According to results....


Aircraft fuel expenses for 2014: 2,254,237,000



Say, fuel consumption remains more or less the same and say, the average jet fuel price has dropped a mere 25% (vs 50% for crude.. easier la like this no need to really know how many % is hedged at how much... a drop of 25% is reasonable)


So... 2,254,237,000 × 25% = 563,559,250 ie saving for 2015 roughly



The saving due to low fuel price for 2015 would be RM 563,559,250.... a bloody big figure no matter how you look at it


AirAsia's low jet fuel play is sound... and the reason for all the IBs' Buy call

r°Moi r°Moi This CMT episode.................. COPULATION TOMORROW!! ; )

r°Moi This CMT episode.................. COPULATION TOMORROW!! ; )

This CMT episode.................. COPULATION TOMORROW!! ; )

AirAsia is not accused of over charging its customers

It is accused of over charging its associates... these deals are among the companies.. if nobody in these companies complains... which outsiders have a say???

These agents are crazy... they will trade independently regardless of EPF holding of AirAsia

Overall how much EPF is burnt this time??

O.... EPF via its agent has got a hand in the selling

AirAsia should seriously consider charging these associates interest on the inter co loans to them...

AirAsia is not even controlling IAA PAA... there are majority shareholders in these associates... will they simply let Tony over charge??

Being shorted... and now being shot by a minister

The short sellers are pros...

Your bla bla the sky is falling here is surely being taken advantage of...

Today T3

Tomorrow T4... may be worst tomorrow... KIV closely




Posted by r°Moi > Jun 12, 2015 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

T3 T4.... for 78,342,300.... Focus

Isn't this selling today expected???

Really dare to come and short a second time??!!

This CMT shit has really taken a life of its own.... and advancing very quickly too....


Over all of less than 1 week...


The debts from IAA PAA..... From.... kinda high... to long outstanding... to maybe half cannot collect... to likely all cannot collect.... to IAA PAA are now likely bankrupt liao... to they are no more going concerns....

Dilutive rights..... no dilutive right la....

If the debts due from IAA PAA cannot be collected so soon... convert to their share capital la...


And... if both the CBs are successfully that would mean more than Tony alone are having faith in AirAsia



Convert the debts to share capital.... JV partners also financially strong too what..



GMT's low valuation of airasia is based on dilutive rights,.... Is this in fact what CMT said???


pekor Convertible Bonds will buy Airasia 2 years to turn around Indo/Phillipine associate company.

GMT's low valuation of airasia is based on dilutive rights, which will not happen if the CB is issued.

Bloody CMT is hitting here and there... and contradicting itself too... to fish for accounting anomalies



Today volume is too small... not yet

Bloody circular weights a ton..... the efforts OLH has put in.... you know he is pretty serious in making a big bundle out from this thingy

Somewhere in the circular.... for indication purpose.... the warrant C exercise price will be at 7% discount to the weighted average of mother


Compare this..... AAX.... mother price 0.2+... warrant exercise price 0.46

AirAsia price has lost more than 20% in a matter of months.... unqualified crash.... in bear territory

Likely for it to get into bear territory and some???

Afren shares lost 26.5 per cent, after the oil explorer said it had missed another debt repayment and was in default.


Calvin careful now.....

Confirm 110%!!! Betul? Pasti?


AirAsia is very complicated so you can never be110% sure about this...

But... at the price now...... a plane dropping from the sky..... Yellen doing her thing... Fitch and Moody too downgrade...... RM:USD to 4.00.... 1MDB missing a couple of billions more... gullible people believing CMT..... debts from IAA PAA not recoverable... a Rights Issue..... MERS... TAA cant go South Korea no more.... what else? oh ya... oil prices going back to beyond USD 100.... whatever... etc etc.. etc should be ought to be more or less already been priced in

Except in the very very short term... be careful

......The June 10 report questioned the airline’s “accounting, profit generation, cash-flow issues, leverage and group structure,” GMT Research’s founder Gillem Tulloch said in an e-mail Friday


Based solely in this...


"accounting......... group structure,”

GMT could well be taking issue with AirAsia that IAA and PAA results (losses) are not taken into account in AirAsias results...

