Posted by probability > 2019-01-12 14:32 | Report Abuse

aiya...dont say like that...continue challenge everyone...only then we all can benefit...

your SOP and hibi will do very well...likely top 5 winner of 2019..

post i3 blogger forum presentation here...i want listen how you speak also...

Posted by Outliar > 2019-01-12 14:37 | Report Abuse

When is the I3 blogger forum? Is it open to the public?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-12 14:48 | Report Abuse

Icon,

I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.

Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.

Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.

Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.

I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the other person. 20% or 15% is still huge.

You say my conservatism is the bad part. Globally, in order to be the top 1%, you need USD32,400 in income. Im pretty close for this one.

And a net worth of USD770k, or about RM3.2m. I expect to hit this figure in 15 years if i compound at 10%, with savings per annum rising at 3% (this is very conservative as i'm very good at what i do, and i work damn bloody hard).

Personally, i expect to be hit the top 1% in the world by my mid thirties or less than 10 years.

And i intend to keep that whealth. Instead of the many retail participants here who have their horror story of how they become very rich and lost in all in their thirties.

At my own age cohort, i'm fairly certain my networth is top 1-5% in malaysia.

in any event, when you have enough money, its just a number on a screen and high score. Im not one to risk what i need for what i want haha.

My method suits me, because of my temperament and how i think. I buy more when prices go down, if i'm a trader, i will die. And i sell when it goes above fair value.

Some money, not for me to earn.

=====
Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 5, 2019 06:11 AM | Report Abuse

Yes. Jon will very likely underperform in bull and in normal market

That is the weak link of his investing model

Which is why I until now is still not convinced that it is suitable for him

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-12 14:52 | Report Abuse

probability,

I wont be preparing a speech. i expect to just wing it. Just go there and start talking, more fun this way.

in any event, i dont think i am in a position to be giving advice at my age, when the audience are all much older than me. I may have studied it abit deeper than most on this topic, but, a person in their fifties or sixties have lived alot more.

Like they say, they've eaten more salt than i have eaten rice.

I'll probably just share my experience, talk a little on how i think, and take questions.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-12 15:14 | Report Abuse

Dont hv to bother abt i3Value's remark...u looks ok to me..

One day if i want to change my fengsui i may hv to borrow yr photo too...TIA

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-12 15:18 | Report Abuse

Haha thanks CharlesT.

This year i decided to ignore all low value add individuals and i'm quite happy to find myself perfectly ease doing so.

When the phone don't ring, you know its me. Hahaha

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-12 15:23 | Report Abuse

Luckily i m not that low value to u...

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-12 15:31 | Report Abuse

Dear Jon Choivo,
Glad to hear that you will be giving a speech at the i3 blogger forum. I too was invited to be one of the speakers and was given a slot of 25 minutes to present my paper. My presentation title:
Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value INSAS: refer below link.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/189654.jsp

And received one critical review comment from Ricky Yeo: The value of a business is the expected future cash flow. That's it. You don't go alter the concept and add NTA into the entire valuation. This is how people mess up investing. Now your whole valuation is wrong.

Where is that guy that adds all the lands of Hengyuan into the future earnings and value HY at $90 per share.
10/01/2019 20:24

I response: Dear Ricky Yeo,
Do not understand what you mean as I do not add in NTA. I only look into Non-current asset and break it down to those at end of life span equal to zero. And those subsidiary/buildings generating DCF in term of (dividend /rent growing at rate 4% and discount rate at 4%) and for land the PV=current price x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N and assuming that appreciation rate is equal discount rate then Land do not appreciate nor depreciated maintain same Present value with no DCF generated.

For current asset – total liabilities. These excess cash or cash equivalent is then use to generate DCF (certain % earning with growth of 4 % and discount rate of 4%) with present value discounted at 4 %
I use duration of 10 year for INSAS.
Please pinpoint what wrong with this calculation.

Thank you
10/01/2019 20:52

I receive no further comment from Ricky Yeo. So can you help me as I use intrinsic value of INSAS base on DCF of Sum (assets + future earnings) what does Ricky Yeo mean by “You don't go alter the concept and add NTA into the entire valuation.”

See you at the i3 blogger forum

Thank you
P/S: I just goggled, Fundamental analysis and put my thought into paper on the above article. I will send the article to newly appointed INSAS CEO Dato’ Wong for his comment on coming Monday.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 15:51 | Report Abuse

sslee

Insas CEO not going to give u some Insas shares.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 15:52 | Report Abuse

to analyse Insas start by analyzing its revenue account....what can they do?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 15:53 | Report Abuse

the market is right to conclude, 10 years from today...stilll the same company, still the same price.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-12 15:57 | Report Abuse

Strange boy....


Choivo Capital
2635 posts
Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 12, 2019 02:48 PM | Report Abuse

Icon,

I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.

Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.

Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.

Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.

I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 15:57 | Report Abuse

10 years from today....NTA may be $ 3 , may be $ 2.....no difference...price will still be $ 1.00 to 60 sen.

NAV is already substantially above $ 3....

why? market is right or market is wrong?

to me , market has valued it just right.......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 15:58 | Report Abuse

y Icon8888 > Jan 12, 2019 03:57 PM | Report Abuse


I expect to under-perform the index in bull years,
============

anyone who cannot make money from bull market better stay home.....

strange indeed..

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-12 16:08 | Report Abuse

don't make money from bull market, make money from what?

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-14 17:31 | Report Abuse

very much like Oaktree/Howard Marks

Choivo Capital
2635 posts
Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 12, 2019 02:48 PM | Report Abuse

Icon,

I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.

Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.

Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.

Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.

I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-15 11:13 | Report Abuse

Make less in bull, make more in normal, make the most in bear.



