thx madiba. to each their own. peace!

thx in advance. good night everyone.

madiba, pray tell which figure is obviously wrongly keyed from the direct copy-paste below. they follow your figures with the exception of the warrant and share count from online broking and adding another test for 3 years as a countercheck.


Testing the NYU Stern warrant evaluation
----------------------------------------------------
Enter the current stock price = 0.195
Enter the strike price on the option =0.200
Enter the expiration of the option = 3 years / 0.58 year
Enter the standard deviation in stock prices =25.00% (volatility)
Enter the annualized dividend yield on stock =0.00%
Enter the treasury bond rate = 3.85%
Enter the number of warrants (options) outstanding =183031190
Enter the number of shares outstanding =402668580

Testing MPAY on NWU Kellogg's warrant Evaluation
www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/thompsnt/htm/d42/ftp/warrval.xls
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Differences in input :
0.67 year i.e. 8 months to maturity instead of 0.58
3.44% 1-year bond rate instead of 3.85 for 8-year bond
adjusted volatility to obtain final Implied Volatility of 25.41%

Black Scholes gives 7.06 sen
Binomial (CRR) gives 7.07 sen

-----
for 3 years to maturity
Black Scholes gives 15.21 sen
Binomial (CRR) gives 15.21 sen

CONCLUSION :
The warrant pricing on this one is more realistic.
Fair value of MPAY-WA is 7 sen when mother is 19.5 sen.

Testing the NYU Stern warrant evaluation
----------------------------------------------------
Enter the current stock price = 0.195
Enter the strike price on the option =0.200
Enter the expiration of the option = 3 years / 0.58 year
Enter the standard deviation in stock prices =25.00% (volatility)
Enter the annualized dividend yield on stock =0.00%
Enter the treasury bond rate = 3.85%
Enter the number of warrants (options) outstanding =183031190
Enter the number of shares outstanding =402668580

Value of the call = $0.01 / $0.00

This spreadsheet gives 1 sen value to a warrant with 3 years to maturity.
That is NOT right.

lioncor improved but is it too late? the way almost all the steel companies are bleeding, i think got good chance to get a reprieve or else handling delisting one after another. still, i am taking no chances and just stay at the side.

my ramble on the vague reporting, especially
WORKED OVER OIL WELLS : Producing vs Non-producing......

1. SUMATEC own website currently:
SUMATEC expects to achieve production level of 2,000 barrels per day (bblpd) within the first 12 months, and will plateau at 9,000 bbld by the third year of operations.

2. 30Apr2014 http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1610237
KAZAKHSTAN OPERATIONS UPDATE : SUMATEC IN LINE TO ACHIEVE 2014 PRODUCTION TARGET WITH WORKOVER PROGRAM

QTE
The first workover well is expected to be completed and producing within three weeks, with the whole program planned to take four months, ending in August 2014 with twelve wells on production.

By the end of 2014, Sumatec plans to have fifteen wells on production as the rig will be used to drill three side tracks after the workover program has finished. Sumatec expects to achieve its target of 2000bbls/day from these fifteen wells.
UNQTE

3. from Q1 notes
- ONE workover well is producing oil, say well #1
- 2nd workover oil well to produce by end May

4. from Q2 notes
- THREE workover oil wells completed drg the qtr i.e. wells #1 #2 #3.

Revenue is about the same as Q1 with Brent avg price usd2 difference only. So still only well #1 producing and the others not yet producing?

5. from Q3 notes
- EIGHT workover oil wells completed drg the qtr i.e wells #1 thru #8.

Revenue is about 2x each of the previous qtrs. So, is it only well #1 + ONE/TWO other well(s) producing and all the others still not contributing?

6. from Q3 notes still
- targeting TWELVE oil wells completed + 4 gas test wells.

Happy with profit progress despite some hiccups (like 12 oil wells actual iso 15 target, thereby <2000 bblpd) but the reporting has to be more transparent.

Hope it helps us to seek better answers from the top management. AGM/EGM anyone?

tempting indeed at low 4.18 close 4.19.

more liquid for bigger holders to parse out their extra units.

after 2sen dividend few days ago, closing tday at 64sen . x3 for BI and split = rm1.92
before BI and split, it was rm2.34. looks like distribution to me.

while i find unit cost, unit revenue, capacity and actual production routinely published such as in the air transport industry, there is a clear dearth of equivalent statistics for stk1201 which must be improved upon (hint to CFO). no info on number of wells producing, how many bbblpd...

seems to be holding better these two days, and slowly up today.

ozzie75, i can confirm bangonluck's shared info. it appears in my m2u Online Stocks screen too.

OPEC fights on price squeeze hoping to derail another's domestic capacity. For the latter, it is more than just price and cost. It is also about more local jobs, less debt stress and, above all, energy security. Will the the US protect its own backyard at all costs? The saga unfolds.

thx madiba. i'll chk out the NYU Stern & NWU Kellogg calcs.

wow, investor99, salute your bravado.

I tested the same calculator on IFCAMSC and IRIS warrants and the answers are close to market price.

madiba, i used http://www.soarcorp.com/black_scholes_calculator.jsp and got over 6 sen.
can you point me to the one you are using to arrive at 2.5 sen. wanna see where i went wrong.

