DJ and Nasdaq collapse , but FCPO overnight UP. FCPO May $7,100, Jun $6,848, Jul $6,477 despite we are in high production season now.
CPO will stay high at least until 2023 attributed to the following development :
1. No export of sunflower oil, wheat, barley etc from Ukraine as the war raging on and the Apr/May 2022 planting season will be missed.
2. Next planting season is Apr/may 2023 for harvest in July/Aug 2023. Uncertainty around.
3. Russia is bombing the railway connecting to Europe as it is used to deliver western weapon. No inland logistic capability to enable export .
4. Russia will permanently occupy southern ukraine and black sea . Ukraine has no access to shipping route.
5. Limited capability to boost production elsewhere due to shortage of fertilizers, wild weather swing etc.

Hold on to your Bplant to reap the full gain to come.

The reason why capital gain over 2 years and 1 year period from investing in UP, IOI, Simeplant and even KLK is so much lower than the small and midsize plantations is now very obvious!
I shall remain focus on the small and midsize plantations like SOP, Taann, Bplant, HSplant, cepat, MHC, swkplant, Thplant. These plantations will reap the highest return from the high and increasing CPO trend.

DJ and Nasdaq collapse , but FCPO overnight UP. FCPO May $7,100, Jun $6,848, Jul $6,477.
CPO will stay high at least until 2023 attributed to the following development :
1. No export of sunflower oil, wheat, barley etc from Ukraine as the war raging on and the Apr/May 2022 planting season will be missed.
2. Next planting season is Apr/may 2023 for harvest in July/Aug 2023. Uncertainty around.
3. Russia is bombing the railway connecting to Europe as it is used to deliver western weapon. No inland logistic capability to enable export .
4. Russia will permanently occupy southern ukraine and black sea . Ukraine has no acesss to shipping route.
5. Limited capability to boost production elsewhere due to shortage of fertilizers, wild weather swing etc.

With very strong positive cashflow from operationw coupled with intended disposal of Sarawak estates, Bplant will be a nett cash company very soon. Privatisation is on the card.

A very thorough study on Bplant. It is too grossly undervalued indeed .

The plantation companies that sell their produce on spot month basis won't have the problem of UP. These plantations are Taann, SWKplant, Hsplant, Bplant, THplant, MHC, Cepat and even SOP who have reverted to spot selling since 2nd Q 2021. These plantations will reap the highest benefit from >200% surge of CPO price.

I am very sorry to say that UP's Management is real hopeless ! They continue to make huge losses on hedging the wrong side for the last 2 years. This has resulted huge amount of good money wasted and shareholders missed the opportunity to reap the benefit of the 200% surge in CPO price.
(1) The realised CPO price for Q1 2022 is only $3,798 as compared to average spot price of $6,050 ! That is massive difference of $2,252/mt CPO ($6,050 - 3,798) !!
The opportunity loss in NPBT = $2,252 X 57,865 mt CPO produced = $130.3 mil . After considering windfall tax and corporate tax , the opportunity loss in NPAT is about $84 mil or 20sen/share.

(2) as at 31/3/2022, the company suffers loss on outstanding hedges amounting to a massive $222 mil . About $150 mil of the hedging loss is has been accounted for in Q1 2022. This $150 mil hedging loss is equivalent to about 27sen /share of nett profit loss.

Without (1) and (2) above, the company should report EPS to the tune of 61.4 sen ( 14.4 +20+27).
Shareholders should take the management to task !

Crack spread May has reached historic high !

Crack spread for May has reached historic high !

CPO and refined palm oil are in one direct chain. How to restrict refined palm oil export without restricting CPO export ?

JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): Indonesian government officials told palm oil companies on Monday that an export ban announced late last week would cover shipments of refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm olein but not crude palm oil, two industry sources told Reuters.
Though an exemption of crude palm oil from the export curbs will be positive for global markets, the majority of Indonesia's palm exports are in the form of processed oils and remain affected by the ban.
There were still concerns that crude palm oil would also be added to the list of banned products, as it is raw material for RBD palm olein.
According to data from Indonesia's palm oil association (GAPKI) exports of processed CPO in 2021 stood at 25.7 million tonnes, or 75% of total exports of palm products. CPO exports were 2.74 million tonnes in 2021, or 7.98% of the shipments.
------------------------------------------------------------------
The news is too sketchy. No official details from government yet. Better to stay calm for more details to emerge.

JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): Indonesian government officials told palm oil companies on Monday that an export ban announced late last week would cover shipments of refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm olein but not crude palm oil, two industry sources told Reuters.
Though an exemption of crude palm oil from the export curbs will be positive for global markets, the majority of Indonesia's palm exports are in the form of processed oils and remain affected by the ban.
There were still concerns that crude palm oil would also be added to the list of banned products, as it is raw material for RBD palm olein.
According to data from Indonesia's palm oil association (GAPKI) exports of processed CPO in 2021 stood at 25.7 million tonnes, or 75% of total exports of palm products. CPO exports were 2.74 million tonnes in 2021, or 7.98% of the shipments.
------------------------------------------------------------------
The news is too sketchy. No official details from government yet. Stay calm for clarity to emerge soon

JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): Indonesian government officials told palm oil companies on Monday that an export ban announced late last week would cover shipments of refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm olein but not crude palm oil, two industry sources told Reuters.
Though an exemption of crude palm oil from the export curbs will be positive for global markets, the majority of Indonesia's palm exports are in the form of processed oils and remain affected by the ban.
There were still concerns that crude palm oil would also be added to the list of banned products, as it is raw material for RBD palm olein.
According to data from Indonesia's palm oil association (GAPKI) exports of processed CPO in 2021 stood at 25.7 million tonnes, or 75% of total exports of palm products. CPO exports were 2.74 million tonnes in 2021, or 7.98% of the shipments.
------------------------------------------------------------------
The news is too sketchy. No official details from government yet. Stay calm for more details to emerge.

JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): Indonesian government officials told palm oil companies on Monday that an export ban announced late last week would cover shipments of refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm olein but not crude palm oil, two industry sources told Reuters.
Though an exemption of crude palm oil from the export curbs will be positive for global markets, the majority of Indonesia's palm exports are in the form of processed oils and remain affected by the ban.
There were still concerns that crude palm oil would also be added to the list of banned products, as it is raw material for RBD palm olein.
According to data from Indonesia's palm oil association (GAPKI) exports of processed CPO in 2021 stood at 25.7 million tonnes, or 75% of total exports of palm products. CPO exports were 2.74 million tonnes in 2021, or 7.98% of the shipments.
------------------------------------------------------------------
The news is too sketchy. No official details from government yet. Better to stay calm for more details to emerge.

JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): Indonesian government officials told palm oil companies on Monday that an export ban announced late last week would cover shipments of refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm olein but not crude palm oil, two industry sources told Reuters.
Though an exemption of crude palm oil from the export curbs will be positive for global markets, the majority of Indonesia's palm exports are in the form of processed oils and remain affected by the ban.
There were still concerns that crude palm oil would also be added to the list of banned products, as it is raw material for RBD palm olein.
According to data from Indonesia's palm oil association (GAPKI) exports of processed CPO in 2021 stood at 25.7 million tonnes, or 75% of total exports of palm products. CPO exports were 2.74 million tonnes in 2021, or 7.98% of the shipments.
------------------------------------------------------------------
The news is too sketchy. No official details from government yet. Better to stay calm for more details to emerge.

Indonesia flip flop policy caused the problem today

@Markv572421, why are you so irritated to see people make money from plantation shares ? You need to see a psychiatrist.

Indonesia flip flop policy caused the correction. Need more clarity.

Indonesia flip flop policy caused the correction

Indonesia flip flop policy caused the correction

Indonesia flip flop decision caused the correction!

Some panic selling arising from 5% drop in China market and fear of Covid lockdown in Beijing and other cities.
Once the dust is settled, price will resume north again.

Some panic selling arising from 5% drop in China market and fear of Covid lockdown in Beijing and other cities.
Once the dust is settled, price will resume north again.

I think Steel will have its day soon.
The energy crisis and the Ukraine war will reduced global steel production and supply considerably. Supply reduction shall far exceed the demand destruction arising from inflation and economic slowdown.
The global largest steel producing countries are : (1) China, (2) EU, (3) India, (4) US, (5) Russia, ( 6) SKorea, (7) Turkey, (8) Brazil, ( 9) Iran, (10) taiwan, (11) Ukraine
But the 2nd (ie EU) and 4th ( ie US) largest producers don't produce enough for domestic use. US and EU are the world top and 2nd largest nett importers respectively.
Top nett exporters are : (1) Russia, (2) Japan, (3) SKorea, (4) Ukraine, (5) China, (6) India.
The top 2 nett importers need to import more to fill the production curtailment due to sanction and exorbitant energy cost. The top nett exporters Russia and ukraine are not going to fill the gap due to sanction and logistical issues. Other nett exporters like Japan, Skorea, China and India can't do much too.

Hold on to Bplant at least until Q2 results in Aug 2022. You will see fantastic return.

Time to buy steel share !

I am waiting for Taann to cross $10 .

Cepat should worth $2 . Based on robust CPO price , , It shall earn about 25sen per share for FY2022

MHC should worth more than $2 . It earned 21.36 sen per share in 2021. With robust CPO price , it shall make much
more this year

THplant shall cross $1.50 soon .