===
qqq3 don't make money from bull market, make money from what?
12/01/2019 16:08

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-15 11:19 | Report Abuse

a conservative approach don't make money in bears, u just lose less.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-15 11:24 | Report Abuse

what can one buy that can make money during bear markets?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-15 11:48 | Report Abuse

A conservative and intelligent investor, during bull markets, will be increasingly conservative with his purchases and cash allocation.

As he knows the high the price is, the higher the risk of permanent loss of capital.

While during bear markets, he will become increasingly aggressive (to a point) as prices fall, as he knows the lower the price, the lower the risk.

What he buys in bear, goes up in normal and bull markets.

I bought a lot in 2018, at bottom or close to bottom prices. My error was not being conservative enough in 2017.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-15 12:09 | Report Abuse

choi

every thing is about character, habits and practise.....and of course, easier if don't have to give excuses to customers.....

By having customers, your chances of success is questionable....

By having customers, it becomes excuses for poor performances.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-15 12:13 | Report Abuse

furthermore...imagine, having bought low enough and eventually the shares go above water....then how? sell at various stages of recovery ...then what happens? The game don't end there.......

Or like Tan Ten Boo, makes some money in early years.....and miss the market for the subsequent 10 years.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-15 12:21 | Report Abuse

They are other opportunities, my capital is small. great industries turn cold and then hot.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Its really a waste of time replying to you.

Posted by FamousAmos > 2019-01-15 13:47 | Report Abuse

Choi is not here not make money from market. He is here to prove he is right. He needs attention

Posted by FamousAmos > 2019-01-15 13:51 | Report Abuse

One thing I must admit value investors in i3 are good in England. They can write 10000 words essay with no contents. Aka good buklshitter

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-15 14:27 | Report Abuse

its all England, no character, no habit.....I have my doubts......

Posted by FamousAmos > 2019-01-16 10:00 | Report Abuse

and why the f icon has choi's annoying pic as his dp

Posted by wiki123 > 2019-01-23 08:44 | Report Abuse

missing my fren, Charles.... mana lu pigi?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-23 08:49 | Report Abuse

LOL I miss him too

Miss his 6 sense 7 sense 67 sense

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-28 09:55 | Report Abuse

icon......every educated young man starts out like choi....

But the very good ones learns about reinvestment risks early on......


otherwise, no point one.......it is just up and down, up and down forever.....

are good investors born or created? I think there is a limit education can help. ....so much of it is character.

All the theory in the world also no help if the Q, skill and talent is not there.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-28 10:00 | Report Abuse

surprisingly, the most adaptable, open minded and flexible old timers in i3 are two old men

one is qqq3, the other is icon8888

most of the others don't dare to walk out of the room without their warren buffalo book in hand

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-28 10:13 | Report Abuse

I have seen a lot of successful stock market people...but none of them Quote here quote there....they all have their ways.......but can succeed in a meaningful way if carry 20 or more stocks? I have never seen one before........

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-28 10:28 | Report Abuse

no need quote here quote there.....some people got very good sense of timing......they managed to avoid all the big drops....a few rounds of that.....they emerge a big winner......why? because these people got very focused portfolios and managed to sell right......

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-28 10:31 | Report Abuse

It has to be a combination of independent thinking and warren buffalo

Only commies quote here quote there

(That is how the ruskies gone bankrupt)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-28 10:32 | Report Abuse

Deng stopped quote here quote there and now they started to make a bit of money

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-28 10:47 | Report Abuse

knowledge is not skill

Quote here quote there is knowledge not skill.


I know public figures need to quote here quote there to impress others....

quote here quote there is just a lazy way to think.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-28 10:49 | Report Abuse

MI also doing well...I also got.

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-28 16:41 | Report Abuse

when you survived the black swan events then only ur skills are credible la..

Posted by 5354_ > 2019-02-03 15:38 | Report Abuse

Cheating on QL PE34? No wonder lousy performance.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-11 13:46 | Report Abuse

I wonder if, "adaptable, open minded and flexible" is synonym for "No real philosophy" beyond whatever potentially spurious correlations at that point in time.


====
Icon8888 surprisingly, the most adaptable, open minded and flexible old timers in i3 are two old men

one is qqq3, the other is icon8888

most of the others don't dare to walk out of the room without their warren buffalo book in hand
28/01/2019 10:00

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-11 13:55 | Report Abuse

so...is this guy Time.com 5% or 50% as some other posts suggest?

see....such inconsistencies is a reflection of your true self....not the quote here quote there just for show.......

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-13 00:43 | Report Abuse

Change in comparative valuation.

It was in my original 59%, than as i buy more of other things and put in more money, it fell to the current 17%.

Of course, i don't expect you to be able to understand it.

Go look at your charts for 8 hours a day pls. Tks.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-13 00:54 | Report Abuse

choi...what u do none of my business.....and not interested....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-13 01:11 | Report Abuse

so from 1 jan to now...your Timecom went from 5% to 59% to 17% .....portfolio turnover even faster than mine......then what is the use of the all quote here quote there?


another talk East go West.....talk 3 talk 4....

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 23:19 | Report Abuse

wah really soooo diversified

Posted by newbie5354_ > 2019-04-01 21:12 | Report Abuse

Is the portfolio real life? Why no postings in eg AirAsia?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-04-01 21:44 | Report Abuse

I'm one of those weird people who think that great ideas don't come easily and are pretty rare.

And so, I'm not that keen to share them with anyone other than friends, family or my investors.

Nor am I one of those whose confidence in their research is so low, they feel the need to try and fry up the price.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-05 05:12 | Report Abuse

What happened ? Why negative ? Any comment ?

Posted by kckcloh > 2019-11-05 18:53 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, don't forget to take your medicine

Posted by paperplane > 2019-12-16 19:25 | Report Abuse

Hehe. Icon pulling his leg