Circa 72k lots of Buy transacted inside just one minute (1228h) @0.230 in 70 continuous Buys. Something is up..... not Brent bcos the chart not dramatic.

America has a love hate relationship with Iran. Need to balance agst the Saudi/GCC axis to keep them in check. The US is home to many brilliant scholars of Persian origin. Can't say the same for the rest.

Like the once unconquerable Great Wall, the strength of OPEC will be undermined by its weakest link, not the clout of Saudi within OPEC.

If Iran adds, then if OPEC is true to their word to maintain OPEC volume, other members incl Saudi might have to cut back. Will they be happy to reduce bcos that means a reduction in each of their market shares too. Clever move by US to create even more dissent within OPEC.

today WA sell Q vhigh, almost like dumping. if not worth much, how come sell materialized....who is buying?

CCS acquired half mil shares today at 0.195
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1814981

dropped like a rock. epf likely disposing.....

AU JP KR CN HK TW SG ID indices all up today & yday (except TW red yday) but KLSE in the ditches. paying the price for contrarian practices?

still no trxn in 90mins from opening. operator must be having morning snack...

Good dividend. Price hammered though since BI & split.

Brent las6 60mins rally usd72 -> usd73 sparking buying flurry here to close at 0.235

Distribution since 12Nov.

Almost touching MA200.

The longer this continues, the more dissenting there will be among OPEC members. Folks like Venezuela and Algeria probably had to beappeased by giving them the chairmanship and vice chair.

ckwan, i picked up some skills along the way. hope i can use them effectively. thx for the tips on macd, wma/ema over sma, (parabolic?) sar.

we all hv regrets. one of mine is exiting ifcamsc too early when it moved up. no guts to hold longer when still unrated. now rated, i still hesitated eventho price swung few times way below my own short term valuation 'cos i still have Q marks. so, now just observe if i am right or wrong. learning. from my own perspective, Tech stocks in bursa are trickier than Resources counters, so better reserve my 'yes' guts for proven Resources.

after thheavy your good friends should uprate your well-intentioned advice next time.

tqvm for sharing.

Steelmakers' latest quarterlies in the red. CSCSTEL -3m, KINSTEL -32m (rev 78m), LIONCOR -85m (rev 605m), MASTEEL -6m, PERWAJA -45m, SSTEEL -21m (rev 610m), YKGI -8m.

the quality of airline management would be better, and rightly, measured from their operational P&L performance rather than one-off (punting) gain/loss attributable from hedging on jet kerosene. even an industry benchmark from the tiny red dot has fared mixed in fuel hedging over the years.

lower fuel prices benefit not only AA/AAX but all air carriers. once someone starts cutting their profit margin on seats, the revenue yield could drop to erode the cost reduction...a zero-sum gain.

just be cautious even if one is optimistic on current and near-term developments.

ckwan, am just a novice compared to you. some counters i am in are classified vv doubtful for others. risky to follow me. can't lead either for who am i to make buy-sell-entry-exit calls, especially if roses somehow turn into tulips. so, still learning. good luck to us indeed ;)

lcwin, tqvm for sharing.

Q3 results just out. Sterling?
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1809737

skpetro opened at 2.77 from lacp 3.09.

Tricky day tmrw but a quick company update / announcement to accompany the positive results should hopefully give a better picture going forward. Imperative to have the update imho.

Brent fell below $75 a barrel for the first time since September 2010 after OPEC left production limits unchanged at its meeting in Vienna.

“As I told you before there is no cut,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters as he left OPEC’s ministerial meeting in Vienna.

.....

15 mins ago.
Brent Falls Below $75 After OPEC Leaves Output Unchanged
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-26/wti-oil-extends-drop-from-four-year-low-as-opec-meets-on-output.html

Q1 results just out:
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1808605

Q1 results just out. Plusses for revenue, profit, eps, naps:
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1808389

Payment System Forum and Exhibition 2014 .....(today)

Bank Negara Malaysia and the National Cards Group (NCG) will be organising a Payment System Forum and Exhibition 2014 on 27 November 2014 at Sasana Kijang, Kuala Lumpur.
The theme of this year's forum is "Migration to E-payments: Payment Cards Acceptance".

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_press&pg=en_press_all&ac=3102

GHLSYS is one of 3 non-FI's, excl VI and MC.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/2014/Appendix%20I%20List%20of%20Exhibitors.pdf

Payment System Forum and Exhibition 2014 .....(today)

Bank Negara Malaysia and the National Cards Group (NCG) will be organising a Payment System Forum and Exhibition 2014 on 27 November 2014 at Sasana Kijang, Kuala Lumpur.
The theme of this year's forum is "Migration to E-payments: Payment Cards Acceptance".

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_press&pg=en_press_all&ac=3102

MPAY is one of 3 non-FI's, excl VI and MC.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/2014/Appendix%20I%20List%20of%20Exhibitors.pdf

am unable to place under any of my limited known formations/patterns. need to enlarge my librart :}

nomanland, on the enlarged Fibo Chart,
1. yes
2. una to place
3. consolidation, with a breakout where the red trenched
4. almost

wow. long grapevine. anywhere near forecast?

86868, am una to cfm. relative accumulation if based on FVE Red/Green upwards. but FVE Blue/Brown are the opp. thus, not conclusive enough (for me). in cimb online charting, the ADL with period 10 is still below the zero (distribution) but creeping up.