SOP share price should surpass $10 . It’s expected EPS for FY2022 should be around $1.20 based on average CPO price of $6,000.
With Ukraine war prolonged and Indonesia export control , average CPO price for FY 2022 shall exceed $6,000 .

Me too. I will continue to buy the dips .

SBO was Usd 1,836/mt , equivalents to MR7,966.
Amid serious shortage arising from Indonesia’s export ban, CPO shouldn’t at least be on par with SBO.

CPO spot reached RM8,076 on 2/3/22 when Indonesia intended to set the minimum qty for exporter to sell domestically from 20% to 30% .
How high can CPO go when it is a blanket export ban now?

I think Steel will have its day soon.
The energy crisis and the Ukraine war will reduced global steel production and supply considerably. Supply reduction shall far exceed the demand destruction arising from inflation and economic slowdown.
The global largest steel producing countries are : (1) China, (2) EU, (3) India, (4) US, (5) Russia, ( 6) SKorea, (7) Turkey, (8) Brazil, ( 9) Iran, (10) taiwan, (11) Ukraine
But the 2nd (ie EU) and 4th ( ie US) largest producers don't produce enough for domestic use. US and EU are the world top and 2nd largest nett importers respectively.
Top nett exporters are : (1) Russia, (2) Japan, (3) SKorea, (4) Ukraine, (5) China, (6) India.
The top 2 nett importers need to import more to fill the production curtailment due to sanction and exorbitant energy cost. The top nett exporters Russia and ukraine are not going to fill the gap due to war, sanction and logistical issues. Other nett exporters like Japan, Skorea, China and India are not keen to produce more .

I think Steel will have its day soon.
The energy crisis and the Ukraine war will reduced global steel production and supply considerably. Supply reduction shall far exceed the demand destruction arising from inflation and economic slowdown.
The global largest steel producing countries are : (1) China, (2) EU, (3) India, (4) US, (5) Russia, ( 6) SKorea, (7) Turkey, (8) Brazil, ( 9) Iran, (10) taiwan, (11) Ukraine
But the 2nd (ie EU) and 4th ( ie US) largest producers don't produce enough for domestic use. US and EU are the world top and 2nd largest nett importers respectively.
Top nett exporters are : (1) Russia, (2) Japan, (3) SKorea, (4) Ukraine, (5) China, (6) India.
The top 2 nett importers need to import more to fill the production curtailment due to sanction and exorbitant energy cost. The top nett exporters Russia and ukraine are not going to fill the gap due to sanction and logistical issues. Other nett exporters like Japan, Skorea, China and India can't do much too.

For FFB, there is seasonal peak and trough production pattern every year, it is only fair to compare yoy.

9. SOP

9. SOP

Many smart investors collecting this stock when there is price correction.

Park your money in energy, food commodities and metals to hedge hyperinflation.

The beneficiaries are 100% Malaysia based plantations such as Taann, SOp, swkpltn, MHC, cepat, HSplant, Kmloong etc.
Better stick to Malaysia based plantations . Indonesia frequent come with policy surprises and it’s no good for business.

Banning export shall flood the local Indonesian market with CPO and thus automatically drive local selling price for cooking oil , biodiesel and all consumer products containing palm oil to very low level. Jokowi is resolved to cushion the hardship face by his people due to hyperinflation and at tge same time reduce government subsidies in cooking oil and fuels. Such move , if it is prolonged is bad for plantations in Indonesia.

What Indonesia is doing is to flood the local market with CPO and thus drive local selling price for cooking oil , biodiesel and all consumer products containing palm oil to very low level. It’s aim to cushion the hardship caused by hyperinflation and reduce government subsidies in cooking oil and fuels. Such move , if it is prolonged is bad for plantations in Indonesia.

With export ban, Malaysian CPO will sell like hot cake. It is definately very good for the 100% Malaysia based plantations like Taann, SOP, SWKplant, cepat, MHC, Bplant .

Every $1,000 increase in CPO price, Cepat's NPAT is estimated to increase by $13-14 mil, equivalent to 4.2 to 4.5 sen per share.
Based on present developments, CPO is likely to average about $6,000 for FY 2022.

Brent crack spread for Apr is $17.80 and May $18.30 which is 5 years high! Hard to go wrong with PetronM.

Following this news, CPO spot will surge pass $7,000. Absolutely good news for Malaysia based plantations. Opportunity to add plantation share may surface on Monday if there is weakness arising from knee jerk reaction from DJ's 981 points plunge.

Brent crack spread Apr $17.80 and May $18.30 seem is at 5 year high ! With re-opening of travel sector, demand for refined petroleum products also high. As such, refinaries like HY and PetronM will do very very well.

I added some at 39sen too.