At that time, I saw the fund manager is someone can walked on water.....when comes to investment.....I can't exactly but his investment return of CDAM fund performance was really fantastics...
Year ** YoY returns
1998 + 20%
1999 57%
2000 1%
2001 8.7%
2002 12.7%
2003 39.7%
2004 16.2%

Prior to iCap launched, the fund manager is managing fund for private investor and it's not available to small retail investors. I will probably take many back right to Asian Financial Crisis.....

Let me share my own experience on my personal investment in iCAP.....way back to 19 years ago....Oops probably you will know I am not young anymore....

I have my own theory of premium/discount from psychology point of view, EXPECTATIONS, the expectations of growth prospect of a company and cost of capital.....but let's put aside the cost of capital as aside today....such as CAPM, risk free, etc. ...In English, an investor is willing pay for high Price Earning Multiple for example is due the company has demonstrated high growth in the past and investor will project high growth in the future indefinitely...when the growth is fall short, darlings turn into fallen angels, we will see PE multiples will collapse rapidly. Say 50 times PE ratio will collapse quickly to mid or even single digit.

They are trying to borrow some credibility by using UTS of which top 90 in QS World University Rankings 2024, is it necessarily? Thank God it's only university not Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs..🤡

If I’m COL, I want to proof a point. Since the fund manager said they have done the wonderful promotions with all kinds of roadshows, there should be shareowners stepping in now, with 30% discount to NAV.

Ever since they announced the innovative dividend policy and reminding COL not to buy, the share price keeps dropping, like a falling hot knife cutting through a butter. Oh perhaps, they will say correction is normal since it’s overbought…. well, we shall wait and see what will happen when it’s oversold(soon).

Or perhaps, easiest explanation later, damn COL is causing troubles again…. COL will be the sacrificial lamb lagi!

Thanks. Understood. Learn so much......I am pretty sure to many, are still weighing the probabilities, the chance of COL become a white knight is dead or alive. Some thought COL is checkmated with the 20% foreign ownership.
Now it also becomes clearer to me why the fund manager is getting paranoid. They possibly think, in the unlikely event of MGO, the minority of shareholders will receive the short end of the stick. This can be also a political capital to talk about.

I will leave that to other to imagine......not sexy, if there is nothing left for imagination. TGIF🍻

@dumbMoney. The 33% parties in concert rule will be triggered if COL as a fund manager with multiple funds, hypothetically, exceeded the 33% ownership? Falls under a number of shareholders acting in concert? Kam siah😁😁

To all - - apologise for all the typos and sometimes missing words, hard for me to do proof readings in a small tiny comment window. Cheers

@dumbMoney. Yesterday conversation on 20% foreign owneship limit is a non event to me... from law point of view. Next is 33% concert parties.. Care to elaborate? What is rule and it's implications?

@dumbMoney. Yes.. Re enlarged ownership only 2.3% with 10% buyback that's why I softened my view. It's doesn't affect me at all but for the benefits of other readers that may not understand this impact, the clarification will help them a lot.

I see....no wonder the irresistible force met with big batu.....they will automatically feel defensive as they perceived as a threat as if they get questioned why they got paid full NAV while not fixing the discounts...

Fixing discounts is not easy....it's involved technical and emotional aspects. Sharebuy back is one way, as I put forth the other issue of COL ownership will be enlarged....but somewhere you made a comment that we may not need to do full blown buy back just some small % like 10% may be enough to fix the discounts. The other part of discounts is old friends fear and greed in play.

I understand better now, COL model is to find big discounts in closed end funds, fix the discounts and move on next projects. Unfortunately it was misunderstood . COL was projected as a villain or corporate raider. Or may be lack of scientific explanation - pure birth dates bo ngam😂😂

I have opened up my kimono now...usually left with not much imagination is not so sexy anymore

There is also something about his concentration strategy, good point of this strategy, when he gets 1 home run, it will pay for his dogs in the portfolio. Only people that really know what they are doing this can deliver long term results. I saw people rant about his Boustead pick....one of his dogs but he has Petronas Dagangan, F & N, Padini, SEM etc....enough to offset those dogs.

For me, TTB is not bad or at least he understands it is so much easier to lose money than make money. From money management point of view is quite conservative. He is someone who dares to make a big swing when something is selling at ridiculous price. A few of his winners are also nicely picked on growth story. He held on to winners as long as he can but his strength also become his weakness, he held on to losses(from price point of view) way too long such Parkson. He wins more than his losses.

buying something cheap may remains cheap....value trap. There is something deeper than than I believe....

dumbMoney - thank you for correcting me.....it's on prosecutor.... the accused is already kesian enough. Paiseh....

Now back to two important questions : what COL knows that the rest of us don't know? What potential COL saw when they took such a big position?

