

"The real risk to TIMECOM is that people may decide to only go with one internet connection and in this case wireless is better as it is more convenient.

The problem is that given the growth in usage of data, especially if Malaysians start streaming, wireless spectrums just can’t support that kind of usage unless 5G is used.

However, Malaysia have not even implemented 4.5G, and right now 5G is still a pipe dream even for the developed countries, where even the current standards of definitions of 5G is still under debate.

In addition, there is the technological aspect, 5G spectrums is generally very short range and requires a direct contact tower to tower with no obstructions from trees buildings etc. This would require an incredibly large amount of towers.

In addition, these towers still need to be connected to a fibre network. If 5G were to actually take off, it would require a much denser fibre optic network, and this, would be in more ways than one, very beneficial to TIME’s wholesale division."

Correct me if im wrong.

Ekovest is currently selling for RM2.0125. Pre split and special div price, (0.705/2*5)+0.25= RM2.0125. Basically, this is the price before the announcement of the sale of highway to EPF.

Its starting to look quite interesting.

No. But civil servants under Pakatan did get higher pay. The more people earn, the more they borrow.

I did, the day before elections. But not by much.

I wasnt expecting this sudden gain.

If azizah did that she is stupid. Dont screw over mahathir. You want the entire PPBm and warisan go to BN?

Haha enjoy the holiday everyone! Monday will be interesting.

I'm fine with it. Even if he just come here complain, should have some truth. If your investment is good, no need to worry.

I studied more about what he said, and i dont see a problem.

KLCI KING,

In terms of "DGAF" money, or dont give a fuck money. Its usually within a band, have too little, and you cant leave your job, have too much, and you cant leave your company etc.

As airasia is a public listed company, he should generally shut up about his political opinions. I mean the same for stanley thai.

Bought a small 1.7% position in the warrants. Lets see. May top up after elections.

Ah you see raider now, when he want to say good thing, he will start to quote buffet. When bad thing, buffet all forget d.

Fatty acid and glycerine in indonesia.

Palm oil probably. Which one? Too many to count, but if 10k usd, we are talking about IOI Conglomerate level.

But still alot of palm oil co's.

Fair point Sslee.

You questions is very very detailed. You've clearly done your work. This is clearly your field of expertise. I think your current industry and the one HY is in is probably quite transferable.

I have a feeling Sslee is ex-engineer.

But i also think he kena burn properly here. If you need all these answer to buy the company, maybe it isn't as good an investment as you thought. I hope you can bounce back from whatever loss.

Investment security is held at fair value or market value.

No gain or loss. since it is recognized every quarter. In fact, i expect next quarter to be bad due to market drop.

Bad customer service is normal for a fast expanding co. But they appear to still be on top of it.

I think the increased complaints is due to the retail division increasing by 85% last year. So they should have at least 85% more complaints. Especially given the speed with which they are expanding.

I imagine it will be difficult to land a installation appointment.

As long as they are striving to be better, im ok with it.

Just finished the annual report, fairly happy with the results. Mostly in line with my expectations.

I should probably study the data center business more, as it appears quite lucrative. The wholesale data drop, is not very good. But i can see how OTT players would want their own lines. The rise in retail is in line with my expectation.

All in all, quite happy with the results. But allow me to state, the company is at fair value. This is a wonderful company at a fair price. It is not cheap. They are alot of companies that are very cheap in bursa now.

Size your investment with that in mind.

Haha. It would be funny if i enter top 20 despite losing money.

Haha. Alright. Good luck with your ventures. Im staying in :)

I will buy when it goes below Book Value, the insurance business for this company is second only to LPI. In terms of investment income though, they have some way to go.

I like these results, i think ill open a position here tmr. Question is now warrant or mother.

This is very insightful.

Thanks.

They are good companies trading at less than 6PE now. That's 50% cheaper. And its a bird in hand, instead of a bird in bush.

Not attacking your picks. Just pointing it out. The goal is to make money after all. Who right or wrong don't matter.

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Fabien Extraordinaire Taking into account of projected growth, forward PE is less than 14x. Depending on risk profile, some might wait to go in say less than 10x PE, some buffer to cushion any adverse outcome.

Company has been aggressive in expanding their capacity, sales likely to grow in the next few years.

You must have gotten burnt really badly, Probably due to margin.

I feel bad for you. Stay safe.


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Posted by khatulistiwa1234 > Apr 24, 2018 12:59 PM | Report Abuse

BYE , enough for this RIDICULOUS STOCK IN BURSA , I NOT MORE CONTRIBUTED ANY MORE , EJACULATED while mention about it , DAY AND NITE DIY .

I can see the potential growth for it, but its a cost based industry, and supply seem to be more than able to meet demand judging by the margin compression.

14 PE seems a bit rich for a company undergoing margin compression in a cost based industry.

Just my opinion of course, you may see differently. Let me know if you think i missed out on something


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Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Apr 23, 2018 09:15 PM | Report Abuse

It's true that margin has dropped by few percentage points due to rising resin and strengthening of ringgit but still remains healthy level la, not above 20% as enjoyed previously but approx. 17% is commendable.

I believe growth in sales would more than sufficient to cover the erosion in margin.

Demand for environmental friendly packaging is growing and the potential is huge.

Sales going up, but margin is compressing really heavily no?


Fabien Extraordinaire Have a look at SCGM. promising growth story too.
23/04/2018 17:32