GMT could well be contending that IAA and PAA should be treated as subsidiaries not associates ... arguing that AirAsia has control of these companies even though it has just forty over %.. based on.. well.. these companies bear the name AirAsia, using AirAsias systems, Tony is key... blah blah blah and all that, as such... should bear the full brunt of their losses..



“accounting, profit generation,

CMT could well be contending that AirAsia is generating higher income/profit by over charging its associates on leasing of aircrafts...



These are just r°Moi takes on CMTs thoughts which r°Moi don't think proper on CMTs part

Think GMTs main contention is the treatment of IAA and PAA as associates... simply given that their names bear AirAsias namesake.. AirAsia


And... if that is not successful... then to contend on whether the debts due from them may not be recoverable...


Old stuff..


Anyway... their approach is very unprofessional... they should seek clarification with AirAsia first before issuing their report.. not the other round

...... this counter has 20% of Net profit margin each year and generate 30.8 mil profit. It will need to take 20 years in order to realize the RM655 mil.



riskabsorber


In 1 year GLBs value will be... 30.8 mil + RM655 mil.


In 20 years the value will be... 20 x 30.8 mil + RM655 mil.

Knowing the short sellers' trick is one thing


Can beat them at their own game or not... is quite another

T3 T4.... for 78,342,300.... Focus

Standby with cash... of course

But cool down... cool down... cool down..

Standby with cash... of course

The actions gonna be fast...

The actions gonna be furious...

Standby

Standby...


Margin call... T3... T4 vs Short covering...

It is domino effect that the short sellers are capitalising on.....

Margin call.. T3.. T4...

Mat Salleh seeling... yes

Short selling... yes

How about forced selling?? Have effect of forced selling being priced in??




Posted by r°Moi > Jun 11, 2015 11:32 AM | Report Abuse X

Wah.... looks like Mat Salleh selling.... short selling..... forced selling o

Mat Salleh used to have around 61% in early 2015..... ought to be lesser now


2,783,066,019 × say 50% is..................

riskabsorber

.... It only 23% of the proceed, which mean if Gland do not go thru the disposal, it will need to takes 20 years only able to get this RM655 million.


Afraid this argument is not right.....

SinGor... this is how violent death looks like... wish that you have stepped aside earlier

Ya.. I said before... management looks like already rather tired with the plantation business... surrendering... even when the trees are maturing

OLH is taking his time ya... OLH should have worked out all the scenerios and the proforma like 100 times befote... when he was cooking up this assets injection thingy..

Maybe he is having trouble on how to say it politically correct on why he is giving the free warrant and special dividend... Can't be saying "I give you goodies you vote for me".. right? ; )

Just say... To reward shareholders for their loyalties ler.. whatever the outcome is AYE!!

AirAsia... complicated... you wont even know what are hitting you...

AirAsia ripple will spread................................................... watch your other counters

If AirAsia is in the CI... the whole market mood would be soured... Now it is hidden,,, will whole Bursa be spared??

violent...................... just imagine if AirAsia is in the CI

Got standby money or not??

Wah.... looks like Mat Salleh selling.... short selling..... forced selling o

GLD is selling off all its core sources of income... way too very very big part of its business

Post disposal it will have no meaningful income except interest from FD....


Say special dividend 0.50 so at 1.50 you cost is 1.00


Ya NTA still 2.50 but you can see but can't touch as new planting needs money need time... property development needs money need time... maybe need time is even worst


So you are paying 1.00 for a company that only have interest from FD....


Interest from FD.... How much value you give to this? Is it a good deal to pay 1.00 for it??


So the situation is you are investing 1.00 in a company with 2.50 NTA but with no business income for at least 3 4 5 years...


Up to you if it is a good deal

Macquarie expects RM:USD to be 3.98 by SEP

Now even local analyst are putting 4.00 to happend within next few months to DEC as a possiblity...

This would mean Mat Salleh think RM:USD hardly hit the floor yet at current level... more hardship

Mat Salleh leaving without saying goodbye....

This is a clear warning to those who have a fetish on companies with prices with deep discounts to their NTAs

This is as close as you can get to the high RNTA... and see what is happening...