I will not feel aggrieved that someone buy above 20%....perhaps most of the shareholders only listen to 1 side of the story and also putting the seed of fear COL will liquidate the fund. I have not seen COL sold a single share during such a poor showing of NAV. We even have people started to work out the performance themselves in the last few days in this forum. They convinced what is cause the discount....it means losing faith in the fund manager....they vote with their wallet despite of knowing they are selling at a huge discounts.

Agreed - good enough for me on the balance of probabilities and not beyond reasonable doubt, unlike in the criminal case. And also, burden of proof on civil case is on the plaintiff(iCAP), unlike criminal case the burden of proof is on the defendant. I bet on COL. Just to make things clear, I am no lawyers but just happened to read a few novels by John Grisham..😂😂

Thanks for the explanations on the definition because I was confused that whenever there were changes of shares, the put that in the bucket of indirect interest. Now all the dots got connected with your second part of the explanations. So just ignore all the announcement. It's just distractions.

Anyway - I have learnt a hard lesson too that litigations only make lawyers rich. Hostile take over is expensive. Settle disagreements by shaking hands quickly. Let's focus on business. Grow the NAV.....if today NAV is $50 ...all will be the winners regardless of big or small shareholders.

Also definition of a single shareholder.....they may be pushing a wet string trying to proof multiple shareholders is actually the same shareholder......conspiracy theory argument? Aiya.....I wish to tail along since I got no many things to do.....more exciting that watch dramas.

I got it now --- iCap make such announcements were just a psychological warfare confusing people like me....😫😫Mum somebody bullies me.

I know that the house will win even 1% edge will make a lot of money.....51% on the house 49% on players.

dumbMoney - between COL and iCap who is the house?

At the point of IPO,I don't think they have thought out this scenario of either foreign investor or local investor can be a major controlling investor. Now that they have learn this lesson, they could have retreat and employing lawyers to beef up their positions.

I will hantam kuat kuat and if I am COL, I will keep buying till it cross 25% then no way they can amend their constitutions to their advantage(if by law 75% shareholders approval is required for constitutions amendment).

Sorry...I missed out that you have read their constitutions 3 times, I thought you read Patient Investor post 3 times🙄. And you now said you can't find that....then that guy is naked la....no need to wait for the tides to recede. 🤗🤗

Yup - it's well possible that they may just use what they can find from SICDA and it is not written in their constitutions. But SICDA is passing back the bucks to the company by saying to enforce it that will depend on what is written in the constitutions. I am pretty sure they will guard that constitutions now very tightly and nobody has seen it. It's okay to let them hide in the dark...if they don't have it and nobody entertains them......it is just all barks.....just playing poker and calling the bluffs. I will wait it out and see when the tides recede, is the guy naked. 🤣🤣

Or COL can do an outright purchase another few more % to kill the whole thing....👻👻

Re SICDA posted by Patient Investor & dumbMoney - looks like at hindsight iCap made a mistake for not defining the rule clearly, they may need to do amendment. Amendment will be a messy thing and will require very high percentage approval from shareholders....I am not sure of the %....2/3 majority or 75%....???

Out of my competency on company law, found a reference for comment

https://dnh.com.my/the-importance-of-a-company-constitution-in-malaysia/

If it's really true 75%, just a few % from minority shareholders + COL 23% already can easily blocking it. 😉

Haha.....SmartMoney?😱😱 Hat too big....head too small.....almost empty inside too....worried get suffocated. Leave that to TTB if he would like to join us in this forum....he will know we all are nice guys after a few rounds of sparing. 🍻

Give me a high five......I feel like wanna to change my name to SlowMoney000 ady....🤑🤑

Assuming you still want 1 million in your lifetime - it's really boils down to 2 things - it's either the base or the return rate....

Still at 4% ..... what is the base ?

Year ** Portfolio value RM

1 ** 150,000
10 ** 222,037
15 ** 270,142
20 ** 328,668
25 ** 399,875
30 ** 486,510
35 ** 591,913
40 ** 720,153
45 ** 876,176
50 ** 1,066,003

This is what I feel it is more human, each of us need to reach a big enough base to overcome something called escape velocity... How to find 1st 150,000 ? 😂😂

This will what happened if it is compounded at 4% with the same 5,000

Compounding RM 5,000 at 4% p.a.
Year ** Portfolio value RM
1 ** 5,000
10 ** 7,401
15 ** 9,005
20 ** 10,956
25 ** 13,329
30 ** 16,217
35 ** 19,730
40 ** 24,005
45 ** 29,206
50 ** 35,533

If you are 24 years old now, waking up at 74 years young, remembering you supposed to have 5 million only to found out that you get 35,533.... how will you feel ? 😅

The difference under promise over deliver....and live long enough.....compounding it for sure for a long time.....

I find that Warren Buffett is really much more down to earth.

In his 1962 letter, Buffett shared the story of Queen Isabella of Spain sponsoring Christopher Columbus’s voyage in 1492 to find a “new world” at a cost of around US$ 30,000. Buffett called it a low-compound investment, as the same money invested at 4% compounded annually would have amounted to something like US$ 2 trillion by 1962 (or 470 years later).

I'm gonna extract some information from iCap 2023 Annual Report (page 11)

Compounding RM 5,000 at 15% p.a.
Year ** Portfolio value RM
1 ** 5,000
10 ** 20,228
15 ** 40,685
20 ** 81,833
25 ** 164,595
30 ** 331,059
35 ** 665,878
40 ** 1,339,318
45 ** 2,693,846
50 ** 5,418,287

Nothing wrong with the math....only thing it is injecting the idea to hold iCap for 50 years to get 5.4 million by just buying about 2,000 shares today. I understand the context perfectly of his point of do not interrupt compounding process unnecessarily. But we all know the higher the hope, the higher the disappointment when someone can't deliver that high rate without a single year of money losing for 50 years.

If you dream to be a millionaire -- you will know why path is more realistic. 😁

@i3gambler : Good to do your own calculation and arrive your own conclusions....✌✌

@Patient Investor....it will be immaterially affecting the views of EPF vs iCap with same amount of money invested regularly but with different risk: EPF guarantee no loss of money with minimum 2.5% dividend and it's written in the law and average of 6% in past 10 years. While iCap is making a lot promises of Low Risk High Return. How to translate this into numbers? I wish we can get an answer.

BTW, Dividend received in 2013 will be 17,372 and 2022 will be 62,996 = 80,836 based on above accumulated quantity....added back to my calculation the gap is still quite far.

How one want to allocate their hard earned money is very personal. I am only giving my views for other think about. Nobody is certain of anything except death and taxes. Who knows one day TTB is really able to delivery CAGR 15% in the next 20 years? Who knows? Between hope and a bit more certain, how will we allocate our capital? That's up to the readers in this forum to decide for themselves.

Dollar averaging cost busted!

I'm modelling real life how people will put their money to work rather than calculating cumulative return since inception and you put your money only 1 time at the point of inception or IPO....at the end of the day, it's money in our bank that counts not those nice return numbers published in annual report. 😂😂

Okie....I am going to use iCap share price at the end of each of their FY since it's an investor return(not fund manager return -- NAV) and we are going to use the same 36 k per year for 19 years

Year ** Price ** Addition ** Qty share bought
2005 ** 1.08 ** 36,000 ** 33,333
2006 ** 1.46 ** 36,000 ** 24,658
2007 ** 2.62 ** 36,000 ** 13,740
2008 ** 1.39 ** 36,000 ** 25,899
2009 ** 1.74 ** 36,000 ** 20, 690
2010 ** 2.09 ** 36,000 ** 17,225
2011 ** 2.05 ** 36,000 ** 17,561
2012 ** 2.37 ** 36,000 ** 15,190
2013 ** 2.47 ** 36,000 ** 14,575
2014 ** 2.4 ** 36,000 ** 15,000
2015 ** 2.37 ** 36,000 ** 15,190
2016 ** 2.55 ** 36,000 ** 14,118
2017 ** 2.92 ** 36,000 ** 12,329
2018 ** 2.54 ** 36,000 ** 14,173
2019 ** 2.47 ** 36,000 ** 14,575
2020 ** 2.19 ** 36,000 ** 16,438
2021 ** 2.52 ** 36,000 ** 14,286
2022 ** 2.25 ** 36,000 ** 16,000
2023/May ** 2.32 * 36,000 * 15,517

Total accumulated quantity 330,497
Value at 4/10/2023 $ 2.64 = 872,511
Assume it's zero discount at NAV of 3.53 will be valued at 1.1 million

It's still kalah to EPF....for 19 years....EPF will work out to be 1.28 million with the same 36 k per year addition.

If someone earning 10 k per month, 22% mandatory contribution will be 2.2 k + 0.8 k personal top up will get you to this 3k target.

I forgot about the 36 k annual addition in my calculation that arrived at 894 k

Just a correction ya...the balance at year 2022 498 k with annual addition 36 k for next 10 years compounded at 6%...by year 2032 will be 1.39 million.

Aspiration and reality are 2 different things......that is why we need to be humble in the market

For many people always thinking fast money....slow is actually fast....everybody understand positive compounding effects but it's just not sexy or macho enough.....I have seen many people pouring money into something that they always thinking annual compounding 15% consecutively for 20 years.....Even icap in 2023 annual report using 15% compounding rate.....subtly giving people impression he can do it at that rate